Market Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $32.2 billion in June, reaching $3,317.4 billion, a rise of 0.98% compared to the end of May [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that many trade partners have changed their negotiation stance, with multiple trade agreements expected to be announced this week [1] - President Trump announced tariff threats against 14 countries, with rates ranging from 25% for Japan and South Korea to 40% for Laos and Myanmar, effective August 1 [1] - The European Union is seeking a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. to secure a 10% tariff rate before the August 1 deadline [1] - The European Central Bank's governing council urged macroprudential regulators to maintain the resilience of the banking system, citing increased financial stability risks in the Eurozone due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties [1] Economic Indicators - Moody's maintained Israel's long-term local and foreign currency rating at Baa1, noting that direct military conflict with Iran would further strain public finances [2] - The Eurozone investor confidence index reached 4.5 in July, the highest since February 2022, while retail sales in May grew by 1.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [2] - Germany's industrial output adjusted for May showed a year-on-year increase of 1.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [3] - The UK Halifax house price index remained flat month-on-month but increased by 2.5% year-on-year [4] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.94% to 44,406.36 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.79% to 6,229.98 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.92% to 20,412.52 points [5] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.10% to $3,346.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce [6] - U.S. oil futures increased by 1.37% to $67.92 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 1.84% to $69.56 per barrel [7] - U.S. Treasury yields saw increases across various maturities, with the 2-year yield up by 1.04 basis points to 3.890% and the 30-year yield up by 5.59 basis points to 4.914% [7] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.58% to 97.55, with various currency pairs showing mixed results against the dollar [7]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated that the risks to financial stability in the Eurozone have increased due to a sharp rise in global geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 1 - The ECB highlights that the current geopolitical landscape is contributing to heightened financial stability risks within the Eurozone [1]

Group 1 - The new shipbuilding market is experiencing a slowdown in 2025 after several years of strong performance, exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - According to Clarkson Research, global new ship orders have decreased by 54% year-on-year, with new ship prices dropping by 1% [2] - Chinese shipyards still hold a significant share of the global new ship orders, although their market share has declined from 70% in 2024 to 52% [2][3] Group 2 - In 2024, the global new ship order volume reached its highest level in 17 years, with 2,390 new ships ordered totaling 170 million deadweight tons [3] - The shipping market is facing cautious sentiment due to geopolitical uncertainties and tightening shipyard capacities, leading to postponed fleet replacement plans by shipowners [3][4] - Domestic shipyards maintain a positive outlook, with significant backlogs ensuring stable performance in the near term [4] Group 3 - There is a clear demand for fleet renewal and the development of new ship types driven by low-carbon policies and the need for cleaner energy vessels [4][5] - The emphasis on deep-sea development and resource utilization is expected to create demand for new ship types, including traditional marine engineering vessels [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses how geopolitical uncertainty and tariff policies have led to increased defensive investments by governments and companies, unexpectedly supporting the stock market [2][3] - The European Union has allowed member states to increase defense spending, with Germany planning to raise military expenditure to over 1% of GDP and invest an additional €500 billion (approximately $588 billion) in infrastructure [2] - The Stoxx Aerospace and Defense Index surged 54% in the first half of the year, marking a historic performance with a 74% increase in USD terms [2] Group 2 - There are three potential scenarios regarding the impact of geopolitical and tariff uncertainties on the economy: 1. The market may have already priced in the uncertainties, with a belief that Trump will not reimpose severe tariffs [3] 2. The uncertainties may primarily affect the value of the dollar, as foreign investors show decreased interest in U.S. assets, leading to the worst dollar performance since the Nixon administration [5] 3. The uncertainties could eventually harm the economy as CEOs delay critical decisions, which may suppress corporate investment [6][8] Group 3 - The article highlights a divide between bullish and bearish perspectives, with bulls focusing on current economic conditions and strong corporate investments, while bears emphasize the potential negative impacts of uncertainty on consumer and business sentiment [8] - Concerns are raised about inflationary pressures and growth slowdowns due to tariffs, with some analysts suggesting that now may be an appropriate time to cash out given the high valuations in the stock market [8]

Group 1 - The international gold price rebounded on June 30, closing above $3,300 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar [1] - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 rose by $28.9 to $3,315 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - Despite a rise in US stock indices, the US dollar index fell by 0.54% to 96.875, providing additional upward momentum for gold [2] Group 2 - Gold prices reached a one-month low of $3,250.5 during early electronic trading, indicating volatility in the market [2] - The overall performance of gold in June showed a slight increase of 0.06% compared to the end of May, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed [2] - Analysts suggest that central bank gold purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and loose monetary policies will continue to support the upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Silver futures for September rose by 16.5 cents to $36.330 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.46% [3]

