日本央行于6月17日结束为期两天的政策会议，预计在北京时间10:30至12:00公布最新决定。市场普遍 预测，短期利率将维持在0.5%的水平不变，显示出央行在当前复杂经济环境下的谨慎态度。此次会议 的核心议题之一是对现行购债缩减计划的检讨。消息人士透露，日本央行政策委员会倾向于保持本财年 （截至2026年3月）的购债缩减计划不变，但已开始为2026财年的政策调整铺路，计划从下一财年起放 缓量化紧缩的步伐。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 纸黄金今日需密切关注的关键阻力位区间为805-810，同时要留意的重要支撑位区间为750-755。 今日周二（6月17日）亚市盘中，纸黄金延续前一交易日下跌走势，截止发稿报782.97元/克，跌幅 0.32%，今日开盘报785.50元/克，最高触及785.67元/克，最低触及780.71元/克。 【要闻速递】 在全球经济不确定性不断加剧的背景下，日本央行正站在货币政策的十字路口。周二（6月17日），日 本央行结束为期两天的政策会议，备受市场瞩目的量化紧缩（QT）计划细节即将揭晓。据悉，日本央 行预计不会大幅调整今年的购债缩减计划，但从2026财年起或将放缓缩减购债的步伐，以避免市场剧 ...

金十数据6月17日讯，法兴银行预计日本央行6月可能会保持利率不变，且在近期超长期日本国债遭遇抛 售之际，日本央行将从明年4月开始放慢量化紧缩的步伐。日本的核心CPl可能在非新鲜食品和服务价格 上涨的推动下加速增长。 法兴银行：日本央行将按兵不动 并将从明年4月开始放慢量化紧缩步伐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering a slower pace of bond purchase reduction while maintaining the policy interest rate at 0.5%, which will be closely monitored by the bond market [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Meeting Insights - The BOJ's two-day monetary policy meeting is expected to conclude with the interest rate remaining unchanged, with a focus on the updated government bond purchase reduction plan [1]. - Approximately two-thirds of analysts anticipate that the bond purchase reduction starting in April next year will be less aggressive than the current pace [1][4]. - The BOJ has been reducing bond purchases since last summer, with a record reduction of 6.2 trillion yen in the first quarter due to slowed purchases and maturing debt [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The decision to extend the quantitative tightening (QT) plan into the next fiscal year is expected to impact global bond markets, especially after recent yield fluctuations [4]. - Analysts predict that the BOJ may reduce bond purchases by 2 trillion yen per quarter starting next spring, down from the current 4 trillion yen [7][8]. - The current yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds reached a historical high of 3.185%, indicating market instability [11]. Group 3: Economic Context and External Factors - Japan's Prime Minister is expected to discuss trade agreements with the U.S. President to mitigate economic uncertainties ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [12]. - The U.S. Treasury has urged the BOJ to tighten its policies to address yen weakness and balance bilateral trade [12]. - The BOJ's cautious stance on interest rate hikes reflects the high uncertainty in global trade negotiations and their economic implications [11].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is considering slowing down the pace of bond purchase reductions while keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged, which is causing significant tension in the global bond market [1] - All 53 analysts surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the interest rate at 0.5%, with a focus on the updated government bond purchase plan, where about two-thirds predict a smaller reduction starting in April [1] - The Bank of Japan's first extension of its quantitative tightening plan into the new fiscal year is aimed at addressing recent yield fluctuations, especially after the long-term Japanese government bond yield reached a historic high last month [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the new reduction pace may be set at 200 billion yen per quarter, with 40% of analysts expecting this figure, while 25% forecast a reduction of 300 billion yen, and 20% believe it will remain at 400 billion yen [2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated that the threshold for intervening in the bond market is high, as the central bank is working to restore market functionality damaged by past quantitative easing and yield curve control policies [2] - Following the policy statement from the Bank of Japan, market attention will shift to the Governor's press conference, where investors will look for hints regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike [2] Group 3 - In response to potential Senate elections next month, the Japanese Prime Minister is attempting to gain public support by addressing rising living costs, as consumer inflation in Japan remains the highest among G7 countries [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department has notably mentioned the Bank of Japan's policies in its semiannual currency report, urging the central bank to tighten policies to correct yen weakness and balance bilateral trade [3] - A former Bank of Japan official emphasized the need for the central bank to maintain a stance against rising core inflation, which is crucial for alleviating public dissatisfaction with living costs and serves as a key bargaining chip in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is likely to announce a significant slowdown in its government bond purchase tapering pace at the upcoming monetary policy meeting, as inflation continues to rise above the 2% target, leading to increased selling pressure on Japanese government bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Purchase Tapering - Since last summer, the Bank of Japan has reduced its monthly bond purchases by up to 400 billion yen (approximately 2.8 billion USD) each quarter [1]. - The former Bank of Japan executive suggests that the tapering pace may slow to about 200 billion yen per quarter, which is half of the current pace [2]. - The current plan aims to reduce monthly bond purchases to 2.9 trillion yen by early next year, potentially further decreasing to around 2 trillion yen a year later, which aligns with pre-2013 levels [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market is focused on whether the Bank of Japan will maintain its current tapering pace into the fiscal year 2026, which begins in April 2026 [1]. - If the Bank of Japan signals a slowdown in tapering, it may alleviate the ongoing concerns about a potential market crash triggered by the selling of Japanese government bonds [1]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during the upcoming meeting [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Actions - Japan's core inflation has remained at or above the 2% target for three consecutive years, indicating a strong inflationary trend [5]. - The next interest rate hike is expected to occur in the fall, contingent on external economic factors, including U.S. trade policies [3][5]. - The Bank of Japan is advised to proceed cautiously with policy normalization to avoid falling behind economic developments while managing uncertainties in the global market [5].

