资金流动数据也为这一趋势提供了佐证。根据美国存管信托与结算公司的最新名义交易量数据，过去两 周内，投资者对主要货币对中美元贬值风险的敞口需求有所增加，这表明市场普遍看空美元的情绪正在 回归。 值得注意的是，波动率偏度指标已经从6月的反弹期间更为明确地转向负值，这进一步表明期权交易者 正在为美元下行趋势的重启做准备。 从技术分析的角度来看，美元仍然处于看跌趋势的通道之中。尽管近期出现了一定程度的反弹，但这一 反弹动能与今年的整体模式相符，即在大约2%的涨幅后逐渐减弱。此次反弹再次受阻于55日移动均 线，这一关键阻力位多次成为价格上升的天花板。持续无法突破这一水平进一步强化了市场对美元走强 仅是暂时调整的看法，而非新一轮上涨趋势的开始。 来源：http://www.cnu.com.cn/cellphone/202507/105926.html 外汇期权市场动态揭示了美元可能面临的新一轮贬值压力，尤其是在即将步入8月之际，多重风险因素 正悄然聚集，可能对美元汇率构成不利影响。 近期，彭博美元即期指数的一个关键市场情绪指标——1个月风险逆转指标，自两周以来首次跌入负值 区间，这一转变预示着市场参与者开始倾向于为美元潜 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The trade war between the US and EU is intensifying, with Trump threatening to impose tariffs of up to 30% on EU products starting August 1, which has raised concerns about the potential breakdown of trade negotiations and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have risen to 59%, with October rate cut expectations fully priced in, contributing to gold's appeal amid policy uncertainty [3] - Key events to watch include speeches from Bank of England officials and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which may influence market sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The daily trend for gold is currently characterized as "strongly bullish," with a significant upward movement observed on Monday, indicating short-term bullish momentum [4] - Key support levels identified are 3365-3360 and 3345, which are critical for maintaining the bullish trend [4][5] - Resistance levels are noted at 3420 and 3428, with a breakthrough of these levels potentially opening up further upside for gold prices [5][6] Short-Term Outlook - The four-hour analysis confirms a continuation of the bullish trend, with critical support at 3377-3374, which needs to hold for the bullish momentum to persist [8] - The first resistance level to monitor is around 3408-3410, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [8] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases and events to monitor include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting minutes, UK economic stability report discussions, and US manufacturing index data [9]

Group 1 - Fitch Ratings downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and expectations of high interest rates persisting for a long time [1] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the recent tax and spending legislation, known as the "Big Beautiful" tax law, will increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [1] - The European Union is preparing a response plan for a potential failure to reach a trade agreement with the U.S., which may include unprecedented use of "anti-coercion tools" [1] Group 2 - The European Commission is drafting a new law requiring large companies and car rental firms to fully transition to electric vehicle procurement by 2030, potentially affecting about 60% of new car sales in the EU, covering a market size of approximately 6.4 million vehicles per year [2] - Hungary's Foreign Minister stated that Europe’s energy prices are several times higher than other countries due to the EU's forced decoupling from Russian energy, suggesting that introducing more energy sources and building additional transport routes could address this issue [2] - Goldman Sachs reported that hedge funds experienced the largest net buying spree in global industrial stocks in five years, with the weekly net inflow ranking as the second highest since records began in 2016 [2] Group 3 - U.S. major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.04%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reached all-time highs, up 0.14% and 0.38% respectively [3] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.55% at $3,410.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.02% at $39.24 per ounce [3] - International oil prices slightly declined, with WTI crude oil down 0.41% at $65.78 per barrel and Brent crude oil down 0.36% at $69.03 per barrel [3] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.64% to 97.83, with most non-U.S. currencies appreciating, including the euro up 0.60% to 1.1696 and the British pound up 0.61% to 1.3492 [4]

