Core Viewpoint - The price of trimellitic anhydride (TMA) has significantly dropped, losing over 72% from its peak last year, raising concerns about the viability of Changqing Technology's ambitious 10 billion TMA project amidst a challenging market environment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In September 2025, the mainstream transaction price of TMA in East China fell to 15,500-15,600 yuan/ton, reflecting a drastic decline from previous highs [2][14]. - The price of TMA surged to over 50,000 yuan/ton in 2024 due to global supply disruptions, but has since plummeted, with a 50% drop noted from early 2025 [13][17]. - The TMA market is facing a potential oversupply as multiple companies are expanding production, leading to fears of a price drop and supply-demand imbalance by 2026 [12][19]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Financials - Changqing Technology initiated an 8 billion convertible bond financing for its TMA project, which was approved by shareholders on September 19 [2]. - The company’s total assets are only 2.56 billion yuan, while the first phase of the TMA project alone requires an investment of 3 billion yuan, raising concerns about financial sustainability [25]. - The company has reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.67% and 31.89% respectively, indicating weakened profitability [25]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The closure of INEOS's TMA production facility has created a temporary supply gap, but the subsequent market response has led to aggressive expansions by domestic companies [6][8]. - Other companies like Zhengdan Co. and Baichuan Co. are also expanding their TMA production capacities, which could further saturate the market [9][12]. - The market's cautious sentiment towards Changqing Technology is reflected in its stock performance, with institutional holdings below 5%, contrasting with competitors like Zhengdan Co. which have higher institutional support [21][23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ (Two empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market shows different trends, with some metals being affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external events [1][2][5]. - Some metals are expected to continue their current trends, while others are facing uncertainties and may enter a period of adjustment or consolidation. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper significantly increased its positions and continued its upward trend, actively digesting the force majeure of the Grasberg copper mine and domestic smelters' "anti - involution" statements [1]. - Global mine - end supply is tightening, and the environment for processing fee negotiations is difficult. The spot copper price has risen to 82,505 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan in Shanghai and a refined - scrap price difference exceeding 4,500 yuan [1]. - LME copper is expected to reach $10,500, and the Shanghai copper index may break through the previous high this year and continue to rise to 84,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the East China spot at par. The apparent demand in September was lower than expected, and the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons compared to Monday, with pre - National Day destocking less than in previous years [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price increasing by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is approaching 98 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory is continuously rising. Supply is significantly in excess, and prices are falling. The current price still allows for profit in the production capacity of Shanxi and Henan, making it difficult to trigger production cuts, and alumina is weakly running towards the June low of 2,800 yuan [2]. Zinc - Driven by the sharp rise in copper prices, the non - ferrous metal sector was generally strong, and Shanghai zinc rebounded to recover the previous day's decline. LME zinc rebounded after returning to the 40 - day moving average due to low overseas inventories [2]. - Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the overseas market is strong, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestic consumption during the peak season is weak, and due to tariff impacts, galvanized sheet exports weakened in August. Affected by the super typhoon "Saola", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened [2]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around the 22,000 - yuan mark [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and market trading was dull. The sharp rise in external copper prices drove up nickel prices, but the improvement in its own fundamentals was limited [5]. - The upward trend of stainless steel spot prices is difficult to sustain, but the pre - National Day stocking demand is gradually emerging. Stainless steel mills are still in a state of cost inversion, and cost - side support is emerging [5]. - Nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. Shanghai nickel has exhausted its bullish themes, and nickel prices are weakly running and about to start a downward trend [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin closed up, and the spot tin price increased by 2,300 yuan to 273,700 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 at night, and LME tin inventory rose to 2,740 tons. Wait for the social inventory data tomorrow and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are in a short - term strong - side oscillation, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons [6]. - The low - price support for lithium prices is emerging, but the selling actions in the industrial chain are basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of the "anti - involution" trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [6]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up at 9,055 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan maintained their high operating rates during the wet season. However, the incremental release of demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the social inventory of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [6]. - Driven by market sentiment and the expected increase in costs, the futures price is short - term strong, but the support for continuous rise is insufficient, and it will mainly continue to oscillate [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly up. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re - feeding materials was basically stable at 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM) [6]. - In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month change. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon are expected to be synchronously reduced, and polysilicon still faces a slight inventory accumulation pressure [6]. - On the policy side, the capacity clearance continues to be gradually promoted, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating at the lower end of the range [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In the short term, industrial silicon lacks upward driving force, and silicon prices may shift to a volatile pattern. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of polysilicon enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot and Futures Price Trends - As of September 19, 2025, the price of East China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 9,350 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of East China Si4210 was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Supply Situation Analysis - In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 386,000 tons, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 19% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production was 2.597 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. In September, production is expected to increase by about 5% month - on - month [3][21]. - Xinjiang's weekly production was 33,610 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 69%, showing an increase. Northwest's weekly production was 10,950 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 77%, remaining stable. Yunnan's weekly production was 7,565 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 65%, remaining flat. Sichuan's weekly production was 6,035 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 52%, showing a decrease [25]. - There are many planned industrial silicon production capacity projects in 2025, with a potential production capacity of over 1 million tons. However, the industry needs to consider capacity clearance due to over - supply and inventory pressure [31]. 3.3 Demand Situation Analysis - Polysilicon: The price index this week was 52.35 yuan/kg, with a slight upward shift in the price center. Some enterprises have plans to reduce production. In August, domestic polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, and in September, production is expected to decline month - on - month [34]. - Organic silicon: The operating rate was stable, and the demand for industrial silicon remained stable. In August, production was 223,100 tons, a 11.67% month - on - month increase [48]. - Aluminum - silicon alloy: The operating rate showed a slight increasing trend, and the traditional "Golden September" effect was gradually emerging [3]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis - Raw material prices: Information on the prices of silica, petroleum coke, electrodes, and silicon coal is provided, but no specific price trends are detailed [89][91][95][96]. - Electricity prices in major production areas: In August, the electricity price during the flood season decreased, and the overall electricity price center shifted downward, but it is still at a medium - high level in the past 10 years [99]. - Profit: With the recent price rebound of industrial silicon, profits have been quickly restored [108]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - As of September 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 543,000 tons, a 4,000 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 120,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 423,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [115].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a significant shift, with a notable withdrawal of long positions and a decline in prices, driven by changing supply and demand dynamics and expectations of increased production from major players like CATL [2][9][10]. Market Dynamics - The benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has dropped to 71,683 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.07% decrease week-on-week and an 11.94% decline month-on-month [2]. - On September 10, the main futures contract opened significantly lower, reaching a low of 68,600 yuan/ton, nearly hitting the daily limit down [3][4]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards bearish, with a high proportion of short positions among the top 20 futures companies [4]. Supply and Demand Changes - The recent price drop is attributed to a transformation in the supply-demand fundamentals, particularly due to the anticipated resumption of production at CATL's Jiangxiawo lithium mine [9][10]. - Lithium carbonate production in August reached a record high of 85,200 tons, contributing to increased supply [13]. - The cost of producing lithium carbonate from spodumene has decreased from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to approximately 65,000 yuan/ton, further weakening the support for prices [11]. Demand Trends - Demand from traditional sectors, particularly mid-to-low-end electric vehicles, has shown signs of weakness, with battery manufacturers focusing on inventory reduction [14]. - Despite a 5% increase in production from leading battery manufacturers, actual purchasing intentions remain low due to ongoing price declines [14]. - The only bright spot in demand is the energy storage sector, which has seen its production share rise to 38.5%, a historical high [15]. Market Reactions - Traders are adopting a cautious approach, with many inquiries but limited actual transactions, reflecting concerns over further price declines [16]. - High-cost producers, particularly those relying on lithium mica, are facing significant losses and may reduce production or exit the market [17]. Future Outlook - The market is currently seeking a new price equilibrium, with long-term expectations suggesting prices will fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton [18]. - Some companies are adjusting their strategies, such as Ganfeng Lithium integrating lithium salt lake assets in Argentina [20]. - New technologies in lithium recovery and direct lithium extraction are gaining attention, with companies exploring ways to reduce costs further [21]. - Industry experts predict that lithium demand will maintain an annual growth rate of over 15% in the next five years, indicating a potential return to supply-demand balance [22].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a divergence between new and second-hand housing prices, with first-tier cities showing more resilience in new home prices compared to second-hand homes, which continue to decline [1][4][10]. Group 1: Price Trends - In August, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 1.0% [1]. - Second-tier cities experienced a more significant decline, with new home prices down 0.3% and second-hand prices down 0.6% month-on-month [1]. - Guangzhou saw the largest year-on-year drop in second-hand home prices, down 6.2% compared to last year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is more reflective of market sentiment, while new homes benefit from quicker supply adjustments and stronger demand in core areas [1][4]. - The divergence between new and second-hand home prices is expected to intensify, leading to the emergence of two distinct markets [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Key factors influencing the new home market include land supply, developer funding, and transaction volume [5]. - The concentration of land supply is increasing, with the top 10 developers accounting for 70% of the new value added in the real estate sector [5][6]. - In Beijing, major developers are acquiring a significant portion of land, leading to a potential regional supply monopoly and a shift towards high-end product development [6]. Group 4: Financial Conditions - Real estate developers' funding reached 64,318 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, but the decline rate has slowed [8]. - The new housing starts have decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, indicating a potential easing of financial pressures for major developers [8]. - The land market is showing signs of recovery, with the top 100 developers increasing their land acquisition by 31% year-on-year [8][9]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - The second-hand housing market is characterized by intense competition among individual sellers, leading to a downward price pressure [11][12]. - The decline in personal housing loans indicates a weakened willingness to buy among consumers, despite a potential increase in leverage capacity [13][16]. - Rental prices in cities like Beijing have also decreased, which may further delay potential buyers' plans to enter the market [14].

