投资分析本质上是一门应对变化的技术，而非预测未来的技术。在昂首平台所涉及的投资领域中，无论运用基本面还是技术面 工具，投资分析的基点都建立在事件自身的演变上，通过解析事件可能性来映射未来变化。 在投资分析体系里，技术分析占据着极其重要的位置。昂首平台也深知技术分析对于投资者的意义。一般来说，技术分析是研 究市场价格变化或波动的学问。我们都知道，价格并不总是反映价值，价格与价值之间存在差距是常态，甚至可能相距甚远。 这一方面是因为价值概念内涵模糊，难以量化；另一方面，交易者群体的非理性行为，尽管个体自认为理性，却常导致价格脱 离价值。而这种价格的"过与不及"，正是技术分析者的用武之地。 技术分析能较好地测量价格与价值之间的背离程度，并通过自身的方式刻画这种背离关系。从这个意义上讲，它是一种有效的 测量工具。在昂首平台上，投资者可以借助技术分析，更精准地把握市场动态，更好地应对价格与价值的背离情况，从而做出 更合理的投资决策。 总之，在昂首平台的投资活动中，理解投资分析的本质以及技术分析的重要性，能帮助投资者在复杂多变的市场中找到方向， 实现更好的投资收益。 ...

關鍵位爭持：瑞聲面臨41.5元阻力，突破還是回落？ 瑞聲科技(02018)的股價近期展現出令人矚目的動能，在週二錄得超過5%的單日升幅後，目前徘徊於39.66元水平，成交額3.5億。這波強勢拉升，究竟是新一 輪上升趨勢的開端，還是僅僅是觸及阻力前的技術性反彈？ 從技術圖表進行剖析，當前股價已成功站上10天線(約37.55元)及30天線(約39元)，顯示短期動能轉強。然而，上方41.5元的第一阻力位，以及42.6元的第二 阻力位，與60天線(約41.50元)位置接近，預料將構成關鍵的技術性賣壓區。下方的支持區域則相對清晰，首個支持位在37.9元，而更為堅實的支持位於37.2 元水平。目前，反映動能的MACD信號已轉為「買入」，但值得警惕的是，隨機震盪指標已進入「超買狀態，賣出」的區域，這種背馳現象往往預示短期可 能出現整理或回調。 | | | 鑒於正股波動性加劇，衍生工具市場的活躍度亦隨之提升。對於希望順勢捕捉潛在升浪的投資者，可以關注槓桿效應顯著的認購證。例如，中銀認購證 (29109) 提供約4.11倍槓桿，其最大的特點是市場上溢價最低的產品之一，這意味著投資者為時間價值支付的成本相對較小，若正股能延續升勢 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a local rebound, but true trend speculators are cautious about entering positions at this time due to the pressure from the 50-day moving average [1] - The next main theme in the market is still uncertain, although some clues have emerged [2] - There are two potential scenarios for the market: one is a gradual consolidation followed by an upward breakout, which would require a significant increase in trading volume to confirm; the other is a continued pullback approaching or breaking previous lows, potentially forming a double bottom [3] Group 2 - Technical indicators are statistical characteristics that provide objective reference points but cannot replace systematic construction and analysis; many misunderstand technical analysis as merely chart reading [3] - Different technical analysis methods have their strengths, such as volume-price patterns excelling in emotional and behavioral logic reasoning, while the RSI indicator is better at quantifying momentum [4] - A robust trading system requires a comprehensive approach, selecting the best methods for each aspect and understanding the fundamental principles behind them [4]

