美元四季度观点 东证衍生品研究院 元涛 从业资格号：F0286099 投资咨询号：Z0012850 美国经济-劳动力市场韧性降低 劳动力市场冷却速度上升 职位空缺降低 失业率上升但是通胀未必下行 资料来源：Bloomberg 美国劳动力市场韧性在明显降低，失业率开始趋势性上升，职位空缺趋向于中性水平。劳动力市场 很明显比预期要弱。 美国经济-劳动力市场中期弱势难免 资料来源：Bloomberg 经济基本面数据已经走弱，劳动力市场表现在目前很明显开始跟随经济基本面走弱，远期预期明显 下行，但是薪资增速继续维持相对韧性。 劳动力市场走弱速度可能加快 薪资增速继续制约核心通胀下行速度 经济远期预期波动加剧 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 美国通胀短期压力继续存在 核心服务业通胀回升 资料来源：Bloomberg 短期通胀压力持续存在，核心通胀尤其是服务业通胀没有明显下行倾向，短期通胀压力很明显在上 升。 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 通胀预期高位震荡 能源价格对于降息影响并不高 资料来源：Bloomberg 但是真正的关键在于远期通胀预期明显上升，并且达到一个非常高的水平，能源价格的上升对于通 胀预期的影响并不是非常显著 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) reported an increase in consumer inflation expectations for the Eurozone in August, supporting the stance of "not further lowering interest rates" [1] - Consumers expect prices to rise by 2.8% over the next 12 months, up from 2.6% in July, while three-year inflation expectations remain unchanged and five-year expectations slightly increased to 2.2% [1][3] - The current inflation rate in the Eurozone is stable at the target level of 2%, with officials expressing satisfaction with the current interest rate levels [3] Group 2 - Some ECB officials are concerned that inflation may fall below the target in the next two years, while others are focused on the impact of increased defense spending [3] - ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir stated that the bank has achieved its target and emphasized the need for patience and readiness for timely action [3] - The market anticipates an increase in the inflation rate to 2.3% this month [3] Group 3 - The ECB is closely monitoring food price trends, which are rising faster than other goods and services, with warnings that this could elevate overall inflation expectations [3] - The August survey revealed that consumer expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months remain stable at -1.2% [4] - Consumer expectations for the unemployment rate increased from 10.6% to 10.7%, while nominal income growth expectations rose to 1.1% from 1.0% [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国GDP增速超预期叠加首申失业金人数下降，10月降息预期降温，金 价回升；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线收跌；美债收益率多数上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨1.93个基点报4.158%；美元指数涨0.60%报98.47，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1452；COMEX黄金期货涨0.33%报3780.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货854.72，现货850.58，基差-4.14，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单60543千克，增加1530千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the rebound of the US dollar, gold prices declined. However, high expectations of interest rate cuts, supply concerns (as evidenced by copper prices rising over 3% to a more than one - year high), and the expansion of the Shanghai gold premium may support gold prices. Gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult under the current global situation [4]. - For silver, silver prices also dropped as the US dollar rebounded. But it may be supported by supply concerns and high interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US dollar rebounded, causing gold prices to fall. US stocks slightly declined, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields rose (10 - year Treasury yield increased by 4.24 basis points to 4.149%), the US dollar index rose 0.65% to 97.86, and the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.24% to $3768.5 per ounce. The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US dollar rebounded, leading to a drop in silver prices. US stocks declined across the board, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields fell (10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 4.06 basis points to 4.106%), the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 97.23, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 1.11% to $44.115 per ounce. The basis was - 67, and the Shanghai silver premium slightly expanded to around 240 yuan per kilogram. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Positive factors include global turmoil with remaining risk - aversion sentiment, strong expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and tariff concerns. Negative factors include the implementation of Trump's new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black - swan events. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult [10]. - **Silver**: Positive factors are similar to those of gold, with tariff concerns having a stronger impact on silver prices. Negative factors are also the same as those of gold. The logic is that silver prices generally follow gold prices, and due to stronger tariff concerns, silver prices may see an expanded increase [13]. 