Group 1: Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed, with inflation expectations also declining [1][12] - Offshore US dollar liquidity remains generally loose, while the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the yield curve spread (10Y-1Y) narrowing [1][20] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has slightly decreased but remains at a high level since March, with trading heat in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, steel, construction, consumer services, military, and communications above the 80th percentile [2][27] - Major indices have seen a decline in volatility, with most sectors' volatility below the 50th historical percentile [2][33] Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Analysts have simultaneously lowered the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with specific sectors such as electric power and utilities, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and real estate seeing upward adjustments in their profit forecasts [3][51] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index and CSI 500 for 2025/2026 have been raised, while those for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have been lowered [3][51] Group 4: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, but there has been an overall net sell-off in A-shares, with a rise in the buy/sell ratio in sectors like pharmaceuticals, communications, and computers [5][31] - For stocks with Northbound holdings below 30 million shares, there has been a net buy in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and electric new energy sectors, while net selling occurred in food and beverage, agriculture, and public utilities [5][33] Group 5: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has reached a new high for the year, with a net buy of 32.458 billion yuan, primarily in pharmaceuticals, electronics, and computers, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and coal saw net selling [6][11] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as communications, media, and transportation has increased [6][38] Group 6: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in communications, military, and steel sectors, while ETFs have experienced overall net redemptions [8][45] - The correlation between active equity funds and large/mid-cap growth/value indices has risen, indicating a shift in investment strategies [8][48]

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to lower its key interest rate from 4.25% to 4% this Thursday, with further cuts anticipated by the end of the year, despite rising inflation concerns [2] - UK inflation surged to a peak of 11.1% post-Russia-Ukraine conflict, significantly higher than the Eurozone or the US, primarily due to reliance on natural gas for heating and electricity [2] - Inflation rates in the UK are projected to decline significantly, reaching a low of 1.7% by September 2024, but are expected to rebound faster than in the US or Eurozone [2] Group 2 - Inflation expectations in the UK have risen, with long-term inflation indicators nearing their highest levels since late 2022, reflecting concerns about future price increases and wage demands [5] - Despite a significant drop in overall consumer inflation in 2023, key components used to measure long-term domestic price pressures have not decreased similarly [8] - Service sector price inflation is heavily influenced by rising labor costs, and food and beverage prices are also experiencing a rapid increase, impacting public perception of inflation, especially among poorer demographics [9][12] Group 3 - Private sector annual wage growth is slightly below 5%, down from over 8% two years ago, but still above pre-pandemic levels, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [13] - Wage growth is expected to slow to around 3% over the next 18 months, which could exert downward pressure on inflation [13][15] - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates strong pricing pressures, with significant cost increases reported by service and manufacturing sectors, suggesting potential upward pressure on consumer prices [16][19]

01 重要事件回顾 1、中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢29日晚在瑞典斯德哥尔摩说，根据中 美新一轮经贸会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制 措施如期展期。 8、美国7月就业增长超预期放缓，美国7月季调后非农就业人口录得7.3万人，远低于市 场预期的11万人。同时前月数据被大幅下修，显示劳动力市场显著降温。 2、7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议重申 稳中求进的工作总基调，延续了4月政治局会议中"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"的 表述。货币政策适度宽松取向不变，但未提及降准降息。会议指出，依法依规治理企业 无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。规范地方招商引资行为。坚持"两个毫不动摇"，激 发各类经营主体活力。 3、7月30日，美联储如期按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%。 这是美联储连续第五次在货币政策会议上决定暂停降息。鲍威尔在最新一轮货币政策会 议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定。 4、7月30日，美国经济分析局公布2025年二季度GDP数据初值：二季度实际GDP年化 季率初值+3.0 ...

