文/《清华金融评论》 周茗一 国务院新闻办公室于2025年4月28日（星期一）上午10时举行新闻发布会，请国 家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部副部 长盛秋平、中国人民银行副行长邹澜介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措 施有关情况，并答记者问。 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕 表示，4月18日召开的国务院常务会议已就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措（下称若干举措），进行了研究。若干 举措与去年9月一揽子增量政策、中央经济工作会议和全国"两会"部署任务形成接续，是应对外部环境变化的重要举措，是落实党中央和国务院决策部署 的具体行动。 具体来看，若干举措具体包括五方面内容。 关于近期美国国债和美元汇率市场出现大幅振荡 中国人民银行副行长邹澜 表示，美国宣布对多个经济体大幅加征关税，严重侵犯各国正当权益，严重损害以规则为基础的多边治理体制，严重冲击全球 经济秩序，破坏全球经济长期稳定增长。同时，也引发了全球金融市场剧烈波动，投资者对美元资产的风险情绪上升，美元指数大幅下行，美债收益率上 升，美国股市波动加剧，全球资产组合在区域间重新配置。 在积极扩大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company benefited from national subsidies, leading to significant growth in revenue and profit in Q4 2024, with a total revenue of 16.54 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, up 31.7% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 2178% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of the old-for-new policy in 2025, which is anticipated to lead to a significant recovery in domestic demand for home appliances [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 16.54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.7% [2] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.86 billion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 470 million yuan, up 59.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 46.52%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.87%, up 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [3] - The company’s sales gross margin in Q1 2025 was 49.7%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 12.3%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Dynamics - The domestic market saw a significant boost in demand due to national subsidies, with the overall online sales and revenue of the sweeping robot industry in Q4 2024 increasing by 76% and 87% year-on-year, respectively [4] - The company is actively launching new products to address increasing market competition, and its product structure is continuously improving [4] - The company is expanding its global supply chain, with a new base in Vietnam to effectively mitigate tariff risks [4]

Economic Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with production, consumption, and investment data exceeding market expectations [1] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - Social retail sales rose by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1, with a notable increase of 5.9% in March [1] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% year-on-year in Q1, with manufacturing investment up by 9.1% and infrastructure investment up by 11.5% [1] Export and Domestic Demand - Q1 exports remained resilient, with net export levels reaching new highs, supported by a "rush to export" factor [2] - The positive economic performance in Q1 was attributed to the release of domestic demand and the effects of previous policy measures [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy launched in early 2025 allocated 300 billion yuan to support consumer goods replacement, significantly up from 150 billion yuan in 2024 [2] Manufacturing and Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1% in March, supported by equipment upgrading policies [3] - High-tech industry investments grew by 6.5%, with significant increases in information services, aerospace manufacturing, and computer equipment sectors [3] - Local government debt resolution efforts have positively impacted economic growth, particularly in major economic provinces [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Despite external uncertainties, China's large economic scale and domestic market provide significant resilience and flexibility [4] - The effectiveness of previous growth stabilization policies has contributed to a strong economic performance in Q1 2025 [4] - The focus on domestic stability in response to international uncertainties is seen as a unique advantage for China's economic growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The new trade-in policy, supported by a 300 billion subsidy, is reshaping three major industries: home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics, presenting investment opportunities for medium to long-term investors [1] Group 1: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector receives the largest subsidy, with up to 20% off for 12 product categories, capped at 2000 yuan per item. Sales surged by 23% year-on-year in the first four months of this year, with leading companies like Midea and Gree operating at full capacity [3] - High-end smart products, such as the Casarte series, have seen sales double post-subsidy, indicating a long-term trend of consumption upgrading [3] Group 2: Automotive Sector - The new energy vehicle segment is the biggest beneficiary, with a 20,000 yuan trade-in subsidy boosting sales. BYD's Han series orders exceeded 80,000 units in April [3] - The battery supply chain, including companies like CATL and Purtai, is also benefiting from this trend. The automotive aftermarket is highlighted as a promising area, with Tianqi's dismantling equipment orders extending to Q4 and Gree's battery recycling business achieving a gross margin of 28% [3] Group 3: Consumer Electronics - Although the subsidies in consumer electronics are smaller, they cover a wide range of products, including mobile phones and tablets. The Honor 90 series has over 40% of its sales through trade-in channels, and the inventory turnover days for core distributor Aishide have decreased to 15 days [3] - VR device manufacturer GoerTek has secured new orders from Meta, with expectations for Q3 performance to exceed forecasts [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment should focus on three dimensions: core leaders, supporting supply chains, and regional leaders. Recommended stocks include Midea Group and Haier Smart Home in home appliances, BYD and Top Group in new energy vehicles, and Luxshare Precision and Shenzhen South Circuit in consumer electronics [4] - Key timelines for investment include the release of home appliance energy-saving subsidy details in June, the launch of new energy vehicles in August, and the consumer electronics exhibition in November. Early positioning can capture policy-driven benefits [4] Group 5: Market Trends - The policy is expected to accelerate the concentration of the three industries. The market share of the top five companies in the home appliance sector has increased from 68% in 2019 to 79% currently, while the top ten automotive companies now hold over 92% market share [4] - The focus should be on companies with stable cash flow and a dividend yield exceeding 3% to seize structural opportunities [4]

