Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a notification outlining 19 measures to expand service consumption, indicating a shift from strategic positioning to practical implementation [1] - The measures include exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, increasing service consumption time for tourism, and supporting cross-industry IP cooperation and the introduction of foreign sports events [1] - Analysts believe that the combination of clear subsidy directions and financial support will stimulate the IP economy, event economy, and AI+ consumption, while also providing subsidies to residents from the demand side and reducing costs and improving efficiency from the supply side [1] Industry Analysis - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index includes a range of new consumption leaders, with service-oriented consumption accounting for over 50%, covering sectors such as cultural tourism, dining, sports goods, medical beauty, and freshly brewed tea [1] - The current rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the index is 22 times, positioned at the 24.5% percentile since its launch in 2020, indicating emerging investment value [1] - The E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (513070) has the lowest management fee rate of 0.15% per year among stock ETFs and supports T+0 trading, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on service consumption investments [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a sideways trend with a slight increase on September 16, 2023, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3861.87 points, up 0.04%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 13063.97 points, up 0.45% [1][4][8] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 20 sectors saw gains, with textiles, computers, and comprehensive finance leading the increases, while agriculture, banking, and non-ferrous metals faced significant declines [1][4][8] - The total trading volume for the A-share market reached 236.71 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4][8] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.27%, the S&P 500 down by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.07% [2][4] - Notably, Tesla's stock rose nearly 3%, while major companies like UnitedHealth and Nvidia saw declines of over 1% [2][4] Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments jointly issued policies aimed at expanding service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures to stimulate consumption and support economic growth [9][10] - The measures include initiatives to enhance high-quality service supply, promote new consumption models, and improve financial support for service consumption [9][10][11] Digital Transformation Guidelines - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released guidelines for the digital transformation of key industries, applicable to manufacturing enterprises and digital transformation service providers [12][13] - The guidelines include a reference for 14 industry scenarios, aiming to support the development of digital transformation across various sectors [12][13] Economic Data - Recent data indicates that China's trade with ASEAN countries grew by 9.7% in the first eight months of the year, maintaining ASEAN's position as China's largest trading partner [19] - In the U.S., retail sales rose by 0.6% in August, marking the third consecutive month of exceeding expectations, with consumer spending remaining robust [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the service consumption sector, including Gu Ming, Mi Xue, Cha Bai Dao, Xiao Cai Yuan, Da Shi, and others [7][8]. Core Insights - The recent policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption are expected to boost the service sector, particularly in areas such as cultural tourism, IP consumption, and elderly care [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in China's service consumption, with the current contribution of service industry value added to GDP at 57%, compared to around 70% in developed countries, indicating room for expansion [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality service supply and the integration of new technologies and business models to enhance the service sector [1][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The report outlines five key areas with 19 specific measures to promote service consumption, including the cultivation of service consumption platforms and the enhancement of high-quality service supply [3][4]. - Specific initiatives include optimizing cultural product offerings, extending operating hours for tourist attractions, and promoting long-term care insurance [3]. Market Performance - As of August 2025, retail and catering revenue reached 449.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [4]. - Domestic travel during the first half of 2025 saw 3.285 billion trips, a 20.6% increase year-on-year, with spending reaching 3.15 trillion yuan, up 15.2% [4]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with growth potential and strong market positions, such as Gu Ming, Mi Xue, and others, which are expected to benefit from policy support and industry consolidation [5][8]. - Specific companies highlighted for their growth potential include Gu Ming (1364 HK), Mi Xue Group (2097 HK), and others, with target prices set for each [8][12]. Financial Performance - Gu Ming reported a 34.4% year-on-year increase in GMV to 14.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 1.625 billion yuan, reflecting a 121.5% increase [13]. - Mi Xue Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 14.87 billion yuan, a 39.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.69 billion yuan, up 42.9% [15]. Growth Outlook - The report anticipates that as the new measures are implemented, the service sector will experience a surge in high-quality supply and innovative business models, driving domestic demand growth [4][5].