| 197 DE | ত্ৰি বিশ্ববিদ্যালয়ৰ প্ৰথম বিশ্ববিদ্যালয় সম্পাদক সংগ্ৰহ বিশ্ববিদ্যালয় সম্পাদক সংযোগ | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1m | 5m | 15m | 30m | 1H | 4H 1D | 1W | 1M | | | | N | | 144.20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 144.10 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 144.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 143.90 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 143.80 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43.70 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 143.60:00 | | | 11:25 | 12:50 | | 14:15 | | 15:40 | 17:05 | 18: ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - OECD has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.9%, with the US growth expectation slashed from 2.8% to 1.6% [1] - The economic outlook is pessimistic due to rising trade barriers and a decline in consumer spending in the US, impacting global growth [1] - Major economies like China, Europe, and Japan are also experiencing varying degrees of economic slowdown this year [1] Group 2: US Economic Policy Changes - The US government is shifting its focus away from non-US countries, canceling preferential tariffs and imposing new tariffs to boost domestic revenue [2] - This shift aims to stimulate domestic economic activity and enhance internal circulation capabilities [2] Group 3: Shenzhen AI Terminal Funding - Shenzhen's government has launched a funding program for the smart terminal industry, with a maximum grant of 20 million yuan available for various AI-related projects [3] - The funding focuses on the development and promotion of innovative consumer electronics, including smartphones and AI devices [3][4] Group 4: Japanese Demographic Trends - Japan's birth rate is projected to fall below 700,000 in 2024, marking a 5.7% decrease from the previous year, with a total fertility rate dropping to a historic low of 1.15 [9] - Despite increased marriage rates, the overall trend of declining birth rates continues, exacerbated by high living costs and a demanding work culture [9] Group 5: US Treasury Bond Buyback - The US Treasury conducted a record $10 billion buyback of government bonds, the largest single operation in history [7] - This move aims to stabilize the bond market and restore confidence amid rising concerns over the US deficit [8] Group 6: Honey Snow Group Stock Performance - Honey Snow Group's stock has reached new highs due to expected benefits from delivery platform subsidies, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts by Goldman Sachs [11] - The competitive landscape in the instant tea beverage market is intensifying, with potential for further price wars driven by delivery subsidies [12] Group 7: Accounting Firms and Regulatory Changes - Three accounting firms have voluntarily ceased their securities service operations, reflecting stricter regulatory requirements and past penalties for misconduct [13][14] - The new regulations aim to enhance transparency and accountability within the accounting industry, particularly regarding the auditing of public companies [15] Group 8: Market Trends - The stock market showed signs of recovery with significant trading volume, particularly in consumer sectors, indicating a potential shift towards domestic consumption [16] - The market is at a critical juncture, with the Shanghai Composite Index struggling to break through the 3400-point psychological barrier [17]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's debt crisis is emerging as a significant global concern, potentially more severe than Greece's situation, with Japan's GDP being overtaken by India's, indicating a shift in economic power dynamics [1][5][10]. Group 1: Japan's Debt Crisis - Japan's government is primarily responsible for the current debt crisis, stemming from "Abenomics," which involved negative interest rates and extensive government bond purchases by the Bank of Japan [5][10]. - The Bank of Japan holds 52% of the market share in Japanese government bonds, and its recent shift towards quantitative tightening has led to soaring bond yields, creating a dilemma for policymakers [5][6][10]. - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 260%, the highest among major economies, suggesting that bond yields have more room to rise compared to other countries [10][12]. Group 2: Global Economic Implications - The potential for a Japanese debt crisis raises concerns about its impact on global financial stability, particularly in relation to U.S. Treasury bonds, as Japan is one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt [6][15]. - The situation in Japan reflects broader fiscal challenges faced by many countries, with increasing fiscal deficits and limited borrowing capacity [7][10]. - Germany may emerge as a relative winner in this scenario, as it maintains a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100%, positioning it favorably compared to other nations [12][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming Japanese elections may prompt further fiscal stimulus measures, potentially exacerbating the debt situation if the government increases borrowing while the central bank reduces bond purchases [7][10]. - Investors are seeking a balance in long-term bond yields that aligns with policy rates, indicating a period of adjustment and uncertainty in the market [13][15]. - The crisis is seen as a culmination of long-term issues related to Abenomics and global inflationary pressures, highlighting vulnerabilities in the international financial system [16][17].

英国央行行长贝利：量化紧缩如何影响收益率曲线的走势非常重要。 ...

英国央行行长贝利收益率曲线的明显陡峭化并非由量化紧缩引起，但仍需考虑量化紧缩与此现象的相互 影响。 ...