Green garlands, giant nutcrackers, baubles and bows go up in early November on the historic downtown building that houses the gift shop. Inside, customers can choose from over 500 different types of ornaments and a variety of holiday gift baskets.“We really just make it a magical spot,” co-owner Emily Butler said. “Whether you come in or not, we want to make sure that we’re spreading that holiday joy.”But Butler says she and her twin sister-business partner had to work harder this year to turn browsers int ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储威廉姆斯：企业已在应对关税方面做得很好。 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储威廉姆斯：关税实施前的市场提前布局已拉长了其影响。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a maximum tariff of 145% on Chinese goods, which is framed as a necessary action to correct trade imbalances, but has led to significant negative impacts on American middle-class families [1] - Domestic companies, such as General Motors, are facing operational disruptions due to supply chain issues caused by tariffs, with production lines halted due to a lack of imported components [2] - The consumer price index in the U.S. has risen above 6% for three consecutive months following the tariff implementation, marking the highest increase since 1982, affecting everyday goods like ketchup and baby formula [2] Group 2 - Former President Bill Clinton criticized the tariff strategy, stating that the U.S. has lost $80 billion while China's trade surplus has exceeded $1 trillion, contrasting it with past cooperative trade agreements [4] - The Democratic Party is leveraging the economic fallout from the tariffs to gather testimonies from unemployed workers, highlighting the failure of the promised manufacturing revival [4] - The U.S. administration has reduced some tariffs from 30% to 20% in response to public backlash, but domestic semiconductor manufacturing remains underutilized, and Vietnam has seen a surge in electronic orders [6] Group 3 - The International Monetary Fund reported a 1.2% decline in global trade growth due to the tariff war, with the U.S. suffering significant economic losses while China has managed to maintain growth through market expansion in Southeast Asia [8] - Major automotive companies like BMW and Toyota are shifting production to Mexico and Thailand, respectively, indicating a trend of supply chain restructuring away from the U.S. [8] - The ongoing trade conflict has highlighted the futility of unilateral actions in a globalized economy, with calls for cooperation rather than confrontation being emphasized by leaders like Clinton [10]

Economic Data - The upcoming week will see the release of significant economic data, including the non-farm payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, which will be published simultaneously for the first time in history [3] - The NFP report, set to be released on Tuesday, is expected to show a decrease of 10,000 jobs for October due to many former federal employees delaying their departure, but a strong rebound of 130,000 jobs is anticipated for November [3] - The CPI report will be released on Thursday, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase for both overall and core CPI, leading to year-on-year rates of 3.1% and 3.2% respectively, driven by tariff cost transmission [3] Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President John Williams will speak tonight, marking his first statement since November and the first after the December Fed meeting, which is crucial for market sentiment [5] - The market is currently in a delicate position, where slight negative data could lead to a forced rate cut, while slightly positive data could result in a pause in rate cuts [5] - According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January 2026 is 24.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 75.69% [5] Market Predictions - Robert Edwards, CIO of Edwards Asset Management, predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach 7,000 points by the end of this year and continue to rise in 2026 [7] - Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its forecast for the S&P 500 to reach 7,600 points in 2026, indicating approximately 10% upside potential from current levels [7] - Multiple institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, also project over 10% upside for the U.S. stock market [7] International Affairs - Significant progress has been made in U.S.-Ukraine talks regarding a "peace plan," with Ukraine's President Zelensky indicating a willingness to accept bilateral security guarantees instead of NATO membership [9] - In the Middle East, tensions have escalated following an attack by ISIS on U.S. troops in Syria, leading to a response from President Trump, and Israeli airstrikes in Gaza have further complicated the situation [11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global economy continues to show resilience against tariffs and broader uncertainties, with an improved outlook compared to previous updates. The global growth forecast for 2025 has been raised by 0.3 percentage points, particularly notable in the U.S. and Japan [4][5][8]. Economic Growth Projections - **Global Growth**: The forecast for global GDP growth in 2025 is now 3.4%, with a slight decrease to 3.0% in 2026 [9]. - **U.S. Growth**: The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.0% for both 2025 and 2026, supported by strong consumer spending and AI-driven investments [4][10][13]. - **Japan**: Japan's GDP growth is expected to be 1.0% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, driven by fiscal stimulus and improvements in real wages [4][30]. - **China**: China's GDP growth is forecasted at 4.9% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, with ongoing challenges from weak household confidence and real estate concerns [30]. - **Euro Area**: The Eurozone is expected to grow at 1.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with stable growth despite tariff impacts [17][19]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - **Global Inflation**: The overall global inflation forecast for 2025 has been slightly lowered to 1.9%, with expectations of a return to target levels in various regions by 2026 [9][10]. - **U.S. Inflation**: The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) is expected to remain above 2.5% in 2025, with core PCE projected to be close to 3% in 2026 [4][10][13]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates once more in 2026 after a reduction in December 2025. The Bank of Japan is projected to raise rates twice, reaching 1.0% [4][10][19]. Risks and Uncertainties - Ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the U.S.-China trade relationship, may continue to impact market sentiment [4][30]. - Concerns about asset market overheating and labor market distortions due to rapid AI adoption are also highlighted as potential risks [4][10]. Key Economic Indicators - **GDP Growth Rates**: - U.S.: 2.0% (2025), 2.0% (2026) - Euro Area: 1.4% (2025), 1.2% (2026) - Japan: 1.0% (2025), 0.8% (2026) - China: 4.9% (2025), 4.4% (2026) [9][10][30]. - **CPI Projections**: - U.S.: 2.7% (2025), 2.8% (2026) - Euro Area: 2.1% (2025), 1.7% (2026) - Japan: 2.6% (2025), 1.4% (2026) [9][10]. Conclusion - The global economic outlook is cautiously optimistic, with growth expected to remain robust in major economies despite facing various challenges. The focus on monetary policy adjustments and inflation management will be crucial in navigating the upcoming economic landscape [4][10][30].

