Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced a decline today, with Ji Hai Resources down 5.48% at HKD 1.38, Lingbao Gold down 3.34% at HKD 15.61, China Silver Group down 3.03% at HKD 0.64, and Zijin Gold International down 2.2% at HKD 137.6 [2] - The Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements regarding future interest rate cuts, dampening market expectations for a December rate cut [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the cancellation of the October non-farm payroll report, with the November employment report now scheduled for December 16, which will include estimates for October's employment data [2] Group 2 - Market attention is focused on the upcoming September non-farm payroll report to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [2] - Despite increased uncertainty regarding a potential December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, precious metals are expected to face short-term pressure, while long-term upward trends remain intact due to improving dollar liquidity and concerns over the Fed's independence [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be in short - term weak oscillation, mid - term high - level oscillation, and long - term step - up trend. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1][6] - For both gold and silver, it is recommended that conservative investors wait and watch, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high, and should manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals faced resistance and pressure. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.75%. [1] - **Core Logic** - **Short - term Hedging**: The results of the China - US talks have been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment situation is weakening, inflation is moderate, Fed officials are hawkish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been adjusted. [1] - **Hedging Attribute**: The results and consensus of China - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting showed that there were serious differences among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials believed it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025. The number of continuing jobless claims in the US has soared, and builder confidence has been low for 19 consecutive months. More Fed policymakers are cautious about a December interest rate cut. The market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has dropped to around 30%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strong. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is weakly oscillating, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices. [1] - **Data** - **Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4078.30 per ounce, up 0.27% from the previous day and down 2.93% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4126.95 per ounce, up 1.63% from the previous day and down 0.24% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 935.46 yuan per gram, down 0.16% from the previous day and down 2.68% from the previous week; Gold T + D closed at 930.00 yuan per gram, down 0.46% from the previous day and down 2.99% from the previous week. [2] - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 493,748 lots; Shanghai Gold's main contract positions increased by 85.01% from the previous day and 23.36% from the previous week; Gold TD positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day and 3.07% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold inventory was 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week. [2] - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 net long positions of futures companies in Shanghai Gold totaled 89,446 lots, a decrease of 1,166 lots; the top 10 net short positions totaled 17,856 lots, a decrease of 568 lots. [4] 3.2 Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased. [6] - **Data** - **Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $51.07 per ounce, up 1.04% from the previous day and down 4.07% from the previous week; London silver closed at $52.20 per ounce, up 3.78% from the previous day and up 1.29% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 12,050.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.81% from the previous day and down 4.27% from the previous week; Silver T + D closed at 12,030.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.99% from the previous day and down 4.24% from the previous week. [7] - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 163,837 lots; Shanghai Silver's main contract positions increased by 2.76% from the previous day and 9.24% from the previous week; Silver TD positions increased by 0.28% from the previous day and 1.04% from the previous week. LBMA silver inventory was 26,255 tons, up 6.81% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory was 14,385 tons, down 3.28% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver inventory was 535 tons, down 8.38% from the previous week; Silver inventory in the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 775 tons, down 5.80% from the previous week; the total visible inventory was 41,991 tons, down 1.36% from the previous week. [7] - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 net long positions of futures companies in Shanghai Silver totaled 127,521 lots, a decrease of 1,753 lots; the top 10 net short positions totaled 43,645 lots, an increase of 333 lots. [8] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute** - **Interest Rates**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, all down 0.25% from the previous value. [9] - **Other Indicators**: The Fed's total assets are $6631.098 