Market Overview - US stock markets mostly declined last Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising and reaching an intraday record high [1] - US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield hitting a two-week high as traders reduced bets on a larger-than-usual rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1] - The dollar fell, maintaining expectations for a rate cut in September due to a series of data releases [1] - Oil prices dropped by nearly $1 amid potential easing of sanctions on Moscow due to US-Russia talks regarding the Ukraine war [1] - Gold prices remained stable but experienced a weekly decline [1] Economic Indicators - US retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in July, with June's growth revised up to 0.9%, driven by auto sales and major online promotions [7] - Industrial output declined in July, affected by weak manufacturing [7] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index unexpectedly fell for the first time since April, with rising inflation expectations due to tariff concerns [7] - Foreign investors held a record amount of US Treasury bonds in June, with the largest increases from the UK and Belgium, while China's holdings remained largely unchanged [7] Corporate Developments - OpenAI plans to invest trillions of dollars in building AI data centers and is reportedly looking to sell approximately $6 billion in stock to investors, valuing the company at around $500 billion [7] - Longfor Group (0960.HK) anticipates a core profit decline of about 70% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 due to a downturn in the real estate market affecting profit margins [9] - WeRide (WRD.US) announced a multi-million dollar equity investment from Southeast Asian platform Grab, aiming for large-scale deployment of Robotaxi services in the region [9] Currency and Commodity Markets - High-beta currencies performed poorly, while major core currencies (euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc) strengthened, leading to a decline in the dollar index [10] - Oil prices fell as investors focused on the US-Russia summit, which could reshape Russia's oil flow [11] - Gold prices remained stable amid market fluctuations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The competition between Apple and Samsung in the U.S. smartphone market has intensified, with Samsung experiencing a significant increase in market share while Apple's dominance shows signs of decline [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In Q2 2025, Samsung's shipments reached 8.3 million units, capturing 31% of the market share, a notable increase from 6.0 million units and 23% market share in Q2 2024, reflecting a 38% annual growth [2]. - Apple's shipments fell to 13.3 million units, resulting in a market share decrease from 56% to 49%, marking an 11% decline year-over-year [2]. - Overall smartphone shipments in the U.S. totaled 27.1 million units in Q2 2025, showing a slight annual growth of 1% compared to 26.7 million units in Q2 2024 [2]. Group 2: Product Innovation - Samsung's resurgence is attributed to the launch of innovative foldable smartphones, including the Z Fold 7 and Z Flip, which have garnered significant attention on social media [3][4]. - The Z Fold 7 can transform into a tablet, while the Z Flip resembles a modern smartphone with a flip design, appealing to a wide range of consumers [3]. Group 3: Market Strategy - Analysts suggest that Samsung's ability to offer a diverse range of products at various price points, from low-end to high-end devices, has contributed to its market share growth [4]. - Samsung's Galaxy and Z series phones range in price from $650 to $2400, allowing the company to target different consumer segments effectively [4]. - In contrast, Apple's strategy has been to wait until a technology is mature before adopting it, with expectations of launching its first foldable iPhone in September 2026 as part of the iPhone 18 series [5].

