Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate has surpassed 7.08 against the US dollar as of November 26, marking a new high since October 14 of the previous year, with an appreciation of nearly 5% from the low of 7.43 during the "reciprocal tariffs" period in April [1][3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The recent strengthening of the RMB is driven by several factors, including a weak US dollar, resilient domestic fundamentals, enhanced competitiveness of major economies, and the central bank's commitment to stabilizing the exchange rate [3] - The outlook for RMB appreciation remains solid through 2026, supported by a "loose US, stable China" monetary policy environment [3] Historical Context and Market Correlation - Since the 2015 "exchange rate reform," there has been a significant positive correlation between RMB exchange rates and A-share market performance, influenced by economic fundamentals, monetary policy, market risk appetite, and liquidity [3] - During the RMB appreciation cycles of 2017-2018 Q1 and 2020 Q2-2021, the A-share market experienced bullish trends, with foreign capital playing a crucial role in driving market performance [3][6][9] Sector Allocation Insights - In Q3 2025, the main sectors attracting northbound capital include power equipment, electronics, pharmaceuticals, banking, food and beverage, and machinery, with notable increases in allocation for electronics, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and communications [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with active market sentiment and continuous capital inflow driving significant growth in public Hong Kong stock funds, which reached a total scale of 10,330.08 billion yuan by the end of Q3, a substantial increase of approximately 68% from Q2 [1] - The total number of fund shares for public Hong Kong stock funds reached 8,810.67 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 42%. The stock position of these funds increased to 92.71%, up 0.75 percentage points from the end of Q2, with nearly 80% maintaining stock positions above 90% [1] - The technology sector remains the top choice for public Hong Kong stock funds, although its proportion slightly decreased to 37%. The consumer sector holds the second position with a 25.16% holding ratio. The pharmaceutical sector saw the largest increase in holdings, growing by 3.09% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2 - As of November 27, 364 out of 381 public funds with "Hong Kong" in their names achieved net value growth this year, with 58 funds exceeding a 50% growth rate. Notably, two funds, Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical Mixed A and Huitianfu Hong Kong Advantage Selection Mixed (QDII) A, both surpassed a 100% net value growth rate [2] - Institutions generally hold an optimistic outlook for the market, with expectations of continued inflow of southbound funds driven by public funds and insurance capital, which may further boost the Hong Kong stock market [2] - The market is expected to benefit from the liquidity spillover from domestic and foreign markets and the ongoing narrative around AI, as more quality A-share companies list in Hong Kong [2] Group 3 - Predictions indicate that the Hong Kong stock market may experience a second round of valuation recovery and further earnings revival in 2026, supported by a rebound in fundamentals and attractive valuation discounts. Key focus areas include technology, healthcare, resources benefiting from inflation expectations, essential consumer sectors, and industries benefiting from RMB appreciation [3] - The research team suggests a left-side layout of "true value" stocks, selecting targets based on low valuation, large market capitalization, strong profitability, and cyclical recovery [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core View of the Report - Recently, the RMB has experienced a continuous appreciation trend, with the USD/Offshore RMB exchange rate breaking through the 7.08 and 7.07 levels, reaching a low near 7.06. There are three main reasons behind this: the weak Q3 employment data in the US and the deteriorating private - sector job growth in the latest ADP data have increased concerns about a non - linear rise in unemployment rates in October and November, leading to a higher expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, a decline in US Treasury yields, and a narrowing of the China - US interest rate spread, which promotes RMB appreciation; the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has been continuously adjusted in a stronger direction, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, a one - year high, and the positive signal from the China - US high - level call on November 24 has alleviated short - term concerns about tariff escalation; the good performance of the equity market and the continuous net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year have boosted RMB appreciation, and the expected increase in seasonal corporate settlement demand at the end of the year may further consolidate the RMB's appreciation momentum [2] 3) Summary by Related Content - **RMB Appreciation Trend**: The USD/Offshore RMB exchange rate has broken through 7.08 and 7.07, reaching around 7.06 [2] - **Reasons for RMB Appreciation**: - **US Economic Data and Fed Expectations**: Weak US Q3 employment data and deteriorating ADP data on private - sector jobs have increased concerns about unemployment rate hikes in October and November, leading to a higher expectation of a December Fed rate cut, a decline in US Treasury yields, and a narrowing of the China - US interest rate spread [2] - **Central Parity Rate and Diplomatic Signals**: The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar has been adjusted strongly, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, a one - year high. The November 24 China - US high - level call sent positive signals, alleviating short - term tariff concerns [2] - **Equity Market and Capital Flows**: The good performance of the equity market and the continuous net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year have promoted RMB appreciation, and the expected increase in year - end corporate settlement demand may further strengthen the appreciation momentum [2]