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The September market trend is more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high-level consolidation phase after a continuous rise. In the long run, China's capital market is at the beginning of a strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology growth components, are more offensive with large fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which have more dividend blue-chip components, are more defensive with small fluctuations and relatively weak price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IF contracts showed declines, with decreases ranging from -0.11% to -0.25%. The trading volume and open interest had different changes, with open interest increasing in some contracts and decreasing in others [1] - **IH Contracts**: The prices of IH contracts also declined, with decreases ranging from -0.24% to -0.34%. The trading volume and open interest changed, with open interest showing a mixed pattern of increase and decrease [1] - **IC Contracts**: The prices of IC contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.55% to 0.65%. The trading volume and open interest had different changes, with open interest generally increasing [1] - **IM Contracts**: The prices of IM contracts decreased, with decreases ranging from -0.44% to -0.72%. The trading volume and open interest changed, with open interest showing a mixed pattern of increase and decrease [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of different contracts had different changes compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.24%, the SSE 50 index decreased by -0.15%, the CSI 500 index decreased by -0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by -0.24%. Other major domestic and overseas indexes also had different degrees of increase or decrease [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different price changes, with some industries rising and some falling [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes had different values and changes compared to the previous two - day values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic and overseas major indexes, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, etc., had different degrees of increase or decrease [1] 5. Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption, including 19 measures in five aspects, and proposed to build pilot cities for new consumption formats [2] - Trump said he would talk to Chinese leaders, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson had no specific information to provide [2] - The central bank governor pointed out that the international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence, competition, and mutual restraint of several sovereign currencies [2] - The so - called "cancellation of the overseas individual housing purchase limit in China" is a misreading, and the policy only optimizes the review process [2] 6. Industry Information - A ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area started construction, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan and over 150 billion yuan in supporting power base investment [2] - Guangdong Province issued an action plan to empower the toy industry with AI, aiming for a scale - above - designated - size toy industry revenue of 100 billion yuan and an AI toy penetration rate of over 30% by 2027 [2] - Suzhou released an "AI +" urban action plan, aiming to gather over 3000 AI enterprises by the end of 2026, with an average annual growth rate of over 20% in the core scale of the intelligent economy industry [2] - The China Real Estate Association's direct - sales platform for commercial housing was officially launched, with 15 initial signing units [2] - The world's first AI Agent trading market, MuleRun, was officially launched [2]

Policy Measures - On September 16, nine departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption, focusing on five key areas: cultivating service consumption platforms, enriching high-quality service supply, stimulating new consumption, enhancing financial support, and improving statistical monitoring systems[2] - The report outlines 19 specific measures aimed at promoting the quality and expansion of service consumption, thereby unleashing domestic demand potential[2] Industry Insights - In the cultural and tourism sector, the added value of cultural and related industries reached CNY 5.95 trillion in 2023, while tourism and related industries added value was CNY 5.48 trillion[2] - Domestic travel is projected to reach 5.615 billion trips in 2024, with total consumption expected to hit CNY 5.75 trillion[2] - The sports industry is anticipated to grow significantly, with a focus on introducing high-quality international sports events and fostering grassroots sports events like "Village Super" and "Su Super" to create new consumption growth points[2] Investment Recommendations - Service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points[2] - Per capita service consumption expenditure is projected to increase by 7.4%, contributing 63% to overall per capita consumption growth[2] - Investment focus areas include "new" cultural tourism projects, quality sports event IPs, and long-term care insurance-related enterprises in the elder care sector[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy progress, lower-than-expected economic growth, and weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment recovery[2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong Travel (00308) saw a stock increase of over 11%, reaching a price of 1.85 HKD with a trading volume of 461 million HKD [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released policies on September 16 to expand service consumption, including 19 measures across five areas, such as launching a "Service Consumption Season" [1] - The tourism market is experiencing heightened activity due to the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with expectations for a sustained high level of tourism [1] Group 2 - China Aviation Securities believes that policy support, supply response, and demand upgrades are creating a synergistic effect that will sustain the high tourism activity during the "super long golden week," benefiting various sectors including accommodation, transportation, dining, retail, and entertainment [1] - Hong Kong Travel is the flagship of China Travel Group's tourism investment and operation business, focusing on the development and operation of tourism destinations [1] - The company operates approximately 60 domestic and international scenic spots and resorts, including 18 5A scenic spots and 18 4A scenic spots, with a commitment to high-quality and unique cultural tourism resources [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued 19 specific measures to expand service consumption, focusing on enhancing service quality and promoting consumer activities [1] - The "Service Consumption Quality Improvement and Benefit Action" plan was introduced to strengthen policy support, build platforms, and optimize the consumption environment [1] - The initiative includes the continuous development of the "Buy in China" brand and the launch of a series of promotional activities in key service sectors [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of National Defense confirmed that the Fujian aircraft carrier is conducting sea trials, which is a normal part of its construction process [2] - The development of the aircraft carrier is aligned with national security needs and technological advancements, emphasizing China's commitment to a defensive national policy [2] - The Fujian carrier is expected to play a significant role in safeguarding national sovereignty and development interests [2] Group 3 - The China National Medical Products Administration released the