Report Overview - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification Number: F3083989, Investment Consulting Number: Z0018635 [3] Key Data Points New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance reached 422.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 379.8 billion yuan [4] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 48.0% [4] - In June as of June 29, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 479.1 billion yuan [4] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 57.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 29.9 billion yuan [7] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 55.7% [8] - In June as of June 29, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 94.4 billion yuan [4] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 560.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 436.1 billion yuan [11] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 49.2% [13] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the treasury bond net financing scale was 111 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 24.1 billion yuan [16] - As of June 29, the treasury bond net financing progress was 50.3% [17] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 671.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 412.1 billion yuan [20] - As of June 29, the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance was 49.8% [21]

Group 1 - The issuance of government bonds accelerated in May, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan issued, bringing the net financing scale to 6.4 trillion yuan by the end of May, achieving a progress rate of 46.1% [5] - The cumulative issuance progress for various types of bonds includes: general government bonds at 39.4%, special government bonds at 42.1%, new special bonds at 37.1%, special refinancing bonds at 81.5%, and new general bonds at 43.9% [5] Group 2 - The consumption of old-for-new products accelerated in May, driven by pre-promotional policies for the 618 shopping festival, with total sales reaching 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories [7] - The estimated usage of funds for the "old-for-new" program by the end of May is between 143.9 billion to 163.2 billion yuan, nearing the allocated scale for the program [7] Group 3 - China's export rebound in May may be temporary, as mid-May port import data showed a recovery linked to increased export container bookings due to improved China-US trade relations, but the sustainability of this rebound is limited [10] - Container ship departures from China to the US decreased by 22.6% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year in May, indicating potential challenges ahead [10] Group 4 - South Korea experienced a negative export growth of 1.3% in May, marking the first decline in four months, with decreases noted across exports to ASEAN, the US, China, and Japan [12] - Despite the overall decline, the Bank of Korea reported a slight increase of 1% in daily average exports when accounting for working days in May, suggesting some resilience in the export sector [12]

Core Insights - The overall fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first four months of 2025 show a mixed trend, with total public budget revenue at 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while total expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [1][4] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for the first four months was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 7.7% to 15,060 billion yuan [2] - Central government budget revenue was 33,928 billion yuan, a decline of 3.8%, while local government revenue rose by 2.2% to 46,688 billion yuan [2] - The completion rate of public fiscal revenue for the first four months was 36.7%, higher than the same period in 2024 and in line with the five-year average [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax and consumption tax both grew by 1.8%, while corporate income tax fell by 3.1% and personal income tax rose by 7.4% [2][3] - Real estate-related taxes showed mixed results, with deed tax down 15.7% and property tax up 11.2% [2][3] Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the first four months was 93,581 billion yuan, with central government expenditure at 12,282 billion yuan (up 9%) and local government expenditure at 81,299 billion yuan (up 3.9%) [4] - Key expenditure areas included social security and employment (up 8.5%), education (up 7.4%), and health (up 3.9%), while spending on urban and rural communities and agriculture showed a decline [4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal deficit target for the year is set at around 4%, allowing for flexibility in future policy adjustments [3] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds is expected to support infrastructure spending, with a significant amount of local special bonds pending issuance [5]

Revenue Insights - In April, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 20,427 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.89%[1] - From January to April, public fiscal revenue declined by 0.4% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed[1] - Tax revenue showed signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9% in April, while cumulative tax revenue decreased by 2.1%[1] Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in April was CNY 20,766 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%[2] - Cumulative expenditure from January to April grew by 4.6%, slightly above the annual budget target of 4%[2] - By the end of April, 31.5% of the annual expenditure target had been completed, surpassing the progress of the same period from 2020 to 2024[2] Sectoral Analysis - Social security and employment expenditures rose by 9.6%, while health expenditures increased by 10% in April[2] - Infrastructure spending accelerated, with urban and rural community affairs and transportation expenditures growing by 6.8% and 10.6%, respectively[2] - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 8% in April, driven by a recovery in land sales[3] Debt and Funding - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, supporting broad fiscal expenditure, with CNY 1.19 trillion in new special bonds issued from January to April[3] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds began in April, providing strong support for government fund expenditures[3] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns and policy execution falling short of expectations[4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in social financing and M2 growth in April, indicating a stable and moderately loose monetary policy environment, with expectations for continued steady growth in financial totals despite short-term uncertainties in effective credit demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - In April, the new social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with the total social financing stock reaching 424 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2][3]. - The M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, which is 1 percentage point higher than the end of the previous month and 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [5][6]. Group 2: Government Debt and Credit Support - The acceleration of government bond issuance has been a major driver of social financing, with net financing from government bonds exceeding 500 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, significantly higher than the previous year [3][4]. - The issuance of corporate bonds has also increased, with the total corporate bond balance reaching 32.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][4]. Group 3: Loan Growth and Structure - In April, the increase in RMB loans was approximately 280 billion yuan, with the total RMB loan balance reaching 265.70 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, which remains significantly above nominal economic growth [3][4]. - The growth rate of inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector was 11.9% and 8.5% respectively, both exceeding the overall loan growth rate [4]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Future Outlook - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was 3.2%, down about 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points from the same period last year [4]. - Market analysts expect that despite short-term uncertainties in effective credit demand, the implementation of a series of financial policies will positively impact the recovery of effective demand in the real economy, leading to stable growth in financial totals in the near future [4][6].