Market Overview - The market is betting on an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, leading to a decline in the dollar to a one-week low [1] - Expectations for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are limiting safe-haven demand, while several Federal Reserve officials have released dovish signals, compounded by weak economic data, resulting in a bullish fundamental outlook for gold with limited pullback potential [1] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with gold prices trading above the middle band; the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover in progress, while the RSI indicator is in an overbought pullback state, indicating a need to be cautious of potential pullback in gold prices [2] - On the 4-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands are also narrowing, with gold prices above the middle band; the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, and the RSI indicator is in a state of oversold rebound, indicating a clear demand for bullish reversal, with support at 4100 and resistance at 4200 to be monitored [2] - On the 1-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with gold prices near the middle band; the MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, and the RSI is in an overbought pullback state, suggesting strong upward momentum but caution for potential pullback [2] Future Gold Trading Strategy - For bullish positions: Aggressive traders should rely on the support level of 4000 USD/oz, entering long positions around 4025-4035 USD/oz after stabilization; conservative traders should depend on the support level of 3900 USD/oz, entering long positions around 3925-3935 USD/oz [4] - For bearish positions: Aggressive traders should rely on the resistance level of 4250 USD/oz, entering short positions around 4240-4230 USD/oz after facing resistance; conservative traders should depend on the resistance level of 4380 USD/oz, entering short positions around 4375-4365 USD/oz [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) showed a significant increase, closing at 25,890.4 points, recovering from previous declines [1][2] - The trading volume decreased compared to the previous day, indicating a lack of strong momentum despite the price increase [1] - Technical indicators suggest a neutral market sentiment, with mixed signals from various indicators [1] Group 2: Alibaba (09988.HK) - Alibaba's stock price rose to 157.8 HKD, nearing the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 159.6 HKD [9] - Investors in the warrant market are beginning to clear their bullish positions, indicating profit-taking behavior [9] - The stock has shown significant volatility, with a price fluctuation of approximately 8.6% over the past five trading days [10] Group 3: Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) - Xiaomi's stock price has rebounded to around 40.34 HKD after stabilizing at a low of 36.62 HKD [17] - Technical signals indicate a slight bullish sentiment, with 9 buy signals compared to 5 sell signals [17] - The resistance level is identified at 43.4 HKD, while support is at approximately 38.2 HKD [17] Group 4: JD.com (09618.HK) - JD.com's stock closed at 112.4 HKD, with a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous day [20] - The technical outlook is slightly positive, with 9 buy signals and 5 sell signals [20] - The resistance level is at 118.8 HKD, with potential for further gains if this level is surpassed [20] Group 5: AIA Group (01299.HK) - AIA's stock price is currently at 79.25 HKD, stabilizing near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [27] - The market sentiment remains neutral, with buy and sell signals being nearly equal [27] - The resistance level is at 82.5 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to further gains [27] Group 6: CanSino Biologics (09926.HK) - CanSino's stock price closed at 116 HKD, above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a positive signal [33] - The stock has shown increased trading volume, suggesting a strong upward movement [33] - Technical signals are neutral, with equal buy and sell signals, but potential resistance is at 121.6 HKD [33]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate remains stable with slight fluctuations, influenced by market risk appetite and central bank policies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On November 24, the USD/CHF opened at 0.8081 and closed at 0.8082, with a trading range of 0.8075 to 0.8090 [1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 2.69% on the same day, increasing market risk appetite and suppressing the safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc [1] - As of November 25, the USD/CHF rate showed a slight increase to 0.8083, reflecting mixed market factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 10-year government bond yields for the US and Switzerland are 4.035% and 1.25% respectively, providing a yield differential that supports the USD [1] - Switzerland's trade surplus expanded to 3.2 billion CHF in October, indicating economic resilience that offers implicit support for the Swiss Franc [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF is expected to trade within a range of 0.8079 to 0.8087, with support at 0.8075 and resistance at 0.8090 [2] - Current technical indicators show a neutral stance, with RSI at 47 and MACD near the zero line, indicating balanced buying and selling momentum [2] - A break below 0.8075 could lead to a test of the 0.8070 support level, while a move above 0.8090 may target 0.8095 to 0.8100 [2]

