Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued a set of policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption, which includes 19 tasks across five areas, benefiting the general public [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy measures support kindergartens to enroll children aged 2-3, explore spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, and extend operating hours for popular cultural and tourist venues [1] - The measures also encourage local governments to host public sports events and facilitate the issuance of five-year multiple-entry visas for eligible foreign visitors [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to select around 50 pilot cities with large populations and strong development potential to explore new consumption models through competitive evaluation [2] Group 2: Cultural and Tourism Consumption - Cultural and tourism consumption is highlighted as a significant component of service consumption, with initiatives to extend operating hours for popular venues and promote "no reservation" policies [3] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism aims to enhance tourism service quality and consumer experience, focusing on industrial, red, and rural tourism, as well as developing new consumption hotspots [3] - The promotion of international tourism includes initiatives like "Hello! China" and "Happy Spring Festival" to attract more foreign tourists, along with the establishment of tax refund stores in tourist areas [4] Group 3: National Consumption Month - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, over 3.3 billion yuan in consumption subsidies will be distributed across various regions to stimulate cultural and tourism consumption [5] - The "Cultural and Tourism Consumption Month" will feature over 25,000 events, including concerts, music festivals, and exhibitions, to enhance consumer engagement [6] - Local governments will implement unique cultural and tourism activities, with initiatives like "Follow the Performance to Travel" and "Museum Night" to promote regional tourism [6]

杨虹表示，今年以来，人民银行出台多项政策，指导金融机构完善内部业务流程，创新支持消费的产品 和服务，聚焦食、住、行、游、购、娱等重点消费领域，从供需两端特别是从供给端发力，扩大高质量 信贷供给，加大对消费行业经营主体的首贷、续贷、信用贷、中长期贷款支持力度，强化金融支持提振 和扩大消费的促进作用。 人民网北京9月17日电 (记者罗知之)国务院新闻办公室于今日举行新闻发布会，介绍扩大服务消费有关 政策措施。 中国人民银行信贷市场司负责人杨虹在会上介绍，截至7月末，全国服务消费重点领域贷款 余额2.79万亿元，同比增长5.3%，比年初新增1642亿元，前7个月的新增贷款比去年全年新增贷款还要 多630亿元。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The A - share major indices closed generally higher. The market is in the macro - data verification stage during the performance and policy vacuum period. Although the economic data in August was still under pressure, the previous financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. With the expected reflection of this in subsequent economic data and the Fed's potential interest - rate cut providing room for domestic policy easing, stock indices still have long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Quotes - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) closed at 4553.2, up 36.2; IH (2509) at 2956.2, up 5.8; IC (2509) at 7252.4, up 90.4; IM (2509) at 7547.0, up 93.0. The prices of the corresponding next - main contracts also showed increases or decreases [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Seasonal - to - Current Spreads**: The spreads between current - season and current - month contracts, and next - season and current - month contracts also had different trends [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, and the basis of the corresponding futures contracts also changed [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 24,029.24 billion yuan, up 358.55 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 23,926.52 billion yuan, up 226.53 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume was 2876.22 billion yuan, up 3.16 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks decreased, Shibor increased, and the closing prices and implied volatilities of call and put options of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall strength - weakness analysis of the A - share market showed that the technical aspect weakened, while the capital aspect strengthened [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The nine - department policy on expanding service consumption proposed 19 measures in five aspects, including promoting service - consumption seasons and expanding opening - up in certain fields [2]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing by 2.1% year - on - year after inflation adjustment [2]. 3.6 Key Events - The Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will announce their interest - rate decisions on September 18 and 19 [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of price competition on the profitability of the company, with a significant decline in net profit in Q2 2025 compared to the previous year [6][7] - The company has adjusted its annual business volume guidance downwards due to a new economic and competitive landscape, indicating a focus on quality over quantity [6][9] - The report projects a gradual recovery in profitability in the second half of 2025 as the competitive environment stabilizes [8][9] Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, but its market share decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [6] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 2.053 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.8% [6] - The average revenue per package decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased competitive pricing pressures [7][8] Cost Structure - The company's core cost per package increased by 8.6% year-on-year to 0.89 yuan, with transportation costs decreasing slightly while other costs rose significantly [7][8] - The report notes that the increase in costs is largely attributed to a higher proportion of key account (KA) customers, which also contributed to a slight increase in revenue per package [8] Future Outlook - The company expects a recovery in profitability in the second half of 2025 as it shifts its strategic focus to quality and adjusts its incentive structures [8][9] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the expansion of service consumption policies in China, emphasizing the steady growth of the consumer market and the optimization of consumption structure [1] - The Vice Minister of Commerce, Sheng Qiuping, noted that service consumption has become a significant driving force for the growth of the consumer market in recent years [1]