2025年4月24日，央行发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年4月25日（周五），将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价 位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 数据显示，当月共有1000亿元MLF到期，次日操作落地后将实现5000亿元的中长期流动性净投放。操作落地后，MLF余额将为46570亿元。这也 是MLF连续两个月加量续作，而且加量幅度较上月的630亿元显著放大，表明央行加大了通过MLF向市场注入中期流动性的力度。 MLF继续加量续作或与政府债发行提速有关。按照财政部有关安排，2025年超长期特别国债于4月24日首次发行，其中20年期500亿元，中标利率 为1.98%；30年期710亿元，中标利率为1.88%。值得注意的是，今年超长期特别国债集中在4月至10月发行，较去年集中在5月至11月发行，整体 发行节奏提前了约一个月。 | 目份 | 即限(年) | 花标目脚 | 首发/短治 | 付息 Fri | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4月 | 20 | 4月24日 | 首发 | 按半年付息 | | | 30 | 4月24日 | 首发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In March, the growth of general fiscal revenue remained weak, while fiscal expenditure increased significantly. In the context of tariff policy shocks and limited urban investment financing, it is expected that fiscal policy will further strengthen in the future, including accelerating the issuance of government bonds within the budget and potentially expanding fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Revenue Side - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In March 2025, the monthly general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value -1.6%), with tax revenue down 2.2% year-on-year (previous value -3.9%) and non-tax revenue up 5.9% year-on-year (previous value 11.0%). Central general public budget revenue decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, while local general public budget revenue increased by 2.79% [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue**: In March, tax revenue was down 2.2% year-on-year. Among the four major taxes, domestic VAT increased by 4.9% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 1.1% year-on-year), domestic consumption tax increased by 9.6% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 0.3% year-on-year), corporate income tax increased by 16.0% year-on-year (1 - 2 months -10.4% year-on-year), and personal income tax dropped by 58.5% year-on-year. Export tax rebates increased by 8.3% year-on-year, tariffs decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, real estate-related taxes decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 63.2% year-on-year [2][13]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In March, government fund revenue decreased by 11.7% year-on-year (1 - 2 months -10.7% year-on-year), mainly due to weak land transfer revenue. From January to March, government fund revenue decreased by 11% year-on-year. Although high-frequency land transaction data improved at the beginning of the year, the sustainability is expected to be limited [3][15]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure and Government Fund Expenditure**: In March, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.7% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 3.4% year-on-year), and government fund expenditure increased by 27.9% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 1.2% year-on-year). From January to March, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, and government fund expenditure increased by 11.1% year-on-year [3][17]. - **Fiscal Expenditure Structure**: In March, the growth rate of traditional infrastructure expenditure was low, and the increase was mainly concentrated in social and cultural education and debt interest payments. Infrastructure fiscal expenditure increased by 0.49% year-on-year, with significant differences among sub - items. Expenditure on education, social security and employment, and debt interest payments had relatively high growth rates [4][17]. Fiscal Deficit As of March, the cumulative general fiscal deficit was 2.3 trillion yuan. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current cumulative general fiscal deficit rate is 1.6%, higher than in previous years and close to 2020, indicating increased fiscal efforts [4][25]. Future Outlook In the context of tariff policy shocks and limited urban investment financing, it is expected that fiscal policy will further strengthen. This includes accelerating the issuance of special treasury bonds and special bonds, and there is still room for further expansion of fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds. The subsequent Politburo meeting is an important observation window [5][30].

