证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 18 日 存单的波动依然不大。1-19 日累计发行规模达到 2.5 万亿元之上，基本追平今年前五个月 2.8 万亿元的月 均值，与本月 4.2 万亿元的到期规模仅剩 1.7 万亿元左右的缺口。据 19 日的发行计划，1 个月国股行存单定价 在 1.60-1.62%，9 个月至 1 年期国股行品种定价在 1.63-1.65%，未体现出提价压力，季末银行负债端较为乐 观。 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：涨势依旧 现券交易主线继续围绕央行动态。早间陆家嘴会议开幕式上，央行宣布八项重磅金融政策，内容涉及面较 广，其中与债市关联性较高的政策是设立银行间市场交易报告库，高频汇集并系统分析银行间债券等金融子市场 交易数据。类似操作在 2024 年已有预演，因此，政策出炉并未对市场定价产生过多影响。不过，市场满怀期待 的"央行重启买债"及"国债缴准"并未在会议上被提及，这也使得债市行情略有减速，各期限国债活跃品种多 小幅上行，利差保护较足的老券、政金债、地方债品种收益率反而延续了下行趋势。 | | | 复盘与思考: 6 月 18 日，股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The renovation of the Innovation Market has transformed it into a vibrant community hub, featuring diverse dining and retail options, attracting a younger demographic and enhancing the local cultural tourism scene [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Transformation - The Innovation Market has officially reopened after a comprehensive renovation, now featuring four main sections: JD's first 7Fresh Food Mall, the Innovation Vegetable Market, the Innovation Food Collection, and the Innovation Community Canteen [1]. - The market has upgraded existing vendor spaces while retaining food retail, dining, and fresh produce offerings, creating a cleaner and more comfortable shopping environment [3]. Group 2: Community Engagement - The Innovation Community Canteen offers a variety of affordable dining options, including stir-fried dishes and noodles, designed to serve as a "community dining table" for local residents [5]. - Additional facilities such as a cultural tourism check-in area, senior dining knowledge area, leisure charging area, and handwashing stations have been established to meet diverse consumer needs [5]. Group 3: Popularity and Social Media Impact - The market's renovation has significantly increased foot traffic, with many influencers and social media users promoting the new space, making it a trendy destination in Harbin [7]. - The new consumer experience combines traditional food offerings with modern digital dining, reflecting the dynamic evolution of the local commercial landscape [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a rebound since April 7, with the Wind偏股混合型基金指数 rising over 11% as of June 17, indicating a recovery in active equity products [1][2] - Nearly 70% of active equity funds have turned positive in returns, with 3,079 out of 4,462 funds reporting gains, a significant increase from 10.8% on April 7 [2][3] - The top-performing funds are heavily invested in the pharmaceutical sector, with six out of the top ten funds focusing on this area, driven by Hong Kong innovative drug stocks [3][5] Group 2 - The top fund, 长城医药产业精选A, has achieved a 75.69% return year-to-date, followed closely by 中信建投北交所精选两年定开A and 永赢医药创新智选A with returns of 74% and 70.8% respectively [3] - The performance of the pharmaceutical sector is attributed to the strong showing of Hong Kong innovative drug stocks, which constitute a significant portion of the holdings in these funds [3][6] - Despite recent market corrections in popular sectors like innovative drugs and new consumption, industry experts believe that the long-term value remains intact, with ongoing support from national policies and market demand [5][6] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 59.18%, while other sectors like humanoid robots and new consumption have also performed well, with gains exceeding 20% [5] - Recent corrections in these sectors are viewed as technical adjustments rather than a sign of a downturn, with analysts suggesting continued investment interest in innovative drugs due to their long-term growth potential [6][7] - The new consumption sector is experiencing a temporary pullback, but the underlying market conditions remain strong, as evidenced by positive consumption data during the recent 618 shopping festival [6][7]

