Core Viewpoint - The OECD report indicates that Trump's confrontational trade policies have led to a global economic downturn, with the U.S. experiencing the most severe impact [1]. Economic Growth Forecast - The OECD has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2024 from 3.3% to 2.9%, with the U.S. growth rate significantly reduced from 2.8% to 1.6% [1][2]. - Other regions' forecasts include Euro area at 1.0%, Japan at 0.7%, China at 4.7%, and India at 6.3% for 2025 [2]. Impact of Trade Policies - The report highlights that trade barriers and policy uncertainty are undermining market confidence and investment activities, exacerbating inflationary pressures [1][4]. - OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Pereira states that the global economic outlook is bleak, with reduced trade affecting income and employment growth [4]. Recommendations for Policy - The OECD emphasizes the importance of reaching agreements to ease trade tensions, reduce tariffs, and eliminate trade barriers to restore economic growth and investment [4]. - The report suggests that even if the Trump administration adjusts tariff policies, the positive effects on economic growth and inflation relief will not be immediate due to ongoing policy uncertainty [7]. Additional Economic Concerns - The report warns that the negative impacts of trade policies are compounded by immigration restrictions and large-scale federal layoffs, which may further deteriorate the U.S. economy [7]. - OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann notes that retaliatory measures from trade partners are slowing export growth, and significant immigration slowdown is also a concern [7]. Inflation and Fiscal Risks - The OECD predicts that U.S. inflation will continue to rise, with the Federal Reserve potentially delaying easing until 2026, and warns of the risk of consumer inflation expectations spiraling out of control [7]. - The report also highlights increasing global fiscal risks due to pressures from defense spending, climate governance, and aging populations, recommending governments to cut unnecessary spending and broaden the tax base [7].

美国家庭烹饪比例升至疫情后高点 关税影响下民众收紧开支 金十数据6月3日讯，美国食品公司Campbell's发现，美国消费者家庭烹饪的比例已达到2020年初以来的 峰值，显示民众在经济担忧中正收紧开支。Campbell's观察到的趋势正值市场对美国经济前景感到担忧 之际。特朗普关税政策引发了经济衰退担忧，并打击了消费者信心。更多家庭烹饪意味着外出就餐减 少，表明美国人正在紧缩开支，这可能对GDP构成不利影响，因其三分之二依赖于消费者支出。这还可 能凸显民众对美国经济前景趋于悲观，密歇根大学消费者信心指数上月跌至有记录以来的最低水平之 一。 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 6月3日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 783.10 | 1.40% | 131022 | 180833 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 国投期货：假期期间贵金属上涨。特朗普贸易政策反复，再度对钢铝关税加码。数据方面美国5月ISM 制造业PMI录得48.5不及预期，为2024年11月以来新低。贸易战阴霾下市场前景依然充满不确定性，后 续关注美国贸易法院禁止特朗普关税以及各方谈判进展，贵金属将测试前期高点位置阻力，维持回调买 入思路。 北京时间周二22:00，美国劳工统计局将公布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)，预计这一重量级就业 数据将引发本交易日金价大行情。 经济学家预计，美国4月JOLTs职位空缺为710万人，此前3月为719.2万人。 JOLTS职位空缺报告是是美联储高度关注的劳动力市场数据。 美国劳工统计局此前公布的3月JOLTS报告显示，当月职位空缺数低于预期，降至719.2万人，较2月下 修后的748万人回落。这一数 ...

