当地时间1月31日，美国总统特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期尚未结束，但这一提前布局已在华 尔街引发争议。 现年55岁的沃什曾是美联储历史上最年轻的理事之一，以在2008年金融危机期间充当华尔街与华盛顿的"联络人"而闻名。（红星新闻相关报 道：） ▲沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席 有分析认为，如果仅仅将此视为一次人事更迭，便误读了特朗普政府的真正意图，沃什的上台可能意味着，为了重振美国制造业，特朗普政府正试图终 结"强势美元"时代，并将货币政策从属于国家增长战略，一个旨在通过弱势美元重振美国制造业的"海湖庄园三角战略"隐约成型。 "华盛顿-东京-首尔"三角 复刻"里根式"货币策略？ 2025年11月，沃什曾撰文抨击现任美联储领导层"思维僵化"，认为美联储高估了通胀风险，却低估了人工智能（AI）带来的生产力爆发。他主张即使在经济 增长强劲时也可以降息，因为AI的普及将降低单位劳动力成本，从而抑制通胀。 意大利资深评论员费德里科·兰皮尼分析，美元的未来或许并不由华盛顿的埃克尔斯大楼（美联储总部大楼）决定，而是由佛罗里达的海湖庄园决定。 分析称，这让人联想到1985年的"广场协 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Microsoft is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - Microsoft reported a strong overall performance in FY26Q2, with total revenue of $81.3 billion (up 17% YoY), operating profit of $38.3 billion (up 21% YoY), and net profit of $35.4 billion (up 47% YoY) [1][9] - Azure cloud growth is showing signs of marginal slowdown, with guidance for next quarter's capital expenditure expected to decrease sequentially [2][3] - The company is prioritizing resource allocation towards internal AI products like Copilot rather than cloud business, raising concerns about returns [2] - Microsoft cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, with Azure growing 39% YoY, and commercial bookings increasing by 228% [2][6] - The productivity and business processes segment saw revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), driven by M365 Copilot and E5 [7] - Capital expenditures reached a record high of $37.5 billion (up 66% YoY), with guidance indicating a sequential decline in FY26Q3 [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $81.3 billion, with a breakdown of $34.1 billion from productivity and business processes (up 16% YoY), $32.9 billion from intelligent cloud (up 29% YoY), and $14.3 billion from personal computing (down 3% YoY) [1][10] Business Segments - Intelligent Cloud: Revenue of $32.9 billion (up 29% YoY), with Azure growing 39% YoY, exceeding guidance of 37% [10] - Productivity and Business Processes: Revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), with M365 commercial cloud revenue growing 17% YoY [7] - Personal Computing: Revenue of $14.3 billion (down 3% YoY), with mixed performance across segments [10] Capital Expenditure and Guidance - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $37.5 billion, with a significant portion allocated to short-term assets like GPUs and CPUs [8] - Guidance for FY26Q3 indicates a sequential decline in capital expenditures due to normal fluctuations in cloud infrastructure construction [8] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for the next quarter include intelligent cloud revenue of $34.1-34.4 billion (up 27%-28% YoY) and productivity and business revenue of $34.25-34.55 billion (up 15%-16% YoY) [3]

Core Insights - DeepSeek represents a significant advancement in China's AI capabilities, particularly in embodied AI, which integrates AI into hardware systems like robots and drones, allowing for environmental awareness and autonomous decision-making [1][3] - The article emphasizes that China's long-term, comprehensive policy efforts have positioned it as a leader in AI development, with a focus on embodied AI potentially yielding substantial economic and geopolitical advantages [1][4] Industry Focus - China is prioritizing the development of AI-driven robots, aiming to integrate embodied AI into core industries to enhance productivity and military capabilities [4] - The country is leveraging its existing manufacturing strengths to become a global leader in embodied AI systems, which could automate physical tasks across multiple industries [4] - Chinese companies such as AgiBot, UBTech, and Unitree are already leading the global market in humanoid robot shipments, with AgiBot accounting for approximately 5,100 units (39% market share) [5] Challenges and Strategic Insights - Despite facing challenges such as limited access to advanced AI chips and reliance on Western suppliers for high-end sensors, the article warns against underestimating China's ability to overcome these obstacles [7] - The U.S. is criticized for its strategic neglect of embodied AI, focusing resources on a few private companies and lacking a cohesive government policy, which could hinder its competitive edge [7] - The article calls for the U.S. to enhance its analytical capabilities regarding China's AI policies and progress, suggesting that Silicon Valley must mobilize talent and capital to transition embodied AI from research to large-scale market applications [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $288.00, maintaining a valuation of 34.8x FY26E PE [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $143.8 billion for Q1 FY26, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 4%. This growth was primarily driven by strong sales of the iPhone 17 series, which saw a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for the quarter was 48.2%, with guidance for the next quarter indicating a maintained gross margin of 48%-49%, which is better than market expectations amid rising storage prices [1][2]. - The company has established a partnership with Google to develop next-generation AI models, which is expected to enhance service monetization and maintain high-margin revenue streams in the AI era [1][4]. Performance Review and Guidance - iPhone sales were robust, with actual shipments reaching 81.3 million units in CY4Q25, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and revenue from iPhone sales reached $85.3 billion, marking a 23% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) of iPhones increased by 17.6% due to strong sales in regions like China, the US, and the Middle East [2]. - For Q2 guidance, the company expects iPhone demand to remain strong, supporting a revenue growth of 13%-16% year-on-year [2]. Storage and Supply Chain Impact - The impact of storage price increases on gross margin is expected to be more pronounced in Q2, although the company has indicated that it has inventory buffers to mitigate immediate effects [3]. - The company is currently facing supply constraints in System on Chip (SoC) production due to strong iPhone demand, with the main bottleneck being TSMC's 3nm advanced process capacity [3]. AI Collaboration and Service Innovation - Service revenue reached $30.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with all segments including advertising, cloud services, and payment services hitting record highs [4]. - The collaboration with Google on AI models is expected to enhance the capabilities of Apple's services, including personalized Siri services, while maintaining user privacy standards [4]. Profit Forecast - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 at $121.7 billion, $129.8 billion, and $140.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 6.7%, and 8.4% [5].

