Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for July, along with average hourly wage growth on a monthly and yearly basis, are set to be released shortly [1]

北京时间20:30，重磅非农登场！市场普遍预计7月就业增长将放缓，美联储当下更重视的失业率料微 升。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anticipation surrounding the upcoming non-farm payroll (NFP) report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job growth for July [1] - The market is concerned about a potential slight increase in the unemployment rate, which is currently a key focus for the Federal Reserve [1] - The article suggests that the hawkish comments from Jerome Powell have created volatility in the market, making the NFP report a critical event that could either stabilize or further disrupt market conditions [1]

4. 汇丰银行：+4.2%；荷兰国际：+4.2%；摩根大通：+4.2%；杰富瑞集团：+4.2%；劳埃德银行： +4.2%； 5. 瑞穗银行：+4.2%；Monex集团：+4.2%；穆迪分析：+4.2%；摩根士丹利：+4.2%；野村证券： +4.2%； 金十整理：机构预期今晚20:30公布的美国7月失业率（前值：+4.1%） 1. 丰业银行：+4.0%；法巴银行：+4.1%；贝伦贝格：+4.1%；凯投宏观：+4.1%；加皇银行：+4.1%； 2. 荷兰银行：+4.2%；澳新银行：+4.2%；巴克莱银行：+4.2%；美国银行：+4.2%；帝商银行： +4.2%； 8. 富国银行：+4.2%；西太银行：+4.2%；丹斯克银行：+4.2%；大和资本：+4.3%。[路透预期：+4.2%] 3. 花旗集团：+4.2%；联信银行：+4.2%；德商银行：+4.2%；高盛集团：+4.2%；赫莱巴银行： +4.2%； 6. 牛津经济：+4.2%；潘森宏观：+4.2%；三井住友：+4.2%；桑坦德银行：+4.2%；渣打银行： +4.2%； 7. 斯蒂费尔：+4.2%；道明证券：+4.2%；瑞银集团：+4.2%；裕信银行：+4.2% ...

Group 1 - The resilient U.S. labor market is now the primary determinant of monetary policy, indicating that strong employment data in July could eliminate expectations for a rate cut in September and reduce the likelihood of further easing this year [1] - Powell emphasized that the next steps for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will depend on overall economic data, acknowledging reasons for easing but highlighting the importance of the unemployment rate [1][2] - The unemployment rate has remained stable between 4.0% and 4.2% for over a year, suggesting the economy is at full employment, making it difficult to justify a rate cut [2] Group 2 - Following the FOMC decision, market reactions included a drop in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a strengthening dollar, reflecting investors' interpretation of Powell's signals [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now seen as a coin toss, indicating a shift in market expectations towards only one rate cut this year [2] - Powell's comments on inflation, with core CPI at 2.9% and core PCE at 2.8%, support a moderate tightening stance [2] Group 3 - Price risks remain due to the delayed effects of tariffs, with Powell suggesting that if tariffs continue to push prices higher, the Fed may need to wait until the impact subsides before easing, potentially delaying any rate cuts until next year [3] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly decreased, with projections dropping from over 130 basis points to around 35 basis points for the year [3][4] Group 4 - The futures curve indicates that by May next year, when Powell's term ends, only 65 basis points of rate cuts are priced in [4] - While it is unlikely that there will be no rate cuts during Powell's remaining term, it is not impossible [5]

分析：要让美联储降息，失业率得上升才行 金十数据8月1日讯，据外媒分析报道，鲍威尔本周多次对记者表示，他认为目前衡量经济健康状况的最 佳指标是失业率。他指出，6月份的失业率为4.1%，在过去一年里几乎没有变化，而通胀率则离美联储 的目标更远了一些。因此，他表示，大多数决策者认为这一情况说明没有理由调整利率。与此同时，鲍 威尔拒绝预先承诺9月降息，而周四的通胀数据又高于预期，给何时恢复降息的前景蒙上了阴影。美国 劳工统计局周五将公布7月份的失业率数据，美联储不太可能在劳动力市场没有恶化的情况下降息，要 让美联储降息，失业率得上升才行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of setting interest rates by the Federal Reserve amid conflicting economic signals, highlighting the uncertainty in the current economic landscape [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is perceived to be in two distinct scenarios, with Federal Reserve officials needing months to determine which one is accurate [3]. - One scenario suggests that underlying economic weakness may soon become apparent despite stable economic data, while the other posits that investments in artificial intelligence and household wealth growth could help the economy overcome trade war challenges [3]. - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is betting that the true state of the U.S. economy will reveal itself in the next two months [3]. Group 2: Labor Market and Consumer Spending - Powell views the low and stable unemployment rate as a sign of economic stability, but it may mask a deteriorating labor market [3]. - There are signs of weakening consumer spending in the U.S., with a decline in service-related expenditures such as hotels, flights, and dining for three consecutive months, marking the first occurrence since 2008 [3]. - Credit card spending among low-income households has also decreased for the first time in over a year [3]. Group 3: Counterarguments and Economic Resilience - Some analysts argue that the warning signals may be mere noise rather than real risks, suggesting that historical economic resilience could continue despite emerging negative factors [4]. - Key factors supporting the economy include a boom in AI investments and wealth accumulation from rising home prices and stock portfolios, which may sustain consumer spending among affluent households [4]. - The article notes that unless unforeseen shocks occur, such as a sharp rise in long-term government debt yields, a comprehensive recession in the U.S. seems unlikely [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell appears to be in no rush to seek answers regarding the economic situation, emphasizing the need for continued observation and learning [4]. - Federal Reserve officials believe they can afford to wait at least two more months to assess the impact of tariffs on economic activity and inflation [4].

日本总务省8月1日公布的6月完全失业率（季节调整值）为2.5%，与上月持平。 责任编辑：王珂 ...

每经AI快讯，8月1日最新披露数据显示，日本6月失业率为2.5%，预期2.5%，前值2.5%。 ...

智通财经8月1日电，日本6月失业率为2.5%，预期2.50%，前值2.50%。 ...