Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market continues its upward trend, with significant gains in hard technology sectors, driven by strong performance from industry leaders and positive signals regarding US-China trade relations [2][5][7]. - On October 21, 2025, the total trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 264.66 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 1.171 billion [2][7]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.65% to close at 26,027.55, while the Hang Seng Technology Index saw a notable increase of 1.26%, closing at 6,007.94 [5][11]. Group 2 - In terms of industry performance, the Wind Hong Kong Electric Equipment Index showed strong gains, reflecting heightened demand expectations for energy storage and power battery sectors following robust third-quarter earnings from industry leaders [5][7]. - The semiconductor sector in Hong Kong experienced a strong rebound, driven by positive sentiment from the third-quarter earnings of major US chip companies, indicating renewed expectations for global AI industry demand [5][7]. - The report highlights three potential directions for future growth in the Hong Kong stock market: the continued inflow of southbound funds, the impact of US interest rate cuts on global liquidity, and the positive effects of "anti-involution" policies on supply-side improvements [5][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for gold and jewelry is expected to continue growing due to the long-term investment advantages of gold, rising gold prices driven by Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, and trade tensions [2] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 11.5% year-on-year, with a focus on the sales performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival [2] - The sports and outdoor industry is seen as a significant contributor to economic growth, with sustained consumer activity in sports apparel expected [4] - The beauty and personal care sector is recommended to focus on four main lines: essential self-care, domestic product substitution, technological advantages, and channel evolution [10] Summary by Relevant Sections Gold and Jewelry - Retail sales for gold and jewelry reached 276.8 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, up 11.5% year-on-year, with September sales at 29.3 billion yuan, a 9.7% increase [2] - The London spot gold price hit a historical high of $4,380.79 per ounce on October 17, 2025, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 65% [2] - Recommended companies include Lao Pu Gold, Lao Feng Xiang, and Chao Hong Ji [11] Trendy Toys - The trendy toy industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by Generation Z and products like blind boxes that meet deep emotional needs [3] - MINISO LAND, a strategic store format by MINISO, opened its first two locations in Wuhan, enhancing its IP strategy and targeting young consumers [3] - Recommended companies include Pop Mart, Blokus, TOPTOY, and Lezi Tianceng [11] Sports and Outdoor - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 1.06 trillion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [4] - The sports apparel sector is expected to maintain high demand due to government support for the sports industry [4] - Recommended companies include Anta, Li Ning, 361 Degrees, and Bosideng [11] Beauty and Personal Care - Retail sales of cosmetics reached 328.8 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [10] - The growth rate for cosmetics in September was 8.6%, indicating strong consumer interest [10] - Recommended companies include L'Oréal, Mao Ge Ping, Jin Bo Biological, Runben Co., and Bai Ya Co. [11]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Jintian Animation Co., Ltd. is seeking an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, leveraging its popular IPs like Ultraman and My Little Pony, but faces challenges due to reliance on external IP licenses and a slowdown in growth in the first half of the year [1][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 2011, Jintian Animation is one of the first companies in China to integrate anime IP with food products, primarily producing and selling IP-themed snacks under brands like "Tianle Cartoon King" and "TALA'S" [3]. - The company previously listed on the New Third Board in 2016 but delisted in 2021 to improve operational efficiency and decision-making [3]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2022-2024 are 596 million, 664 million, and 877 million yuan, with net profits of 36.7 million, 75.2 million, and 130 million yuan respectively. The growth rates for 2023 and 2024 are 11.41% and 32.08% for revenue, and 104.92% and 72.82% for net profit [4]. - In the first half of 2025, revenue was 444 million yuan, a 9.82% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 70.04 million yuan, up 13.45% [4]. IP Dependency - Jintian Animation relies entirely on external IP licenses, with 99.5% of its revenue coming from these sources. The company has 26 IPs, including popular ones from Japan and the U.S. [6][8]. - The company has spent over 100 million yuan on IP licensing fees from 2022 to 2025, with a significant portion of its IP agreements requiring regular renewal [7]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company employs a multi-channel marketing strategy, with a focus on offline sales through over 2,600 distributors, covering more than 1,700 counties in China [9]. - The share of revenue from direct sales to retailers has increased significantly, from 3.5% in 2022 to 43.2% in the first half of 2025, while the share from distributors has decreased [9]. E-commerce Development - Jintian Animation's e-commerce channel is still in the exploratory phase, with online sales accounting for only 0.2% of revenue in 2024, increasing to 1.1% in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The company aims to establish a sales and marketing team in Southeast Asia to better understand local market demands and consumer preferences [11].

Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on the new consumption sector, highlighting companies such as Gu Ming and Mixue Group, while suggesting attention to Da Mai Entertainment [3]. Core Insights - The growth rate of social retail sales continues to slow down, with September 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [4][11]. - The impact of national subsidies is diminishing, leading to a decline in consumption growth across various categories [5][9]. - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival has seen early promotions from platforms like JD and Douyin, indicating a competitive landscape [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Social Retail Sales Data - In September 2025, social retail sales reached 41,971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [11]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales were 37,260 billion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year [11]. - The retail sales of food and beverages showed mixed results, with food sales increasing by 6.3% while beverage sales declined by 0.8% [11][15]. National Subsidy Impact - The report notes a significant reduction in the growth rate of categories benefiting from the "old for new" subsidy program, with categories like communication equipment and furniture showing year-on-year growth rates of 16.2% [9][12]. - The report anticipates continued pressure from high base effects in the coming months [9][10]. New Consumption Trends - New consumption categories are gaining traction, with gold jewelry sales increasing by 9.7% year-on-year due to rising gold prices [10][13]. - Sports and entertainment products also saw a robust growth of 11.9% year-on-year, reflecting consumer interest in outdoor activities [10][13]. Export Trends - In September 2025, China's export scale reached 328.57 billion USD, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [33]. - However, the export of consumer goods has generally declined, with significant drops in categories such as home appliances and clothing [35][37]. Holiday Economy - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [41]. - Total domestic travel expenditure was 809 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.4% increase compared to the previous year [41].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,027.55 points, up 0.65% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 6,007.94 points, up 1.26% [1] - The financial sector showed strength, with China Life Insurance rising over 6% [1] Group 2 - The new consumption concept faced a decline, with Pop Mart falling over 8% [1]

泡泡玛特2025年第三季度整体收益同比增长245%-250%，其中海外收益增长365%-370%，美洲市场爆发式增长超1265%。尽管增速惊人，但由于增 速较上半年放缓，投资者担忧公司增长神话能否持续，导致泡泡玛特港股周二大跌超8.1%。 随着Labubu系列的全球风靡，泡泡玛特三季度在中国大陆和海外市场的收益均实现了强劲增长。其中，美洲市场表现尤为突出，实现了超过12倍的爆 发式增长。 泡泡玛特港股周二大跌8.1%，创下自4月初以来的最大单日跌幅， 成为恒生中国企业指数中表现最差的成分股。有分析认为，在经历了上半年的爆炸 式增长后，部分投资者对这家消费明星企业的前景正转向谨慎。尽管泡泡玛特股价今年迄今的涨幅仍接近180%，远超同期大盘约28%的涨幅，但市场 的忧虑情绪已然显现。 增长预期回调，投资者担忧增长神话降温 21日，泡泡玛特公告， 2025年第三季度整体收益较2024年同期增长245%-250%。 其中，中国收益同比增长185%-190%，海外收益同比增长 365%-370%。 从渠道来看，中国线上渠道增速（300%-305%）远超线下（130%-135%），显示数字化转型成效显著。 海外市场表现来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and fall of Hong Jiu Fruit, highlighting the lessons that can be learned from its rapid decline after a brief period of success in the consumer industry [4][6]. Group 1: The Rise of Hong Jiu Fruit - Hong Jiu Fruit was once celebrated as "China's first fruit stock," achieving a market capitalization of HKD 60 billion and selling 25 million durians in 2022, accounting for nearly 10% of the national market share [8][9]. - The company reported revenues of CNY 15.08 billion and a net profit of CNY 1.452 billion in 2022, with a staggering year-on-year net profit growth of 405% [8]. Group 2: The Fall of Hong Jiu Fruit - The company faced a sudden halt in trading in March 2024 due to its inability to disclose its 2023 financial report, leading to an indefinite