（文章来源：第一财经） 据外媒报道，美联储理事戴利称，关税的影响主要局限于商品。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a high overall market risk, particularly during a de-risking period, with a focus on concentrated positions in data center stocks and a pessimistic sentiment towards consumer sectors [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance reflects internal divisions regarding the level of policy accommodation, contributing to market concerns about economic prospects despite a generally loose financial environment [2][3]. - Over two-thirds of companies reported earnings exceeding expectations by more than one standard deviation, yet their single-day performance lagged behind the S&P index, indicating high client positioning levels and a preference for AI-related stocks while shorting consumer-related stocks [1][3]. - The Supreme Court's deliberation on the AEBA tariff case could lead to a significant reduction in effective tariff rates, currently around 15%, if tariffs are deemed invalid, although the government may seek alternative methods to reimplement tariffs [1][4][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Employment market data, including Challenger data, reveals concerns about the labor market, exacerbating fears about the economic outlook [1][2]. - The stock market's recent weakness is attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish position and worries over soft economic data, with a potential recovery contingent on the Fed acknowledging these data and taking stabilizing measures [2][11]. Market Sentiment - Despite a tightening of institutional investor positions, retail investors remain optimistic, with a potential trigger for CTA stop-loss levels [3]. - The current environment shows a significant interest in AI stocks while consumer stocks face downward pressure, leading to substantial corrections in popular retail and semiconductor stocks [3][5]. Tariff Implications - If the Supreme Court rules against the government regarding tariffs, the effective tariff rate could decrease by up to 7.5 percentage points, with the government likely to explore alternative measures for tariff implementation [4][6][7]. - The government may utilize temporary tariffs under Section 122 or initiate investigations under Section 301, which could prolong the process of implementing new tariffs [7][8]. Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown, now lasting approximately 37 days, is tied to a standoff over Senate filibuster rules, with pressure mounting to resolve funding issues as critical deadlines approach [9][10]. - A resolution to the government shutdown is anticipated around mid-November, which could significantly impact consumer sentiment and market dynamics [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. There were still global uncertainties. Force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the sharp rise of precious metals stimulated the increase of copper prices. Domestically, it was the off - season for consumption, and the downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was normal, mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,900 tons, slightly increasing last week, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons compared with last week [4]. - In terms of supply - demand balance, it was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and tariff factors affected prices. Force majeure in Indonesian mines and the rise of precious metals stimulated price increases. Domestically, it was the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory slightly increased, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: No specific content provided [10]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, it was in a tight balance, and in 2025, it would be in surplus. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table showed the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee was at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content provided [27]. - **Import Profit**: No specific content provided [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content provided.

Core Viewpoint - Trump announced a plan to distribute at least $2000 to every American, excluding high-income individuals, as a response to the current economic situation and ongoing government shutdown [2][5]. Group 1: Funding Source - Trump claims the funds will come from tariffs, asserting that tariffs have made the U.S. the wealthiest and most respected nation, with low inflation and record-high stock markets [3][10]. - He emphasizes that the U.S. generates trillions in revenue annually, which will help repay the national debt of $37 trillion [3]. Group 2: Reasons for the Announcement - The first reason for the cash distribution is to signal to the U.S. Supreme Court, which is reviewing tariff cases, as Trump is anxious about the potential outcomes that could affect his policies [6][11]. - The second reason is to reassure the American public amid the ongoing government shutdown, which has caused significant economic distress for many citizens [12][16]. Group 3: Public Reaction - The American public's response is polarized, with supporters praising Trump's actions while critics label them as lies [13][14]. - Some Americans question the source of the funds, arguing that tariffs ultimately burden the American people rather than foreign countries [16]. Group 4: Trump's Characteristics - Trump is noted for his adept use of new media, consistently generating headlines and maintaining a strong public presence [21][23]. - His strategic approach includes making bold announcements that keep him in the spotlight, often using psychological tactics to influence public perception and political dynamics [30][31]. - Despite his age, Trump is recognized for his relentless campaigning and engagement with the media, showcasing a high level of energy and commitment [33][36].