Group 1: Cement Industry - The average national cement shipment rate in August 2025 was 45.2%, down from 48.8% in the same period last year, with a year-on-year decrease in cement production of 6.2% to 148 million tons [1][2] - The average price of cement from July to September 2025 was 338 yuan/ton, showing a slight rebound from the low point in August, with a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton [2] - Companies to watch include Conch Cement (600585), Shangfeng Cement (000672), and China Resources Cement Technology (01313) due to potential marginal improvements in demand as the peak season approaches [2] Group 2: Glass Industry - From January to August 2025, the area of completed housing decreased by 17% year-on-year to 27.7 million square meters, indicating significant pressure on glass demand due to ongoing real estate downturn [3] - The daily melting capacity of float glass was 15.9 million tons as of September 2025, remaining stable compared to the end of last year, with high inventory levels of 55 million boxes [3] - Companies to focus on include Xinyi Glass (00868) and Qibin Group (601636) as the industry may see improvements in structure due to supply contraction [3] Group 3: Steel Industry - In August, both supply and demand in the steel sector weakened, with crude steel production at 77.37 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, and apparent domestic consumption at 68.39 million tons, down 0.8% year-on-year [4] - Anticipated production adjustments in the fourth quarter may improve industry supply and demand dynamics, leading to a potential recovery in the profitability cycle [4] - Key companies to monitor include Hualing Steel (000932) as the industry’s core assets are currently undervalued [4]

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy has announced a strategic financing agreement with InfiniCapital, raising approximately HKD 54.46 billion (around USD 7 billion) through a private placement of about 4.736 billion shares, aimed at strengthening its equity structure and funding growth initiatives [2][3]. Group 1: Financing Details - The financing will be primarily allocated to three areas: enhancing cash reserves for structural adjustments in polysilicon production, strengthening the second growth curve through increased production of silane gas, and optimizing the company's capital structure [2][3]. - The strategic partnership with InfiniCapital, which has a diversified investment portfolio, is expected to provide GCL-Poly with significant support for its growth in high-tech sectors [3]. Group 2: Market Context and Implications - The polysilicon industry is currently undergoing market adjustments, with a rapid increase in demand for silane gas, positioning GCL-Poly to capitalize on this trend [2][3]. - Analysts believe that this financing will enhance GCL-Poly's competitive advantage and allow it to effectively penetrate both domestic and international high-end markets, converting carbon emission advantages into pricing power [3]. Group 3: Future Plans and Financial Performance - GCL-Poly plans to establish a specialized industry fund with InfiniCapital to consolidate inefficient excess capacity in the industry, aiming to promote high-quality production and mitigate chaotic price competition [4]. - Financial projections indicate that GCL-Poly's EBITDA for the first half of 2025 is expected to reach approximately CNY 3.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 325.8%, while maintaining a competitive cash production cost of CNY 25.31 per kilogram [4].