接下来市场或会继续在"美联储降息与否"的预期拉锯中加大震荡。 （资料图） 特约评论员 熊夏柠 根据新华社，当地时间1月30日上午，美国总统特朗普提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什 （Kevin Warsh）出任下一任美联储主席。在程序方面，如果提名能获得共和党控制的参议院确认，沃 什将会在现任美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）5月任期结束后接任美联储主席。 以往华尔街的投资者和策略师认为沃什是"鹰派"，但其认为美联储应该降息的主张与特朗普一致。特朗 普选择沃什为美联储主席，应该说是其政策意图的体现。 沃什主张美联储降息，支持宽松的货币政策，特别是在当前美国通胀基本受控的情况下应该降息，这契 合特朗普屡次要求以低利率来刺激增长的目标。虽然沃什曾在奥巴马时期担任美联储理事，也一度被市 场解读为"鹰派"，但他对美联储的批评态度和货币政策主张，应该是其成为提名人选的重要原因之一。 出生于1970年的沃什，有着哈佛大学法学博士学位，曾在摩根士丹利担任高管，与华尔街关系密切，金 融实践经验丰富，经历过2008年全球金融危机期间的"洗礼"，当时他主张快速稳定市场。在35岁时他就 被任命为美联储理事，足以看出 ...

特约评论员熊夏柠 根据新华社，当地时间1月30日上午，美国总统特朗普提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什 （Kevin Warsh）出任下一任美联储主席。在程序方面，如果提名能获得共和党控制的参议院确认，沃 什将会在现任美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）5月任期结束后接任美联储主席。 以往华尔街的投资者和策略师认为沃什是"鹰派"，但其认为美联储应该降息的主张与特朗普一致。特朗 普选择沃什为美联储主席，应该说是其政策意图的体现。 沃什主张美联储降息，支持宽松的货币政策，特别是在当前美国通胀基本受控的情况下应该降息，这契 合特朗普屡次要求以低利率来刺激增长的目标。虽然沃什曾在奥巴马时期担任美联储理事，也一度被市 场解读为"鹰派"，但他对美联储的批评态度和货币政策主张，应该是其成为提名人选的重要原因之一。 出生于1970年的沃什，有着哈佛大学法学博士学位，曾在摩根士丹利担任高管，与华尔街关系密切，金 融实践经验丰富，经历过2008年全球金融危机期间的"洗礼"，当时他主张快速稳定市场。在35岁时他就 被任命为美联储理事，足以看出其在金融市场的深耕和历练颇为丰富。 加大流入中国市场，尤其是科技类与出口型企 ...

Economic Overview - Producer prices increased by 3% year-over-year in December, indicating stronger inflation than anticipated [1] - The Federal Reserve's inflation forecasts have been criticized for being inaccurate, contributing to the current inflationary environment [2][3] Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump has nominated Kevin Worsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, which has raised concerns about the Fed's ability to manage inflation effectively [2][4] - The current administration aims to ensure a smooth confirmation process for Worsh despite some Republican pushback regarding previous Fed actions [9] Interest Rates and Economic Growth - The administration believes that the Fed has been "behind the curve" in addressing inflation and that there is potential for significant economic growth driven by supply-side factors, particularly from advancements in AI [10][11] - There is a belief that interest rates could potentially be lowered to 1% due to the positive impact of AI on productivity and GDP growth [13] Job Market and AI Impact - While AI is expected to cause job dislocations, it is also anticipated to increase overall incomes and GDP, leading to new job opportunities for displaced workers [15][16] - The current unemployment rate remains low, suggesting that the job market is resilient despite changes brought about by AI [16] Inflation Trends - Recent increases in producer prices, particularly in commodities like gold and copper, have raised questions about the sustainability of inflation levels [17][18] - Despite the recent producer price increases, the overall inflation numbers in the U.S. are still close to target, allowing room for potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [18][19]