外交工作是应对关税冲击的头等大事。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 美国"对等关税"落地以来，外部的关税博弈和内部的对冲政策成为影响市场走势的重要变量。随着近 期政策信号密集释放，增量政策的逻辑逐渐清晰。 第一，外交工作是应对关税冲击的头等大事。 4月9日，美国对中国"对等关税"生效，同时宣布暂停其他国家和地区的"对等关税"90天。 "对等关 税"的本质不是贸易，而是博弈。 在中国宣布反制"对等关税"之后，其他国家的态度也在发生变化。英国表示，要与中国建立更深层次 的伙伴关系，而非设置新的障碍。欧盟表示，愿同中方推进各领域高层对话，深化经贸、绿色经济、气 候变化等领域互利合作。日本表示，在美日贸易谈判上不打算做出重大让步，也不会急于达成协议。 美国挥舞关税大棒加速了全球贸易秩序的重构，也对美元体系为核心的货币秩序形成重要影响，这对中 国而言是重要的历史机遇。 近期的政策动向也印证了外交是当前的头等大事。 "对等关税"落地的4月9日，中央周边工作会议在北 京召开，明确要"聚焦构建周边命运共同体"。 与非美国家的外交成果决定了政策是对冲短期出口下 滑，还是应对长期外部风险。 中国与非美国家的外交关系越巩固，美国 ...

中金研究 3月，社零总额同比增长5.9%，为2024年以来最高单月增速，主要受以旧换新政策的短期提振。我们的估算显示，年初以来以旧换新进展逐步加快，一 季度4类商品财政补贴规模约为645亿元，其中3月约391亿元。政策效果方面，我们估计3月补贴政策对4类商品消费的当期乘数可能在2.8以上。但历史 经验显示，耐用品补贴政策具有透支效应，长期累计乘数会动态减弱，且对同期的其他消费形成一定挤压。我们认为，在贸易形势不确定性大幅上升 的背景下，更要注重"投资于人"，加大对民生领域（比如生育、养育、住房、养老等社会保障）的支持。 点击小程序查看报告原文 截至4月中旬，商务部已披露的4类消费品以旧换新进度如下： （1）汽车方面，截至4月10日零时，汽车以旧换新补贴申请223.2万份，其中汽车报废更新 补贴申请74.7万份，汽车置换补贴申请148.5万份。（2）家电方面，截至4月10日，消费者累计购买以旧换新家电产品3759万台。（3）数码产品方面，截 至4月6日，消费者申请手机、平板、智能手表（手环）3类数码产品购新补贴6486.6万件。（4）电动自行车方面，截至4月11日，电动自行车以旧换新交 售旧车、换购新车各352 ...