行 业 研 究 华福证券 社会服务 2025 年 06 月 18 日 社会服务 关注 IP 新消费，618 美妆中高端品牌走强 投资要点： 文旅：关注暑期旺季催化，同时关注文旅结合 IP 的新消费逻辑延伸， 以及"苏超"对于江苏区域性的主题带动。 行 业 定 期 报 告 近期主题方面，建议关注 IP+景区的概念延伸，关注峨眉山 A、长 白山、祥源文旅、海昌海洋公园等。第二个主题"苏超"热度持续提 升，建议关注江苏片区出行、体育相关公司主题机遇，建议关注天目 湖、金陵体育等。 潮玩：消费政策延续支持，消费心理边际宽松，潮玩龙头公司表现强 劲。 消费政策延续支持，消费心理边际宽松，潮玩龙头公司表现强劲： 泡泡玛特周涨幅达+11.4%，布鲁可涨+9.4%。港股泡泡玛特因 LABUBU IP 全球断货和海外销售超预期，股价韧性突出；布鲁可因新品反馈热 烈及入通预期强化，市场关注度提升。行业整体受益于暑期档新品周 期催化，板块弹性显著。 黄金珠宝：建议关注终端店效高增及门店拓展空间大的品牌。 金价持续上涨，一口价产品增长表现较好，面向高端客群及年轻 客群的品牌终端店效有望持续高增且门店拓展空间大，建议关注潮宏 基、莱绅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a decline, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors, despite a surge in demand for durable consumer goods driven by the 618 shopping festival and government subsidies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices in the Hong Kong stock market opened lower and continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index seeing an expanded drop [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) fell over 1% in the afternoon, while the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) dropped more than 1.5% [1] Group 2: Consumer Demand - The overlap of the 618 shopping festival and the government’s trade-in subsidy policy has led to a significant increase in demand for durable consumer goods, including home appliances and automobiles [1] - The retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods in May reached 6.4%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1%, marking a new high for 2024 [1] - The strong performance in May was attributed to the early start of e-commerce promotional activities and changes in holiday distribution, with two additional holiday days compared to the previous year, leading to a concentrated release of consumer demand [1] Group 3: Sector Insights - The consumer sector in Hong Kong is showing strong investment value, particularly in the context of the recent retail sales data [1] - The retail sales growth for household appliances and communication equipment increased by 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating a clear structural improvement [1] Group 4: Investment Focus - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) encompasses e-commerce and new consumption sectors, which are relatively scarce compared to A-shares [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) includes both soft and hard technology, featuring technology leaders that are also relatively rare in A-shares [1]

Group 1: White Liquor Industry Characteristics - The current pressure on prices is greater than the pressure on volume in the white liquor industry [1] - Most companies' short-term performance increasingly relies on market share improvement in core markets and is driven by mid-tier and lower-tier products [2] - Leading liquor companies are innovating their business models to cope with cyclical pressures by transforming scenarios, customer groups, and expanding white liquor cultural experiences to find new growth points [3] Group 2: Market Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The valuation of the white liquor sector has dropped to historical lows, enhancing the margin of safety, while companies are increasing shareholder returns through higher dividend rates and share buybacks [4] - Investment institutions recommend focusing on three types of quality targets: prominent brands with low valuations and stable demand, regionally strong operators with refined operations and potential for profit margin improvement, and companies with significant growth potential [4] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In contrast to the performance of white liquor stocks, the new consumption sector has become a market focus this year, with segments like beauty, IP economy, and leisure snacks experiencing significant growth [5] - The Chinese consumer market is showing structural differentiation driven by three key factors: continuous policy benefits supporting new consumption sectors, generational shifts with "Generation Z" becoming the main market force, and varying growth stages among companies [5]

6月17日，股价持续新高的泡泡玛特迎来大幅回调，截至收盘，泡泡玛特大跌超6%。 此外，老铺黄金大跌 6.67%，蜜雪集团大跌5.58%。 券商中国记者采访了申万宏源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛、开源证券研究所副所长、食品饮料首席分析师 张宇光、兴业证券新消费研究团队，共同把脉当下的新消费行情。 机构分析认为，当前市场对新消费的追捧，本质是资金在传统消费增长乏力、政策与消费代际变迁下的主动选 择。在国家"扩内需"战略提振消费信心的大背景下，新消费凭借高成长性，成为资金在不确定性中追逐稀缺高 增长资产的"避风港"。 对于当前的市场，机构认为，虽然新消费拥挤度已然升高，但是要看到新消费现象并非仅仅依靠资金短期博 弈，其热度背后有着长期逻辑支撑，行业具备景气度、政策、技术创新以及趋势性发展逻辑，看好行业未来成 长空间和中长期结构性投资机会。不过，也有分析认为，2025年内还是需要审慎看待更广泛的新消费扩散行 情。 新消费的"进攻性"增长更符合当前市场风格 券商中国记者： 近期，新消费概念在市场兴起，相关个股股价都持续上涨，如何看待当前市场对于新消费相 关个股的追捧？ 张宇光： 当前市场对新消费的追捧，本质是资金在传统 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trends in new consumption sectors, emphasizing opportunities in discount retail, bulk snacks, cross-border e-commerce, domestic beauty products, entertainment economy, and outdoor consumption [2][3][5] Consumption Trends - Post-1990s Japan experienced four major consumption trends: the rise of "value-for-money" consumption, increased popularity of low-cost home entertainment, a surge in vocational education demand due to unemployment, and the emergence of outdoor consumption [3][4] - In recent years, China's consumption structure has also evolved, presenting new investment opportunities, particularly in value-for-money consumption sectors such as discount retail and cross-border e-commerce [3][4] Performance of New Consumption Companies - Several new consumption companies, including Mixue Group, Blucoco, and Guming, have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showing impressive performance with stock price increases of 83.8%, 109.1%, and 162.4% respectively since their listings [5][7] - The report notes that the entertainment economy is gaining traction, with companies like Pop Mart reporting a revenue growth of 106.9% and a net profit growth of 188.8% in 2024 [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the new consumption industry trends are still ongoing, and there are opportunities for selective investment in key sectors such as discount retail, bulk snacks, cross-border e-commerce, domestic beauty products, entertainment economy, and outdoor consumption [2][5] - The performance of new consumption companies in Hong Kong is expected to catalyze similar movements in the A-share market, providing further investment opportunities [5]

