近期，知名经济学家洪灝在与瑞士宝盛的本年度收官对话中，展望了2026年的美股、A股市场，并重点剖析了AI、大宗商品及人民币等核心议题。 投资作业本课代表整理了要点如下: 1、现在说（美国AI）泡沫要破，可能还为时过早。但必须承认估值已经很贵了。那么历史上达到如此估值的高度次数屈指可数。 以及一般来说，这个估值水平， 美股未来7到10年的平均回报率往往只有个位数。 2、 从下半年开始，我们就建议客户把美股获利的部分转向非美市场。主要原因是 美股相对于其他市场的表现已经达到历史高位，再期待它持续跑赢，可 能不太现实。 3、我 相信如果投AI的话，我们会继续投现在已经崭露头角的公司，以及一些大型的从以前的科技、互联网公司转型成AI公司的领头羊。 以下是投资作业本课代表（微信ID：touzizuoyeben）整理的精华内容，分享给大家： 2026年只要经济不太差，A股值得期待 主持人：年初至今，上证和沪深300指数以及港股恒生指数涨了很多，在全球市场算是领先的。不过从十月开始，股指上升势头有所减弱，板块之间开始 轮动，比如科技类的成长股承压明显，反而价值股和周期股更受资金青睐。 4、如果AI故事继续，经济周期位置不变 ...

恒生指数低开0.54%，恒生科技指数跌1.11%。盘面上，券商板块强势，中金公司今日复盘开盘涨超7%; 科网股跌幅居前，阿里巴巴跌近2%。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：李佛。 华泰证券认为，目前市场下行空间可控但上行胜率尚未打开。港股情绪指标依然处于悲观区间，对应磨 底阶段，情绪指数走势与2024年11月类似。彼时情绪指标进入恐慌区间后，市场在2025年初迎来明显反 弹，春节前后DeepSeek催化下斜率放大。未来行情催化因素可能来自以下三点预期差：人民币升值： 升值共识一旦形成，资本流动或发生重要改变，可以类比今年欧洲市场;企业出海：市场依然担忧汇率 升值和出口高基数的影响，明年上半年中美关系依然处于温和期，出口韧性存在预期差。 招商证券认为，近期港股市场在海外降息后仍未企稳，主要来自于两个内部流动性问题：公募基金基准 新规落地，可能导致卖出部分港股;港股阶段性资金需求较大。上述叙事虽然存在，且在下跌过程中持 续强化，但总体来看影响较为有限。 关于港股后市 招商证券认为，港股近期走弱缘于：南向资金由于公募基准新规而回流A股和抱团的挤出效应，IPO融 资潮的担忧，解禁高峰的到来，盈利下修与海外流动 ...

Core Viewpoints - The characteristics of trading driven by overseas macro events have become evident this year, with increased radiation and linkage to the domestic market. The focus has shifted from being primarily economy-driven to multiple channels including economy, geopolitics, AI industry trends, and global liquidity [1][5][36] - Four main paths of overseas influence on the domestic market need close attention in the coming year: external demand affecting profit expectations, AI chains contributing to market hotspots, reduced geopolitical risks, and positive impacts of overseas liquidity and RMB appreciation on domestic assets [1][20][59] Group 1: Overseas Influence on Domestic Market - Despite the impact of tariffs, China's export growth has remained robust, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.4% in export value for the first 11 months, and a trade surplus increase of 21%. Net exports contributed 29% to GDP, surpassing the 17.5% contribution from investment [5][43] - The global economic outlook suggests a dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies, providing strong support for domestic growth through external demand. The structural shift in exports towards Africa and ASEAN has effectively countered declines in exports to the US [5][43][54] - Domestic enterprises are actively expanding into overseas markets, potentially creating a second growth curve, with leading companies likely to break through first. China's foreign direct investment is expected to reach nearly $200 billion in 2024, contrasting with a decline in global FDI [7][45] Group 2: Geopolitical Changes - Geopolitical changes are expected to influence market risk preferences in the short term and the restructuring of global order in the long term. China's response to trade tensions has demonstrated strategic resolve, and the market is becoming less sensitive to US tariff policies [10][49] - The trend towards regional integration and de-dollarization is accelerating, with a focus on self-sufficient supply chains. This context reduces tail risks and enhances the strategic value of scarce resources and capital goods [10][49] Group 3: AI Industry Trends - The AI wave has generated hotspots in the domestic market, primarily impacting hardware profitability and leading to valuation increases in applications. The market has experienced two rounds of AI-related trends this year, with a focus on hardware profitability and the need for actual earnings realization [12][51] - As overseas AI investments deepen, their influence is beginning to spill over into other asset classes, with a shift from "chip shortages" to "electricity shortages" becoming evident. This shift is expected to increase demand for power equipment and copper [13][52] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Currency Trends - The Federal Reserve's easing cycle, narrowing of the US-China interest rate differential, and gradual appreciation of the RMB are favorable for domestic asset performance. The trade surplus remains high, and the willingness of enterprises to convert currency has increased significantly [15][54] - The RMB is expected to continue appreciating, supported by a substantial potential for currency conversion funds and the anticipated further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming year [15][54] Group 5: Market Conditions and Recommendations - The domestic bond market is facing redemption pressures, with skepticism about the long-term interest rate support. The market is expected to experience volatility, with a focus on short- to medium-term credit bonds as relatively safe choices [39][60] - In the stock market, there is a consensus expectation for a spring rally, but the lack of earnings support may limit upward potential. Key sectors to watch include technology growth, commercial aerospace, and robotics, alongside cyclical and resource sectors [39][62]