Core Viewpoint - The president anticipates a resurgence in manufacturing, while economists are predicting a recession and high inflation rates [1] Group 1 - The president's prediction indicates a potential shift in the manufacturing sector, suggesting optimism for growth and revitalization [1] - Economists' forecasts highlight concerns regarding economic stability, emphasizing the risks of recession and inflation that could impact various industries [1]

大摩：美联储下一步动向及市场反应 20251212 摘要 美联储降息决策将高度依赖未来经济数据，而非预先设定的风险判断， 鲍威尔强调了数据的重要性，并明确排除了未来再次加息的可能性。 劳动力市场存在技术性调整因素，可能导致就业数据下修，包括年度基 准修订和移民管制，这些因素增加了劳动力市场状况的不确定性，可能 促使美联储维持较低利率。 关税对通胀的影响预计将持续到 2026 年第一季度末，商品价格可能继 续上涨，导致 2025 年初的年同比通胀率略高于 3%，但预计此后通胀 将回落。 预计美联储将在 2026 年 1 月再次降息，原因是就业数据显示劳动力市 场持续降温，并可能在 4 月份再次降息以支持劳动力市场，届时联邦基 金利率可能降至 3%至 3.25%并保持稳定。 当前 10 年期国债收益率接近 4%，预计 2026 年上半年将温和下降，原 因是美联储将继续降低政策利率，长期利率大幅上升的可能性不大。 自今年 1 月开始的美元贬值趋势预计将在上半年持续，但下半年美元可 能出现一定程度的反弹和升值。 Q&A FOMC 会议再次降息 25 个基点，市场反应积极，但内部存在分歧。此次会议 有哪些重要启示？ 委 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Christopher Waller emphasizes a cautious stance on the current interest rate path, despite optimistic expectations for a significant rate cut by 2026, due to persistent high inflation over the past few years [1][2]. Inflation Concerns - Current U.S. inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for four and a half years, with businesses and consumers prioritizing rising prices as a key economic concern [1]. - Some inflationary pressures may stem from external factors like tariffs and are considered temporary, but prolonged pressures could complicate monetary policy [1]. Labor Market Insights - Waller notes only "slight cooling" in the labor market, with no evidence suggesting a deterioration that would prompt the Federal Reserve to restart rate cuts before early 2026 [1]. - He opposes recent calls for rate cuts, advocating for a wait-and-see approach to gather more clear signals regarding inflation trends [1]. Interest Rate Outlook - Waller expresses concerns about "premature interest rate cuts," arguing that loosening monetary policy before inflation stabilizes could undermine previous anti-inflation efforts [2]. - He remains optimistic about the possibility of significant rate reductions within the next year, contingent on inflation gradually easing as expected [2].

尽管业绩超预期，但截至发稿，开市客周四美股盘后跌近1%。该股今年迄今已累计跌约4%。对于这家 长期跑赢市场的公司来说，这是一个令人惊讶的逆转。过去五年，该股累计上涨135%，超过了标普500 指数同期88%的涨幅。 开市客股价今年的平淡表现表明，华尔街开始怀疑该股跑赢市场的能力——尽管其估值仍然昂贵。该股 目前的预期市盈率约为43倍，低于近期57倍的高点，但仍显著高于标普500指数22.5倍的市盈率。 智通财经APP获悉，开市客(COST.US)公布的2026财年第一季度业绩好于市场预期。财报显示，开市客 Q1营收为673.1亿美元，同比增长6.4%，好于市场预期的671.4亿美元。其中，净销售额为659.8亿美 元，同比增长8.2%;会员费用为13.3亿美元，同比增长14.0%。净利润为20.0亿美元，同比增长11.3%;摊 薄后的每股收益为4.50美元，好于市场预期的4.27美元。Q1同店销售额增长6.4%，好于市场预期。其中 美国同店销售额增长5.9%。电子商务销售额则增长20.5%。 这份业绩反映出开市客持续强劲的销售增长，该公司通过不断更新的优惠活动、更大包装规格和广受欢 迎的Kirkland品牌吸 ...