在最高法院推翻特朗普总统大部分关税措施后，美元持续承压。法院周五裁定特朗普动用专用于国家紧 急状态的法律实施全面关税属越权行为。裁决公布后不久，特朗普签署公告对所有进口美国商品临时加 收10%关税，随后于周六宣布将税率提高至15%。德国商业银行的Thu Lan Nguyen在报告中指出，市场 似乎正关注关税作为政府财政扩张计划重要资金来源这一事实。美元指数下跌0.3%至97.483，早前曾触 及97.355的五日低点。 责任编辑：王许宁 在最高法院推翻特朗普总统大部分关税措施后，美元持续承压。法院周五裁定特朗普动用专用于国家紧 急状态的法律实施全面关税属越权行为。裁决公布后不久，特朗普签署公告对所有进口美国商品临时加 收10%关税，随后于周六宣布将税率提高至15%。德国商业银行的Thu Lan Nguyen在报告中指出，市场 似乎正关注关税作为政府财政扩张计划重要资金来源这一事实。美元指数下跌0.3%至97.483，早前曾触 及97.355的五日低点。 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，或因天气原因，春节假期出行需求对相关消费拉动明显；春节假期原油等全球定价商品价格中枢保持强势，PPI同比于 Q2转正概率进一步增加。 海外方面，1）美最高院裁定特朗普关税非法，裁决结果出来后特朗普立即采取122关税征收150天的15%临时进口关税，2月24日 生效。2）美国Q4实际GDP环比折年率1.4%，预期2.8%，前值4.4%。投资是主要亮点，由0.8%升至2.6%。3）美联储1月纪要显示 内部分歧加大，总体来看，官员对就业市场的担忧有所减轻，而对通胀的担忧则有所增加。 资产方面，预计节后国内资本市场除关注春晚题材外，仍将加大对通胀（PPI）方向的配置。值得注意的是，即便国际油价受美伊 局势影响，但其价格中枢也将继续保持上移态势，上调WTI油价全年均值至65-70美元/桶区间。 1、春节经济数据看点：1）出行：春节居民出行意愿高涨，全国迁徙指数显著高于2019及2025年，自驾公路出行占主导，腊月二 十五至正月初四，全社会跨区域流量同比增长7.55%；国内出游占主导，出入境游进一步活跃，赴日旅行人数骤减；重点旅游地区 的游客数量、收入增长可观；2）票房：出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme Court's decision to strike down the majority of Trump's tariffs raises new uncertainties regarding the U.S. economy, especially with a temporary global tariff now in effect [1] Group 1 - The Supreme Court has invalidated most of Trump's tariffs, which could lead to significant changes in trade dynamics [1] - A new temporary global tariff has been implemented, adding another layer of complexity to the economic landscape [1] - The combination of these tariff changes is prompting fresh questions about their impact on the U.S. economy [1]

