市场消息：欧盟拟提出对美国的贸易提案，以推动谈判。 ...

智通财经5月21日电，欧盟为美国准备修改后的贸易提议，以推动与美国政府的谈判。 ...

回溯到5月12日，印度向世界贸易组织发出了提议，准备对部分美国商品加征报复性关税，罕见对美摆出了一副"强硬"姿态。并且，印度此举也被解读为"效 仿中国反制美国"，正好处在中美日内瓦会议取得成果后，一直富有大国野心的莫迪，便也想吃一波"红利"，可印度还没做出行动呢，转眼就先传来"戏剧性 反转"。当地时间5月15日，美国总统特朗普直接在卡塔尔打了莫迪的"脸"，称美国在印度做生意"非常困难"，还着指出印度对美国提出了一项协议，但具体 细节还不得而知。 智通财经消息，当地时间周四，美国总统特朗普表示，印度已经向美国提出了一项零关税的贸易协议。然而值得一提的是，就在两天前，印度才刚刚提出要 对部分美国制造的商品征收进口关税，以回应美国对印度钢铝产品征收的25%关税。这也一度被认为是印度谈判态度转为强硬的迹象。 特朗普和莫迪（资料图） 中美经贸会谈的成果，给了很多国家与美国硬刚的信心，其中似乎也包括印度。在中美发表联合声明的第二天，就有媒体曝出，印度一改与美国贸易谈判的 积极态度，反而放话要报复美国，印方官员告诉世贸组织，他们准备对美国出口至印度的部分商品加征关税，以反制美国对印度钢铝产品加征关税的措施。 印度学者声称， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in US-China trade negotiations indicate a temporary pause in tariff increases, but the situation remains tense as President Trump has set a 90-day deadline for a formal agreement, threatening to reinstate tariffs if no deal is reached [1][10]. Group 1: US-China Negotiations - The US and China have made initial progress in tariff discussions, with a joint statement to freeze some planned tariff increases [1]. - Trump’s ultimatum creates a clear choice for China: sign the agreement or face renewed tariffs, leaving only 84 days for negotiations [1][10]. - The pressure from the US is not only directed at China but also serves as a warning to other countries, including Japan, Germany, France, and India, to engage in substantial tariff negotiations within the same timeframe [3]. Group 2: Global Reactions and Implications - Many countries, except the UK, have not successfully concluded tariff negotiations with the US, opting for a "delay strategy" instead [5]. - The initial agreement between the US and China provides psychological comfort to other nations, encouraging them to adopt a firmer stance in their negotiations with the US [6]. - Trump's aggressive approach of unilaterally announcing new tariffs could backfire if multiple countries collectively refuse to comply, potentially putting the US in a vulnerable position [8]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - A major credit rating agency downgraded the US sovereign credit rating due to high fiscal deficits and rising debt risks, coinciding with Trump's push for tariffs [9]. - This downgrade has led to a slight decline in the dollar's value and an increase in bond yields, prompting international investors to reassess the credibility of US policies [9]. - The ongoing trade negotiations and the looming deadline raise questions about the effectiveness of unilateral pressure in resolving global trade issues [10].

在全球地缘政治局势和贸易前景持续存在不确定性的背景下，黄金周二继续保持上涨势头， 周二美盘短线拉升，向上触及3280美元/盎司，日内涨超1.5%。 现货白银日内涨超1%。 在中东，鉴于以色列扩大在加沙的军事行动并限制援助进入，英法加威胁要对其采取包括制裁在内具体行动。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡周一表示，以色列将接 管整个加沙地带，此前军方宣布将对哈马斯发动"前所未有的袭击"。 七国集团（G7）财长将于今日晚些时候在加拿大举行会谈，市场预计贸易谈判将成为焦点。花旗认为，美国可能会要求其他国家的货币升值，作为降低关 税谈判的一部分。这将促使美元被动贬值，从而有利于黄金。 瑞讯银行外部分析师Carlo Alberto De Casa表示，"金价维持在3200美元以上的超级区域，只要价格保持在该阈值上方，我们就可以开始看到进一步的复 苏。" 尽管金价创下历史纪录，中国上个月仍进口了近一年来最多的黄金。这得益于对贵金属的需求激增，促使央行放宽了对黄金流入的限制。 周二公布的海关数据显示，中国黄金进口总量达到127.5公吨，为11个月高点。这一数字较前月增长73%，即便在黄金接连触及历史高点（一度触及每盎司 3500美元）的情 ...