3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting; the Alibaba 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24 - 26 in Hangzhou, the Xiaomi 17 series launch event and the 2025 Eurasian Economic Forum will be held in Xi'an; at 14:00, Germany's October GfK consumer confidence index will be released; at 14:45, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazimir will present macro - expectations; at 15:30, the Swiss National Bank will announce its interest - rate decision; at 16:00, the European Central Bank will publish its economic bulletin, and the Swiss National Bank President Schlegel will hold a press conference; at 20:15, Federal Reserve Governor Milan will participate in a Bloomberg TV program; at 20:20, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 20:30, the final value of the US second - quarter GDP, the preliminary value of August durable goods orders, the goods trade balance, and wholesale inventories will be released; at 21:00, New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the Fourth Annual Conference on the International Role of the US Dollar, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 22:00, the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in August will be released, and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak on regulatory issues; at 01:00 the next day, former Federal Reserve Vice - Chairman for Supervision Barr will talk about bank stress tests; at 01:40, Dallas Fed President Logan's speech manuscript will be released; at 03:00 the next day, the Bank of Mexico will announce its interest - rate decision; at 03:30, San Francisco Fed President Daly (a 2027 FOMC voter) will speak [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms, also a bearish factor [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 67, which is a neutral factor. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 12756 kilograms to 1161799 kilograms, also a neutral factor [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Silver**: The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased, which is a bullish factor [6].

周三（9月24日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元上涨，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时间11:43分，美元兑日 元报价147.84，上涨0.15%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.62。澳新银行研究部高级国际经济学家 TomKenny在报告中表示，日本央行今年剩余时间可能维持政策利率不变。 他指出，美国关税对日本经济影响的不确定性加剧，加之日本国内政治局势不明朗，这些因素可能使日 本央行在明年之前保持按兵不动。日本央行上一次加息是在2025年初。Kenny称，央行暂停加息的一个 主要原因是其下调了2026财年的通胀预期，目前该预期已低于2%的物价稳定目标。这表明央行政策委 员会成员对实现物价稳定使命的信心有所下降，他补充道。澳新银行已将日本央行25个基点的加息预期 从2025年10月推迟至2026年1月。 美元兑日元支撑位是147.00关口，若跌破该点位，现货价格可能会加速下跌至146.20的水平支撑位。下 跌趋势可能会进一步延伸至145.50-145.45区域，这是上周三触及的7月7日以来的最低水平。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the short - term, the ultra - long - term US bond yields may decline from their highs, while those of the UK, France, Japan, and Germany are expected to have potential for phased spikes, but the room for continuous and significant upward movement is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the term premium may remain high, and there is a risk of a central increase in long - term yields [2][23]. - The foundation for the upward trend of Chinese asset prices is solid, and they are expected to further attract diversified capital allocation [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Review of Sharp Fluctuations in Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies - On September 2, 2025, the ultra - long - term bond yields of major developed economies rose rapidly. The 30 - year UK government bond yield reached 5.752%, the highest since 1998; Germany and France's 30 - year government bond yields reached 3.443% and 4.523% respectively, the highest since 2011 and 2009; the 30 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 3.302%, a record high; the 30 - year US government bond yield approached 5%. Market concerns spread to the European foreign exchange and stock markets. As of September 12, except for the impact of the resignation of Ishiba Shigeru on Japanese bond yields, the ultra - long - term bond yields of the UK, France, and Germany declined slightly [4]. - Since the end of the interest - rate hike cycle in the second half of 2023, the short - term government bond yields of major European and American economies have declined from their highs and accelerated their decline after the start of the interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of 2024. In contrast, the ultra - long - term government bond yields have shown a fluctuating upward trend. As of September 12, 2025, the average 2 - year government bond yields of G7 countries (except Japan) decreased by more than 31BP, while the 30 - year government bond yields increased by an average of 42BP [5]. 3.2 Reasons for Sharp Fluctuations in Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies - **Economic Aspect**: Loose fiscal policies, high leverage, and continuous fermentation of concerns about debt sustainability, combined with political instability and rising risk - aversion sentiment. For example, in the UK, fiscal difficulties have continuously disturbed the market; in France, it is difficult to promote fiscal discipline rectification, and the government changes frequently; in Germany, although the market responds positively to fiscal expansion, the "debt brake" increases concerns; in Japan, the resignation of the prime minister and concerns about fiscal easing have increased; in the US, the pressure of fiscal interest payments has increased, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is