晨报 成材 成材：原料带动下 成材反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 30 日 逻辑：上周，全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平均产能利用率 54.5%，环 比下降 0.04 个百分点，同比上升 3.13 个百分点。247 家钢厂高炉炼铁 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 中信建投证券发布研究报告称，标普500在2月中旬触顶后， 先后经历3月上旬(DeepSeek冲击)和4月上 旬(关税冲击)两波大跌 。此后，美股开启修复进程，在贸易缓和、降息预期、经济韧性等利多催化 下， 于本周再创历史新高 。历史经验看，历次新高后，美股短期下跌概率并不会增加，但季节性、 经济、盈利估值等维度看， 8月前后仍不排除回撤，届时或提供更好的上车窗口。 中信建投主要观点如下： 一、美股创阶段性创下新高后，短期调整风险是否大幅增加?并不是，甚至恰恰相反 历史经验显示：新高后，美股的上涨空间确实被压制，但下跌风险影响不大，大跌概率反倒下降。 (1) 新高后1-3个月，上涨空间和大涨概率，均较其余时期明显下降，尤其在1个月内。 (2) 新高后1-3个月，下跌幅度较其余时期差异不大，但大跌5%以上的概率更低，开始出现5%以上回 撤的时点也更晚。 (3) 大跌20%以上+再创新高后，平均意义上，更可能出现短期休整，但实际案例的方差较大，继续大 涨和大跌的情况均存在。 整体看，并不用单纯因为新高，就对美股短期的走势产生较大担忧， 美股长期向上的趋势下，新高 已经逐步常态化 ; 因此，美股后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: Since mid - February 2025, the national live pig market has been in a stalemate between supply and demand, with prices adjusting narrowly within a range. After the Dragon Boat Festival, due to high - temperature weather, pork consumption entered a slack season, and pig enterprises faced great pressure, leading to a temporary decline in pig prices. The spot price briefly fell below 14 yuan/kg and then rebounded, indicating strong willingness for second - round fattening at low prices. In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. The piglet supply curve may intensify the expected supply pressure in the far - month. If pork consumption does not increase significantly, the upside of pig prices will be limited even in the peak season [7]. - **Strategy and Outlook**: There are still profit expectations for the live pig breeding industry in the second half of the year. However, the epidemic prevention pressure in the breeding end will increase in the third and fourth quarters. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly but the overall reduction will be limited. In July, the supply of the live pig market may continue to increase, and the spot price may continue to run weakly within the range. In the long term, prices are expected to improve. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Semi - annual Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Views**: The live pig market is in a supply - demand stalemate, with prices in a narrow - range adjustment. The inventory of reproductive sows is increasing, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to intensify. Most enterprises are in a state of small profits or cost - covering [7]. - **Strategy Views and Outlook**: The profit expectation for the second half of the year exists, but the epidemic prevention pressure increases. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly. The supply in July may increase, and the spot price may run weakly. The futures market depends on market sentiment. The short - term resistance level of the main contract is 14,000, and out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Since mid - February 2025, the live pig market has been in a stalemate, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - **Futures Spreads**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Standard and Fat Pig Prices**: Recently, the prices of standard and fat pigs have risen simultaneously. The supply of both has decreased, and the demand for second - round fattening has increased, with the price of standard pigs rising more than that of fat pigs, and the spread narrowing [31]. - **Piglet and Binary Sow Prices**: Since mid - May, piglet prices have been falling due to weak commodity pig market, past peak of piglet replenishment, and cautious attitude of retail farmers. In the second half of the year, the enthusiasm for piglet replenishment will weaken, and prices are expected to adjust weakly [35]. - **Culled Sow Prices**: The industry's willingness to actively eliminate production capacity is low. Culled sow prices were driven up by the increase in live pig prices this week and are expected to fluctuate and adjust [38] 3.3 Production Capacity - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. Enterprises' willingness to actively reduce production capacity is weak, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to increase [42]. - **Elimination Volume of Reproductive Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of reproductive sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In June, due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the elimination volume may be stable but difficult to decrease [49] 3.4 Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. In June, due to high - temperature weather and price decline, the inventory is expected to decrease [54]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month. In June, it is expected to increase due to factors such as farmers' willingness to sell [57]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, mainly due to the suspension of piglet replenishment; the inventory of pigs over 140 kg decreased due to farmers' willingness to sell; the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly due to the entry of second - round fattening pigs [60]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: This week, the average slaughter weight of live pigs decreased slightly due to farmers' pressure - barring and weight - increasing intentions [63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak. Slaughtering enterprises have a high fresh - sales rate and a low cold - storage rate, indicating cautious attitude towards inventory building. Domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [72]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh - sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate decreased due to weak downstream demand. The demand for frozen products is weak, and there is still passive storage of fresh products, leading to a slight increase in the cold - storage rate [75] - **Substitute Prices**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Profit of Live Pig Breeding and Slaughter**: The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode is 75.35 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 14.24 yuan. The average weekly loss of the mode of purchasing piglets has expanded to 58.39 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 4.97 yuan [88]. - **Slaughter Gross Profit and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.90, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. Next week, it is expected to increase slightly and stabilize [95]

