菜油、鸡蛋、沪铜等少数品种收跌 10日下跌品种较少，仅菜油、鸡蛋、碳酸锂、沪铜、燃料油等少数品种收跌，且跌幅均不足1%。由于蛋鸡存栏处于高位，且淘鸡进度缓慢，鸡蛋价格今年 持续偏弱运行，上半年的五一、端午均未能显著提振鸡蛋价格，近日高温多雨天气对于蛋价形成抑制，同时随着08合约临近限仓，多头离场打压期货价格， 按照多年走势规律来看，8、9月份涨价概率仍存，但幅度或不及往年。 （文章来源：新华财经） 截至10日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1404.66点，较前一交易日上涨15.73点，涨幅1.13%；中证商品期货指数收报1947.45点，较前一交易日上涨 21.8点，涨幅1.13%。 多晶硅势不可挡玻璃涨超5% 7月10日，商品市场情绪持续高涨，多晶硅及黑色建材类商品表现强势。其中多晶硅主力合约连续第四个交易日大涨，今日以5.50%的涨幅领涨国内商品市 场。现货方面，机构数据显示，本周多晶硅报价大幅上调25%-35%，单今日涨幅就超过10%，此外下游硅片价格也显著上调。不过，多数分析认为多晶硅基 本面仍然偏弱，虽然当前盘面受到了乐观情绪支撑，但下游需求不足，可能难以够承接如此高价的原料。此外，供应端，据我 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for caustic soda increased by over 3% [1] - Oxide aluminum, No. 20 rubber, rubber, pure benzene, and coking coal rose by more than 2% [1] - Shipping rates on the European route increased by 2% [1] Group 2 - Glass, coking coal, soda ash, styrene, pulp, and red dates all saw increases of over 1% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity market experienced a significant increase on July 9, with polysilicon prices rising over 5%, coking coal up over 3%, and other commodities like pure benzene, coke, and alumina also seeing gains of over 2% [1][2] - Polysilicon prices were driven by production cut expectations, leading to a 5.03% increase after a previous day of limit-up trading, with macro policy guidance contributing to a substantial rise in spot prices [2][3] - Coking coal's main contract saw a rise of 3.81%, supported by improved market sentiment and a 2.6% increase in the operating rate of washing coal plants, indicating better demand and reduced inventory levels [3] Group 2 - The copper market faced volatility due to the Trump administration's announcement of a 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S., leading to a surge in U.S. copper prices while London and Shanghai copper prices weakened [4] - The price disparity between U.S. and European copper futures reached an extreme level, with a difference of $2400 per ton, compared to a historical average of $300 per ton, indicating significant market disruptions [4] - China's bonded zone copper premium rose above $150, suggesting that domestic copper prices may remain resilient due to tight upstream funding and low deliverable copper inventories [4]

期货盯盘神器正在直播 美国关税反复扰动，黄金却震荡走弱，商品期货后市方向怎么看？期货资深研究员Leo将分析热门品种 行情，分享期货盯盘神器的订单流、量价分布、资金炸弹实战案例，手把手教你捕捉交易机会。立即进 入直播间。 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - On July 8, polysilicon prices surged by 7%, hitting the daily limit, while the shipping index for European routes increased by over 7% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1390.13 points, up 5.19 points or 0.37% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - The strong performance of polysilicon is attributed to expectations of price increases and a reduction in production capacity, with major manufacturers collaborating to raise prices to alleviate cost pressures [3] - Current market expectations for polysilicon have not been fully digested, with inventory levels reported at 27.2 million tons, indicating ongoing accumulation [3] Group 3: Shipping Market Insights - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes reported a value of 2258.04 points, reflecting a 6.3% increase compared to the previous period [2] - Market optimism persists despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the region [2] Group 4: Egg and Styrene Market Trends - Egg futures continued to decline, dropping over 1% and reaching a five-year low due to high inventory levels and strong supply [4] - Styrene futures also fell by over 1%, with weak demand and high supply contributing to the price drop [4]

2025年07月08日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：特朗普征税函显示对日韩等 14 国征收 25%到 40%不等关税、8 月 1 日生效，欧盟或接近协议。市 | | | | | | | | | | | | 场再度抛售美股美债，风险偏好下行。华东华南平水铜现货升水 70 元和贴水 50 元成交。伦敦结构 77 美金 | | | | | | | | | | | 铜 | back。精废价差 1600 元附近。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：铜供应端紧张难以缓解，等待回撤企稳买入机会。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日-1. ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆生长状况良好，叠加贸易忧虑情绪升温，美豆期价震荡偏弱运行。国内大豆市场供应充裕。 油厂高开工率背景下，豆粕产量持续快速增长，油厂豆粕库存连续 8 周低位回升。在国内油厂远期买船依 旧谨慎的背景下，下游市场对远期供应收紧的预期支撑了采购需求。油厂豆粕提货量持续高位，饲料企业 物理库存天数低位回升。短期豆粕期价震荡运行。 策略参考 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：受到国际油价下挫的拖累，油脂期价整体偏弱运行。同时随着 ...