facing challenges [6][10]. - **Policy Aspect**: Affected by tariff frictions, inflation expectations have risen, restricting the prospects of interest - rate cuts and worsening the fiscal burden, forming a negative cycle. Since April 2025, the inflation levels of major economies have marginally rebounded, and central bank monetary policy decisions are facing dilemmas [15]. - **Funding Aspect**: The wave of corporate bond issuance and the reconstruction of the TGA account have led to a phased increase in bond supply, but the demand for long - term capital allocation is weak. In September, the bond issuance volume in Europe reached a record high, and the US Treasury plans to increase the TGA account balance. At the same time, the sharp rise and large fluctuations in ultra - long - term bond yields have reduced the enthusiasm of long - term funds such as insurance for allocation [20]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future Trends of Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies and Their Possible Impact on Chinese Asset Prices - **Outlook for the Future Trends of Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies** - **Short - term**: The ultra - long - term US bond yields may decline from their highs. The short - term supply pressure of US bonds is generally controllable, and the market expects the Fed to restart interest - rate cuts in September. In Europe and Japan, concerns about fiscal sustainability are still fermenting, and political adjustments increase the risk of rising ultra - long - term bond yields. However, the term spreads of some economies' government bonds are at relatively high historical levels, and policy intervention may limit the continuous and significant upward momentum [23][27]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The term premium may remain high, and there is a risk of a central increase in long - term yields. Global economic growth momentum is under pressure, and countries' fiscal expansion efforts are increasing, so the term spreads are expected to remain high [30]. - **Possible Impact on Chinese Asset Prices**: The Chinese equity market has been warming up since September 2024, with significant increases in major indices. In the bond market, the increases in 10Y and 30Y government bond yields are relatively small compared to developed economies. The RMB exchange rate has been rising steadily. The cultivation of new productive forces, the release of endogenous consumption growth momentum, a stable interest - rate and exchange - rate environment, and relatively low capital market valuations are expected to attract continuous inflows of diversified capital [31].

Core Viewpoint - The British public's inflation expectations for the next five years have risen to 3.8%, the highest since May 2019, which may cause concern among some Bank of England policymakers ahead of next week's interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The rise in public inflation expectations could become a risk factor for future inflation, increasing the likelihood of demands for higher wages and acceptance of higher prices [1] - Public satisfaction with the Bank of England's methods for controlling inflation has decreased from +6 in May to +2 in August, although it remains higher than most of the past three years [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached an 18-month high of 3.8% in July, the highest level among the G7 countries, with the Bank of England expecting inflation to reach 4% in September and return to target levels by Q2 2027 [1] Group 3: Currency Analysis - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently at 1.3508, with a slight decline of 0.03% from the previous close of 1.3512 [1] - Technical indicators show that the MACD value for GBP/USD is negative and close to zero, indicating slight bearish strength, while the RSI is hovering around 50, suggesting a balanced market without clear overbought or oversold conditions [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the gold market and its dynamics, particularly in relation to macroeconomic factors and central bank behaviors. The focus is on how these elements influence gold prices and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Commodity Market Dynamics**: Agricultural and pig prices have declined due to oversupply, reflecting fundamental signals in the global commodity market, aligning with liquidity expectation trading judgments [1] 2. **Gold Price Sensitivity**: Gold prices are influenced by supply, inventory, consumption, and investment demand. A 25 basis point interest rate change can affect gold prices by approximately $40 to $50 per ounce [4][1] 3. **Investment Demand**: Investment demand is a crucial factor in determining the central price of gold, with private sector investments through ETFs significantly influenced by risk appetite. As of the end of 2024, the European and American markets accounted for over 90% of global ETF holdings, while China's share was 4% [6][7] 4. **Central Bank Purchases**: Central bank gold purchases have a significant impact on gold prices, with