日妆持续在走下坡路，且不止在中国市场面临严峻挑战，从整体业绩、业务、地区表现等不同视角看，日妆巨头们也有各自的难题： 海外及除中国外的其他市场(如东南亚泰国)寻增量，花王美洲、欧洲、海外分别增长2.4%、3.0%、2.3%，I-ne清算中国子公司转战东南亚，高丝则致力于 进军海外南方市场并加强泰国店铺布局。 日妆巨头们近年来面临难题已是不争的事实，结合聚美丽梳理的日妆企业最新财报数据来看，还有以下关键信息值得关注： 营业利润冰火两重天：花王暴涨近108%，高丝、I-ne分别下滑17.7%、17.0%； 日妆巨头旗下品牌多陷下滑困境：醉象暴跌57%，安热沙、资生堂品牌、黛珂、POLA分别下滑15%、4%、1.5%、3.2%； 日妆巨头们在日本市场面临部分挑战：如高丝旗下雪肌精下滑0.5%，日本化妆品市场下滑3.4%，醉象日本闭店等； 受中国市场拖累，日妆在包括中国市场在内相关市场下滑占多数，时至2025年，撤退、清算、闭店动向仍不断； 最高大跌18%，日妆巨头们各有难题！ 剔除非化妆品业务后，从2025年上半年五大日妆企业业绩表现来看，仍存挑战。 如下图所示，仅花王营利双增，营业利润大涨107.87%，但净销售 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the better-than-expected performance of the US economy in July, which, along with stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, led to a reversal in the global capital "rebalancing" trend, with funds flowing back to the US [2] - Developed market indices saw an overall increase, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 3.7% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.9% [4][5] - The article highlights the significant rebound in glass prices, which increased by 13.9% [50] Group 2 - The article notes that the US core CPI for July was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, but the performance of goods related to tariffs was notably weak [70][74] - The article mentions that the market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, driven by the weaker-than-expected CPI data [70] Group 3 - The article reports that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.0 basis points to 4.3%, while yields in other developed countries also saw increases [22] - Emerging market 10-year Treasury yields showed mixed results, with Turkey's yield rising by 205.5 basis points to 31.2% [27] Group 4 - The article indicates that the US dollar index fell by 0.4% to 97.85, while the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.1891 against the dollar [33][43] - It also notes that commodity prices mostly declined, with WTI crude oil dropping by 1.7% to $62.8 per barrel [48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent controversy surrounding Swatch's marketing campaign, which has led to significant backlash from Chinese consumers and a subsequent apology from the company. The situation is compounded by declining sales and potential impacts from U.S. tariffs on Swiss imports. Group 1: Company Response and Controversy - Swatch issued an apology on August 16, acknowledging the backlash regarding the model's portrayal in their ESSENTIALS series and has removed all related materials globally [3] - The controversy has sparked strong protests from Chinese consumers, highlighting issues of racial sensitivity in marketing [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Swatch Group reported a sales decline of 11.2% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with net sales at 3.059 billion Swiss francs [7][8] - The company's net profit plummeted 88% to 17 million Swiss francs, with a net profit margin of 0.6%, down from 4.3% in the previous year [7][8] - The Chinese market, which is Swatch's largest regional market, generated 2.63 billion Swiss francs in 2023, accounting for 33.3% of total sales, but saw a 30% decline in 2024 [8] Group 3: Market Conditions and Tariffs - The U.S. is Switzerland's largest export market, with 19% of Swiss exports going to the U.S. The Swiss watch industry exported 26 billion Swiss francs worth of watches in 2024, with the U.S. accounting for 16.8% of this total [12] - The recent increase in tariffs to 39% on Swiss imports by the U.S. could severely impact Swiss brands, including Swatch, which derives 18% of its sales from the U.S. market [11][14] - Analysts warn that sustained high tariffs could be devastating for many Swiss brands, as the company has already raised prices by 5% in response to earlier tariff announcements [14]

Core Viewpoint - Tariffs have re-emerged as a focal point in global economic and trade policies, particularly due to the rise of trade protectionism in the U.S. and the reevaluation of tariff policies by multiple countries amid geopolitical conflicts and fiscal pressures [5]. Summary by Sections Origin and Characteristics of Tariffs - Historically, tariffs originated as a form of transit fee for cross-border goods, primarily aimed at controlling the movement of people and goods, rather than for fiscal purposes [7]. - Tariffs have evolved from being a minor component of national fiscal systems to a crucial tool for economic intervention and revenue generation, especially since the 16th century with the rise of international trade [8][11]. Functions of Tariffs - Tariffs serve three main functions: revenue generation, protection of domestic industries, and economic regulation [11]. - The role of tariffs has shifted over time, influenced by economic development and prevailing economic ideologies, with their revenue-generating function becoming less significant in developed countries [12][19]. Evolution of Tariff Systems - The evolution of global tariff systems can be divided into five main stages from the 16th century to the