这一理念的践行，离不开对宏观经济和产业的深刻洞悉、以及市场脉动的敏锐把握。回看市场，今年以 来，上证指数时隔10年再次站上4100点大关，点燃了市场热情，全A日均成交额已经突破3万亿元。站 在当前时点，随着"十五五规划"正式启动，新一轮科技革命重塑全球经济与产业格局，宏观环境的节奏 如何把握？科技变革的机遇在哪里？如何在复杂多变的市场环境中精准布局、挖掘超额收益？针对这些 问题，景顺长城资产配置、权益、固收以及混合资产管理团队的投研骨干在策略会上，进行了深入拆 解，并带来他们的最新研究和思考。同时，本次策略会还请来了外方股东景顺集团的投资专家，分享全 球视野下的资产配置策略，干货满满。 宏观环境：国内政策环境有利，美元走弱利好新兴市场 对于2026年的宏观环境，景顺长城首席资产配置官王勇持相对乐观的态度。他表示，2026年是"十五 五"规划开局之年，整体政策环境利好资本市场。一方面，财政政策延续取向积极，支出重点向民生领 域倾斜；另一方面，货币政策"适度宽松"基调不变，降准和降息仍有一定空间，但估计央行会保持审 慎。 王勇还指出，在科技、内循环、外循环三大齿轮转动下，中国经济结构转型成功概率正在提升。其中三 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For China, the energy strategy is to clean up traditional energy and shift the development focus to non-fossil energy. It is recommended to overweight industries related to non-fossil energy substitution in China, such as non-ferrous metals and rare earths, and wait for the opportunity of coal's bottom - rebound [1]. - For the US, the energy strategy is to prioritize traditional energy and restrict the development of new energy. It is advisable to be cautiously bearish on crude oil and consider buying on dips to obtain geopolitical conflict premiums [1]. Summary by Relevant Content China's Energy Strategy Traditional Energy - **Coal**: In 2026, coal demand will peak and production will continue to decline, with a structural adjustment of the coal industry. The domestic coal consumption will remain at the peak of 4.8 - 5 billion tons during 2026 and the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. The state will control the scale of new coal - fired power plants, promote the upgrading and transformation of coal - fired power, and develop new coal chemical industry to improve coal utilization efficiency. The coal production growth rate may turn negative in 2026, and production will be concentrated in resource - rich areas [5][8]. - **Petroleum**: To reduce the dependence on oil imports (73.2% in 2025), China will encourage oil exploration and development in 2026, open up the market access for oil and gas exploration, and utilize deep - sea, deep - layer and unconventional oil and gas resources. The "14th Five - Year Plan" will continue to guide the exit of backward production capacity in the petrochemical industry to solve the over - capacity problem [10][11]. New Energy - China has introduced a series of fiscal policies to support new energy development, including tax incentives, subsidies, special funds, and financing support. With the support of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the substitution of new energy for fossil energy is sustainable. The key is to develop energy storage facilities to solve the intermittency and volatility of new energy power generation [12][14]. US Energy Strategy Traditional Energy - **Coal**: The US energy strategy prioritizes traditional energy, with a focus on expanding domestic development. The demand for coal for power generation may increase significantly due to the growth of data centers' power demand. The US government has strong policy support for the coal industry, including providing more mining land, tax incentives, etc. [18][19][23]. - **Petroleum**: The US has set a high production increase target for oil. Although shale oil production is expected to be stable in 2026, traditional oil production will continue to increase slightly. The overall oil price is expected to fluctuate widely between $50 - 60 per barrel in 2026 if geopolitical risks subside [23][24]. Restriction on New Energy and Electric Vehicles - The US restricts the development of electric vehicles and non - fossil energy. The cancellation of electric vehicle subsidies may reduce the demand and penetration rate of electric vehicles, increasing the demand for gasoline and coal - fired power. The "Great and Beautiful Act" and other policies also limit the development of non - fossil energy [26][29]. Analysis of Sino - US Energy Strategy Differences - **Objective Conditions**: The differences in Sino - US energy strategies mainly come from resource endowments. China aims for non - fossil energy substitution to achieve green development and carbon peak goals, while the US tends to increase production of fossil energy [30]. - **Import - Export Structure**: China is highly dependent on imported oil and gas, while the US is a major energy exporter. China will reduce its dependence on imported traditional energy, and the US will develop domestic oil resources [30]. - **Use of Traditional Fossil Energy**: In China, coal is used for power generation, coal chemical industry and steelmaking, while in the US, 