美股回落,国际油价收涨超 4%，白银再破历 史高位 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 机械：核电人形机器人专题报告——工业应用场景巡礼。国内核电人形机器人 ● 产业发展提速:自2024年3月起,国家地方共建人形机器人创新中心联合上 海电气中央研究院,针对核电行业极端环境需求,开展了大量技术攻关与联合 实验,成功部署首款针对核电产业日常生产的人形机器人并进驻核电场景训练 场,相关项目也顺利完成阶段性验收。同时,国家和上海、杭州、北京、深圳 等地纷纷出台人形机器人相关政策,从技术研发、应用推广等多方面给予支持, 为人形机器人深度融入核电产业、推动核电智能化发展奠定了坚实基础。核电 领域作为危险、重复、繁重的工业应用场景,有望率先实现具身智能赋能与落 地。 滑费:5月社零提速彰显国补刺激、新消费活跃。5月社零增长提速，受益于 ...

Group 1 - The innovative drug sector has become a hot investment area, with approximately 30 new pharmaceutical-themed funds reported in the second quarter, matching the total for the entire year of 2024 [1] - The valuation of the pharmaceutical industry is considered high but not in a bubble phase, with potential for continued value increase as clinical data improves [1] - Dividend-themed funds are gaining traction as safe-haven investments, with several ETFs reaching record high shares, indicating their growing allocation value [1] Group 2 - Active equity funds are experiencing significant net value fluctuations, indicating that fund managers are beginning to build positions, with some funds ending their issuance early due to favorable entry points [2] - Multiple companies have announced share buyback plans, with a total buyback amount of 71.71 billion yuan this year, reflecting a commitment to shareholder value [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong's IPO financing has surged over 500% year-on-year, totaling 779.88 billion HKD, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [3] - The production of 3D printing equipment has increased by 40% year-on-year, outpacing other sectors, attributed to rising demand and improved technology [3] Group 4 - A new stringent battery safety regulation will shift the focus from energy density to safety performance, impacting major battery manufacturers like CATL and BYD [4] - The payment industry is witnessing a concentration of market share among larger players, while smaller firms face market exit and regulatory challenges [4] Group 5 - Chinese scientists have made advancements in developing an efficient "artificial leaf" for solar hydrogen production, enhancing the efficiency of water-splitting reactions [5] - JD.com plans to apply for stablecoin licenses in major currency countries to reduce cross-border payment costs significantly [5] Group 6 - Yunda Express has faced penalties related to a fraud case, with 58 franchise outlets fined or suspended for regulatory violations [6] - Baoneng Auto has denied rumors of dissolution, asserting that operations are normal and new vehicles are set to launch [7] Group 7 - Fuwai Group has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, aiming for an IPO after previous unsuccessful attempts, with significant losses reported [7] - Anshun Xixiu Industrial Investment has been listed as an executor due to a rental contract liability amounting to 212.6 million yuan [8] Group 8 - Tianwei Video has completed the acquisition of a 70% stake in Tianqing Digital for 84.28 million yuan, integrating it into its financial reports [9] - Weichuang Electric has set an inquiry transfer price of 38.79 yuan per share, with significant interest from institutional investors [10] Group 9 - Baoxin Technology's subsidiary's planned acquisition of a 40% stake in Jiangsu Yingsu has been halted due to the counterparty's unilateral termination [11]