21世纪经济报道 记者郭聪聪，实习生董凌含 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布实施2025年内的第三次降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.50%–3.75%。至此，美联储在本年度已累计降 息75个基点，业内人士表示，符合市场普遍预期。 值得关注的是，在此政策窗口期，国内一批年化收益率仍保持在"3%"以上的美元理财产品，正吸引不少投资者的目光。然而，另一关键因素也在悄然影响 美元理财的投资回报：人民币对美元汇率持续走强，汇率多日破"7"关口，年内累计升值已超3.4%。 面对看似可观的高息机会，投资者面临着现实的抉择：是抓住利率"高位"窗口配置美元资产，还是谨慎看待未来汇率与收益的双重波动？ 三度降息，政策抉择的十字路口 2025年，美联储延续了2024 年以来的宽松货币政策基调，三次降息逐步落地。 9月18日，美联储首次启动降息，将联邦基金利率区间下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%；10月30日进行第二次降息，利率区间进一步调降至 3.75%-4.00%；12月 11日的第三次降息后，利率最终落在了3.50%-3.75%区间，业内人士表示，全年宽松力度与市场此前预判一致。 | | 2025年美 ...

近期，人民币对美元汇率大涨！ 12月16日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率突破了7.05，其中离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.04008，在岸人民币 对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.0470，创下去年9月以来的新高。 人民币的升值，不仅在国内经济层面引发了广泛关注，也对跨境电商行业产生了深远的影响。在汇率上行的背景下， 跨境卖家如何借势降本增利，成为当前的重要思考方向。 根据中国人民银行的最新公告，人民币汇率中间价今年以来上涨超过1000个基点。人民币升值的背后有多个因素： 1、美元指数下行，人民币升值 12月11日美联储降息前后，美元指数跌破了100的关键点位，推动了包括人民币在内的 非美货币普遍升值。其中人民币汇率上涨也成为全球市场关注的焦点。 2、季节性结汇需求增加 年底企业结汇需求普遍增加，这一季节性需求加速了人民币的升值。尤其是在人民币持续升 值的背景下，企业的结汇需求可能在快速的释放。 3、国际资金流入中国 根据中国经济数据近期发布的数据，海外资金对中国市场的配置兴趣显著回升。国际货币基金 组织（IMF）、世界银行等顶尖金融机构相继上调了中国经济增长预期，增强了外资流入中国的动力，这一因素也可 能推动了 ...