特朗普称，沃什没有向自己承诺降息，但他"当然想降息"。"新美联储通讯社"认为，沃什接替鲍威尔可能是自沃尔克就任以 来美联储最重大的权力交接。自1987年格林斯潘接替沃尔克以来，每位联储主席都强调与前任的延续性。沃什则承诺明确 打破此传统，全面重新思考美联储的资产持有、政策框架、经济角色和与行政部门的关系。 美国总统特朗普看来对他挑选的"鲍威尔接班人"很满意，认为前美联储理事沃什（Kevin Warsh）不需要他施压就会自行降 息。 讽刺的是，在2010年沃什还担任美联储理事时，他曾发表过一篇题为《独立性颂歌》的演讲，专门论述美联储的独立性。 他当时对货币政策专家听众表示："任何不当影响美联储政策的企图都将遭到美联储官员和市场参与者的强烈反击。" 新主席面临多重挑战 据1月30日周五美股午盘时段的报道，特朗普在白宫的办公室表示，沃什会降低利率，无需白宫施压。特朗普称，沃什没 有向自己承诺降息，但他"当然想降息"。当被问及是否与沃什讨论过此事时，特朗普表示想"保持事情的美好和纯粹"。 周五美股盘前，特朗普在社交媒体宣布，将提名沃什任美联储主席，接替2026年5月任期届满的现任主席鲍威尔。特朗普 自称与沃什相识已久 ...

数据中心的服务器对微小积层陶瓷电容器的需求高涨 我们从今年起，在小松村田制作所（石川县小松市）进入量产阶段的电源模块也有望发展成主力产品。 目前已经在准备向一家大型云服务企业供货。这是采用自主小型化技术的产品，可以缩短芯片与电源之 间的距离（通过减少电力损耗来实现节能），有助于提高供电效率。 村田制作所社长中岛规巨对AI领域的业务增长充满期待 村田制作所社长中岛规巨：不仅需要检查矿山，还必须核查精炼工序，并且还需要获得使用这些稀土制 造产品的客户的认可。这是一项大约需要3年左右的长期工作，但我们正在加快进度推进…… 村田制作所正在扩大人工智能（AI）相关业务。村田制作所认为，随着AI应用的发展，数据中心服务 器对电路中用于储存和释放电能的积层陶瓷电容器的需求将增长。村田制作所还将开始量产为图形处理 器（GPU，AI的心脏部位）进行电压转换并供电的电源模块。日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网） 就今年的展望采访了村田制作所的社长中岛规巨。 记者 ：您如何看待2026年的业务环境？ 中岛规巨 ：为处理使用AI所需的海量信息而增设新数据中心的投资在全球范围内处于扩张周期之中。 数据中心的每台服务器需要配备1.5万至2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has stirred significant reactions in global financial markets, reflecting both investor anticipation and concern regarding his proposed policies [3][10]. Group 1: Kevin Warsh's Background - Kevin Warsh, born in 1970, is the youngest candidate among the nominees for the Federal Reserve Chair, with a diverse background spanning Wall Street, the White House, and the Federal Reserve [4]. - His career includes roles at Morgan Stanley, serving as a special assistant to President George W. Bush, and being one of the youngest governors in Federal Reserve history during the 2008 financial crisis [5][6]. Group 2: Proposed Policies - Warsh advocates for lowering interest rates while simultaneously pushing for an aggressive reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, a seemingly contradictory policy stance [7][8]. - He believes that current interest rates are too high and that advancements in artificial intelligence will suppress inflation, allowing for lower rates to stimulate the economy [8]. - Warsh is a critic of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies and seeks to return the central bank to a more traditional, "leaner" state through aggressive balance sheet reduction [8][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Warsh's nomination, gold and silver prices dropped sharply due to expectations of a more hawkish monetary policy, while the dollar experienced a rebound [10][11]. - The market's reaction indicates a recalibration of expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy path, moving away from a simplistic view of continuous rate cuts [11]. Group 4: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Warsh's nomination raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as he has a history of criticizing the institution and strong ties to President Trump [12][13]. - His ability to maintain the Fed's independence while addressing political pressures will be a critical focus for markets in the coming years [14]. Group 5: Implications for Various Assets - In the short term, the dollar may benefit from Warsh's cautious approach and balance sheet reduction expectations, but a long-term trend of dollar depreciation could emerge if a rate-cutting cycle begins [15]. - Precious metals like gold and silver face immediate pressure due to reduced rate-cut expectations and a stronger dollar, although long-term support factors remain intact [16]. - The impact on U.S. equities may be complex, with potential volatility in high-growth sectors sensitive to interest rates [17]. - U.S. Treasury yields may see a steepening of the yield curve, with short-term rates declining due to rate cut expectations while long-term rates rise due to balance sheet concerns [18]. Group 6: Future Challenges - Warsh's confirmation process in the Senate may face hurdles, and even if confirmed, he will need to navigate internal and external pressures while balancing his dual policy objectives [19][20][22]. - Establishing effective communication with the market will be crucial, as his previous criticisms of the Fed's guidance suggest a potential shift in how the Fed interacts with investors [23]. Conclusion - The transition in leadership at the Federal Reserve signifies a more complex era for monetary policy, moving away from straightforward narratives of easing or tightening, requiring markets to adapt to a more nuanced policy framework [24][25].