（原标题：伟伟道来 ｜"美国围墙"是影响有限，还是影响深远） 7月22日，美日达成关税协议；7月27日，美欧达成关税协议；7月28日、29日，中美在瑞典展开新一轮 经贸会谈。 随着美日、美欧达成协议，中美会谈持续推进，可以得出一个基本判断：由美国总统特朗普于今年4月2 日发起的关税战，已经进入下半场。 简要评述如下： 第一，15%的关税成为最大公约数。 对于日本的输美商品，特朗普曾威胁征收25%的关税；对于欧盟的输美商品，特朗普曾威胁征收30%的 关税。关税税率最终落到15%，应该是特朗普的底线，也是日本、欧盟能够接受的。尽管日本、欧盟内 部有一些声音表达不满，但这些声音更多的是表明政治立场和态度，发出这些声音的人大概内心也清 楚，15%的税率已经是日欧能够争取到的最好的结果。 第二，1.9万亿美元支票最终能兑现多少仍然是一个未知数。 在协议中，日本承诺向美国投资5500亿美元，欧盟承诺增加对美投资6000亿美元，并在3年内购买价值 7500亿美元的美国能源产品，三项相加总计1.9万亿美元。 面对这1.9万亿美元，特朗普的喜悦之情溢于言表。7月22日，特朗普通过社交平台发文称："在我的指 示下，日本将向美国投 ...

7月22日，美日达成关税协议；7月27日，美欧达成关税协议；7月28日、29日，中美在瑞典展开新一轮 经贸会谈。 要知道，日欧上万亿美元的投资，是要落实到具体项目上的，这个过程是复杂的、充满变数的。 另外，关于欧盟购买美国能源产品，每年2500亿美元，3年总计7500亿美元，这个交易也被批评为不现 实。 相关数据显示，2024年欧盟从美国进口的能源总额不到800亿美元，美国能源出口额略高于3300亿美 元。在这个背景下，欧盟的能源进口不可能一下子提高那么多，美国也无法在短期内供应这么多能源产 品给欧盟。 随着美日、美欧达成协议，中美会谈持续推进，可以得出一个基本判断：由美国总统特朗普于今年4月2 日发起的关税战，已经进入下半场。 简要评述如下： 第一，15%的关税成为最大公约数。 对于日本的输美商品，特朗普曾威胁征收25%的关税；对于欧盟的输美商品，特朗普曾威胁征收30%的 关税。关税税率最终落到15%，应该是特朗普的底线，也是日本、欧盟能够接受的。尽管日本、欧盟内 部有一些声音表达不满，但这些声音更多的是表明政治立场和态度，发出这些声音的人大概内心也清 楚，15%的税率已经是日欧能够争取到的最好的结果。 第 ...

与此同时，现货黄金也从7月22日的3431高点后连续4个交易日下跌，28日收盘报3314.440美元/盎司，6天跌超110美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，今年初尤其是4月初以来， 关税战和全球贸易战成为影响金价的重要因素，贸易战激烈时金价上行，达成关税协议、贸易战缓和时金价明 显回落。 美日、美欧之间关税谈判落定，市场对全球经济风险判断转向，作为避险资产的黄金投资热度下降。 此外，地缘政治风险上升时金价抬升，缓和时金价下行，过去几年地缘政治风险一直是影响金价的主要因素。经济数据和货币政策也有影响。美国就业率 好转、美元指数上升，对黄金价格形成压制。 29日，国内金饰价格跟跌，多品牌金饰价格均跌破千元。周生生足金饰品标价994元/克，较7月23日1029元/克的价格下跌35元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价 995元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌28元/克；周大福足金饰品标价998元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌25元/克。 金价短期下行，受到多重因素影响。 从7月23日至28日，COMEX黄金期货价格连续4个交易日下跌，最低触及3300美元/盎司，28日收报3310.0美元/盎司。 专家提醒，未来黄金价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Polish Prime Minister emphasizes that both sides of the Atlantic will face significant losses, but a stringent trade agreement is preferable to a meaningless tariff war among allies [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the importance of trade agreements in mitigating economic losses [1] - It suggests that engaging in trade negotiations is more beneficial than imposing tariffs that do not yield meaningful results [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold bars in China has stabilized around 700 CNY per gram since mid-March, with experts suggesting a long-term upward trend despite recent fluctuations [1] Group 1: Current Price Trends - Domestic investment gold bar prices have been hovering around the 700 CNY per gram mark for over four months, having previously exceeded 800 CNY per gram [1] - Last week, gold prices retreated from a high of 3400 USD per ounce, indicating volatility influenced by trade tensions [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Trade wars and tariff disputes have significantly impacted gold prices, with prices rising during intense trade conflicts and falling when agreements are reached [1] - Experts predict that ongoing geopolitical, economic, and military tensions between nations will continue to support a long-term increase in gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the recent trade agreement between the US and the EU, which has been viewed internally within the EU as a "bad deal" despite temporarily stabilizing the global economy [1][5] - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on most EU products exported to the US, which is higher than the EU's initial target of 10% but lower than Trump's initial proposal of 20% [3][5] - The EU is expected to increase its investment in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products, although the specifics of these investments remain unclear [3][6] Group 2 - There are significant discrepancies in the statements made by US and EU leaders regarding the agreement, particularly concerning pharmaceutical products and steel and aluminum tariffs [3][4] - The financial markets reacted positively to the announcement, with the euro appreciating against the dollar and stock indices rising, indicating a temporary relief from trade conflict uncertainties [4][5] - Analysts express caution, noting that the details of the agreement, such as the specific products affected by tariffs and the implications of the $600 billion investment, could lead to further complications [4][6] Group 3 - The agreement has been criticized within the EU, with leaders expressing dissatisfaction over the concessions made, particularly the 15% tariff which is significantly higher than previous rates [5][6] - The potential economic impact of the tariffs on the EU's GDP is under scrutiny, with estimates suggesting a 0.4% impact from a 10% tariff, and the new agreement may lead to a reassessment of these figures [6][7] - The trade dynamics may shift as the US could use the 15% tariff as a template for negotiations with other countries, potentially leading to a broader trade strategy that favors the US [7][8]

