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广发期货《农产品》日报-20250702

Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 06:20

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil may briefly surge upward after oscillating and consolidating, while Dalian palm oil futures may briefly dip to 8,200 yuan. For soybeans, the USDA quarterly report has limited impact on CBOT soybeans, and the market expects ample supply and future high yields, but the report may show a decrease in US soybean oil inventory at the end of May. Domestically, the demand for soybean oil is weak, inventories are increasing, and the decline in spot basis quotes is limited [1]. Corn - The overall bullish trend of corn remains unchanged, but the pace is slow. In the short - term, the spot price is generally stable, with the price in the Northeast remaining firm and that in North China showing local declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap supports the upward movement of corn prices. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy information [3]. Meal - Supported by US soybean oil, US soybeans strengthened last night. The USDA's new planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has increased, and the market is showing signs of stabilization. In China, the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal are rising, the basis is stable, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. There are opportunities to buy at low points [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs has not escaped the oscillating pattern. The short - term sentiment may be strong, but the 09 contract is under pressure due to the postponed inventory of live pigs [8][9]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply is becoming more abundant, limiting the rebound. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment for some time, but considering future imports, the market is expected to turn bearish after the rebound [12]. Cotton - The contradiction of tight old - crop inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, and the demand is sluggish. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [13]. Eggs - The supply of eggs in China is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short term, and remain stable later [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan on July 1, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,972 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 268 yuan, up 4.69%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20,582 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan on July 1, up 0.36%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,336 yuan, up 0.07%. The basis was 94 yuan, up 34.29%. The import cost was 8,719.3 yuan, and the import profit was - 383 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,630 yuan on July 1, up 0.52%. The futures price of OI2509 was 9,477 yuan, up 0.66%. The basis was - 12 yuan, down 7.27% [1]. Corn - **Corn**: The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port was 2,383 yuan, up 0.21%. The 9 - 1 spread was 103 yuan, up 0.98%. The import profit was 580 yuan, up 3.52%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 182.87% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,743 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was - 23 yuan, down 76.92%. The 9 - 1 spread was 65 yuan, up 8.33% [3]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,840 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2,961 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 121 yuan, unchanged. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in August was 111 yuan, up 3.7% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 0.81%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,586 yuan, up 0.54%. The basis was - 96 yuan, up 5.88%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in November was 107 yuan, down 47.03% [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract price was 11,850 yuan, up 9.72%. The price of the 2507 contract was 13,935 yuan, up 0.61%, and that of the 2509 contract was 13,865 yuan, down 0.04%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan, down 450% [8]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions increased, with the price in Henan at 15,050 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Shandong at 15,250 yuan, up 150 yuan; etc. [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,596 yuan, down 0.57%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan, down 0.55%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 15.70 cents per pound, down 3.03% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,090 yuan, up 0.16%. The import cost of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4,334 yuan, down 1.90% [12]. - **Industry**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the sales increased by 23.07% [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan, up 0.04%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,755 yuan, down 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton was 67.96 cents per pound, down 0.12% [13]. - **Spot**: The arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,187 yuan, up 0.46%. The CC Index 3128B was 15,212 yuan, up 0.38% [13]. - **Industry**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory decreased by 1.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,684 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.14%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,568 yuan per 500 kg, up 0.06% [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area was 2.60 yuan per catty, down 1.43%. The base price was - 964 yuan per 500 kg, down 4.31% [14].