billion, up $74.55 billion from the previous value; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.07% from the previous value; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.44%, up 0.41% from the previous day and 1.67% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 99.60, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.12% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and down 5.41% from the previous week. [9] - **Geopolitical and Market Indicators** - **Hedging Attribute**: The geopolitical risk index is 90.76, down 1.74% from the previous week; the VIX index is 23.66, down 4.17% from the previous day and up 35.12% from the previous week. [12] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is 299.24, down 1.36% from the previous day and 1.03% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1109, up 0.01% from the previous week. [12] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2304.46 tons, up 0.09% from the previous value; the US's are 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's are 36362.76 tons, unchanged. [11][12] - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves and Gold - to - Reserves Ratio**: The US dollar accounts for 57.80% of IMF foreign exchange reserves, up 0.88% from the previous value; the euro accounts for 19.83%, down 0.99%; the RMB accounts for 2.18%, down 0.04%. The global gold - to - foreign - exchange - reserves ratio is 22.18%, up 4.11% from the previous value; China's is 6.78%, up 4.40%; the US's is 78.64%, up 0.86%. [12]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 中日紧张形势推高东亚地缘政治风险和贵金属的避险需求，而高频数据显示 联邦政府停摆事件对美国就业市场带来较大冲击，美联储降息预期重新升温进一 步支持贵金属价格，19 日亚盘时段伦敦黄金反弹至 4100 美元/盎司附近。我们判 断短期内美联储放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利空因素， 与地缘政治风险上升和国际贸易货币体系加速重组等利多因素相平衡，伦敦黄金 需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突破 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index has led to a decline in international gold prices, with spot and futures prices dropping to around $4070 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 14:25, gold-related ETFs showed weakness, with 华夏黄金ETF (518850) down 0.58%, 有色金属ETF基金 (516650) down 0.87%, and 黄金股ETF (159562) down 0.94% [1] - The 华夏黄金ETF (518850) has seen significant capital inflow, accumulating over 983 million yuan in net inflows from October 30 to November 19 over 15 trading days [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials, which have reduced market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - The upcoming release of the September US non-farm payroll data and subsequent economic indicators will directly impact market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, influencing the short-term trend of precious metals [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term uncertainties regarding the prospects for interest rate cuts in December, central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand are expected to support a long-term upward trend in precious metal prices [1] - Short-term market adjustments may continue, with a focus on the 60-day moving average for potential rebounds [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metals rebounded on Wednesday, with silver showing greater elasticity. Due to the upcoming release of important earnings reports of US stocks and key data such as the Fed's October meeting minutes and non - farm payroll data, and the continuous cooling of the labor market, the market may have some anticipatory trading. Attention should be paid to the release of this week's data [1][3]. - In the long - term, the bullish trend of precious metals remains. The core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, such as excessive debt issuance and de - globalization, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Key Information - The Fed will release its October meeting minutes on Thursday at 3:00 am. There is increasing uncertainty among investors about the direction of US interest rates. Fed officials have significant differences on whether it is appropriate to further ease policy before the end of the year. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December is only 51% [2]. - The US trade deficit in August was $59.6 billion, better than the expected deficit of $61 billion. Exports were $280.8 billion, and imports were $340.4 billion [2]. - The eurozone's October CPI final value increased by 2.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The core CPI final value increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [2]. b. Price Logic - In the short - term, precious metals rebounded on Wednesday, with silver showing greater elasticity. Market caution may prevail before the release of important US stock earnings reports. Based on the cooling labor market, anticipatory trading may occur, and attention should be paid to data releases this week [1][3]. - In the long - term, the bullish trend of precious metals remains. Gold is a hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. The global economic shift in 2026 is favorable for silver's elasticity. The expected range for London gold this week is [3800, 4200] dollars per ounce, and for London silver is [46, 53] dollars per ounce [3]. c. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2249.04, up 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2553.16, up 0.73%; the industrial products index was 2216.05, up 0.32%; the PPI commodity index was 1337.81, up 0.22% [42]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on November 19, 2025, had a daily increase of 2.58%, a 5 - day decline of 2.84%, a 1 - month increase of 0.78%, and a year - to - date increase of 51.31% [43].

Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced a decline, with notable drops including Jihai Resources down 5.48% to HKD 1.38, Lingbao Gold down 3.34% to HKD 15.61, China Silver Group down 3.03% to HKD 0.64, and Zijin Mining International down 2.2% to HKD 137.6 [1] - The Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements regarding future interest rate cuts, cooling market expectations for a December rate cut [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the cancellation of the October non-farm payroll report, with the November employment report now scheduled for December 16, which will include estimates for October's employment data [1] Group 2 - Market attention is focused on the upcoming September non-farm payroll report, with expectations that even if the Fed's rate cut becomes more variable in December, precious metals may face short-term pressure [1] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to improve dollar liquidity, while long-term interest rates in major global economies remain high, leading to concerns about the Fed's independence and maintaining the long-term upward logic for precious metals [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. However, in the short - term, the unclear prospects of a December interest rate cut will lead to continued fluctuations and adjustments, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and dips are considered opportunities to buy. Resistance and support levels are provided for London gold and silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - On Wednesday, precious metal prices fluctuated slightly higher. Although NVIDIA's earnings report was slightly higher than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations declined. The VIX of US stocks and the MOVE index of US bonds both rose, and Bitcoin continued to fall, increasing the demand for precious metals and US dollars as a hedge. The market is focused on the US September non - farm payrolls report to be released on Thursday night. The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences, with many thinking it inappropriate to cut rates in December. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4078.3 per ounce (+0.29%), and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [1]. 3.2降息预期与基金持仓 - Interest rate cut expectations have declined, with only a 30% probability of a December rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 67.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 32.8%. Long - term fund positions: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.29 tons to 1043.72 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 8.46 tons to 15226.88 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16 tons to 547.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 47.7 tons to 774.7 tons as of the week ending November 14 [2]. 3.3本周关注 - In terms of data, focus on the补发 of US government data after the restart, especially the US September non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, several Fed officials will give speeches on Friday [3]. 3.4贵金属期现价格表 - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [5]. 3.5库存持仓表 - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [13]. 3.6股债商汇总览 - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the RMB, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread [19].

贵金属日报 2025-11-20 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.53 %，报 935.42 元/克，沪银涨 0.63 %，报 12035.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4090.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 51.21 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.13%，美元指数报 100.10 ； 美联储票委表态和会议纪要均呈现鹰派倾向，贵金属价格昨夜冲高回落，今晨英伟达所公布的 财报超市场预期提升风偏，银价表现强于黄金。 今日凌晨公布的美联储会议纪要显示，FOMC 成员在后续利率路径方面产生了重大的分歧，数位 联储官员（包含不具备投票权的部分地方联储主席）反对本次降息决定，同时有部分支持降息 的官员表示可以接受利率不变。"许多"联储成员认为在 12 月进行降息操作缺乏依据，且这部 分官员的数量超过了认为在 12 月议息会议中降息是"合适"的官员数量。 联储主席热门候选人，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示失业率略高于均衡 ...

Group 1 - The spot price of gold increased by 1.14%, reaching $4,113.67 per ounce [1] - The spot price of silver rose by 3%, reaching $52.17 per ounce [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from a low level, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.09% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 2.19%. The short - term outlook for precious metals is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with a mid - term high - level consolidation and a long - term step - up trend. The core logic includes short - term risk aversion due to geopolitical risks and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the influence of factors from risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes [3]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly, and the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold - **Price Performance**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed up 2.19%, and international and domestic gold prices showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex gold主力合约收盘价 was $4067.40 per ounce, up $22.30 (0.55%) from the previous day and down $65.80 (-1.59%) from the previous week [3][4]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term risk aversion: The outcome of the China - US talks was priced in, but geopolitical risks remained. The US employment weakened and inflation was moderate, and Fed officials were hawkish, leading to a callback in interest - rate cut expectations. Risk - aversion attribute: There were still geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. Monetary attribute: The number of continued unemployment claims in the US soared, and builder confidence was low. More Fed policymakers were cautious about a December interest - rate cut. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market awaited more economic data. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index was volatile and weak, and the depreciation of the RMB was beneficial to domestic prices [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [4]. 2. Silver - **Price Performance**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed up 2.19%, and international and domestic silver prices also had different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex silver主力合约收盘价 was $50.54 per ounce, up $0.49 (0.98%) from the previous day and down $0.54 (-1.05%) from the previous week [3][8]. - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. On the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly, and the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [7]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8]. 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit and the discount rate were both 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets were $66310.98 billion, up $74.55 billion (0.00%). Other data such as M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and various interest - rate spreads also showed different changes [10][12]. - **Risk - Aversion Attribute Data**: The geopolitical risk index was 90.76, up 6.72 (7.99%), and the VIX index was 24.69, up 2.31 (10.32%) [14]. - **Commodity Attribute Data**: The CRB commodity index was 303.36, up 1.72 (0.57%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1106 [14].