Group 1 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year, although the Fed itself may not yet be aware of this direction [1] - Derivatives market traders predict that the Fed will remain inactive until September, followed by a "rapid and significant" rate cut, with expectations of a 100 basis point drop to a range of 3.25%-3.5% by June next year [1] - Top economists warn that the market may be misjudging the Fed's stance, emphasizing that the Fed has prioritized its 2% inflation target and has implemented the most aggressive tightening cycle in history [1][2] Group 2 - The optimism regarding rate cuts stems from the Fed's previous slow response to inflation, but this has led to an underestimation of its subsequent hawkish resolve [2] - Former Fed officials indicate that Chairman Powell is under pressure to avoid being labeled as a failure in the fight against inflation, with recent statements reflecting a commitment to controlling inflation [2] - There is a possibility of continued rate hikes if inflation spirals out of control, highlighting the complexity of the current economic situation [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while the economy shows signs of monthly rebound, mid-term variables remain weak, suggesting a cautious outlook for the market [1][2] - The market experienced divergence last week, with the CSI 300 index declining by 1.08%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.03%, and the CSI 500 index increasing by 0.32%, indicating an overall downward trend despite a weak rebound in small-cap stocks [2][3] - The official manufacturing PMI for May rebounded, signaling a recovery in the Chinese economy after the April tariff disruptions, but it remains below the strong demand levels seen earlier in the year, indicating a repair phase rather than a definitive turnaround [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis of the U.S. economy reveals short-term resilience but persistent mid-term consumer confidence issues, compounded by political strife, making sustained economic recovery unlikely [2][3] - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, as the economic rebound indicators have already been priced in by the market [3] - For the small-cap sector, despite a relative strength in style, the recommendation remains to maintain a low position, with a focus on the mid-cap range from CSI 500 to CSI 1000 [3]

美国国内游同样势头疲软，因为很多美国民众担忧美国即将陷入经济衰退，广泛加征关税也将推动消费 价格快速上涨，所以不得不取消或推迟旅行计划。根据世界旅游及旅行理事会与牛津经济研究院联合分 析得出的最新数据，2025年美国预计将损失高达125亿美元的旅游收入，到2025年年底，美国全年国内 外游客消费支出预计将比2024年减少约7%，较2019年美国旅游业巅峰时期大跌22%。 不明朗的经济前景叠加疲软的航空需求，迫使美国的航空公司不得不采取削减航班班次、停止提供免费 服务等方式控制成本，以保持利润率和现金流。正如达美航空首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安所说，"当前全 球贸易面临较大的不确定性，增长趋于停滞。在这种低增长环境下，我们正专注于自己能够掌控的一 切。" （文章来源：经济日报） 美国西南航空公司日前宣布，正式终止其长期实行的"行李免运费"政策。即日起，该航空公司将对首件 托运行李收取35美元费用，第二件收取45美元，除非乘客是高级会员或购买高价机票。 此前，西南航空公司是美国唯一仍为所有旅客提供两件免费托运行李的大型航司，"行李免运费"这一特 色服务曾使其在竞争激烈的美国航空市场中独树一帜。此次取消免运费政策意味着 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar weakened due to disappointing initial jobless claims data, leading to a rebound in gold prices, which broke through the key psychological level of $3,300 per ounce [1] - The Federal Reserve's minutes from the May 6-7 meeting indicated that policymakers face a "dilemma" in the coming months, with rising inflation and unemployment rates increasing the risk of economic recession [1] - Gold, as a non-yielding asset, tends to be more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment, which may drive further investment interest [1] Group 2 - The global debt market is showing dangerous signals, with the US 30-year Treasury auction experiencing historic cold reception and the bid yield soaring to 4.85% [3] - The debt-to-GDP ratios for the US and Japan have surpassed 135% and 265% respectively, indicating unsustainable fiscal conditions that threaten the foundation of the US dollar [3] - Attention is focused on key upcoming events, including the PCE data release, OPEC+ production meeting, and G7 finance ministers' summit, which could influence monetary policy decisions [3] Group 3 - Technical analysts predict that spot gold is expected to test a support level of $3,272 per ounce, with a potential drop to the range of $3,215 to $3,243 if this level is breached [3] - The current correction phase in gold prices, starting from $3,336, may have the potential to break below the previous low of $3,253 [4] - Resistance is noted at $3,308, and if surpassed, prices could rise to the range of $3,330 to $3,348 [4]