Economic Outlook - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed optimism about inflation while pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1][4] - US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that August 1 is the deadline for countries to start paying tariffs, but negotiations can continue afterward [4][5] Stock Market Performance - Following the statements from government officials, US stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.49%, S&P 500 up 0.60%, and Nasdaq up 0.75%, surpassing the 21,000-point mark for the first time [1][2] Earnings Reports - Major US companies are set to release earnings reports this week, with analysts generally optimistic, although there are warnings about low investor patience for underperforming results [2][7] - 83% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded expectations, above the five-year average of 78% [6] Tariff Policy - Lutnick stated that smaller countries will face a baseline tariff of 10%, while larger economies must either open their markets or pay reasonable tariffs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bensent regarding inflation and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, alongside the confirmation of tariff deadlines by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2][5][7]. Economic Indicators - On July 21, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.49% to 44,561.55, the S&P 500 up 0.60% to 6,334.38, and the Nasdaq up 0.75% to 21,052.57, marking a significant milestone by surpassing 21,000 points [2][3]. Federal Reserve Scrutiny - Bensent suggested a review of the Federal Reserve's performance, questioning whether it has fulfilled its responsibilities effectively, especially in light of recent criticisms and rumors regarding potential leadership changes [5][6]. Tariff Deadlines - Lutnick announced that August 1 is the final deadline for countries to start paying tariffs, emphasizing that negotiations can continue post-deadline, but new tariff rates will take effect [7][8]. Corporate Earnings Outlook - Major U.S. companies are set to report earnings, with analysts expressing optimism despite warnings about low investor patience for underperforming results. The expected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in Q2 has been adjusted from slightly below 5% to 5.6% [10][11]. Market Reactions - Following the announcements from Bensent and Lutnick, the market showed positive reactions, but analysts caution that any earnings reports falling short of expectations could lead to significant volatility and investor backlash [11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing policy divergence, with market expectations for a September rate cut at 56.2%, anticipating a 25 basis point reduction, while 41.2% believe rates will remain unchanged [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views, with some adopting a hawkish stance and others leaning towards a rate cut within the year [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has emerged as a leading internal candidate to succeed Powell as chairman, particularly given his clear support for rate cuts this year [3] Group 2 - Gold has been fluctuating within the range of 3375 to 3310, showing weak continuation in both bullish and bearish trends, with significant volatility observed [5] - After failing to break through the 3375 level, gold has experienced a substantial pullback to the support level of 3310, and is currently rebounding towards the 3370 mark [5] - The strategy for gold trading includes buying near 3330 with a target of 3345-3353 and selling near 3370 with a target of 3355-3345, indicating a cautious approach to market movements [6] Group 3 - Crude oil has faced pressure at the high of 78, dropping to the support level of 66, and has been in a weak consolidation phase below 70 [8] - There are signs of bottoming out within the 65-70 range, but confirmation of a reversal will require a breakout above the 70 level [8] - The current strategy suggests trading within the 66-70 range, with clear breakout points to follow for further trading decisions [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend [3][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the price of the main contract AL2508 of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated between around 77,700 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 78,580 yuan/ton. The LME copper futures price also showed a fluctuating trend, with the contract price ranging from 9,575 - 9,720 US dollars/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,635 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 78,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 77,990 yuan/ton, 77,940 yuan/ton, 78,090 yuan/ton, and 78,050 yuan/ton respectively. The electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around an increase of 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of July 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.23 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.32 cents/pound. As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.2% [21]. - **Automobile Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As of May 2025, the monthly automobile production in China was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [26]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of July 18, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 84,556 tons, an increase of 3,094 tons from the previous week. As of July 17, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 122,150 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.52%. As of July 17, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 241,814 tons, an increase of 2,379 tons from the previous trading day. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 24,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [31]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of 2025 was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, with the economy operating generally smoothly. The national consumer price (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the national industrial producer price decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In June, it decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The contradiction between the Federal Reserve and the US government has intensified, and the policy shift during the last year of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term is worthy of attention. The copper smelting processing fee is stable but still at a historical low. Refined copper production continues to grow rapidly. The year - on - year growth rate of copper product output has accelerated, automobile production continues to increase year - on - year, and copper consumption remains strong. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [2][41].