本周一，人民币对美元汇率盘中大涨，离岸、在岸人民币对美元汇率双双升破7.05元的关口，创下14个月以来的新高。 其中，在岸人民币对美元汇率最高升至7.0470元，离岸人民币最高升至7.0453元。 可能一些小伙伴要问了：离岸和在岸人民币有什么区别？这次的人民币汇率大涨有何不同？对我们又有什么影响？ 简单来说，在岸人民币和离岸人民币，核心区别在于交易和管理的"地理位置"不同。 01在岸人民币 在岸人民币就是在中国内地交易的、受到央行严格监管的人民币。它的汇率受到政策引导，所以波动相对小。 02离岸人民币 所谓离岸人民币，就是交易地点在中国内地以外（比如中国香港、新加坡、伦敦等）的人民币，目前中国香港是最活跃的离岸人民币市场。 | 7.04270 ↓ | 最 高 | 7.05559 今 开 | 7.05534 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -0.01072 -0.15% | 最 低 | 7.04175 昨 收 1 | 7.05341 | | 52周最高 | 7.42911 买 价 | 7.04193 最低买价 | 7.04098 | 我们可以把离岸人民币汇率理解成在境外买卖人民币的" ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a narrow fluctuation in the morning and a strong rally in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.92% to 25,468.78 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.03% to 5,457.95 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.98% to 8,843.57 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba up 1.25%, Tencent Holdings up 1.42%, JD Group up 1.26%, and Meituan up 1.81% [1] - The aviation sector showed strong performance, with China Southern Airlines rising over 5%, while financial stocks also saw gains, with China Life Insurance increasing over 4% [1] - The metals sector led the gains, with Tianqi Lithium up nearly 6%, Ganfeng Lithium up over 5%, and Luoyang Molybdenum up over 2% [1] - Semiconductor stocks also rose, with Shanghai Fudan up 4%, Huahong Semiconductor up nearly 3%, and SMIC up over 2% [1] Corporate News - China Energy Construction (03996.HK) announced the official operation of the first phase of the Zhongnengjian Songyuan Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park project [2] - China Pacific Insurance (02601.HK) reported that its cumulative original insurance premium income for the first 11 months reached RMB 250.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while its property insurance premium income was RMB 187.68 billion, up 0.3% [2] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692.HK) entered into a licensing agreement with Glenmark for Amivantamab, which includes an upfront payment and potential milestone payments exceeding USD 1 billion [2] Financing Activities - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) secured a term loan financing of HKD 500 million [3] - China Railway Construction (01186.HK) plans to issue company bonds with a total amount not exceeding RMB 4 billion [4] - Genscript Biotech (01672.HK) increased its share buyback fund from a maximum of HKD 300 million to HKD 500 million [5] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.067 million shares for approximately HKD 636 million at prices ranging from HKD 592.5 to HKD 602.5 [6] - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) repurchased 7.2 million shares for HKD 294 million at prices between HKD 40.36 and HKD 41.00 [7] - Kuaishou Technology (01024.HK) repurchased 1.8231 million shares for HKD 116 million at prices from HKD 63.05 to HKD 64.4 [8] - Geely Automobile (00175.HK) repurchased 299,900 shares for approximately HKD 50.54 million at prices between HKD 16.72 and HKD 17.2 [9] Institutional Insights - According to China Merchants Securities, the recent weakness in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to southbound capital returning to A-shares due to new public fund benchmark regulations, concerns over IPO financing, and the upcoming peak of stock unlocks [10] - Huatai Securities noted that while the market's downside is manageable, the upside potential has not yet opened up, with market sentiment indicators remaining in a pessimistic range [10] - China Merchants Securities also highlighted that the Hong Kong market has not stabilized after overseas interest rate cuts, primarily due to internal liquidity issues [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for November increased by 64,000, exceeding market expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021 [4] - The average hourly wage growth in November was 3.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2021 [4] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the upcoming employment reports will be crucial in determining whether the Federal Reserve will resume easing policies, with a focus on the unemployment rate rather than the overall non-farm employment growth [5] Group 2 - The onshore RMB to USD exchange rate approached the 7.04 mark, while the offshore RMB reached a 14-month high near 7.03 [2] - The RMB has been appreciating due to a weaker dollar environment and strong performance in the domestic equity market attracting foreign capital [5] - Analysts expect the RMB exchange rate to continue to appreciate moderately, supported by coordinated domestic policies and improving economic momentum [6]

Group 1 - The RMB to USD exchange rate has significantly increased, with both onshore and offshore rates approaching the 7.04 mark, reaching a 14-month high, driven by a weak dollar environment and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown remarkable performance, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index rising by 75.82% this year, led by industrial metals like copper, gold, and lead-zinc, indicating strong mid-to-long-term investment value [1] - The commercial aerospace sector has gained attention in the capital market, with the Wind Commercial Aerospace Index rising over 20% since November 24, reflecting the importance of policy and market dynamics in this industry [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has granted the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits, marking a significant step towards commercial application of autonomous driving technology in China [3] - The acquisition of ST Yishite by Jingjiang Industry for 2.437 billion yuan highlights the trend of state-owned enterprises in Hubei leveraging capital markets for industrial upgrades, focusing on emerging sectors like new energy and semiconductors [4] - Over 100 listed companies in A-shares are involved in the energy storage business, with 41 companies reporting over 100 million yuan in overseas revenue in the first half of 2024, indicating strong growth potential in this sector [5] Group 3 - The national energy work conference revealed that total installed power generation capacity is expected to exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts this year, with a year-on-year growth of 14%, and the A-share power grid equipment index has risen by 31.28% this year [6] - The recent IPOs of domestic GPU manufacturers like Moer Thread and Muxi reflect the rapid development of the AI chip sector, emphasizing the need for public market support to address high costs associated with AI chip production [7] - The introduction of the first industry standard for gold exchange services in China aims to create a more transparent and fair trading environment, enhancing compliance and promoting healthy industry development [8]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：北京商报 人民币近期升值势头强劲。12月16日，在岸人民币对美元汇率最高来到7.0417，创下2024年10月来新 高；离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.04，最高报7.0374，同样触及阶段性高点。这已是人民币汇率连续两 日刷新纪录。 美元弱、结汇旺、预期稳，构成本轮人民币升值的主要动力。展望未来，国际收支结构的根本性改善和 宏观经济长期向好是人民币稳定的核心支柱。分析人士同时强调，人民币升值过程将是渐进的、温和 的、有管理的。从政策基调来看，人民银行将"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"，避免形 成强烈的单边预期。 将围绕7.0关口双向波动 12月16日，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0602元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0656 元，调升54个基点。截至当日16时，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率分别报7.0421、7.0379，日内分别涨 0.09%、0.08%。 12月以来，人民币连续升破7.07、7.05多个关口，月初至今涨幅接近0.5%。中国外汇交易中心12月12日 更新的数据显示，CFETS人民币汇率 ...