present, reflecting changes in economic thought and development levels [13][14]. - **First Stage (16th-18th Century)**: Mercantilism dominated, with tariffs primarily used for revenue collection [15]. - **Second Stage (19th Century)**: The rise of free trade theories led to a reduction in tariffs in industrialized nations, while developing countries continued to rely on tariffs for revenue and protection [16]. - **Third Stage (Early 20th Century)**: Protectionism surged post-World War I, reinforcing tariffs as tools for revenue and industry protection [17]. - **Fourth Stage (Post-WWII to 2017)**: Establishment of a global free trade system led to a general decline in tariffs and a shift towards income and consumption taxes as primary revenue sources [18]. - **Fifth Stage (2018-Present)**: A resurgence of protectionism, particularly in the U.S., has seen tariffs used again for industry protection and economic regulation [19]. Dependency on Tariff Revenue - Global economies can be categorized based on their dependency on tariff revenue, with developed economies generally showing low dependency (below 3%), while some developing economies exhibit medium (3%-5%) or high dependency (over 5%) [20][23][26]. - Countries like Japan, Canada, and the U.S. have low tariff revenue contributions to their overall fiscal income, while nations like the Philippines show a high reliance on tariffs due to weaker tax systems [23][28].

Global Asset Price Performance - Global long-term government bond yields have generally risen. Major global stock markets saw an increase this week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.9%, 1.7%, and 0.8% respectively, likely supported by stable interest rate cut expectations and a mild inflation rebound [2] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points, attributed to rising consumer inflation expectations in Michigan [2] - Oil prices declined this week, with the IEA predicting a slowdown in oil demand growth. Gold prices weakened, reaching a new low in the past two weeks. The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.4% this week [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Inflation remains stable, supporting interest rate cut expectations. Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding rate cuts, preferring to wait for more data before making decisions. U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the Fed is considering a 50 basis point cut in September [4] - The Bank of Japan is perceived to be slow in raising interest rates, with Japanese officials downplaying external political pressures on domestic monetary policy [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The July CPI year-on-year growth rate remained steady at 2.7%. Core services held steady, while energy and food prices cooled, countered by rising goods prices. The PPI year-on-year growth rate increased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.3%, with the largest month-on-month increase in three years [12] - Retail sales year-on-year growth decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. Core retail sales excluding automobiles saw a month-on-month growth of 0.3%. The Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 58.6, with one-year inflation expectations rising from 4.5% to 4.9% [14] - The imposition of tariffs on chips was noted, with Nvidia and AMD agreeing to pay 15% of their sales revenue from China to the U.S. government. Trump hinted at imposing chip tariffs potentially as high as 300% [14] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone industrial production showed a month-on-month decline of 1.3% in June, indicating a marginal weakening in industrial production, particularly in non-durable consumer goods and capital goods [26] - Japan's economy showed strong performance with a quarterly GDP growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year growth rate of 1%, driven by increased capital expenditure and strong exports [26]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report indicates a strong production momentum in the phosphate segment, with DAP production expected to be between 5.9 to 6.2 million tons in 2025. Market conditions for DAP improved in Q2 2025 due to stable demand and supply constraints from China [7] - The aluminum segment maintains its production guidance for 2025, with primary aluminum production expected between 850,000 to 1,150,000 tons. However, aluminum prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and changing trade flows [7] - The gold segment is projected to meet its production guidance for 2025, with production expected between 475,000 to 560,000 ounces. The gold price remains high, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and demand from global central banks [7] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached 94.16 billion Saudi Riyals, an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter, driven by overall sales volume growth across all business segments [3] - Q2 2025 EBITDA was 37.85 billion Saudi Riyals, reflecting a 