中美之间的一通电话，给全球资本市场带来了显著波动，美元兑离岸人民币汇率瞬间突破了近一年来的最高点。如果这种趋势持续下去，人民币汇率是否可 能在春节前回到6的区间呢？在中美通话后，特朗普还专门与日本首相高市早苗进行了电话沟通。那么，这通电话具体谈了什么呢？ 根据外交部的最新消息，这次中美领导人的通话是由美国方面发起的。双方在通话中交换了意见，讨论了中日矛盾以及俄乌战争等问题。 特朗普主动联系中国，意在了解中国的底线和要求，担心在中日矛盾中，中国可能采取一些美国难以承受的行动，导致战略误判，进而影响美国在亚太地区 的重要地位。目前，特朗普政府仍在处理俄乌战争的残局，以色列战争也尚未完全平息，因此缺乏精力专注于日本。有分析认为，这次中美通话，可能也与 中国在台湾统一方面的布局有关。 自2016年南海危机以来，中国已经向世界证明其海军实力不惧美国。经过近十年的发展，中国军力实现了质的飞跃。在此次针对日本的挑衅言论中，中国的 回应非常强烈，特别是强调中国作为战胜国有责任维护二战后的国际秩序。此外，中国与美国的通话也可以视作一种最后通牒，告知美国如果无法管控日 本，中国将亲自采取行动。这一事件对资本市场产生了巨大影响，全 ...

近日，人民币对美元汇率走强。11月26日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率延续前一日的升值势头，盘中双双升破 7.08，创2024年10月14日以来新高。 人民币为何连升？ 这一轮人民币走强的背后，是国内经济基本面（PPI、出口）、季节性结汇高峰、外资增配人民币资产、政策调控 等多重因素共同作用的结果。机构普遍预计偏强运行态势短期内仍将延续。 1、政策调控补涨： 2025年以来，国内经济走势偏强，美元大幅下跌，而人民币对美元汇价尽管有所升值，但未能与之充分匹配。美 元指数的下跌幅度一度达到-10%，而人民币对美元升值则不到3%。 当前汇市调控正在向推动CFETS等人民币对一篮子货币汇率指数适度上行方向发力，有助于为我国外贸企业提供 稳定的外部环境。 2、国内资本市场吸引力上升： 7月以来，国内权益资产加速走强，随后到9月~10月一度陷入回调，但临近11月底企稳回升。 本轮港股、A股行情发动时间相对晚，估值相比其他资本市场，性价比仍然较高，随着美股高位调整加剧，海外 资金配置人民币资产的汇兑收益预期提升。 从日历效应来看，历年岁末年初也是外资布局人民币资产跨年行情的窗口，外资或有望净流入贡献增量资金。 截至2025日 ...

同日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币兑美元中间价报7.0796，较上个交易日调高30个 基点。今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅超过1000个基点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析，人民币持续升值主要原因有二：一是近期人民币对美元中间价持续向偏强方向调整；二是 今年我国出口超预期，7月以来国内资本市场走强，在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也提振了市场对人民币的信心。 王青认为，美联储未来还可能继续降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击正逐步显现，美元指数上行空间有限；不 过，年初以来美元跌幅巨大，对包括美联储降息等在内的利空因素有所消化，后期会有较强的抗跌韧性。 人民币持续走强！ 继前一日在岸、离岸双双升破7.09之后，11月26日，在岸、离岸价盘中又双双击穿7.08。截至发稿，美元兑离岸人民币报 7.07428。 中信证券首席经济学家明明预计，2026年，在出口不发生超预期变动的情况下，人民币汇率或整体呈现温和升值的态势。 国内方面，四季度外部波动对我国出口的影响逐步显现，10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，当月进一步安排5000亿 元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债 ...

人民币走势强劲。 11月26日，人民币继续走强，在岸、离岸价盘中双双击穿7.08。截至发稿，美元兑离岸人民币达到 7.07499。 同日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币兑美元中间价报7.0796， 较上个交易日调高30个基点。 今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅超过1000个基点。 中信期货分析称，特朗普威胁加征关税带来人民币短期贬值压力，央行通过中间价持续释放维稳信号。 同时，我国三季度出口维持韧性，权益市场表现良好，推动人民币升值。四季度企业结汇率提高，或进 一步加强人民币升值动力。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，美联储未来可能继续降息，美元指数上行空间有限。不过，年初以 来美元跌幅巨大，市场对包括美联储降息等在内的利空因素有所消化，后期美元指数或展现出一定抗跌 韧性。 王青表示，经济基本面将为人民币汇率提供重要的内在支撑，预计短期内人民币处于偏强运行状态。接 下来要重点关注美元走势、人民币中间价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和节奏。 展望2026年，在出口不发生超预期变动的情况下，中信证券首席经济学家明明预计人民币汇率或整体呈 现温和升值的态势。一方面，美联储继续降息、 ...