宏观日报 | 2025-09-17 关注下游扩大服务消费政策 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）9月16日，2025腾讯全球数字生态大会在深圳举行，会上公布多项AI技术和产品最新进展，并宣布 全面开放腾讯AI落地能力及优势场景。面对各界关注的算力问题，腾讯集团副总裁、腾讯云总裁邱跃鹏宣布，目 前腾讯已经全面适配主流的国产芯片，并积极参与和回馈开源社区。与此同时，软硬件协同全栈优化是腾讯云的 长期战略投入，通过异构计算平台的软件能力，整合不同类型的芯片对外提供高性价比的AI算力。 服务行业： 1）商务部等9部门9月16日对外发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面19条举措，包 括开展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动；支持优质消费资源与知名IP跨界合作；因地制宜延长热门文博场馆、景区营 业时间，优化预约方式，鼓励推行免预约；优化学生假期安排，完善配套政策等。增加优质服务供给，更好满足 人民群众多样化服务消费需求。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）黑色：玻璃价格回落，煤炭库存升高。2）农业：鸡蛋价格回升超10%。 中游：1）化工：PX、PTA开工率近期回升。 下游：1）地产：一、二、三 ...

人民财讯9月17日电，9月17日，商务部服贸司司长孔德军在国新办新闻发布会上表示，初步统计，围绕 建立服务消费"1+N"的政策体系，相关部门目前已经出台了30多项政策。孔德军指出，接下来商务部还 将出台住宿业高质量发展、铁路与旅游融合发展等一系列特色文件，形成政策组合拳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes enhancing service supply quality and expansion through innovation, improved service levels, and a vibrant market environment [1] Group 1: Promoting Innovation - The focus is on encouraging enterprises to innovate, particularly through the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative, which aims to accelerate AI applications in service consumption [1] - There is an emphasis on integrating various consumption sectors, including online and offline services, travel, culture, and sports, to create new consumption scenarios and experiences [1] Group 2: Enhancing Service Quality - The initiative includes building training bases supported by vocational schools and leading enterprises to increase the supply of high-skilled service talent [1] - A "Credit+" project will be implemented in key areas such as childcare, elderly care, housekeeping, and tourism to establish a reliable incentive and penalty mechanism for consumers [1] Group 3: Creating a Vibrant Market - The commission aims to promote the construction of a unified market by removing market access barriers, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - There will be ongoing communication and problem-solving mechanisms with private enterprises to address their concerns and support their healthy development [1]

Economic Growth Analysis - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in July[5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease from 3.7% in the previous month[5] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of only 0.5%, down from 1.6% in July[5] Investment and Consumption Trends - The decline in investment was more significant than expected, with fixed asset investment down by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year[5] - Manufacturing investment is expected to remain low, which may improve profit margins in the long run[5] - Service sector performance outpaced goods, with the service production index rising by 5.6% year-on-year in August[5] Structural Adjustments and Future Outlook - The slowdown in growth is seen as manageable, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation rather than a decline in investment confidence[5] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is underway, with high-tech industries showing a 4.1 percentage point increase in added value compared to the overall sector[5] - Future consumer spending is expected to shift towards services, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing consumer confidence[5]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a notification outlining 19 measures to expand service consumption, indicating a shift from strategic positioning to practical implementation [1] - The measures include exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, increasing service consumption time for tourism, and supporting cross-industry IP cooperation and the introduction of foreign sports events [1] - Analysts believe that the combination of clear subsidy directions and financial support will stimulate the IP economy, event economy, and AI+ consumption, while also providing subsidies to residents from the demand side and reducing costs and improving efficiency from the supply side [1] Industry Analysis - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index includes a range of new consumption leaders, with service-oriented consumption accounting for over 50%, covering sectors such as cultural tourism, dining, sports goods, medical beauty, and freshly brewed tea [1] - The current rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the index is 22 times, positioned at the 24.5% percentile since its launch in 2020, indicating emerging investment value [1] - The E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (513070) has the lowest management fee rate of 0.15% per year among stock ETFs and supports T+0 trading, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on service consumption investments [1]