下半年，如果忽略三季度，把宝压在四季度，可能导致全年崩盘，因此从现在就要把旺季当成淡季来干。管理层投资人要统帅思维，不必事必躬亲，不 能抱怨，要有打赢的信念。领导层的主要任务是做决策，制定战略；选择能打的将军，锻炼团队，让士兵活下来；鼓舞士气，及时兑现承诺。 2025年6月，某国有大型银行叫停购车分期贷款"高息高返"模式，不再受理相关购车分期进件。此前，已有多地银行业协会相继发布汽车金融业 务自律公约，严禁汽车经销商向客户推荐高佣金金融产品、诱导提前还款或误导贷款意愿。"高息高返"被叫停之后，原本以金融业务为重要盈利来 源的汽车经销商再受打击。 近日在山东泰安，东方众恩（北京）企业管理咨询有限公司执行董事夏浩与多家经销商集团代表就如何提升门店盈利水平进行了讨论，并发布了2025版 18项汽车经销商销售盈利标准。 五洲集团运营总裁陈东广直言，对于汽车经销商来说，当前的市场环境就像"泰山压顶"，大部分集团都面临盈利下滑、员工流失、库存高企等不利情 况，此时此刻只有通过学习来提升经营能力，才能做到稳如泰山。 在夏浩看来，汽车经销商投资人和管理者要想提升门店盈利水平，首先要做好规划，避免反复的月底冲量，要把月度销量任 ...

Group 1: Personal Pension System - The personal pension system in China has been fully implemented for six months, showcasing low-risk and stable returns as its core advantages, indicating significant investment potential in a multi-tiered pension system [2][6][8] - By the end of 2024, the total scale of the multi-tiered pension system in China was approximately 18.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.77%, and the participation rate in basic pension insurance reached 76.2% [6][7] - As of May 2025, the personal pension product matrix consists of four main categories: savings (45%), funds (29%), insurance (23%), and wealth management (3%), with leading institutions capturing market share through comprehensive product offerings [7][8] Group 2: North Exchange Market Strategy - The North Exchange has transitioned from "out of the circle" to "outstanding," experiencing market fluctuations and continuous policy improvements, with the North 50 index showing a remarkable increase of 36% since the beginning of 2025 [11][12] - Future expectations include ongoing policy support for the North Exchange, continuous supply of high-quality enterprises, and increased capital inflow, with a focus on scarcity investments as the strongest investment theme [12][14] - The merger and acquisition concept remains a hot investment topic in the North Exchange, with significant potential for companies that can leverage acquisitions for business diversification and optimization [25][26] Group 3: Renewable Energy Sector - As of May 2025, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, with solar and wind power installations hitting record highs [17][18] - The wind power sector saw a significant increase in installed capacity, with 46.3 GW added in the first five months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 134.2% [18][19] - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is expected to improve due to the stabilization of bidding prices and the reduction in the proportion of new product deliveries, which had previously pressured profit margins [21][24]