Group 1 - The report by Teneo indicates that approximately 78% of surveyed investors expect an improvement in the global economic situation in the second half of the year, while CFOs are more cautious due to challenges such as artificial intelligence, tariffs, and geopolitical issues [1] - Over half of CFOs and nearly 40% of investors view market volatility as a major obstacle to mergers and acquisitions, with other significant barriers including geopolitical uncertainty, high financing costs, and a lack of quality acquisition targets [1] - 71% of CFOs are actively adjusting their M&A strategies, with disruptive technologies, particularly AI, identified by 42% of respondents as a key catalyst for M&A activity [1] Group 2 - CFOs are implementing several key initiatives to adapt to the new economic landscape, including reshaping supply chains, adjusting capital expenditures, optimizing sales, general and administrative expenses, and lowering profit expectations [2] - The operational environment is significantly influenced by global trade changes, tariff adjustments, market fluctuations, and regulatory and political uncertainties, leading CFOs to adopt long-term strategic adjustments in core areas such as recruitment and R&D investment [2] - Both CFOs and institutional investors maintain a cautiously optimistic view on bond market financing capabilities and current debt levels, suggesting that the variable environment presents strategic opportunities for forward-looking market participants [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, upcoming U.S. inflation data, and the impact of tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration [1][3][4] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Spot gold is currently trading around $3,323.28 per ounce, showing slight declines in early Asian trading [1] - On Thursday, spot gold closed at $3,327.60 per ounce, with a minor drop of approximately 0.13% [3] - The recent easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a price decline in recent trading sessions [3][4] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [3][4] - Tariff policies may lead to higher inflation expectations, potentially delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could exert downward pressure on gold prices [3][4] - Despite the pressures, there is a prevailing expectation that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September, with a total of 50 basis points expected by the end of the year, which could support gold prices in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming PCE data will be a critical driver for gold prices; lower-than-expected inflation could increase the likelihood of rate cuts, supporting gold, while higher-than-expected inflation may lead to further delays in rate cuts, putting pressure on gold [4] - Long-term factors such as a low-interest-rate environment, geopolitical uncertainties, and potential dollar weakness provide structural support for gold [4] - The speculative interest in platinum and palladium may divert funds away from the gold market, necessitating close monitoring of capital flows within the precious metals sector [4]

金十数据6月23日讯，美元今日升至近一个月来的最高水平，原因是美国对伊朗的打击刺激了对这种避 险货币的需求，同时突显出油价攀升带来的风险。当前，投资者担心油价上涨可能加剧通胀，并阻止美 联储降息。日内，美元兑日元USD/JPY亦一度上涨1%，此前有报道称以色列对伊朗一处关键核设施发 动了新一轮攻击。三菱日联高级外汇策略师Lee Hardman在一份研究报告中写道："地缘政治不确定性的 上升，以及引发另一场能源价格冲击的风险，在短期内为美元提供了更多支撑，同时美联储不愿再次降 息。" 机构：美元在中东局势升级的刺激下飙升 美元/日元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The French private sector activity further contracted in June, with both manufacturing and services weakening due to multiple factors including inventory surplus and rising uncertainties [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI and composite PMI (including services and manufacturing) both fell below expectations in June [1] - Manufacturing is impacted by customer inventory surplus, challenging market conditions, and order delays [1] - New orders have declined for the 13th consecutive month, with factory orders experiencing the largest drop since February [1] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, such as tariff uncertainties and the conflict between Israel and Iran, have also affected business activity [1] - Economic outlook is described as gloomy due to weakened domestic demand for goods and declining new orders [1] - The escalation of the Middle East situation further exacerbates uncertainties surrounding global trade and competition [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rebounded on June 20, 2023, with a rise of $18.5 or 0.19%, closing at $9,633.5 per ton, despite ongoing tariff uncertainties [1][2] - The three-month copper contract experienced a cumulative decline of $11.5 or 0.12% for the week [1] - LME copper inventory decreased to 99,200 tons, marking a reduction of over 60% since mid-February, reaching the lowest level since August 2023 [3] Group 2 - Three-month aluminum prices increased by $28 or 1.11%, closing at $2,549.5 per ton [2] - Global primary aluminum production in May was reported at 6.245 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [3]