Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of MP Materials' stock, rising over 12%, is attributed to Apple's announcement of a $500 million investment in the company, highlighting the growing importance of domestic rare earth production in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Company Developments - MP Materials is the only rare earth producer in the U.S., operating a mine in Mountain Pass, California, and plays a crucial role in the rare earth supply chain amid efforts to reduce reliance on foreign sources [1]. - The company has previously secured a $400 million equity investment from the U.S. Department of Defense, making it the largest shareholder with a 15% stake [1]. - The Department of Defense's investment includes support for the construction of a new rare earth permanent magnet factory to enhance processing capacity and magnet production scale [1]. Group 2: Financial Backing and Future Plans - JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have provided a total financing commitment of $1 billion to support the construction and development costs of the new facility, named the "10X Factory," which is expected to begin trial operations in 2028 [1]. - The new facility aims to increase the annual production of magnets in the U.S. to 10,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Market and Industry Outlook - The recent investments are expected to accelerate the establishment of a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, with the CEO emphasizing the company's commitment to independent operations driven by shareholder interests [2]. - The rare earth sector in the U.S. has seen increased activity, with other companies like USA Rare Earth and Energy Fuels also experiencing stock price increases, reflecting optimistic market expectations for the U.S. rare earth industry [2]. - The U.S. government's growing support for the rare earth industry aims to create a more independent critical mineral supply system, with MP Materials' stock performance serving as a direct reflection of this policy direction in the capital market [2].

印度贸易部门：尽管美国平均基础关税为10%且行业关税上调，印度出口仍然保持韧性。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美国通胀的领先指标 ——出口深度思考系列之二 在年中展望报告中，我们认为今年"量"比"价"更重要。其简要逻辑在于， 在"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的不确定性"的基调下，出口风 险的主线是：美国进口→全球贸易/中国的出口→就业影响/政策对冲，而特朗 普关税政策可能引致的通胀上行风险对美国经济的冲击，是影响美国进口需 求的重要因素。因此从国内基本面出发考虑，将本篇报告列为出口深度思考系 列之二，通过构建一个领先指数，来定量地观察美国通胀的短期上行风险。 通胀上行如何冲击美国经济？ 1、居民部门：通胀上行，可能侵蚀美国消费者尤其是中低收入群体的实际收 入和消费能力。表面上来看，2021 年以来美国中低收入群体的实际薪资收入 增速要高于中高收入群体。但实际上，中高收入群体的总税后收入增速依然好 于中低收入群体，并且收入水平越低，税后收入增速越跑不过物价涨幅。基于 上述事实，如果通胀上行，实际薪资增速下行，对中低收入群体的实际购买力 以及整体贫富差距都存在负面影响，中低收入群体也是特朗普选民的基本盘。 2、居民部门：若出现明显的通胀上行，压制风险偏好带来美股下跌 ...

关税"通胀雷"今夜引爆？ 美国6月CPI将于今晚20:30重磅公布，预期数据全面上扬。此前多名官员预警通胀将于今夏起回升，若 数据坐实关税传导效应，美联储九月降息恐成幻影。届时市场恐剧烈波动，敬请投资者留意相关风险。 点击查看更多前瞻... 6月CPI能否验证关税冲击？黄金多头蠢蠢欲动！ 经济学家预计6月CPI将真正显示关税影响，而此前数月的CPI读数均被高估。美联储若再度失算，特朗 普政府恐怕不会放过...... ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions among major global economies are heightening market caution, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold, with silver prices showing strong short-term performance ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI data release [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices recovered to above $38.30, driven by trade tensions and anticipation of U.S. inflation data [1] - The market is closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations of an increase in overall inflation rate from 2.4% to 2.7% and core inflation from 2.8% to 3.0% [2] - The release of inflation data will directly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influencing silver prices [2] Group 2: Price Movements - Spot silver reached a high of $39.10, the highest level since September 2011, before stabilizing around $38.28 [2] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to concerns over supply and rapid growth in industrial demand [2] - Gold's sustained increase over the past 18 months has led investors to seek more cost-effective alternatives, boosting silver's appeal [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver's recent price action shows a bearish reversal pattern, with the daily RSI remaining high and potential resistance at $39 [3] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $38.00 and $37.65, while resistance levels are at $38.60 and $39.00 [3]

金十数据7月15日讯，据外媒分析报道，6月CPI报告将显著影响市场对美联储下一步政策的预期。目前 市场预期，美联储在10月降息的可能性更大。如果数据高于预期，即使远高于预期，美联储也会等到10 月降息，但如果数据比预期温和，那么美联储预计在7月维持利率不变，9月降息。总之，在货币政策 上，6月CPI报告将让人看清，特朗普和鲍威尔谁才是正确的。 美国CPI前瞻：数据好于/低于预期对货币政策的影响 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has revised its economic forecasts, now expecting US GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025, a downward adjustment of 0.2% from previous estimates [1] - The forecast for PCE inflation has been increased to 2.7%, up by 0.2% from earlier predictions [1] - Core PCE inflation expectations have also been raised to 3.1%, reflecting an increase of 0.3% from prior forecasts [1] Economic Indicators - US GDP growth forecast for 2025: 1.3% [1] - PCE inflation forecast: 2.7% [1] - Core PCE inflation forecast: 3.1% [1]

Core Insights - Most economists expect a significant jump in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that tariffs may contribute approximately 0.08 percentage points to the core CPI reading for June [1] - Specific categories potentially affected by tariffs include furniture, entertainment products, education-related items, communication devices, and personal care products [1]

在这次表决尘埃落定的前一天，外界已经通过多条渠道感受到了紧绷气氛。围绕该法案，无论是国会内部还是社会各界，意见分歧都很明显，不只是政客们 激烈争辩，甚至涉及到了商界巨头、前总统等人。人们的讨论范围逐渐从法案文本扩展到了美国现行政治体制的问题，许多人感到现有制度已经不足以反映 社会多元诉求。 当中最引人关注的就是马斯克的介入。他在法案通过前夜连发数十条社交媒体帖子，对该法案提出了极为苛刻的批评。他警告称，如果该法案同样顺利通过 众议院，他会立即着手创建新政党"美国党"，声称要为那些对现有两党格局不满的选民提供选择。马斯克此前还曾就建立新政党进行网络民意调查，竟有超 过八成参与者对这个想法表示支持。 马斯克的反对不仅因为政策方向，他对现有两党之争带来的分裂状态长期不满。美国政治场基本由民主党和共和党牢牢把控，实际上让许多民众在选举中难 以表达真正的意愿，只能无奈在两党之间做选择。马斯克声称，建立一个第三力量正是应对这种困境的出路。他把希望寄托在"美国党"身上，认为这能让政 治生态出现转机。 7月1日，美国参议院以51比50的微弱优势通过了被外界称为"大而美"的税收及支出法案。这场投票在压力和争执声中落下帷幕，最后 ...