墨西哥央行会议纪要：墨西哥可能会出现轻微的经济衰退。缩小利差需要逐步推进。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.81%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed flat [1] - The core logic is that in the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump trade - wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the US trade court ruled to block Trump's global tariffs, reducing the risk - aversion sentiment. The US has completely left the top - tier AAA credit rating club, and the 20 - year new bonds have been cold. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the Fed meeting minutes show that the Fed admits that inflation and unemployment may rise simultaneously and will face a difficult choice. US business equipment spending has recorded the largest decline in six months, and tariff uncertainties linger. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and weak [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has rebounded with fluctuations, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate weakly in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF have re - increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Data**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3312.40 per ounce, up $12.70 (0.38%) from the previous day and up $19.80 (0.60%) from last week; London gold was at $3300.85 per ounce, up $4.15 (0.13%) from the previous day and up $39.30 (1.20%) from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 764.32 yuan per gram, down 7.96 yuan (-1.03%) from the previous day and down 15.78 yuan (-2.02%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 762.49 yuan per gram, down 6.40 yuan (-0.83%) from the previous day and down 15.28 yuan (-1.96%) from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions were 448,000 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 0.98% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions were 195,076 lots (1 kg per lot), down 2.00% from the previous day and down 12.93% from last week; Gold TD positions were 216,784 lots (1 kg per lot), up 0.81% from the previous day and up 0.15% from last week; LBMA inventory was 8,536 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,207 tons, up 0.05% from last week; Shanghai Gold inventory was 17 tons, up 0.05% from last week [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai Gold by SHFE members are led by CFC Futures with 29,986 lots, and the top 10 net - short positions are led by Jinrui Futures with 5,365 lots [3] 3.2 Silver - **Price Data**: Comex silver main contract closed at $33.10 per ounce, down $0.29 (-0.87%) from the previous day and down $0.16 (-0.50%) from last week; London silver was at $33.29 per ounce, up $0.38 (1.17%) from the previous day and up $0.78 (2.42%) from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8,224 yuan per kilogram, down 1 yuan (-0.01%) from the previous day and down 77 yuan (-0.93%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 8,202 yuan per kilogram, down 9 yuan (-0.11%) from the previous day and down 66 yuan (-0.80%) from last week [5] - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver positions were 141,451 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), up 2.31% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions were 5,183,925 lots (1 kg per lot), down 1.34% from the previous day and down 10.00% from last week; Silver TD positions were 3,389,800 lots (1 kg per lot), up 0.78% from the previous day and down 1.47% from last week; The total visible inventory was 40,715 tons, up 0.08% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai Silver by SHFE members are led by Guotai Junan with 45,469 lots, and the top 10 net - short positions are led by Jinrui Futures with 13,935 lots [6] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $674.0008 billion, down $2.4409 billion (-0.00%) from the previous value [7] - **Macroeconomic Data**: M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.63%, down 1.87% from the previous day and down 2.59% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.87, up 0.30% from the previous day and up 0.26% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.39, down 9.30% from the previous day and down 7.14% from last week [7] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.30%, down 0.10 from the previous value; core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, unchanged; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.29%, down 0.39 from the previous value; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.65%, down 0.32 from the previous value [9] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 1.90%, down 1.00 from the previous value; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is - 0.30%, down 2.70 from the previous value; the unemployment rate is 4.20%, unchanged [9] - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves: China has 2,294.50 tons, up 0.22% from the previous value; the US has 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world has 36,250.15 tons, unchanged; the geopolitical risk index is 192.40, up 87.57% from the previous value; the VIX index is 18.11, down 6.21% from the previous day and down 10.70% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 293.26, down 0.51% from the previous day and down 1.02% from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1971, down 0.04% from the previous value [9][11] 3.4 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2]

周四凌晨美联储公布会议纪要，通胀和经济下行双重压力下，美国经济正面临衰退，另外贸易战方面早间美国法院叫停了特朗普"解放日"贸易政策，近期随 着贸易战的缓和，避险情绪回落。 昨日黄金市场最低至3276.76美元/盎司，最终收盘于3288.64美元/盎司，本交易日亚洲早盘开盘后市场延续空头走势，最低至3261.27美元/盎司，目前交投于 3266.00美元/盎司附近。 若后市市场上破3288.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3298.00-3308.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司空间） 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间32.750-33.430，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破32.750美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为32.4-32.100美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破33.430美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及33.900-34.200美元/盎司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空间） 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应根据自己的风险承受能 ...