historical data showing a shift from net selling to net buying leading to high premiums. Major contributors to this trend include China, Russia, and India [11][10] 5. **ETF Role in Gold Market**: ETFs serve as a critical tool for reflecting risk-hedging behavior, with significant fluctuations in holdings during major uncertainty events. However, ETF funds typically do not remain in the market long-term, often exiting after the peak of uncertainty [9][8] 6. **Risk Hedging Function**: Gold is primarily viewed as a risk-hedging tool within asset allocation strategies, akin to insurance, protecting other assets from unexpected risk events [13][15] 7. **Economic Cycle Impact**: Future economic cycles will significantly influence gold prices. Continued Fed rate cuts amid recession risks may drive more investors toward gold, while an overheating economy could weaken this trend [14][20] 8. **Market Environment**: The current market is characterized as both promising and risky for gold, benefiting from factors like de-globalization, trade conflicts, inflation expectations, and potential stagflation risks [17][18] 9. **Oil Prices and Inflation**: Oil prices are currently low but could rise due to geopolitical risks, impacting inflation expectations and interest rate trading [19][20] Other Important Insights - **Weak Correlation with Other Assets**: The weak correlation of gold with other risk assets enhances its value in multi-asset portfolios, particularly in low-probability scenarios [15] - **Future Price Volatility**: The gold market is expected to experience volatility rather than consistent upward trends, influenced by macroeconomic indicators and policy changes [20] - **Long-term Investment Considerations**: Investors should focus on macro events and geopolitical risks rather than short-term price movements when considering gold investments [16]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of the China-US interest rate "inversion" has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [1][14] - Offshore US dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced [1][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with most industry trading activities remaining above the 80th percentile [2][25] - Major indices' volatility has also risen, with the communication sector's volatility exceeding the 80th historical percentile [2][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with all sectors' liquidity indicators below the 40th historical percentile [2][36] Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, communication, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors have seen high research activity, while sectors like steel, electricity, utilities, machinery, light industry, building materials, and real estate have shown a rising trend in research activity [3][43] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to lower the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with the proportion of stocks with upward revisions increasing [4][50] - The net profit forecasts for sectors such as non-bank financials, chemicals, coal, and retail have been raised for 2025/2026 [4][21] - The net profit forecast for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025/2026 has been adjusted upward [4][23] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, but there continues to be a net sell-off overall [5][31] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and communication has risen, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals [5][32] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing has reached a high point not seen since September 2024, with a net purchase of 466.70 billion yuan last week [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing were in the electronic, non-bank financial, and machinery sectors, while net sales were seen in military, non-ferrous metals, and coal sectors [6][39] Active Equity Funds and ETFs - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in coal, communication, and home appliance sectors, while reducing positions in computers, non-bank financials, and electronics [7][45] - ETFs have continued to see net subscriptions, primarily in personal ETFs, with significant net purchases in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors [7][52]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver prices are currently experiencing a bullish trend, with paper silver trading around 9.971 CNY per gram, up 1.44% from the opening price of 9.829 CNY per gram [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates has been influenced by inflation uncertainties, with the core personal consumption expenditures index rising to 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since February [3] - Industrial demand for silver remains stable, driven by applications in solar panels, electronics, and semiconductors, which continues to support physical silver demand as investors seek attractive entry points [3] Group 2 - The resistance level for paper silver is identified in the range of 9.981 to 10.000 CNY per gram, while the support level is noted between 9.700 and 9.829 CNY per gram [4]