1. Natural Rubber Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 1.2 Core View Short - term macro - warming and state reserve purchase news boost rubber prices, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro events [2]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 4th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 110, with a growth rate of 169.23%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36% [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 865 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 14.29%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.07% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a growth rate of 157.52%; Indonesia's production increased by 6,200 tons to 200,300 tons, a growth rate of 3.19%; India's production increased by 2,300 tons to 47,700 tons, a growth rate of 5.07%; China's production increased by 38,900 tons to 97,000 tons. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 7.64 percentage points to 70.41%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 1.89 percentage points to 63.75%. In May, domestic tire production decreased slightly, while tire exports increased by 7.72%. The total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 13.35% [2]. 2. Log Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2.2 Core View From a fundamental perspective, the demand for logs enters the off - season during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the shipment volume from New Zealand is expected to decrease seasonally. The market is gradually entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but recent positive news has boosted market sentiment [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 4th, the 2509 log contract closed at 795 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The prices of major deliverable spot products remained unchanged. The price of medium - sized A - grade radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter [5]. - **Supply**: In May, the port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 13.20%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a decline of 7.94% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of June 27th, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.36 million cubic meters, a slight increase from the previous week. The daily average log shipment volume was 65,700 cubic meters, an increase of 21,000 cubic meters from the previous week [5]. 3. Glass and Soda Ash Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For soda ash, although the recent policy has boosted the market sentiment, the supply - demand pattern is still in excess. In the long - term, there will be a further profit - reduction process. For glass, the market sentiment has improved recently, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to reverse the situation. In the short term, both are affected by market sentiment, with large price fluctuations [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.34%, while the 2509 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.25% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.08%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.73% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 1.08 percentage points to 82.21%, and the weekly production decreased by 0.8 tons to 709,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 0.1 tons to 15,780 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 4,020 tons to 94,390 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased slightly, while the soda ash factory inventory increased by 5 tons to 278,000 tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 5 tons to 228,000 tons [6]. 4. Industrial Silicon Industry 4.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 4.2 Core View In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly due to production cuts. In the long term, the increase in production after resumption will intensify the pressure of oversupply. Attention should be paid to the production - cut plans of polysilicon and the impact of coking coal prices. In the context of anti - involution policies, the arbitrage strategy of buying polysilicon and short - selling industrial silicon is favorable [8]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 4th, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.57% from the previous day. The basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increased by 80 yuan, a growth rate of 11.59% [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.75%; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton; the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 25% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a growth rate of 6.5%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 25,300 tons to 209,300 tons, a growth rate of 13.75% [8]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 22,800 tons to 150,100 tons, a decline of 13.19%. The social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 552,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.85% [8]. 5. Polysilicon Industry 5.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 5.2 Core View In the short term, the polysilicon futures market fluctuates greatly under the background of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply increases while the demand decreases, and the price is still under pressure. However, policy expectations have a great impact on the market, and prices are expected to rise in the long term. Attention should be paid to risk management [9]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 48.42%; the basis of cauliflower - like material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.13% [9]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 460 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.31%. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers decreased by 15,400 GW to 11,900 GW, a decline of 11.46%. The weekly production of polysilicon increased by 400 tons to 24,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.69%. In June, the production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1% [9]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 200 tons to 27,200 tons, a growth rate of 0.74%. The silicon wafer inventory decreased by 890 GW to 19,220 GW, a decline of 4.43% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches based on the specific situation of each commodity, such as waiting for buying opportunities after a pullback, selling short at high prices, or taking a wait - and - see approach [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance was weak on Friday. Fundamentals include Trump's tariff threat and high copper prices leading to a need for consolidation. The supply side has low processing fees and slightly increasing domestic inventory. The trading strategy is to wait for a pullback and then buy [2]. - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract closed down 0.22% on Friday. Supply is stable with high - load production, while demand has a 1% drop in weekly aluminum product开工率. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices due to weakening price support [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract closed down 0.07% on Friday. Supply capacity increased by 400,000 tons, and demand is stable. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and buying long - term call options [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices rebounded last week. Supply is high with a slight decline in weekly output, and demand is expected to increase 2 - 3% in July before entering the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices after the market consensus is reached [2]. - **Tin**: Market performance was weak on Friday. Fundamentals include Trump's tariff threat and short - term tin ore shortages. The trading strategy is to wait for a pullback and then buy [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The 2510 contract was flat. The market has a balanced supply - demand situation with low inventory pressure. The trading strategy is to wait and try a 10/1 reverse spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract was flat. Supply - demand is neutral, and the trading strategy is to wait and set up long positions in the far - month coil - ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. The trading strategy is to wait [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans were closed on Friday. Supply is loose in the near - term and normal in the far - term, and demand is in line with expectations. The trading strategy is to follow the international cost side, and the focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract declined. The supply - demand is tightening, but wheat substitution and increased imports may suppress prices. The trading strategy is range trading [4][5]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar had small increases. International sugar is expected to decline, and domestic sugar will follow the international trend. The trading strategy is to sell short [5]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton was closed on Friday, and Zhengzhou cotton was strong. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices and trade in a range [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Prices declined slightly on Friday. Supply is decreasing marginally but still high, and demand is increasing. The trading strategy is to focus on production and policies [5]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract was flat. Supply is high, and demand is affected by weather. The trading strategy is range trading [5]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was flat. Supply is increasing, and the trading strategy is range adjustment [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The contract declined slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [6]. - **PVC**: The v2509 contract declined 0.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and the trading strategy is to wait [6]. - **PTA**: PX prices are rising, and PTA is in a de - stocking phase. The trading strategy is to hold PX long positions, do PTA positive spreads, and short processing fees at high prices [6]. - **Rubber**: The RU2509 contract declined 0.36%. Supply is affected by rain, and demand has some pressure. The trading strategy is to wait and then short after the US tariff policy is clear [6]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract declined 0.1%. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and the trading strategy is to wait [6][7]. - **PP**: The contract declined slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is mixed. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is low. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August. Supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - **Styrene**: The contract rebounded slightly on Friday. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract declined 0.8%. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in commodity futures, with the main contract for shipping in Europe rising over 2% [1] - Iron ore, polysilicon, styrene, and industrial silicon have all seen price increases of over 1% [1]