Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions among major global economies are heightening market caution, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold, with silver prices showing strong short-term performance ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI data release [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices recovered to above $38.30, driven by trade tensions and anticipation of U.S. inflation data [1] - The market is closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations of an increase in overall inflation rate from 2.4% to 2.7% and core inflation from 2.8% to 3.0% [2] - The release of inflation data will directly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influencing silver prices [2] Group 2: Price Movements - Spot silver reached a high of $39.10, the highest level since September 2011, before stabilizing around $38.28 [2] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to concerns over supply and rapid growth in industrial demand [2] - Gold's sustained increase over the past 18 months has led investors to seek more cost-effective alternatives, boosting silver's appeal [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver's recent price action shows a bearish reversal pattern, with the daily RSI remaining high and potential resistance at $39 [3] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $38.00 and $37.65, while resistance levels are at $38.60 and $39.00 [3]

金十数据7月15日讯，据外媒分析报道，6月CPI报告将显著影响市场对美联储下一步政策的预期。目前 市场预期，美联储在10月降息的可能性更大。如果数据高于预期，即使远高于预期，美联储也会等到10 月降息，但如果数据比预期温和，那么美联储预计在7月维持利率不变，9月降息。总之，在货币政策 上，6月CPI报告将让人看清，特朗普和鲍威尔谁才是正确的。 美国CPI前瞻：数据好于/低于预期对货币政策的影响 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has revised its economic forecasts, now expecting US GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025, a downward adjustment of 0.2% from previous estimates [1] - The forecast for PCE inflation has been increased to 2.7%, up by 0.2% from earlier predictions [1] - Core PCE inflation expectations have also been raised to 3.1%, reflecting an increase of 0.3% from prior forecasts [1] Economic Indicators - US GDP growth forecast for 2025: 1.3% [1] - PCE inflation forecast: 2.7% [1] - Core PCE inflation forecast: 3.1% [1]

Core Insights - Most economists expect a significant jump in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that tariffs may contribute approximately 0.08 percentage points to the core CPI reading for June [1] - Specific categories potentially affected by tariffs include furniture, entertainment products, education-related items, communication devices, and personal care products [1]

在这次表决尘埃落定的前一天，外界已经通过多条渠道感受到了紧绷气氛。围绕该法案，无论是国会内部还是社会各界，意见分歧都很明显，不只是政客们 激烈争辩，甚至涉及到了商界巨头、前总统等人。人们的讨论范围逐渐从法案文本扩展到了美国现行政治体制的问题，许多人感到现有制度已经不足以反映 社会多元诉求。 当中最引人关注的就是马斯克的介入。他在法案通过前夜连发数十条社交媒体帖子，对该法案提出了极为苛刻的批评。他警告称，如果该法案同样顺利通过 众议院，他会立即着手创建新政党"美国党"，声称要为那些对现有两党格局不满的选民提供选择。马斯克此前还曾就建立新政党进行网络民意调查，竟有超 过八成参与者对这个想法表示支持。 马斯克的反对不仅因为政策方向，他对现有两党之争带来的分裂状态长期不满。美国政治场基本由民主党和共和党牢牢把控，实际上让许多民众在选举中难 以表达真正的意愿，只能无奈在两党之间做选择。马斯克声称，建立一个第三力量正是应对这种困境的出路。他把希望寄托在"美国党"身上，认为这能让政 治生态出现转机。 7月1日，美国参议院以51比50的微弱优势通过了被外界称为"大而美"的税收及支出法案。这场投票在压力和争执声中落下帷幕，最后 ...

穆迪分析师：今年全球经济增长可能放缓至略高于2% 金十数据7月15日讯，穆迪分析的Stefan Angrick表示，由于美国贸易政策转变带来的不确定性，2025年 和2026年全球经济增长可能从2024年的近3%放缓至略高于2%。美国在贸易、财政支出和移民等方面的 政策波动扰乱了经济增长和通货膨胀的前景。新的关税威胁、金融市场波动和地缘政治热点是已经黯淡 的前景所面临的主要风险。由于军事冲突加剧了前景的高度不确定性，各国央行在政策变化方面正谨慎 行事。由于不确定性加剧使规划复杂化，投资决策和招聘延迟，企业面临压力。经济增长正在放缓，就 业条件也在走软。 ...

欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡拉斯：美国似乎逐渐意识到俄罗斯并不追求和平，这是一个积极的信 号。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the U.S. decision to provide Ukraine with Patriot missile systems through NATO, with NATO covering the costs, indicating a shift in U.S. policy regarding military aid to Ukraine [1][2][3] - The U.S. has provided significant military aid to Ukraine, totaling $106 billion in direct military assistance and over $60 billion in indirect aid as of last year, which has caused dissatisfaction among some factions within the U.S. [2][3] - The recent increase in Russian drone and missile attacks has heightened Ukraine's air defense pressure, leading to the decision to supply advanced military equipment [2][3] Group 2 - NATO's agreement to fund the Patriot missile systems was reached during the June 25 summit, where the U.S. sought to address internal dissatisfaction from the MAGA faction regarding military spending [3][4] - The NATO summit aimed to align with Trump's demands, including a commitment to increase military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, despite some member countries expressing reluctance [3][4] - Germany is identified as the most likely contributor to the funding for the Patriot systems, with indications of interest from other European partners [4][5] Group 3 - The potential for NATO to regularly fund U.S. military sales is questioned due to existing defense budget shortfalls among European members, which complicates the sustainability of such arrangements [4][5] - The ongoing U.S. congressional plans to grant Trump authority to impose tariffs on countries perceived as aiding Russia could have more significant implications than NATO's funding of military equipment [5]

尽管马斯克常常被认为与政治无关，甚至被戏称为"不懂政治"，但不可否认的是，作为全球首富，他总是展现出独到的眼光和果断的行事风格。尤其在与特 朗普的矛盾爆发后，马斯克迅速宣布将成立"美国党"，并明确表示其目标是聚焦于广泛的中间选民群体，直指美国庞大的选民市场。 美国的政治格局长期以来由民主党和共和党两大党派主导，尽管这些政客们嘴上常挂着"民主"的旗帜，自诩美国的政治体制是"世界最完美的"，但从实际情 况来看，两党轮流执政的模式不仅没能解决如财政赤字、社会分裂、产业空心化等困扰美国多年的结构性问题，反而导致了两党理念愈加对立，内耗逐渐加 剧，国家的政治气氛变得更加紧张。此背景下，美国民众普遍渴望能够出现第三方势力，推动政治格局的转型。 事实上，美国政治的两党垄断并非近年才出现，而是早在19世纪中期便已形成。尽管中间选民在数量上占据重要地位，但他们在两党之间的博弈中常常显得 孤立无援，似乎是"政治孤儿"。每逢选举，中间选民常常并不是因为支持某一党派的理念，而是出于对另一党派的反感。例如，若他们厌恶民主党，往往会 选择投票给共和党，尽管他们并不认同共和党的政策主张。这样，缺乏有效的第三选择，最终导致了政治多样性被压制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Rob Subbaraman, the global macro research head at Nomura, regarding the anticipated rise in inflation in the U.S. and the potential for stagflation as economic growth slows down in the second half of the year [3][6]. Inflation Drivers - The primary reason for the expected rise in U.S. inflation is the tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, which have led to widespread price increases [8]. - Despite the current low inflation levels, Subbaraman believes inflation will intensify, predicting that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise to 3.3% by Q4 [7]. - The second factor contributing to inflation is the immigration policies of the Trump administration, which have resulted in labor shortages in key industries, thereby increasing wage pressures [9]. - Lastly, the Trump administration is expected to implement expansionary fiscal policies ahead of the mid-term elections, which could contribute an additional 0.4% to 0.5% growth to the U.S. GDP but also lead to inflation [9]. Tariff Implications - Subbaraman notes that the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy may not be as limited as the market currently anticipates, suggesting that the administration may not back down easily from its tariff strategies [10]. - The logic behind the current tariff war extends beyond merely reducing trade deficits, encompassing geopolitical and diplomatic considerations as well [10][11]. - The article highlights a specific case where the U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, which reflects the broader implications of U.S. trade policies [11].