油价三连跌。 据国家发展改革委 12 月 22 日消息，近期国际市场油价波动运行，根据 12 月 22 日的前 10 个工作日平均价格与上次调价前 10 个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制， 自 12 月 22 日 24 时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低 170 元和 165 元。 记者注意到，成品油零售限价实现了"三连跌"，这也是本年度最后一次调价。从全国平均价 格来看，92号汽油每升下调约0.13元，95号汽油每升下调约0.14元，0号柴油每升下调约 0.14元。用92号汽油加满50升油箱将少花约6.5元。 供应过剩前景施压国际油价 本轮调价成品油调价窗口周期内，国际原油价格以下跌为主。据卓创资讯分析师许磊介绍， 因俄乌冲突谈判推进，使市场强化对供应过剩前景的担忧，抵消了南美紧张局势可能造成的 供应面风险，美国原油价格一度跌至2021年2月以来最低水平。尽管国内调价窗口末期原油 连续三日小幅上涨，但是仍未能逆转本轮跌势，从而使得本轮原油变化率持续负值范围内运 行，当前成品油零售调价窗口处于下调预期。 与此同时，地缘局势风险溢价正不断消退。金联创成品油高级分析师王延婷表示，本 ...

徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 蔡劭立 ( 0755-23887993 * caishaoli@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 '()*+,|-./0+ 2025-12-21 !"#$%&'()'(*+,-. !"#$ !"#$ 高聪 ( 021-60828524 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 %&'()*&+, -./01201121289 3 !"#$ 本周美债长端利率延续上行、曲线明显陡化，10年期美债收益率走高至4.16%。短端受 宽松与流动性改善支撑相对稳健，但长端在供给压力、经济韧性及风险溢价抬升下波 动加大。中国连续减持美债，这体现出对美元资产内部结构进行再配置、由美债向黄 金及其他资产转移的结构性调整，而非对美债市场的集中抛售或系统性撤离，美债短 期韧性犹存，中长期仍受高债务约束。 %&'( ■ !"#$ 美债利率回顾。截止 12 月 19 日，10 年期美债收益率两周上升 2bp ， 10 年期美债收益率 ...

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 979.88 CNY per gram, with a slight decline of 0.01%, and have experienced a high of 988.80 CNY and a low of 975.14 CNY [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures indicates a sideways movement, suggesting a period of consolidation after previous upward trends [4] Group 2 - The U.S. has imposed sanctions on 29 oil tankers and their management companies, targeting a "shadow fleet" involved in transporting Iranian oil and oil products, which reportedly facilitated the movement of hundreds of millions of dollars in oil [3] - U.S. officials are engaging in discussions with representatives from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey regarding the second phase of a ceasefire in Gaza, indicating a collaborative effort to address delays from both Israel and Hamas [3] - U.S. Navy F-18 fighter jets have been observed operating in the Caribbean, with some flights coming close to Venezuela's capital, Caracas, highlighting ongoing military activities in the region [3]

渣打银行（Standard Chartered）高级投资策略师拉贾特·巴塔查里亚（Rajat Bhattacharya）在2026年展望 报告中指出，在地缘政治不确定性及全球财政宽松担忧的推动下，黄金开启了创纪录的上涨行情，今年 涨幅超50%，过去三年累计涨幅更是超过150%， 今年是黄金连续第二年跑赢股票和债券，且已连续10 年跑赢债券，他表示2026年黄金将再次跑赢全球股票和债券。 每日经济新闻 12月17日，受美疲软的经济数据催化，降息预期升温，金价持续走强，白银价格再创历史新高，截至A 股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4357美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.76%，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨2.27%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨2.97%。 今日盘面，大宗期货大面积上涨，碳酸锂涨超7%，沪银涨超5%，沪金涨0.8%，铜涨超1%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to remain at high levels, but with significant volatility due to upcoming key events such as US DPI, PCE, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in a loose cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, and the credit risk of the US dollar is rising. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to move upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On December 16, 2025, compared with December 15, the prices of London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, AU2602, AG2602, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) all declined, with decreases of - 1.3%, - 0.4%, - 1.5%, - 0.9%, - 1.2%, - 0.9%, - 1.2%, and - 1.0% respectively [5]. - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by - 8.2%, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by - 633.3% [5]. 3.2 Position Data - From December 12 to December 15, 2025, the positions of gold ETF - SPDR, silver ETF - SLV, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, non - commercial net long positions, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial net long positions all decreased to varying degrees [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - From December 12 to December 16, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE silver inventory increased by 3.84%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.26% [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - From December 12 to December 16, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate decreased by - 0.08%, the US dollar index decreased by - 0.12%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by - 0.28%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by - 0.24%, the VIX increased by 4.83%, the S&P 500 decreased by - 0.16%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by - 1.48% [5]. 3.5 Market Review - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.6% to 971.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.3% to 14,666 yuan/kilogram [5]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - US economic data, such as the cooling of the employment market and the decline in retail sales, have increased the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, weakened the US dollar index, and boosted precious metal prices [6]. - In the short term, the precious metal market will be affected by key events, and prices are expected to fluctuate sharply [6]. 3.7 Medium - and Long - Term Views - In the long - term, due to the Fed's loose cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and the increase in US dollar credit risk, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move upward [6].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好！ 先来看重要市场行情，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.12%，报4333.30美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货 收涨3.42%，报64.13美元/盎司。 此外，特朗普还就对乌安全保障作简要说明，他表示，美国正在该问题上与欧洲合作。欧洲将在其中发 挥重要作用。特朗普表示，他们正在努力制定安全保障措施。 特朗普还表示，他与俄罗斯总统普京进行了多次对话，还得到了欧洲领导人的巨大支持，各方均希望结 束这场冲突。特朗普表示，必须让乌克兰和俄罗斯达成一致，他认为目前进展顺利，谈话也很有效。 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示，截至11月25日当周，COMEX黄金期货投机客将净多头 头寸增加11291份合约，至107976份合约；COMEX白银投机客将净多头头寸减少806份合约，至20127 份合约。 消息面上，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率 为75.6%；到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为43.5%，维持利率不变的概率为47.5%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为9. ...