2025.08. 02 本文字数：1204，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周五美股全线下挫，特朗普为美国对数十个贸易伙伴征收的新关税打压了市场情绪，而低于预期的就 业报告加剧了避险情绪。 本周，道指累计下跌2.9%，标普500指数下跌2.4%，纳指下跌2.2%。 美国劳工统计局报告称，上个月美国非农就业总人数增加了7.3万人，市场预期增加10.4万人，失业 率环比上升0.1个百分点至4.2%，同时前两个月的就业增长大幅下调。 嘉信理财高级投资策略师戈登（Kevin Gordon）表示："所有人都对5月和6月的向下修正幅度感到 震惊。有利的一面是失业率没有明显飙升。" 罗素投资高级投资策略师林北辰表示，就业增长主要集中在以前人手不足的行业，如医疗保健和社会 救助。"近几个月来，创造就业的广度稳步下降。" 密歇根大学调查显示，7月份美国消费者信心连续第二个月上升，而未来一年的通胀预期降至2月份 以来的最低水平。消费者调查总监Joanne Hsu表示："尽管最近的趋势显示市场情绪朝着有利的方 向发展，但市场情绪总体上仍然是负面的。自4月以来，消费者的担忧有所减轻，不过他们对经济的 轨迹并不乐观。" ...

Core Viewpoint - In July, U.S. consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month, but overall optimism remains at historically low levels, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increasing by 1.6% to 61.7, the highest since February of this year, yet down 7.1% year-over-year [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment Index - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence regarding the economy, personal financial situation, business environment, and willingness to spend, with a monthly release of preliminary and final values [3]. - The Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI) rose nearly 5% to 68.0, marking the highest level since January, while the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) slightly declined to 57.7, the first drop since April [3][6]. - Historical data shows that the current index of 61.7 is significantly below the average of 84.4 since 1978, indicating a low level of consumer confidence [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Correlation and Trends - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has a moderate monthly fluctuation average of 3.1 points, with the current 1.0 point change being considered mild [4]. - The index is correlated with U.S. GDP, with a three-month moving average trend aligning with economic fundamentals [4]. - The survey indicates that consumer sentiment changes are more closely related to economic conditions rather than political party affiliation [6]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year decreased for the second consecutive month from 5.0% in June to 4.5%, the lowest since February, although still higher than post-election levels [8]. - Long-term inflation expectations also fell for the third month in a row from 4.0% in June to 3.4%, the lowest since January, yet still elevated compared to the end of last year [8].

Core Insights - The US consumer confidence index rose to a five-month high in July, driven by optimistic sentiment from the stock market rebound and easing inflation expectations [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for July reached its highest level in five months [1] - Consumers expect an average inflation rate of 3.4% over the next five to ten years, the lowest level since January of this year [1] - Short-term inflation expectations for the next year decreased from 5% in June to 4.5% in July [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The survey period ended on July 28, coinciding with President Trump's tariff agreements with major trading partners like Japan and the EU [1] - Despite the positive sentiment among stockholders, the confidence of non-stockholders declined, partially offsetting the overall increase in consumer confidence [1] - On the last Thursday of July, the President announced a new round of large-scale tariffs, which further increased the average tariff level in the US [1]

每经AI快讯，8月1日消息，美国7月密歇根大学1年通胀预期终值为4.5，预期为4.4，前值为4.4。美国7 月密歇根大学5年通胀预期终值为3.4，预期为3.6，前值为3.6。 ...

美国7月密歇根大学1年通胀预期终值 4.5，预期 4.4，初值 4.4。 ...

美国7月密歇根大学1年通胀预期终值为4.5，预期为4.4，前值为4.4。美国7月密歇根大学5年通胀预期终 值为3.4，预期为3.6，前值为3.6。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller voted against the recent interest rate cut, advocating for a 25 basis point reduction instead, arguing that tariffs only cause a one-time price level increase without leading to sustained inflation [1][2]. Economic Data Analysis - Current economic data suggests that monetary policy should be close to neutral rather than restrictive, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year and expectations of continued low growth through 2025 [2][3]. - The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, near the long-term estimate by the committee, and overall inflation, excluding temporary tariff effects, is slightly above the 2% target [2][3]. Labor Market Considerations - Despite a seemingly stable labor market, private sector job growth is nearly stagnant, indicating increased downside risks in the labor market [3]. - The potential for inflation is close to target, and the risks of inflation rising are limited, suggesting that action should not wait for a clear deterioration in the labor market [3]. Policy Recommendations - Waller suggests that if tariffs do not significantly impact inflation, the committee can continue to lower rates at a moderate pace, while also being prepared to pause if inflation or employment exceeds expectations [4]. - There is no justification for maintaining current interest rates, as it poses risks of a sudden downturn in the labor market [4].