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the M1 monetary supply in the context of the Chinese economy Core Points and Arguments - M1 growth has shown significant volatility, with a decline from 3.3% in January to -3.3% by September 2024, before rebounding to approximately 1.2% in December 2024, indicating a potential new trend in M1 growth [1][2][3] - The fluctuations in M1 growth are attributed to two main factors: the Spring Festival effect and fiscal policy impacts, which include government spending and issuance [2][4] - The new calculation method for M1 includes additional components such as non-bank deposits and household demand deposits, which were not part of the old calculation, thus affecting the growth metrics [2][3][4] - The average growth rate of M1 from 2018 to the present is around 3-4%, significantly lower than the pre-2018 levels, which were driven by real estate and household purchases [5][10] - The contribution of fiscal policy to M1 growth has increased, reaching approximately 7-8 percentage points in 2024, while the impact of the financial system has been declining [10][12] - The relationship between government bond issuance and M1 growth indicates that M1 typically rises 2-4 months after significant bond issuance, reflecting the effective use of fiscal funds [13][14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The new M1 calculation method has led to a more pronounced decline in growth rates during the Spring Festival, with a drop of about 1 percentage point compared to the old method [4] - The financial system's contribution to M1 growth has been weakening, suggesting a shift in how monetary policy impacts M1 [10][12] - The anticipated fiscal measures, particularly the issuance of special local government bonds, are expected to play a crucial role in boosting M1 growth in 2025, although the scale of issuance may not match previous years [14][15]

数量工具先行，静待利率工具 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 去年末，在降息预期较强的情况下，国债收益率"无视"央行多次提醒大幅回落， 10 年国债一度跌破 1.6% 。 年初以来，为避免债券收益率过低对货币工具的制约，央行通过暂停国债购入、回笼流动性等操作，有意引导国内资金面处于紧平衡，推动国债收益率回 升。 2 月以来债券市场持续调整， 国债收益率曲线转向熊平，DR007利率大幅高于OMO利率， 1 年期及以内国债收益率重回 1.5% 左右， 10 年国债收益 率相比于此前低点回调超过 20BP ， 市场降息降准预期落空。 但事情正在发生变化。 3 月 21 日，央行公布《货币政策委员会一季度例会通稿》， 这是近年来时间最早的一季度例会 。其中对国债的表述从四季度的"充实完善货币政策工 具箱，开展国债买卖，关注长期收益率的变化"变为"从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化"，表明债券收益率过低对货币 工具的制约有所减弱，政策更加重视防范金融市场风险，避免债市大涨大跌，维护金融市场稳定。 3 月 24 日，央行预告在 25 日采用"固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标"方式投放 4500 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for M1 growth, suggesting a potential upward trend in the coming quarters [11][35]. Core Insights - M1 growth showed a rebound trend in Q4 2024, but experienced a decline again in early 2025 due to the Spring Festival effect. The report explores the factors driving M1 growth changes and whether a new upward trend has begun [11][35]. - The report identifies five key factors influencing M1 growth: fiscal policy, monetary policy, entity activity, financial system, and external factors. It highlights that fiscal policy has become the primary driver of M1 growth, especially in 2024 [20][35]. - The report emphasizes that the contribution of entity demand to M1 growth has weakened significantly since 2018, while fiscal policy's contribution has increased, reaching 7.3 percentage points in 2024 [35][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in M1 - M1 growth rebounded starting October 2024, reaching 1.2% in December, but slowed to 0.4% in January 2025. The government bond issuance accelerated from August 2024, contributing to M1's recovery [11][12][35]. - The new M1 calculation includes personal demand deposits, which smooths out the impact of seasonal factors like the Spring Festival [11][13][35]. 2. Factors Driving M1 Growth: Insights from the Five-Factor Model - The report notes that the average annual contribution of entity demand to M1 growth has dropped to 2.2 percentage points in 2024, compared to an average of 10 percentage points from 2018 to 2021 [20][35]. - The financial system's contribution to M1 growth has been negative in recent years, reflecting the drag from interbank fund circulation [35][41]. 3. Is M1 Entering an Upward Cycle? - Historical data shows that M1 growth has typically rebounded significantly during previous cycles, with increases of over 10 percentage points lasting more than a year [41][45]. - The report suggests that while fiscal policy may drive M1 growth, the current recovery in entity demand remains weak, and the central bank's monetary policy focus is on stabilizing bank interest margins rather than large-scale liquidity injections [45][49].