金价重新站上4300美元/盎司 12月15日，国际金价延续强势表现，伦敦现货黄金站上4300美元/盎司上方。分析人士认为，在美联储降息、地缘政治不确定性延续以及央行持续购金等 因素支撑下，黄金的配置价值凸显。 多因素支撑金价上涨 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间12月15日21:43，伦敦金现货价格上涨0.93%，报4339.95美元/盎司。 国际投行近日纷纷重申对金价的上涨预期。高盛最新研报认为，鉴于当前黄金头寸处于低位以及投资者多元化配置的潜力，预测其2026年末将达到4900美 元/盎司；瑞银维持金价2026年6月目标价4500美元/盎司的判断；美银则将黄金2026年目标价调至5000美元/盎司。 从数据来看，投资者持续配置黄金ETF，全球黄金ETF的资金流入量有望创下有史以来最强劲的年度表现。世界黄金协会最新数据显示，全球实物支持的 黄金ETF连续第六个月获得资金流入，11月新增52亿美元。尽管资金流入量较前几个月有所减少，但仍远高于2024年月均29.2亿美元的水平。截至11月 末，黄金ETF总规模达到5300亿美元，当月增长5.4%。 美国本周将迎来"超级数据周"，美国11月非农就业报告和CPI数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a buildup of momentum as it approaches year-end, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, which remains the strongest support for the bull market in precious metals [3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - Last week, gold and silver reached new highs, with gold increasing over 2% and silver rising more than 6% on a weekly basis [2][10]. - After reaching these highs, both metals experienced a pullback due to a rebound in the US dollar, as investors took profits at elevated levels [2][10]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook remains strong, with gold maintaining its position near historical highs, indicating a healthy technical correction [5][12]. - Silver's momentum is even stronger than gold, having set new highs for five consecutive days, suggesting that any pullback is a natural pause after rapid gains [5][12]. Group 3: Key Support Factors - Confirmation of the monetary policy path is crucial; any indications of further rate cuts or sustained low rates in 2025 will directly benefit gold [6][12]. - Signs of weakening economic data, particularly in employment and consumption, could enhance expectations for quicker and deeper rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, significantly boosting the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [6][12]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Industrial Demand - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties will continue to provide a solid foundation for safe-haven buying of gold [7][13]. - Silver benefits from its dual attributes, with strong industrial demand (in green energy, photovoltaics, and electronics) providing additional upward potential [7][13]. Group 5: Upcoming Economic Indicators - The upcoming US November non-farm payroll report and CPI inflation data will be critical catalysts for determining the market direction before year-end [7][13]. - A scenario of slowing employment combined with cooling inflation would be most favorable for gold and silver, potentially leading to a significant breakout above previous highs [7][13][15]. - Conversely, if employment remains strong and inflation persists, it may lead to skepticism about the Federal Reserve's easing intentions, resulting in a rebound of the dollar and upward pressure on interest rates, which could create selling pressure on precious metals [15].

今日周五(12月12日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于63.69一线上方，今日开盘于63.51美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报63.69美元/盎司，上涨0.24%，最高触及63.93美元/盎司，最低下探62.89美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在会议后的新闻发布会上表示，美国劳动力市场面临显着的下行风险，中央 银行不希望其政策抑制就业创造。从美联储公布的最新利率路径来看，决策层预计到2026年底的联邦基 金利率将降至3.4%，意味着未来一年仅有一次降息。 但根据CME FedWatch数据，市场认为未来一年至少两次降息的概率高达58%，明显偏向更宽松的方 向。 除此之外，持续的地缘政治不确定性，尤其是在俄罗斯与乌克兰和平协议谈判停滞的背景下，限制了银 价的下行空间，并有利于看涨交易者。 此外，交易者现在期待来自有影响力的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员的讲话，以获得新的推动 力。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 如果涨势能延续，银价有望先冲到65美元/盎司，接下来还可能挑战69美元/盎司的关口——这个价位是 2025年10月银价下跌波段的261.8% ...

So that's your scorecard for this Thursday as we get up and running for trade. Plenty of moving parts in these markets. Obviously we've also had some macro data out this morning.So let's get to Kevin Green who joins me now for a snapshot of what has been going on here and obviously we got some initial jobless claims as well. 236,000 the trade deficit coming in at 52.8% billion as well. So that trade gap narrowing.What's the sort of major takeaway from what we're seeing today out there. because I also heard ...