Group 1 - The EU has proposed a historic countermeasure against US tariffs, imposing a maximum 30% tariff on $930 billion worth of US goods, including over 2,000 items such as Boeing aircraft and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, effective August 7 [1] - The urgency of negotiations between the US and EU is highlighted by Trump's shift in tone, indicating a potential for a significant trade agreement, as the EU's countermeasures coincide with ongoing US-China trade talks [3] - The US is attempting to leverage negotiations by linking the reduction of EU auto tariffs to the lifting of US beef import restrictions, which has been perceived as an unfair tactic [3] Group 2 - The UK and India have signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), aiming to enhance their trade relations and strengthen their negotiating position with the US, particularly post-Brexit [5] - The UK will eliminate tariffs on 99% of Indian goods, while India will reduce tariffs on 90% of UK goods, with significant reductions on British whisky, which previously faced a 150% tax [5] - Concerns have been raised regarding the potential impact of India's rare earth alliance on US defense supply chains, particularly affecting the production of F-35 fighter jets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes that there are no winners in a tariff war and that unilateral actions do not benefit any party involved [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs on Brazil, which has raised concerns regarding trade relations [1] - The Chinese government has previously stated its position on the U.S. tariffs against Brazil [1] Group 2: Multilateral Trade System - China expresses willingness to collaborate with Brazil and other Latin American and Caribbean countries, as well as BRICS nations, to uphold a multilateral trade system centered around the World Trade Organization [1] - The emphasis is placed on defending international fairness and justice in trade practices [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, the gold price soared and then dropped significantly. The New York gold price fell back to $3,338 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price dropped to 773 yuan per gram [3] 2. Interest Rate Expectations - On July 24, Trump met with Fed Chairman Powell to discuss interest rates. Powell and most Fed policymakers have been cautious about rate cuts due to concerns about the lagged impact of Trump's tariff hikes on inflation [4] - According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 95.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July and a 58.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. Traders expect the Fed to cut rates more aggressively next year, with a projected 76 - basis - point cut [4] 3. Tariff Situation - Trump said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries but would be willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US. He also mentioned sending nearly 200 tariff letters and reaching tariff agreements with Japan and the EU (15% tariff on the EU) [7] - Overall, Trump's tariff war has less impact than expected, and the market has adapted. The US stock market has continued to rise, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined [7] 4. Economic Data - As of the week ending July 19, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, falling for the sixth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since 2022. This reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut rates in the short term, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [7] 5. Geopolitical Situation - Sino - US relations have eased, and the impact of the global tariff war has weakened. The new conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has limited impact on the financial market due to their small economic scale and the possibility of peace talks [7] 6. Market Outlook - Risk - assets such as the stock market are favored again, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price on the weekly chart has soared and then dropped significantly, lacking upward momentum in the short term and returning to a box - consolidation pattern [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has successfully leveraged its tariff war to gain significant concessions from the EU, allowing for increased access to the $20 trillion European market and commitments for military purchases, which benefits both the U.S. economy and Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia [1][9]. Group 1: Tariff Strategy - The U.S. has shifted its strategy from providing aid to selling military equipment to the EU, which is now required to purchase U.S. weapons to support Ukraine against Russia [3]. - The U.S. threatened to impose a 30% tariff, which pressured the EU to agree to a reduced tariff rate of 15%, demonstrating the effectiveness of U.S. tactics [3][6]. - The EU's acceptance of the 15% tariff is seen as a significant concession, as a 30% tariff would have been detrimental to the EU [6]. Group 2: EU's Position and Response - The concessions made by the EU highlight an unequal power dynamic between the EU and the U.S., with the EU historically supporting U.S. foreign strategies [8]. - The leadership of the EU Commission, particularly Ursula von der Leyen, has been criticized for prioritizing U.S. interests over those of the EU during negotiations [8]. - There is growing discontent among EU member states regarding the agreements made with the U.S., indicating internal divisions and dissatisfaction with the current trade dynamics [8][9].