期货热点追踪 花旗预言"第三季度铜价崩盘"：8800美元防线能守住吗？ 相关链接 ...

铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 铜价高位震荡延续，内外库存分化牵制涨幅 2025年5月14日，SHFE铜主力合约价格小幅走高至78630元/吨，较前一日上涨 0.95%，LME铜价同步上扬至9624.5美元/吨。国内升水铜现货贴水扩大至-15元/ 吨，平水铜和湿法铜贴水也分别加深至-40元/吨和-80元/吨，现货市场压力增 加；而LME（0-3）升水从5月8日的23.87美元/吨回落至19.17美元/吨。 持仓与成交 SHFE铜持仓量持续收缩，5月14日库存降至185575吨，较前一周减少2.15%，但 LME铜库存大幅攀升至50069吨，环比激增71.72%。成交量方面，BC铜主力合 约成交16871手，持仓量增至2471手，资金活跃度提升。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 短期供给扰动加剧：2025年4月中国废产阳极铜企业开工率环比下降5.33个百分 点至44.32%，主因再生铜原料紧张，而矿产阳极铜开工率小幅回升2.50个百分点 至72.40%，原料来源分化明显。赤峰车户沟铜钼矿新签项目（储量9亿吨）及美 国阿拉斯加Ambler矿区法案推进，预示中长期矿山产能释放潜力，但短期内难 以缓解再生铜 ...

摩根大通预计2025年下半年铜价将平均达到9,225美元/吨。 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.4%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点，连续两个月位于扩张区间，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78480，基差-460，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：5月14日铜库存减4075至185575吨，上期所铜库存较上周减8602吨至80705吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，中美经贸缓和，铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 15 日 铜：美元下测后回升，限制价格上涨 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,940 | 1.09% | 78650 | -0.37% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,592 | -0.34% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 112,380 | 21,504 | 193,911 | 11,971 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 8,755 | -1,420 | 291,000 | 1,256 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 50,069 | 20,912 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 185,575 | -4,075 | 41.84% | -1.01% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of U.S. tariffs on copper imports, initiated by former President Trump, which has led to dramatic fluctuations in copper prices and inventory movements in the global market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Market Reactions - On February 10, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, which quickly raised domestic prices [1]. - Following this, on February 26, the U.S. government extended tariffs to copper, marking it as a new battleground in the trade war [1][2]. - By March 4, the COMEX-LME copper price spread surged to $950/ton, prompting traders to transfer LME Asian inventories to the U.S., with a single-day drop of 9,050 tons in LME Asian inventory [1][2]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Inventory Changes - On March 13, copper prices soared to $5.25/pound (approximately $11,574/ton), a 25% increase from the 2024 average, while U.S. copper imports surged to 500,000 tons, far exceeding the normal level of 70,000 tons [2]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 12%, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches [2]. - After the unexpected exemption of copper products from tariffs on April 2, copper prices corrected downward, reaching a low of $8,105/ton amid fears of a global recession [2]. Group 3: Future Implications and Strategic Moves - The U.S. Department of Commerce is set to submit a report on copper tariffs by November 22, 2025, with a final decision expected by March 30, 2026, creating uncertainty in the copper market [3]. - As of May 12, COMEX copper inventory reached 163,400 tons, a six-year high, while LME inventory fell to 190,700 tons, indicating a significant shift in global copper stockpiles [3]. - The COMEX-LME price spread peaked at $1,643/ton on March 26, reflecting the market's volatility due to tariff uncertainties [3]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The article highlights the U.S. strategy to manipulate global copper trade through tariffs, aiming to force the return of copper-related manufacturing to the U.S. and curb China's copper industry growth [3][4]. - The relationship between U.S. manufacturing and copper prices is noted, with a strong correlation between China's manufacturing activity and copper prices, as China accounts for 56% of global refined copper consumption [6][7]. - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff strategies are seen as part of a broader effort by the U.S. to maintain its economic dominance amid rising competition from China [6][18].