9% quarter-on-quarter growth [3] - Q2 2025 net profit was 19.22 billion Saudi Riyals, marking a 24% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - Q2 2025 earnings per share (EPS) stood at 0.51 Saudi Riyals, also a 24% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] Production and Sales Overview - Phosphate segment: Q2 2025 DAP production was 1.705 million tons, an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume at 1.761 million tons, a 15% increase [11] - Aluminum segment: Q2 2025 alumina production was 461,000 tons, a 4% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with aluminum production at 247,000 tons, a 1% decrease. Average realized price for alumina was $381 per ton, down 32% [12] - Gold segment: Q2 2025 gold production was 108,000 ounces, a 12% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while sales volume increased by 6% to 118,000 ounces. Average realized price for gold was $3,316 per ounce, a 16% increase [13] 2025 Outlook - The company maintains a capital expenditure guidance range of $7.55 billion to $9.55 billion for 2025, with approximately 70% allocated for growth capital expenditures [9] - The company is advancing its long-term growth objectives, aiming for an 8 to 10 times increase in EBITDA by 2040 [9] - Recent strategic acquisitions and partnerships are expected to strengthen the company's market position and capitalize on regional demand growth opportunities [9]

Economic Growth - Japan's Q2 2025 real GDP growth rate increased from 0.6% to 1%, exceeding the expected -0.4%[1] - Nominal GDP growth rate rose from 1% to 1.3%, slightly below the expected 1.4%[1] - Net exports contributed positively to GDP growth, with a turnaround in growth rate[3] Consumer and Investment Trends - Private consumption growth rate slightly decreased from 0.9% to 0.6%, but remained positive[3] - Private sector investment growth rate increased from 4.2% to 5.1%, contributing 1.0 percentage points to GDP[3] - Government spending continued to decline, with a growth rate improvement from -1.6% to -0.4%[3] Export Dynamics - Export growth rate rebounded significantly from -1.2% to 8.4%, with goods exports rising from 2.7% to 8.2%[3] - Net exports contributed 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, indicating a positive shift in external demand[3] Future Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to resume interest rate hikes by the end of the year due to economic recovery prospects[1] - The Japanese government revised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7%[1] - Risks include potential impacts from tariffs and inflation, which could affect economic momentum[1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has officially canceled the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was designed to regulate banks' activities in the cryptocurrency and fintech sectors, integrating this oversight into the standard banking regulatory framework [2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Announcement - On August 15, the Federal Reserve announced the closure of the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was established in 2023 to enhance the regulation of banks' cryptocurrency activities [3]. - The Federal Reserve Board stated that it has deepened its understanding of the risks associated with these activities and will now incorporate this knowledge into standard regulatory processes [3]. Background of the Program - The program was initiated in response to the 2023 banking crisis, which saw the collapse of three banks closely tied to the cryptocurrency industry: Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank [3]. - The aim was to closely monitor innovative and unverified technologies that could pose risks to the banking system [3]. Key Focus Areas of the Program - The program focused on areas such as cryptocurrency custody, loans collateralized by cryptocurrencies, assistance in digital asset trading, issuance of stablecoins and dollar tokens, and projects utilizing distributed ledger technology [4]. - The latest requirements simplify compliance processes for banks engaging in cryptocurrency activities, while core regulatory principles like anti-money laundering and consumer protection remain unchanged [4]. Regulatory Environment Shift - The Federal Reserve's actions reflect a broader trend of U.S. regulatory agencies becoming more accommodating towards the cryptocurrency industry [5]. - Since the Trump administration, there has been a push to position the U.S. as a "global cryptocurrency hub," with recent regulatory changes allowing banks to independently decide on engaging in cryptocurrency activities [5]. Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties [6]. - Recent data showed a 0.9% month-over-month increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, driven primarily by service sector inflation, which rose by 1.1% [6]. - Market expectations indicate a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with varying probabilities for subsequent cuts later in the year [7].