suspension [9][12]. - In April 2024, KPMG resigned as the auditing firm, revealing that Hong Jiu had made CNY 34.2 billion in prepayments to newly registered shell suppliers, which raised significant red flags [9][10]. Group 3: Common Pitfalls in the Consumer Industry - The first pitfall identified is a "self-destructive" cash flow model, where Hong Jiu's operational cash flow had a cumulative net outflow of CNY 4.06 billion from 2019 to 2022, with a further CNY 314 million deficit in the first half of 2023 [16][17]. - The second pitfall is family governance leading to a lack of oversight, where key positions were filled by relatives, allowing for unchecked financial decisions, such as the approval of CNY 34.2 billion in prepayments without proper risk control [18][20]. - The third pitfall involves misjudging consumer trends, as Hong Jiu continued to focus on high-end imported fruits while the market shifted towards more affordable options, resulting in significant losses [24][25]. - The fourth pitfall is the erosion of trust, as the founders engaged in questionable practices, such as secretly selling shares and misleading employees about the company's status [28][30]. Group 4: Lessons for the Consumer Industry - Companies should prioritize cash flow management before scaling operations, conducting regular cash flow pressure tests to avoid financial crises [33][34]. - It is essential to break away from family governance structures early on by introducing external oversight and professional management to ensure accountability [35]. - Understanding consumer trends should be a continuous effort, with regular market analysis and consumer research to adapt to changing preferences [36]. Group 5: Conclusion - The story of Hong Jiu Fruit serves as a cautionary tale for the consumer industry, emphasizing that sustainable growth requires careful management of cash flow, governance, and consumer trust [37][38].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|商贸零售 受国补边际效应减弱、中秋假期错位等 影响，9 月社零增速放缓 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年10月21日 邓文慧 郭家玮 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590525030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 证券研究报告 |报告要点 国家统计局发布社零数据，9 月份，社零总额为 4.20 万亿元，同比增长 3.0%。其中，除汽车 以外的消费品零售额为 3.73 万亿元，同比增长 3.2%；限额以上单位消费品零售额 1.78 万亿 元，同比增长 2.3%。 |分析师及联系人 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年10月21日 商贸零售 受国补边际效应减弱、中秋假期错位等影响， 9 月社零增速放缓 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2024/10 2025/2 2025/6 2025/10 商贸零售 沪深300 相关报告 1、《商贸零售：7 月社零同比+3.7%，环比有 所回落》2025.08.16 2、《商贸 ...

Core Insights - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates a market style switch in early October, leading to a recovery in the food and beverage index, with snacks, beer, and health products showing significant gains [1] - Looking ahead to late October, the focus will shift to Q3 earnings reports, with companies in the new consumption sector expected to perform well, highlighting potential investment opportunities in high-performing stocks and sectors [1] - For Q4 2025, two key themes are suggested: first, a year-end valuation switch focusing on new consumption companies with solid fundamentals; second, attention to cyclical sectors with low valuations and supply clearing, as PPI improvements gradually transmit to CPI [1]

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：市场投研资讯） ⭕事件描述 港股市场方面，恒生指数上涨2.42%报25858.83，恒生科技上涨3.00%报5933.17，恒生中国企业指数上 涨2.45%报9232.67，恒生港股通高股息率指数上涨1.35%。A股市场方面，上证指数上涨0.63%，沪深 300上涨0.53%，万得全A上涨0.79%，红利指数上涨0.75%。 行业主题方面：中信港股通一级行业中，商贸零售（+3.93%）、机械（+2.89%）、传媒（+2.86%）领 涨，有色金属（-0.46%）、基础化工（-0.04%）领跌。 概念方面： 人民币升值指数（+6.36%）、航空指数（+5.64%）、民航机场指数（+5.45%）领涨，黄金 珠宝指数（-3.64%）、在线教育指数（-2.85%）、贵金属指数（-2.53%）领跌。 ⭕ 事件评论 2025 年 10 月 20 日，港股市场大市成交额达到2391.6 亿港元，南向资金净卖出 26.70亿港元。 港股主要 指数普遍上涨， 从宏观来看主要是因为：10 月 18 日上午， 中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立 峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频 ...