90% of coal is used for power generation and export [32]. - **Power Grid Infrastructure**: China's power grid is state - led and unified, with advanced energy storage technology to support non - fossil energy substitution. The US power grid is market - driven, which amplifies the problems of non - fossil energy power generation [32][33]. Investment Recommendations - **Coking Coal Futures**: The transformation of coal chemical industry is expected to relieve the pressure of over - capacity of coking coal. The price is expected to bottom out in 2026Q4 - 2027. Pay attention to coking coal 202610 [34]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The pattern of oversupply of oil may continue in 2026. With the decline of geopolitical risks, it is advisable to buy on dips [34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals ETF**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to continue to rise in 2026 due to the dual benefits of financial and industrial attributes. The Fed's expected interest rate cut and the demand from the "14th Five - Year Plan" for clean energy and power grid construction support the upward trend [35]. - **Rare Earth ETF**: Rare earths have strategic and industrial attributes, playing an important role in trade negotiations and new energy industries. It is recommended to maintain a certain degree of attention and allocation [35].

会议共有8项议程：一是审议山东省人民政府工作报告；二是审查山东省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案；三是审查山东省2025年国民经 济和社会发展计划执行情况与2026年国民经济和社会发展计划草案的报告、山东省2026年国民经济和社会发展计划草案；四是审查山东省2025年预算执行 情况与2026年预算草案的报告、山东省2026年预算草案；五是审议山东省人民代表大会常务委员会工作报告；六是审议山东省高级人民法院工作报告；七 是审议山东省人民检察院工作报告；八是选举事项。 齐鲁晚报齐鲁壹点记者杨璐范佳 山东省第十四届人民代表大会代表名额为930名，目前，实有909名，已有867名代表向会议报到。与会代表按照选举单位组成17个代表团，其中，以市为 单位组成16个代表团，驻我省部队代表组成1个代表团。 1月26日下午，山东省十四届人大四次会议举行新闻发布会，介绍会议议程及有关安排。 本次省人代会恰逢"十四五"圆满收官、"十五五"接续开启的关键节点，具有十分重要的意义。经过前期扎实工作，目前，会议各项准备事宜已全部就绪。 会议副秘书长兼新闻发言人，省人大常委会副秘书长、办公厅主任李业文介绍，省十四届人大四次会议于 ...

2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，更是中国经济激活新增长引擎、迈向高质量发展的关键节点。由国家 发改委宏观经济研究院出品，院长黄汉权领衔解析的《中国经济2026》正式出版。本书以扎实数据与前 沿研判，解读中国经济，提供与时俱进的经济读本。 《中国经济2026》深入解读当下备受关注的经济话题，如"消费市场新趋势与消费升级动力挖掘""新兴 产业发展机遇"等，既为政府精准施策提供科学依据，也为企业把握市场脉搏、调整发展战略指明方 向，从中洞察中国经济未来图景。 《中国经济2026》 中信出版集团 编辑：杨琳 在这本书中，各位专家学者基于"十四五"规划的收官成效，围绕"十五五"新开局新形势、新内需体系与 消费新动能、全国统一大市场与改革深化、新质生产力与产业创新、区域协调与民生保障现代化、高水 平安全与开放新格局六大核心议题，系统分析经济运行的重点与挑战，精准提出宏观政策、内需主导、 科技创新、产业升级、民生改善等关键领域的破局路径，助力读者读懂"十五五"经济发展逻辑。 展望2026年，人工智能技术等研发应用步伐加快，"十五五"规划开局红利释放，科技创新引领新质生产 力稳步发展，改革深化持续激发社会活力…… 中国经 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a differentiated consolidation last week, with small-cap indices outperforming large-cap ones. The basis discount of the four stock index futures varieties improved significantly, and the main contracts entered the futures premium mode. The bullish market of A-shares is expected to continue in the future, with sufficient liquidity in the first quarter and theme rotations centered around the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly showed differentiated consolidation, with relatively large increases in CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The basis discount of the four stock index futures varieties improved significantly, and the main contracts entered the futures premium mode. The basis of the main futures contracts (futures - spot) was 5.61 for IH, 6.70 for IF, 68.03 for IC, and 45.86 for IM. The A-share market showed a differentiated consolidation, with the weekly lines of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closing in the positive territory. The small and medium-sized indices were relatively strong, and the daily trading volume of the two markets remained above 2.5 trillion yuan, exceeding 3 trillion yuan on Friday. The money-making effect spread from a structural one to the whole market. The space photovoltaic + commercial space sector remained hot, basic metals and precious metals strengthened, power grid equipment benefited from the trillion-level investment plan, and the logic of semiconductor domestic substitution and technological iteration remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the large financial sector (banks/insurance/securities) adjusted continuously, and sectors such as liquor and home appliances performed poorly [2] Comprehensive Analysis - Macroscopically, the actual GDP in 2025 achieved a 5.0% growth, the same as in 2024, showing a "high in the front and low in the back" structure with external demand better than internal demand, and positive changes appeared in the price level. Overseas, the global bond market experienced a sell-off due to the statements of Trump and Koike Yuriko. The geopolitical risk in the US also reached an inflection point on January 21, and the global panic has been significantly alleviated, with a low possibility of a US or global liquidity crisis in the future. Looking forward, with sufficient liquidity in the first quarter, theme rotations will revolve around the "15th Five-Year Plan", and the fundamentals and corporate earnings are gradually being revised upwards, so the bullish market of A-shares is expected to continue [3][4]