Market Overview - The average transaction price of glass in the Shihe region is around 1140 yuan per ton [1] Supply and Demand - As of September 11, 2025, the national float glass daily production is 160,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% compared to four days prior. The total float glass production for the week (September 5-11, 2025) is 1,121,200 tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.38% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.49% [2] - The total inventory of sample enterprises for float glass is 61.583 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.467 million heavy boxes or 2.33% from the previous period, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.94%. The inventory days are 26.3 days, down by 0.6 days from the last period [2] Analysis - The overall sentiment in the glass market has improved, with industrial products stabilizing and rebounding. Glass is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations, leading to significant price rebounds. Last week saw good transaction volumes in the spot market and a reduction in inventory [3] - News regarding the transition to clean energy production lines in the Shihe region has triggered price increases, although the specific timeline for this transition is yet to be determined. The expected downtime is limited, and there are plans for some production restarts in the future [3] - Current inventory levels among manufacturers in the Shihe region are rising, and there has been no significant reduction in midstream inventory. Although there is a seasonal improvement in deep processing orders, demand remains weak, and the low operating rates persist without clear signs of peak season characteristics [3] - In the medium to long term, the industry is at the bottom of the real estate cycle, with a decrease in completions. The industry will need to clear excess capacity to resolve the current overcapacity issue. Monitoring the implementation of regional policies and the performance of downstream stocking ahead of the peak season is essential [3] Operational Recommendations - The current recommendation for the glass market is to adopt a wait-and-see approach [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is taking measures to promote high-quality development in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries while addressing issues of low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector [1] Supply Side Pressure - The soda ash industry is entering an adjustment period starting in 2024 due to significant capacity expansion driven by high profits, with nearly 10 million tons of new capacity added in the last three years, accounting for over 20% of total capacity [2] - As of mid-September 2025, domestic soda ash production reached 20.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% [2] - The domestic soda ash operating rate was 87.29%, with a weekly production of 761,100 tons, reflecting a 1.25% increase [2] - New capacity additions in the second half of 2025 and 2026 are expected to maintain supply pressure, with significant new capacities planned by various companies [2] Downstream Demand - The demand for float glass has significantly declined due to the real estate cycle, leading to a noticeable downturn in industry prosperity [3] - As of mid-September 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass was 160,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.81%, while photovoltaic glass was in a loss state with a daily melting volume of 88,800 tons, down 12.27% year-on-year [3] - The float glass operating rate was 76.01%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.79 percentage points [3] Inventory Trends - The continuous addition of new capacity and declining demand for both heavy and light soda ash have exacerbated the oversupply issue, leading to increased inventory levels [4] - As of mid-September 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory stood at 1.7975 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.1% [4] - The industry is expected to continue facing inventory accumulation, pressuring capacity clearance [4] Profit Decline - The production processes for soda ash include ammonia-soda, joint-soda, and natural soda, with respective capacity shares of 29%, 50%, and 21% [5] - The cost structure varies significantly among these processes, with raw material and fuel costs being substantial in ammonia-soda and joint-soda methods [5] - As of mid-September 2025, both joint-soda and ammonia-soda processes were operating at a loss, with profits of -36.3 yuan/ton and -54.5 yuan/ton, respectively [6] Industry Outlook and Strategy - The soda ash industry is expected to undergo a cyclical transition over the next 1-2 years, with an anticipated increase in industry concentration and a potential rise in the share of natural soda capacity [7] - Short-term trading strategies for soda ash contracts may face challenges, with strong support expected in the 1250-1300 yuan/ton range [7] - Key factors to monitor include the recovery of coal production and the implementation of policies to eliminate outdated capacity and restrict overproduction, which could alter the oversupply expectations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant risks, with a recommendation to expedite the elimination of outdated production capacity due to a stark decline in performance metrics compared to previous years [1] Industry Overview - The revenue of nearly 80 listed photovoltaic companies dropped from 476.01 billion RMB to 414.39 billion RMB year-on-year, marking a doubling of the decline rate, while net losses surged from 1.4 billion RMB to 8.95 billion RMB [1] - The number of loss-making companies increased from 33 to 42, and the industry's gross profit margin fell from 11.3% to 9.4% [1] - The peak performance period for the industry was in mid-2023, with a revenue growth rate close to 60% and a net profit of 70.2 billion RMB, where only 8 companies reported losses [1] Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a significant price drop of over 60% from its historical high in August 2022 until early 2024, followed by a recovery of approximately 37% since June 2023 [2] - The largest photovoltaic ETF experienced a 48% decline over three years but rebounded with a 36% increase in the past year, contributing about 35% of its gains since June [2] - Market interest in photovoltaics has been rekindled due to expectations surrounding capacity consolidation and measures to limit low-price bidding, alongside a post-policy-driven "installation rush" leading to unexpected price rebounds [2] Company Performance - Yangguang Electric, the leading global photovoltaic stock, saw its market value rise from around 130 billion RMB to approximately 284.7 billion RMB, achieving a two-year increase of about 110% [3] - The company reported a 40.3% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2024, with a net profit growth of 56% and a gross profit margin of 34.4% [4] - The storage business significantly contributed to Yangguang Electric's growth, with a 127.78% increase in revenue and a gross margin of 39.92% [4] Competitive Landscape - DeYe shares, which also focus on photovoltaic inverters and storage, saw its market value rise from 33 billion RMB to over 67 billion RMB, with a revenue growth rate nearing 50% and net profit growth exceeding 65% [5] - Jiejia Weichuang, a supplier of production equipment for photovoltaic manufacturers, experienced a market value increase from below 15 billion RMB to nearly 35 billion RMB, with a revenue growth of 26.4% [6] - Aishuo shares, which adopted a non-mainstream approach, saw its market value rise from below 14 billion RMB to nearly 30 billion RMB, benefiting from a growing market share in BC products [7] Conclusion - Despite some companies experiencing significant rebounds in market value, many still lack stable performance support, and the industry is not yet at a true turning point [7]