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 29 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 联系人 5 月电力装机与新疆内蒙 136 号文解读 重申看好风电设备 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 26 周周报（20250628） 投资要点： 电力：5 月新能源装机创历史 新疆内蒙两地 136 号文配套政策分化 （一）5 月新能源装机新增创历史，入市影响仍在延续 国家能源局于 2025 年 6 月 23 日发布 1-5 月全国电力工业统计数据：截至 5 月底， 全国累计发电装机容量 36.1 亿千瓦，同比增长 18.8%。其中，太阳能发电装机容量 10.8 亿千瓦，同比增长 5 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 28 日 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 风格表现监控 本周市场正收益风格集中在 Beta 风格上，负收益风格表现在 Value 风格上。一年动 量是中证全指成分股中，本周表现最好的因子。 因子表现监控 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 投资建议 风险提示 量化模型失效风险、 市场极端环境冲击。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 | 捕捉趋势的力量：基金动量刻画新范式： | 2025-06-12 | | --- | --- | | ——FOF 研究系列 | | | Neural ODE：时序动力系统重构下深度学 | 2025-05-27 | | 习因子挖掘模型：——因子选股系列之一 | | | 一六 | | | 广发中证全指电力公用事业 ETF 投资价值 | 2025-05-20 | | 分析：——FOF 系列研究之七十五 | | | DFQ-diversify ...

Group 1 - IGC Pharma, Inc. reported a quarterly loss of $0.01 per share, better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.02, representing an earnings surprise of +50.00% [1] - The company posted revenues of $0.33 million for the quarter ended March 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.45%, compared to revenues of $0.29 million a year ago [2] - IGC Pharma has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters [2] Group 2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 7.7% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 gained 4.4% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is -$0.03 on revenues of $0.33 million, and -$0.11 on revenues of $1.5 million for the current fiscal year [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Medical - Drugs is in the top 33% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - Dorian LPG has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements, suggesting that revisions in earnings estimates can lead to significant price changes [4][6]. - The recent upgrade reflects an improvement in Dorian LPG's underlying business, which is expected to drive the stock price higher as investors respond positively to the earnings outlook [5][10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending March 2026, Dorian LPG is projected to earn $2.95 per share, consistent with the previous year's figure [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dorian LPG has increased by 23.4%, indicating a strong upward trend in earnings expectations [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system categorizes stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, with only the top 5% receiving a "Strong Buy" rating, highlighting Dorian LPG's strong position in this regard [9][10]. - Historically, Zacks Rank 1 stocks have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988, underscoring the effectiveness of the rating system in identifying high-potential investments [7].

Core Viewpoint - LifeStance Health Group (LFST) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Ratings - The Zacks rating system is primarily based on a company's changing earnings picture, tracking the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS from sell-side analysts [2]. - A strong correlation exists between changes in earnings estimates and near-term stock price movements, making the Zacks rating system beneficial for investors [3][5]. Impact of Institutional Investors - Institutional investors utilize earnings estimates to determine the fair value of a company's shares, leading to stock price movements based on their buying or selling activities [5]. Business Improvement Indicators - The rising earnings estimates for LifeStance Health indicate an improvement in the company's underlying business, which is expected to positively influence its stock price [6]. Importance of Earnings Estimate Revisions - Empirical research supports the correlation between earnings estimate revisions and stock movements, highlighting the importance of tracking these revisions for investment decisions [7]. Zacks Rank System Performance - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. Specific Earnings Estimates for LifeStance Health - LifeStance Health is projected to earn -$0.06 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, with no year-over-year change, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 45% over the past three months [9]. Overall Rating System Characteristics - The Zacks rating system maintains a balanced distribution of "buy" and "sell" ratings across its universe of over 4,000 stocks, with only the top 5% receiving a "Strong Buy" rating [10][11].