英国外交大臣拉米表示，以方对加沙的行动"不可容忍"，英国政府将宣布暂停与以色列的贸易协议谈 判。拉米还并补充说，英国政府还就以色列扩大加沙军事行动召见了以色列大使。(央视新闻) ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/5/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 725.00 | +2.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 734,150 | -3527↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 36.5 | +1.00↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -16926 | -3052↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） ...

包括纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在内的两位美联储官员暗示，鉴于尚不明朗的经济前景，政策制定者可能在 9月前不准备降低利率。 威廉姆斯周一在抵押贷款银行家协会组织的一次会议上表示："我们不可能在6月或7月就弄清楚发生了 什么。这将是一个收集数据、更清晰地了解情况并观察事态发展的过程。" 美联储最近的三次会议将分别在6月、7月和9月举行。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周一在接受采访时也表达了类似的观点，暗示在近期内不愿调整利率。 博斯蒂克则对通胀以及公众对未来物价上涨的预期表示特别担忧。他说："考虑到我们的两项使命，我 非常担心通胀方面，主要是因为我们看到预期出现了令人担忧的变化。" 博斯蒂克表示，如果特朗普政府正在进行的贸易谈判拖延下去，"那将把（明确形势的时间）进一步推 迟到夏季，在这种情况下，我们在之后的几个月内实际上都无法知道真正的影响会是什么。" 周一早些时候，博斯蒂克指出，政策制定者需要等待"三到六个月"才能看到事情如何解决。他说，贸易 谈判仍有可能更快地取得进展，关税降幅可能超过预期。 他说："在那种情况下，我们或许能够提前采取一些行动，因为在控制物价水平方面，我们可能不需要 做那么多工作。" 威廉姆斯也继续强 ...

日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正周二表示，东京在双边贸易谈判中要求美国取消关税的立场没有改变。 他说，如果达成协议会损害国家利益，日本不会急于达成贸易协议。 由于最初的快速达成协议的希望破灭，《日本经济新闻》上周报道称，日本可能会放宽要求，改为要求 美国削减而非取消关税。 一位知情谈判的知情人士告诉表示，日本正在考虑一揽子提案以获得美国的让步，这可能包括增加美国 玉米和大豆的进口、造船领域的技术合作，以及修订进口汽车的检验标准。 赤泽亮正周二在一次例行记者会上说："包括对等关税以及针对汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝等产品在 内的美国一系列关税令人遗憾。我们寻求审查并取消这些关税的立场没有改变。" 赤泽亮正表示，两国已于周一在华盛顿举行了工作层面的贸易谈判。他补充说，第三轮部长级谈判的日 程尚未确定。 日本共同社周二报道称，赤泽亮正将于本周前往华盛顿，参加可能于周五开始的第三轮谈判。 共同社援引未具名消息人士的话说，美国贸易代表格里尔（Jamieson Greer）预计将出席会谈，而财政 部长贝森特将缺席。 4月2日，美国总统特朗普对几乎所有国家征收了10%的关税，并对包括日本在内的许多主要贸易伙伴征 收了更高的关税。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. With the Fed likely not to cut rates before September, China's April economic data showing mixed signals, and inventory changes, the market's risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger. There are also concerns about a potential squeeze on short positions [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina is expected to remain strong in the near - term due to news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness expected. Attention should be paid to Yunnan's power policies, inventory trends, and international trade frictions [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Although nickel ore prices are firm, the cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. The US is taking a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, and the Fed may not cut rates before September. China's April consumption slightly exceeded expectations, but fixed - asset investment growth was low, and the real estate market showed signs of a decline. LME copper inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, Comex warehouse receipts increased by 650 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.72 tons. As copper prices rise, downstream demand may slow. The market is also concerned about a potential squeeze on short positions, so copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina closed at 3,128 yuan/ton, up 1.23%, and positions increased. Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,040 yuan/ton, down 0.62%, and positions decreased. Spot alumina prices rebounded slightly, and the premium on aluminum ingots widened. The news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts may drive alumina prices higher in the near - term. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with low inventory currently but potential weakening demand and cost reduction in the future. The price is expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.67% to $15,500/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.31% to 123,520 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: From May 16 to May 19, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 720 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 999 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 570 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 30 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 5,968 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased slightly. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened by 20 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 13,585 tons. The social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,175 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The price of nickel sulfate decreased by 300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%. LME inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.15 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%. LME inventory increased by 5 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 302 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46].