2026年2月20日，华盛顿最高法院大楼里的气氛，估计比外面的天气还要冷。九位大法官以6比3的票数，一锤定音，认定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》征收的大规模全球关税"超出了总统权限"。这份裁决书，就像一盆冰水，直接浇在了特朗普最引以为傲的"贸易战"成果上。要知道，自2025年1月上 任以来，他靠着这条法律，对从中国到加拿大、从巴西到印度的数十个贸易伙伴加征了税率不等的关税，涉及商品价值难以估量。 裁决公布后，华尔街的交易员们松了口气，股市大盘应声翻红。但白宫椭圆形办公室里的那位，可没打算认输。仅仅几个小时后，特朗普就出现在了记者会 上，脸上的表情混合着愤怒和不屑。他猛烈抨击投出赞成票的六位大法官，用词激烈，指责他们"可耻"、"不爱国"。紧接着，他宣布了一个让全球贸易商头 皮发麻的消息：他将立即签署行政命令，依据《1974年贸易法》第122条，对所有国家进口的商品加征10%的"全球基准关税"，这项新税将于2月24日正式生 效。 特朗普的算盘打得很响。虽然最高法院堵死了他动用紧急权力法的路，但1974年贸易法第122条给了他一个"备选方案"。这条法律允许总统在认为存在"根本 国际支付失衡"时，短期征收最高 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market reacted positively to the Supreme Court's ruling, with major indices closing higher; the S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.9% on Friday [1] - Oil prices increased by approximately 5.5% last week, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in supply due to U.S. actions against Iran, resulting in a monthly return of about 11% [1] - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is anticipated to provide insights into upstream input costs amid persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Economic Data - Nvidia's fourth-quarter earnings report is expected to be a key indicator for the AI trading landscape, with results due on Wednesday [2] - Salesforce's earnings on Wednesday will help gauge the software sector's sell-off, which has significantly impacted the industry [3] - Home Depot and Lowe's earnings reports will serve as alternative indicators for the real estate market [3] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Policy Developments - The Supreme Court ruled against a significant portion of Trump's tariff system, stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president broad authority to impose tariffs [4] - Following the ruling, Trump announced a new 10% global tariff, which was later increased to 15%, indicating a shift in trade policy despite the court's decision [6] - The potential for a refund of tariffs, estimated at $175 billion, is now under consideration by the trade court, with companies likely to file for refunds [5] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Oil Market Implications - Oil prices have risen by 15% since early 2026, largely due to tensions with Iran, with potential military actions being considered by the U.S. [7] - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily, remains a focal point for market concerns regarding geopolitical stability [7] - Analysts suggest that if U.S. military actions against Iran are limited, oil prices may spike temporarily by about $10 per barrel, but could stabilize quickly [7][8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of tariffs and currency devaluation on global trade dynamics, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China relationship and its implications for exports and consumer prices [1][3][5] - The Chinese central bank has allowed a slight depreciation of the yuan against the dollar to maintain export competitiveness, with a target exchange rate around 7.5 [3][5] - The devaluation of the yuan has made Chinese goods cheaper for European buyers, enhancing price competitiveness across various sectors, including clothing and electronics [5][7] Group 2 - The article highlights that currency devaluation affects all imports, leading to increased production costs for companies reliant on dollar-denominated raw materials, which ultimately raises consumer prices [7][9] - The ongoing currency war has broader implications, with ordinary consumers facing higher costs for imported goods, such as food and electronics, while export-oriented companies may benefit from preserved profit margins [11][13] - The article notes that the trade negotiations in 2025 show some progress, with a potential easing of tariffs and a positive outlook for foreign investment in the Chinese stock market [15][16]

美国财经网站investinglive分析师Adam Button表示，特朗普将他昨日刚刚宣布的关税从10%提高到了 15%。现在看来这简直就像是"业余选手"的表演了，因为他们本有好几个月的时间来研究关税被推翻的 可能性。不过关税裁决实际上剥夺了特朗普利用关税手段的权力，或者说至少限制了他那种短时间内的 冲动式谈判行为。如今关税税率已定为 15%，他便不能再因为一则电视广告或者某个外国政客的言论 而大发雷霆并对其征收关税了。他在此所使用的第122条也将使关税在150天后失效。此外，与他所说的 相反，昨天发布的行政命令明确指出，这些关税要到2月24日才开始生效，所以对于进口商来说，这里 有一个短暂的缓冲期。我认为这会在一定程度上影响某些商品的进口量，不过对2月份的总体数据影响 可能不会太大。 ...

格隆汇2月22日｜对许多国家来说，特朗普最新宣布的15%关税税率比在IEEPA关税下面临的税率要 好。RSM US首席经济学家Joe Brusuelas指出，此前面临高达50%关税的巴西，以及加拿大、印度、印度 尼西亚、墨西哥和南非，将面临较低的税率。但他补充说，阿根廷、澳大利亚、沙特阿拉伯和英国等国 家将面临更高的关税。此外，就目前而言，沃尔玛、塔吉特、好市多和亚马逊等零售商将从较低的关税 中受益，而家电行业将受到特朗普关税的严重打击，对家得宝、劳氏和宜家等公司产生了负面影响。虽 然钢铁和铝关税不受影响，但汽车零部件的关税是"对等的"。这对通用汽车、福特和丰田等汽车制造商 来说是个好消息。在众多商品上支付了更高价格的消费者可能不会从较低的关税中受益，而且个人进口 商能否获得退税也存在不确定性。 ...

格隆汇2月21日｜2028年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆周五接受福克斯新闻商业频道采访时表 示，如果特朗普政府通过其他方式维持大部分关税，那么他对经济前景的看法不会发生重大变化。他还 表示，他想了解企业是否会收到关税退款，以及退款金额是多少。当被问及今年降息的可能性时，穆萨 莱姆表示，美联储的基准利率目前处于或低于所谓的"中性利率"水平，即既不会刺激经济增长也不会抑 制经济增长的水平。这一水平能够很好地应对美联储使命的任何方向。 ...

格隆汇2月21日｜欧洲央行管委Panetta：关税对美国自身的伤害大于对其他国家。关税导致了贸易流动 格局重组。美国需要欧洲。欧洲需要共同债务来实现增长。通胀风险可能双向发展。货币政策必须保持 灵活。 ...