小米股價近期經歷深度調整後，在38.4元水平初現企穩跡象，反彈0.84%雖不算強勁，卻可能預示著技術修復的開始。令人矚目的是，該股五日振幅高達 16.2%，技術指標層面呈現出罕見的強烈看漲信號。技術指標總結給出「強力買入」評級，信號強度達到13，是多日來少見的明確看漲格局。 RSI數值19已進入嚴重超賣區域，威廉指標顯示超賣狀態並發出買入信號，隨機震盪指標同樣給出買入信號，而變動率指標更明確指出「嚴重超跌，可能築 底」的技術特徵。儘管MACD與保力加通道仍維持賣出信號，但多個關鍵指標的一致性買入信號，是否足以讓您考慮在此位置進行左側布局？ 關鍵價位分析顯示，小米目前首要挑戰41.6元的初步阻力，突破後下一目標看向45.1元。下行保護方面，35.8元構成近期重要支撐，若意外失守，下一防線 位於33元整數關卡。當前股價與移動平均線的關係透露出深度調整格局，股價明顯低於MA10的41.22元、MA30的44.43元及MA60的49.76元，這種大幅偏離 均線系統的狀態，從歷史經驗來看，往往蘊含著較大的技術修復空間。 從窩輪市場的近期表現觀察，熊證產品在下跌過程中展現了良好的收益表現。回顧近期數據，法興熊證64595 ...

Core Points - The euro has shown a slight increase against the dollar, trading around 1.1520 after hitting a two-week low of 1.1490 [1] - The dollar index has retreated from multi-week highs, influenced by dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, leading to expectations of further easing in monetary policy by the Fed [2] - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a divergence in economic performance between the US and the Eurozone, with positive indicators in the US contrasting with weaker manufacturing activity in the Eurozone [3] - Market focus has shifted to upcoming economic data and policy signals from the Eurozone, particularly the German IFO Business Climate Index and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde [4] - Technical analysis suggests the euro/dollar pair is in a short-term downtrend, facing resistance around 1.1550 and support at the psychological level of 1.1500 [6]

Core Points - The CSI A500 Index experienced a decline of 4.27% this week, closing at 5325.99 points as of November 21 [6] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 6047.97 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 13.94% compared to the previous week [6] - All 40 CSI A500 funds saw a decline, with losses exceeding 3%, indicating a broad market downturn [6] Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index closed at 5325.99 points, down 4.27% for the week [2][6] - The total trading volume for the week was 30239.84 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 6047.97 billion yuan [2][6] Top Performers - The top gainers for the week included: - Aerospace Development (000547.SZ) with a gain of 31.77% - BlueFocus Communication Group (300058.SZ) with a gain of 20.18% - Tongcheng New Materials (603650.SH) with a gain of 14.75% [4] Bottom Performers - The top losers for the week included: - Defang Nano (300769.SZ) with a loss of 19.27% - New Zhongbang (300037.SZ) with a loss of 17.98% - Goodwe (688390.SH) with a loss of 17.59% [4] Fund Performance - The total scale of CSI A500 funds has fallen below 200 billion yuan, currently at 1920.64 billion yuan [6] - The largest funds by scale include: - Huatai-PB A500 ETF with 256.97 billion yuan - E Fund A500 ETF with 226.45 billion yuan - Guotai Fund's CSI A500 ETF with 212.14 billion yuan [6] Market Analysis - According to Huaxin Securities, the A-share market is currently in a tug-of-war around the 4000-point mark, influenced by external factors such as the rising US dollar index and internal factors like profit-taking in technology stocks [7] - The report indicates that while there are signals for a short-term adjustment, the bull market is still in its mid-stage, awaiting further capital inflows from residents, public funds, and foreign investments [7]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high of 6,920.34 in late October but subsequently fell to a low of 6,574.32, marking a drop of 346.02 (5%) [1] - The index's decline has surpassed its previous 4-week low of 6,631.44 from early October [1] Technical Analysis - The Four-Week Rule suggests covering short positions and buying long when prices exceed the highs of the previous four weeks [2] - Conversely, it advises liquidating long positions and selling short when prices fall below the lows of the previous four weeks [3] - Despite the rise of algorithm-driven trading, the Four-Week Rule remains relevant due to its focus on volatility and momentum [4] Interest Rate Outlook - Continued selling of stocks may occur if the US Federal Open Market Committee decides to hold off on another interest rate cut in December [5] - The December 30-day Fed funds futures contract indicates a rate of 3.825%, while the January contract suggests a rate of 3.764%, both within the current range of 3.75% to 4.0% [5]