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations this week, initially rising above the 100 mark to reach a three-month high before falling back below 100 on Thursday, currently reported at 99.55 [1] - The precious metals market saw significant volatility, with gold prices dropping to a near one-month low of $3930 per ounce before rebounding, while silver fluctuated between $47 and $49 per ounce [1] - The oil market continued its downward trend, with both crude oil benchmarks declining for four consecutive trading days due to weak factory activity in Asia and rising global inventories [1] Employment and Economic Indicators - The US job market showed mixed signals, with ADP reporting an addition of 42,000 jobs in October, ending a two-month decline, while Challenger reported a record 153,000 layoffs, a 175% year-over-year increase [6] - The Federal Reserve is engaged in heated discussions regarding potential interest rate cuts, with differing opinions on the current economic conditions and inflation risks [7] Political Developments - The US government shutdown continues to impact the economy, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating losses of $11 billion after six weeks and $14 billion after eight weeks, affecting air travel and food assistance programs [8][9] - The Supreme Court is debating the legality of Trump's tariffs, with skepticism from both liberal and conservative justices, potentially impacting future trade policies [10] Corporate Developments - Goldman Sachs predicts limited impact on trade dynamics even if the Supreme Court rules against Trump's tariffs, while also noting potential 30% returns for Chinese stocks by the end of next year [5] - Tesla's shareholders approved a $1 trillion compensation plan for Elon Musk, aiming for a market cap increase from $2 trillion to $8.5 trillion, with ambitious targets set for vehicle deliveries and autonomous driving capabilities [15][16] Industry Insights - The US government updated its critical minerals list, adding ten new minerals including copper and silver, to reduce reliance on foreign sources and promote domestic mining [14] - OpenAI and Amazon Web Services entered a $38 billion computing power agreement, marking a significant collaboration in the AI and cloud computing sectors [18] - Nvidia's CEO expressed confidence in China's potential to win the AI race, criticizing Western regulatory approaches [17]

该组织表示，零售商在去年假日季的销售额达到9760亿美元，同比增长4.3%。而今年假日季预计消费 者总支出在1.01万亿至1.02万亿美元之间，较去年增长3.7%至4.2%。 多家机构预测零售增长 据美国零售联合会称，假日消费占美国零售业全年销售额的19%，对某些零售商而言，这一比例还要高 得多。此外，美国的消费者支出数据备受关注，因为其约占该国国内生产总值的70%。 尽管美国消费者深陷通胀担忧，但美国全国零售联合会周四发布的2025年预测显示，美国在11月和12月 的假日购物季支出有望突破万亿美元，高于去年。 美国零售联合会是全球最大的零售行业协会，成员包括百货商店、在线平台、独立零售商、餐馆等，拥 有超过380万家零售店，协会成员覆盖超过5200万名员工。 美国零售联合会总裁兼首席执行官Matthew Shay周四表示，消费者表现出非常积极的行为和参与度，这 有些出乎意料。但越来越多的消费者变得更加挑剔，他们十分关心折扣。 Shay还强调，虽然假日季支出再次增长，但增速可能放缓。不过，其预测的数字仍高于2010年至2018年 期间的3.6%年均增幅。 在疫情期间，美国假日季消费大幅增长，2020年假日季销 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views 粕类产业 - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but the cost - side support is strong. The downward space is limited. The near - month shipment crushing margin is negative, and there is still a gap of more than 8 million tons from November to January. With the strengthening support of US soybeans, it is expected to be difficult to purchase cheap soybeans in the future, and the support for soybean meal will increase [1]. 油脂产业 - Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected to rebound to the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range in the short - term, and then face resistance. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, and it is expected to rise to the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. CBOT soybean is near the technical pressure level. CBOT soybean oil has limited upside and will maintain a narrow - range shock in the short - term. Domestically, the supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the basis quotation fluctuates little [2]. 生猪产业 - The spot price has declined recently, the secondary fattening has increased again, the spot supply is normal, and the slaughter enterprises have little difficulty in purchasing. The pig price fluctuates mainly. The overall slaughter progress will slow down in November, which may boost the pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and be bullish on the single - side. The 3 - 7 reverse spread can continue to be held [4]. 玉米 industry - In the supply side, the supply in the Northeast is sufficient, and the price is stable due to farmers' reluctance to sell and state reserve support. In the North China, the purchase and sale are average, and the price is also stable. In the demand side, the enthusiasm for building inventories in the trading link is average, the deep - processing inventory is stable, and the feed inventory is replenished due to being at a low level, but it is still mainly for rigid demand, and the long - term orders are few. The corn supply rhythm is okay currently, the market is in a low - level shock in the short - term, but there is still selling pressure in November [7]. 白糖 industry - The expected increase in supply surplus, weakening energy prices, and good weather in major producing areas have led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure, but there is significant cost support below 5400. The spot market is tepid, and the market maintains a low - level shock [12]. 棉花 industry - The new cotton cost supports the cotton price, but there is also hedging pressure for the price to rise. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished product inventory pressure is not large, and textile enterprises have demand for purchasing cotton raw materials at low prices. The cotton price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term [13]. 鸡蛋 industry - In the short - term, the egg market has an oversupply pressure. The price may be in a dilemma of rising or falling, but with the slow recovery of demand, it may gradually rise. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.99%) from the previous day. The futures price of M2601 is 3068 yuan, down 2 yuan (-0.16%). The basis of M2601 is - 8 yuan, up 35 yuan (81.40%) [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2550 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of RM2601 is 2549 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.47%). The basis of RM2601 is 1 yuan, down 12 yuan (-92.31%) [1]. - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3920 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4146 yuan, up 23 yuan (0.56%). The basis of the main soybean contract is - 226 yuan, down 23 yuan (-11.33%) [1]. 油脂产业 - **Palm oil**: The current price of Jiangsu's first - grade palm oil is 8390 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.12%). The futures price of Y2601 is 8188 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.61%). The basis of Y2601 is 202 yuan, down 40 yuan (-16.53%) [2]. - **Soybean oil**: The current price of Guangdong's 24 - degree palm oil is 8540 yuan, down 10 yuan (-0.12%). The futures price of P2601 is 8732 yuan, up 142 yuan (1.65%). The basis of P2601 is - 192 yuan, down 152 yuan (-380.00%) [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Jiangsu's third - grade rapeseed oil is 9780 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.31%). The futures price of OI601 is 9564 yuan, up 157 yuan (1.67%). The basis of OI601 is 216 yuan, down 127 yuan (-37.03%) [2]. 生猪 industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 12025 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (-0.12%); the price of live pigs 2601 is 11940 yuan, down 5 yuan (-0.04%); the 1 - 5 spread is - 82 yuan, up 10 yuan (10.53%) [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 11900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 12020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; in Sichuan is 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 玉米 industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 is 2154 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.94%); the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan, unchanged; the basis is - 4 yuan, down 20 yuan (-125.00%) [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2469 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.73%); the spot price in Changchun is 2510 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 41 yuan, down 18 yuan (-30.51%) [7]. 白糖 industry - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5448 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.13%); the price of sugar 2605 is 5388 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.09%); the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.22 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents (0.71%) [12]. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.88%); the Nanning basis is 362 yuan, up 55 yuan (17.92%) [12]. 棉花 industry - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13615 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 is 13605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.07%); the ICE US cotton main contract is 64.48 cents/pound, down 0.59 cents (-0.91%) [13]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 14618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (-0.06%); the CC Index of 3128B is 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.03%) [13]. 鸡蛋 industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the egg 12 - contract is 3227 yuan/500KG, up 10 yuan (0.31%); the price of the egg 01 - contract is 3386 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.03%); the basis is - 295 yuan/500KG, up 37 yuan (11.19%) [15]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying chicken chick price is 2.80 yuan/feather, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled chicken price is 4.11 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan (-4.20%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.38, up 0.03 (1.28%) [15].