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,356 to $3,361 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.22% to 0.10% [1][2] - Recent economic data, including strong retail sales (+0.6%) and unemployment claims (221,000), have created a tug-of-war in the gold market, balancing short-term economic strength against long-term inflation concerns [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has advised against attempting to dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating potential for two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials are divided on interest rate policy, with some advocating for a rate cut while others emphasize the importance of maintaining a restrictive stance [2] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including consumer confidence and inflation expectations, which will influence gold prices [2] - Despite a recent decline in the dollar, expectations for delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are limiting further declines in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Gold ETF funds have seen a recent increase of 0.37%, with significant net inflows of 131 million yuan over the past four days [3] - The performance of gold prices is expected to stabilize as U.S. debt pressures ease, with traditional frameworks of real interest rates driving gold price fluctuations [4] - Recent economic indicators, such as the June CPI data and manufacturing indices, suggest resilience in the U.S. economy, which may limit upward trends in gold prices [4] Group 4 - Gold ETFs and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment options, allowing for T+0 trading and serving as a hedge against economic downturns [5]

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - In the first half of the year, copper prices experienced two significant upward trends, starting with a rise due to a weakening US dollar, followed by a sharp decline influenced by tariff policies, and then a recovery to stabilize around 78,500 yuan/ton [1] - The market is expected to focus on macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy, with limited negative impact from tariff policies on the macro market [2] Group 2: Supply and Refining Dynamics - New copper mines such as Sierra Gorda and Toromocho are set to commence production mid-year, but the global supply of copper concentrate remains tight [3] - Domestic smelting plants are anticipated to undergo a peak maintenance period from September to November, which will likely tighten the domestic spot market and elevate copper prices [3] Group 3: End-User Consumption - Cable manufacturing has shown a recovery in operating rates, but rising copper prices are exerting production pressure on these companies [4] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see a seasonal production increase in the second half of the year, while the automotive sector is projected to experience a production boost starting in July [4] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be driven by fundamentals, with supply and demand exhibiting a synergistic effect, leading to a potential upward trend [4]

Summary of Morgan Stanley US Economics Outlook Update Industry Overview - **Industry**: US Economy - **Focus**: Economic outlook for 2025-2026, including growth, inflation, fiscal policy, trade, and immigration impacts Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Expectations**: - Slow growth projected with real GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 [6][7][18] - Baseline scenario indicates firm inflation with inflation peaking in Q3 2025 [6][7] 2. **Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy**: - Inflation expected to remain elevated, with core PCE inflation at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026 [6][18] - Federal Reserve likely to hold rates steady in 2025, with cuts starting in March 2026 [6][11] 3. **Fiscal Policy Impact**: - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is anticipated to widen the deficit in 2026 but may provide a growth impulse of 0.4 percentage points to GDP [3][18] - Fiscal multipliers from the OBBBA are higher than previously expected, potentially boosting demand [3][13] 4. **Trade and Tariff Effects**: - Effective tariff rates projected to rise to approximately 16-17% under the baseline scenario, with potential increases to 23% in a mild recession scenario [9][16] - Recent trade announcements have increased downside risks to the economic outlook, with a 40% probability of a downside scenario [6][8][18] 5. **Immigration Policy**: - Immigration restrictions are expected to slow potential growth to 1.5%, with net immigration dropping significantly from 2.9 million in 2024 to 300,000 in 2025 [9][18] - Expanded legal immigration could help maintain potential growth at 2.0% in alternative scenarios [3][18] 6. **Alternate Scenarios**: - **Demand Upside**: Stronger fiscal multipliers could lead to higher growth and prolonged elevated inflation, with no Fed cuts in 2025 or 2026 [13][18] - **Supply Upside**: De-escalation in trade and immigration policies could result in faster growth and less aggressive Fed cuts [14][18] - **Mild Recession**: A trade shock could lead to a GDP decline of 1.2% peak-to-trough, with a significant rise in effective tariff rates [16][18] Other Important Content 1. **Unemployment Rate Projections**: - Unemployment rate expected to finish 2025 at 4.2% and 2026 at 3.8% under the baseline scenario [6][18] 2. **Consumer Confidence and Spending**: - Consumer confidence is projected to rebound but remains limited due to high inflation and uncertainty [18] - Consumer spending growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2025 before picking up to 1.6% in 2026 [18] 3. **Investment Trends**: - Nonresidential fixed investment is expected to rise by 4.6% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, driven by fiscal policy and improved sentiment [18] 4. **Credit Conditions**: - Credit conditions are expected to tighten further due to high policy rates and elevated uncertainty, with a potential loosening in 2026 [18] 5. **Productivity Growth**: - Productivity growth is anticipated to bounce back in 2026 after slowing in 2025 [18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the US economic outlook as presented in the Morgan Stanley report, highlighting the interplay between fiscal policy, trade dynamics, and macroeconomic indicators.