Industry Overview - Major companies such as Shanying, Jiu Long, APP, and Asia Pacific Forest have announced price increases for their products, effective from late November to early December. The price increase for packaging paper is moderate, around 50 yuan/ton, while cultural paper sees a significant rise of 200 yuan/ton [1] - The concentration trend in the paper industry is clear, with several large paper companies, including Shanying and Jiu Long, announcing maintenance plans that will temporarily reduce supply and accelerate the elimination of inefficient capacity. Leading companies are gaining dominance in the price increase wave due to their full industry chain layout and channel control [1] Market Dynamics - The market anticipates continued appreciation of the RMB over the next two months, which benefits the paper sector. The fundamental improvement signals are clear, highlighting the sector's allocation value. The current logic for profit recovery in the paper industry is evident, with price increases in packaging paper resonating with the reduction of pulp inventory. On the demand side, restocking demand continues; on the supply side, paper companies' maintenance and changes in import policies are constraining supply; on the cost side, stable to rising pulp prices support product pricing. The sector's valuation is at historical lows, further emphasizing allocation value due to structural optimization in the industry [2] Company Insights - Xianhe Co., Ltd. is a leading player in specialty paper, strategically positioned in the consumer sector and successfully advancing towards pulp-paper integration. The company has production bases and joint ventures in various regions, with an annual production capacity exceeding 2 million tons across over 60 varieties in six major series [3] - Sun Paper Industry is expected to release profit increments in the fourth quarter as new production capacity comes online [4]

Core Insights - The recent appreciation of the RMB, recovering above the 7.09 mark, is attributed to the weakening of the USD due to strong expectations of a Fed rate cut, alongside a significant increase in A-share buybacks, which have exceeded 130 billion yuan this year, indicating a recovery in market confidence [3][4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has surged to 84.9%, driven by signs of a weakening labor market and expectations surrounding the new Fed chair selection, suggesting that a rate cut is highly likely [3][4] - The competition in the AI sector is intensifying, with companies like Nvidia and Google battling for market share, while Alibaba's Qianwen has secured a national AI project in Singapore, indicating a shift towards a more competitive landscape in AI technology [4] Currency and Market Dynamics - The appreciation of the RMB is supported by external factors such as the anticipated Fed rate cuts and a reduction in geopolitical uncertainties following positive communications between US and Chinese leaders [3][4] - A-share buybacks have reached a historical high, with over 100 companies seeing their stock prices double, reflecting a belief among companies that their stocks are undervalued [4] Investment Opportunities - Companies with high overseas business exposure and those holding USD assets are expected to benefit from the RMB appreciation [5] - High-dividend blue-chip stocks and quality growth stocks are likely to see valuation recovery in the context of anticipated rate cuts, with a focus on firms with solid cash flow and stable R&D investments [5] - The technology sector, particularly in AI and autonomous control, presents significant long-term potential, with emphasis on companies that possess core technologies and relevant application scenarios [5] Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to monitor sectors that benefit from currency appreciation and rate cuts, while also considering companies in the technology space that are involved in AI and robotics [5] - Companies with low valuations and buyback support, particularly in the food and beverage, chemical, and real estate sectors, should be placed on watchlists for potential investment as their fundamentals improve [5]

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is not a short-term trend but a reflection of China's growing economic strength and the shift in the global currency landscape [1][21]. Group 1: RMB Strength - The recent rise of the RMB against the USD is attributed to years of underlying strength, particularly in cross-border payments, which have reduced reliance on Western systems [4][10]. - The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) now has 187 direct participants and 1,559 indirect participants, with 63.7% being foreign entities, covering 122 countries and regions [6]. - The "Multilateral Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge" project utilizes blockchain for real-time cross-border payment settlements, bypassing SWIFT, with 164 transactions completed in 2022, totaling over 150 million yuan [8]. Group 2: USD Weakness - The USD is facing challenges due to high fiscal pressures and rising interest payments, leading to a situation where the Federal Reserve is forced into quantitative easing rather than tightening [15][19]. - The reliance on debt financing for AI industry growth poses risks, as tightening monetary policy could lead to increased financing costs and potential valuation collapses [17]. - The historical over-reliance on printing money without supporting the real economy has led to a decline in the USD's credibility and strength [19]. Group 3: Future Trends - The RMB's appreciation is expected to continue over the next 6 to 12 months, signaling important implications for personal finance and asset allocation [21][26]. - The shift from a USD-dominated currency system to a more diversified one is underway, with the RMB's rise aligning with this trend [24][26]. - Individuals are encouraged to pay attention to RMB-denominated assets, as their attractiveness is likely to increase with the currency's appreciation [26].