相关机构表示，当前市场运行面临多重因素的博弈与对冲：一方面，中高估值水位、监管降温信号及海 外地缘风险共同抑制市场过热倾向；另一方面，科技创新与内需扩张的双轮驱动正在强化，政策端持续 发力催生结构性投资机遇。战略层面应紧扣"十五五"规划方向，重点布局包括新兴产业（新能源、新材 料、低空经济、航空航天）和未来产业（量子科技、脑机接口、具身智能）在内的科技创新领域。投资 策略上，坚持"科技创新+红利资产"的哑铃型配置，并以ETF工具平滑曲线、优化风险收益比。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 科创创业ETF（588360）跟踪的是科创创业50指数（931643），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指数从科创 板与创业板中选取市值较大、科技属性显著的50只新兴产业上市公司证券，重点覆盖电子、电力设备、 通信、医药生物等行业，以反映这些市场中代表性新兴产业公司的整体表现。 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of project investment as a key driver for economic development, aligning with the central economic work conference and local government directives to accelerate the construction of a national central city and modernize Wuhan [1][2] - The city plans to focus on major projects for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and aims for a strong start in the first quarter, with a commitment to creating a favorable environment for project execution [1][4] - There is a call for enhanced coordination and support to address challenges in project construction, ensuring timely completion and effectiveness of projects [1][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the need for a strategic approach to project planning and investment, focusing on attracting key industries and leveraging local advantages [2][3] - Emphasis was placed on the importance of a robust project investment mechanism, including innovative financing models and collaboration between government and private sectors [3][4] - The leadership aims to foster a culture of accountability and proactive engagement in project management to achieve growth and stability throughout the year [4]

Economic Stability and Progress - China's economy is showing resilience and stability, with a projected GDP growth of 5% by 2025, marking a significant milestone as the total economic output surpasses 140 trillion yuan [1] - The country has made notable advancements in technology and innovation, ranking 10th in the global innovation capability index and maintaining the top position in the Nature Index for scientific leadership [1] - The development of new productive forces is evident, with over 35,000 basic-level smart factories and a significant number of advanced and excellent-level factories established, reflecting a strong trend in industrial upgrading [1] Foreign Trade Resilience - Despite challenges from external tariffs, China's foreign trade has shown unexpected growth, particularly in exports to non-U.S. countries, with strong performance in sectors like integrated circuits, automobiles, and medical devices [2] - The export growth indicates a clear trend of upgrading the industrial value chain, although domestic demand remains weak compared to supply [2] Macroeconomic Policy Implementation - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy [3] - The goal for 2035 is to reach a per capita GDP of over $20,000, necessitating a doubling of the economic total from 2020 levels, which requires sustained annual growth rates above 4.5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The conference calls for a more active fiscal policy, maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit and debt while optimizing expenditure structures to support strategic national initiatives [4] - A moderately loose monetary policy is to be continued, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity and supporting key sectors [5] Supply and Demand Balance - The focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the domestic market is crucial, with initiatives aimed at boosting consumption and investment through government-led projects [6] - The government aims to increase public service spending to alleviate household burdens and stimulate consumption, particularly in the service sector [6] Investment and Innovation - Government investment is expected to play a significant role in driving growth, particularly in major infrastructure projects and social welfare initiatives [7] - Emphasis is placed on technological innovation, with plans to enhance the capabilities of key innovation centers in major urban areas, thereby improving China's position in the global innovation landscape [8] Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are necessary to address supply-demand imbalances, including the establishment of a unified national market and improvements in the tax system to incentivize local consumption [9] - Accelerating the urbanization of rural populations is identified as a key strategy to boost consumption and expand domestic demand [9]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session to achieve a strong start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization and requires comprehensive planning and execution [1] - Local leaders express commitment to applying the principles from the speech to drive high-quality development and practical results [1] Group 2 - The focus on building a modern industrial system and achieving an overall leap in the industrial framework is highlighted as a key strategic task during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Local governments are encouraged to develop new productive forces tailored to their regional strengths, emphasizing technological and industrial innovation [2] - Specific sectors such as pharmaceuticals, new materials, and energy chemicals are identified as priorities for industrial growth [2] Group 3 - The need to enhance the quality and efficiency of the national economic cycle is stressed to contribute to the new development pattern [3] - The role of Hainan Free Trade Port as a high-level platform for international cooperation is emphasized to facilitate domestic and international market integration [3] - The importance of coordinating economic and social development is highlighted, with a focus on improving people's living standards alongside economic growth [3] Group 4 - The necessity of strengthening party leadership, legal safeguards, and grassroots foundations to maintain national security and social stability is underscored [4] Group 5 - The consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements is identified as a major political task, with a focus on integrating assistance into rural revitalization strategies [5] - Addressing urgent public concerns related to employment and social security is emphasized to ensure effective outcomes in improving people's livelihoods during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tianjin is focusing on high-quality development as it embarks on the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the Tianjin Municipal Committee of the China Democratic National Construction Association (民建) playing a crucial role in this process [1][3]. Group 1: Organizational Goals and Strategies - The Tianjin Municipal Committee aims to enhance political guidance, strengthen organizational construction, and improve service capabilities to contribute effectively to the city's development [1][3]. - The committee emphasizes the importance of inheriting and promoting values such as patriotism, democracy, and innovation to support Tianjin's growth [3]. Group 2: Key Initiatives and Recommendations - A significant task undertaken by the committee involved enhancing innovation capabilities and supporting the Tianjin High Education Science and Technology Park, which included extensive field visits and discussions to identify shortcomings [2][4]. - Recommendations from the committee include establishing technology verification centers, creating a collaborative financial support system, and integrating key platform construction into the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][5]. Group 3: Regional Development and Collaboration - The committee is focused on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy, proposing a market-oriented approach to leverage Tianjin's regional advantages [4][5]. - Suggestions include enhancing cooperation with neighboring regions, granting greater reform autonomy, and developing a cross-regional benefit-sharing mechanism to facilitate industrial transfer and joint investment [5]. Group 4: Support for Member Enterprises - The committee is constructing a "power support" system to boost member enterprises' confidence and innovation, which includes political guidance, policy interpretation, and economic exchange activities [6]. - Initiatives such as "聚力·引领," "聚力·赋能," and "聚力·链接" are designed to enhance collaboration and resource sharing among member enterprises and government bodies [6].