关税"降级"下风光公用环保板块机遇及近况更新 20250513 摘要 • 光伏板块受抢装高峰推后和风力发电高峰期影响，难以反弹，美国市场虽 重要但企业更关注自身供需。部分企业如天瀚和金奥博计划出售美国产能， 反映风险控制策略。 • 光伏企业财务状况分化，龙头公司现金流充裕，二三线公司现金流显著减 少。龙头公司通过多种方式筹集资金，反映囤钱过冬策略，二线公司借债 能力下降。 • 上半年抢装结束后，丰水期可能导致价格下行，行业或采取减产、控价措 施。硅料价格预计不会回到去年畸形水平，龙头公司挺价意愿增强。 • 当前市场应关注具有阿尔法特性的环节和新技术，如 BC 电池技术和铜奖 光伏项目。硅料环节因成本曲线陡峭和产能限制，是潜在弹性品种。 • 短期内美国对中国逆变器加征关税可能不会显著影响销售，但长期来看， 若无法以公允价格销售，美国经销商可能替换中国品牌。 • 风电行业增长趋势明显，海上风电是重点。预计二季度将出现显著反转， 三季度交付量可能创历史新高。出口方面也表现出长期增长趋势。 • 关税调整缓解出口下行风险，但国内经济活动指标边际转弱。金融货币政 策及时降准释放流动性。新能源运营商具备成长逻辑，长期效果乐 ...

【冠通研究】 宏观利好注入，市场情绪转好 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 13 日 【期现行情】 期货方面：高开低走低震荡收涨。报收于 78090 元/吨，前二十名净多单 120750 手，-4809 手；空单量 112949 手，-2404 手。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水-25 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 45 元/吨。2025 年 5 月 12 日，LME 官方价 9546 美元/吨，现货升贴水 44 美元/吨。 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 华东阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 华南阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8 ...

Core Insights - qCella, a Swiss engineering technology company founded in 2023, focuses on developing heating pads made from copper-cellulose fiber composite materials, which allow for uniform heating and flexible cutting, suitable for direct skin contact without additional insulation layers [2][7] - The global electric heater market is projected to reach $9.02 billion in 2024, indicating a significant market opportunity for innovative heating solutions [4] - Traditional heating products using heating wires face limitations such as heat loss due to insulation requirements and fixed shapes, which restrict their application in wearable products and increase energy consumption in electric vehicles [5][6] Company Overview - qCella was established as a spin-off from ETH Zurich, co-founded by Murielle Schreck (CEO), Fabian Schmid (CTO), and Weyde Lin (COO), all of whom have extensive academic and research backgrounds in materials science and engineering [2][7] - The company has developed a lightweight heating pad that can be cut into any shape, enhancing integration into various end products like automotive seats, aircraft interiors, clothing, and pain relief devices [7][8] Market Potential - qCella targets the automotive, aerospace, and wearable markets, with a potential market size of CHF 6.5 billion [8] - In the automotive sector, qCella's heating pads can reduce energy consumption and improve the range and comfort of electric vehicles [8] - The company is collaborating with Swiss firm Caynova to provide the world's first aircraft seat heating and cooling system [8] Funding and Recognition - In January 2025, qCella completed a seed funding round of CHF 1.3 million, with investors including Venture Kick, Kickfund, and Swisspreneur Syndicate, aimed at further developing their composite materials and testing samples with clients [8] - qCella was recognized in the 2024 TOP100 Swiss Startups list, highlighting its innovative potential and market prospects in the Swiss technology landscape [10]

冠通期货 铜周度策略展望 冠通期货研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 2025年5月12日 1 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜上周区间窄幅震荡。美联储维持利率不变，联邦基金利率目标区间保持在4.25%至4.50%，鹰派立场下铜价上行空间受阻。中国一揽政 | | | | | 策出台包括降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点。下调再贷款利率0.25个百分点。下调个人 | | | | | 住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，一定程度刺激市场。中美经贸在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈，提出24%的关税在初始的90天内暂 | | | | | 停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税，基本面情况来看，截止4月18日，现货粗炼费（TC）-43.6美元/干吨， | | | | | 现货精炼费（RC）-4.37美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费继续扩大负值，硫酸利润弥补少量亏损，但冶炼厂成本压力明显，铜矿端供应紧缺加剧。5 | | | | | 月国内有 ...