2024年"以旧换新"政策落地后，家电品类补贴范围扩容，拉动需求成效显著：除了09年已经涉及的彩 电、冰箱、洗衣机、空调、电脑5个补贴品类外，新增热水器、家用灶具、吸油烟机3个品类，共计补贴 8大品类。 申万宏源发布研报称，2025年以旧换新政策此前已落地，除补贴力度延续24年政策标准以外，新增微波 炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲4类产品纳入补贴范围，同时24年已经享受过某类产品以旧换新补贴的个 人消费者25年购买同类产品可继续享受补贴。此次政策补贴涉及品类相较于此前，进一步放宽，有望对 消费者产生较大吸引力，推动以旧换新工作进行。参考24年政策落地时间，该行预计今年1-8月行业整 体销售仍存在低基数优势。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 25年以旧换新加力扩容，再度激活家电消费市场 25Q1烟灶品类保持双位数增长，洗碗机销售回暖 看线下市场，根据奥维云网数据，25年Q1油烟机实现销量33.04万台，同比+33%，实现销额14.19亿 元，同比+39%;燃气灶实现销量34.33万台，同比+21%，实现销额7.61亿元，同比+38%;线上油烟机实现 销量171.27万台，同比+20%，实现销额22.97亿元，同比+16%; ...

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, with Q1 2025 revenue at 1.05 billion yuan, down 7.46% year-on-year, and a net loss of 73 million yuan [1][2] - The overall revenue for 2024 was 7.131 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.76% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit by 84.28% [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.05 billion yuan, down 7.46% year-on-year, with a net loss of 73 million yuan [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 2.3 billion yuan, down 2.89% year-on-year, with net profit of 35 million yuan, a decline of 74.65% [1] - For the full year 2024, revenue was 7.131 billion yuan, down 6.76% year-on-year, with net profit of 67 million yuan, down 84.28% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 25.24%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 0.94%, down 4.62 percentage points [2] - The company experienced a decline in profitability due to intensified competition in the bathroom industry [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company is adjusting its product structure to capitalize on national subsidy policies, aiming to enhance industry concentration and increase the penetration of smart toilets [3] - The company plans to focus on retail channel development and refined operational management to drive growth [2][3] Channel Performance - Direct sales revenue for 2024 was 1 billion yuan, down 3.49% year-on-year, while distribution revenue was 6.06 billion yuan, down 7.62% [3] - E-commerce revenue was 1.53 billion yuan, down 4.92%, but direct e-commerce channel revenue grew by 25.58% in Q4 2024 [4] - Overseas revenue reached 310 million yuan, up 137.73%, benefiting from the Belt and Road Initiative and overseas store expansion [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from national subsidy policies and aims to improve profitability through product innovation and scale effects [6] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 196 million yuan, 241 million yuan, and 301 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 41X, 33X, and 26X [6]

乘联分会数据显示，4月1-20日，全国乘用车市场零售89.7万辆，同比去年4月同期增长12%，较上月同期下降9%，今年以来累计零售602.4万辆，同比去期增 长7%;4月1-20日，全国乘用车厂商批发99.3万辆，同比去年4月同期增长14%，较上月同期下降12%，今年以来累计批发727.1万辆，同比增长12%。 4月1-20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比去年4月同期增长20%，较上月同期下降11%，零售渗透率53.3%，今年以来累计零售289.8万辆，同 比增长33%;4月1-20日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发53万辆，同比去年4月同期增长23%，较上月同期下降7%，批发渗透率53.3%，今年以来累计批发337.8万 辆，同比增长39%。 1.2025年4月全国乘用车零售市场平稳 | | 1-6日 | 7-13日 | 14-20日 | 21-27日 | 28-30日 | 1-20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 23年 | 37,304 | 43,954 | 53,718 | 70,151 | 75,291 | | | 24年 | ...