first industry standard for medical devices using brain-computer interface technology, set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [4] - This standard aims to support the high-quality development of the brain-computer interface medical device industry [4] Group 4 - The Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a warning letter to Qianhai Hongtai Fund Management Co., Ltd. for failing to complete fund filing procedures after fundraising [5] - This action is based on violations of the Private Fund Management Regulations [5] Group 5 - Vanke A received a loan of up to 2.064 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group [8] - Hengwei Technology plans to acquire 75% of Shuheng Technology's shares, leading to a stock suspension [8] - Shanghai Construction's stock has seen significant short-term gains, indicating potential market overheating [8] - Huohai Biotechnology's controlling shareholder received an administrative penalty notice [8] - Funeng Technology plans to mass-produce its third-generation semi-solid battery by 2026 [8] - Luxiao Technology signed an AI robot cooperation agreement with its subsidiary [8] - Haon Electric received a product designation notice, estimating total revenue of approximately 2.477 billion yuan over its lifecycle [8] - Haowei Group has entered NVIDIA's supply chain [8] - AVIC Optoelectronics has shipped UQD connectors and liquid cooling pipe components to overseas manufacturers [8]

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the announcement of 19 measures by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments to expand service consumption in China [1] - The measures include the implementation of a service consumption quality improvement action and the continuous development of the "Buy in China" brand [1] - There is a focus on developing new consumption scenarios and supporting the integration of various sectors such as travel, culture, and sports to create innovative consumption experiences [1] Group 2 - The document emphasizes the need for high-level opening of the service industry, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, healthcare, and education [1] - It encourages the introduction of foreign sports events and supports local governments in hosting popular sports events to enhance service consumption [2] - The document also outlines the optimization of student holiday arrangements to increase service consumption opportunities during travel seasons [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar: Rebound [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [8] - Live pigs: Oscillating strongly [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait - and - see [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and influencing factors. It provides investment ratings and suggestions for each product, considering factors such as industry policies, seasonal effects, and macro - economic indicators. For example, in the black industry, factors like steel mill production, mine policies, and demand changes affect the prices of iron ore, coking coal, and rebar; in the financial sector, policies and market sentiment impact the performance of stock indices and bonds; and in the agricultural and soft commodity sectors, factors such as weather, production, and consumption patterns play important roles [2][4][6][8][10]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: After steel mills resumed production, hot metal output rebounded to 2.4 million tons. Global iron ore shipments increased, with Australian and Brazilian shipments up 6.482 million tons. Demand recovered, and steel mills' profit ratio declined from a high. There is limited fundamental contradiction in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can hold at the previous high [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Mine shutdown news and "anti - involution" expectations drove the double - coke futures to rebound. Supply may be weaker than last year, and demand increased as hot metal output recovered. Coke started the second round of price cuts, with a cumulative reduction of 100 - 110 yuan/ton [2]. - **Rebar**: There is a lack of macro - level drivers, and "anti - involution" policy expectations are rising. Supply remains high, inventory pressure increases, and total demand is hard to show an inverse - seasonal performance. The profit of five major steel products declined, and the 2601 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: The rise of glass futures was driven by stronger upstream fuel prices and improved macro - sentiment. The "coal - to - gas" conversion in Shahe may cause price fluctuations. Although the supply - demand contradiction has not improved substantially, inventory reduction provides some confidence [2]. - **Soda ash**: Currently, trading is about cold - repair, and the key lies in the cold - repair path. The real - estate industry is in an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock indices**: The performance of different stock indices varied. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows. Policies such as the "Measures on Expanding Service Consumption" and the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" may impact the market. It is recommended to control risk preference and hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds declined, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. Market interest rates fluctuated, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. Factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, Chinese physical gold demand, and the Fed's interest - rate policy affect gold prices. Silver also shows high - level oscillation. The current upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and short - term factors include the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical conflicts [4]. Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: Port daily shipments increased slightly, and September arrivals are expected to be low. Supply pressure is not large, and the spot price is stable. It is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices were strong, and the cost support from foreign prices increased. However, the paper industry's low profitability and high inventory pressure limit the demand for high - priced pulp, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: Spot prices partially declined. Production is stable, but it is in the seasonal off - season. There is an oversupply situation, and it should be treated bearishly [6]. - **Oils and fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased, and inventory rose. Domestic soybean oil has inventory pressure, but supply may tighten later. Oils and fats may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - **Meal products**: The US soybean yield decreased slightly, but production increased due to larger areas. Export demand is weak, and domestic supply pressure is significant. Meal products are expected to oscillate weakly [6][8]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs increased slightly, and the slaughtering rate rose. Although demand is still restricted by high temperatures, it is expected to improve with school openings. The price may oscillate strongly, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [8]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: Supply pressure decreased in Yunnan, and production increased in Hainan. Tire factory capacity utilization rose, and inventory decreased. Rubber prices may oscillate widely [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX and PTA prices follow oil prices, with PX's near - month supply - demand weakening. MEG has low - level inventory and wide - balanced supply - demand in the medium term. PR and PF are affected by cost and demand factors, and their prices may oscillate or be in a wait - and - see state [10].