当地时间11月6日，美国总统特朗普在回答记者"是否认同美国民众正在为关税买单"的问题时，表示"不 同意"。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 特朗普同时承认"他们可能付出了一些代价"，但又称"总体来看美国人获得了巨大好处"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contradictory stance of the U.S. regarding tariffs on China, particularly in the context of rare earth elements, highlighting the U.S.'s heavy reliance on Chinese supplies while threatening to impose additional tariffs [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy and Rare Earth Dependency - The U.S. is heavily dependent on China for rare earth elements, with 83.7% of its supply coming from China, particularly in heavy rare earths, which are almost entirely imported [5]. - Despite a recent trade truce where the U.S. agreed to cancel 91% of tariffs on China, the U.S. is threatening to raise tariffs again due to China's control over rare earth resources, which could lead to a detrimental cycle of retaliation [5][7]. - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that continued tariffs could cost American businesses an additional $42 billion annually, impacting consumers and producers alike [5]. Group 2: International Reactions and Market Dynamics - While the U.S. calls for a "tariff alliance" against China, many allies are opening their markets to China, with the EU canceling punitive tariffs and Australia committing to zero tariffs on dairy and wine products [7][8]. - Japan has also implemented zero tariffs on 86% of goods from China under the RCEP framework, benefiting from reduced prices on popular products [8][10]. - The article emphasizes that in the context of globalization, trade benefits are prioritized over political posturing, as companies recognize the necessity of engaging with the Chinese market [10][11]. Group 3: The Future of Trade Relations - The U.S.'s inconsistent tariff policies are portrayed as a political performance, but the ultimate determinant of trade relations will be market forces [11]. - The article concludes that the essence of international relations is not zero-sum competition but rather opportunities for mutual growth and wealth creation [11].

特朗普改口承认，由于政府所设定的关税，美国消费者确实在为商品支付更高的价格。在被问及是否同意美国人在承担关税的看法时，特朗普称：“不，我不同意。我认为他们可能确实承担了一些费用。但从整体影响来看，美国人获益匪浅。 ...