交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 行业推荐上，建议仍聚焦三条主线：1）科技创新主线，包括科技硬件（ 半导体、新能源汽车产业链等）、互联网科技（人工智能、云计算等领 域）。2）高股息主线：关注银行、公用事业和电信运营商。3）政策红 利主线：券商、保险等金融服务机构，以及港股优质消费龙头。 | | | | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 升跌% | | 恒指 | 23,108 | -2.08 | 13.25 | | 国指 | 8,386 | -2.02 | 15.04 | | 上 A | 3,537 | 0.17 | 0.67 | | 上 B | 261 | -0.46 | -2.47 | | 深 A | 2,092 | -0.20 | 2.19 | | 深 B | 1,192 | 0.17 | -1.73 | | 道指 | 42,140 | -0.64 | -0.95 | | 标普 500 | 5,887 | 0.72 | 0.08 | | 纳指 | 19,010 | 1.61 | -1.56 | | 英国富时100 | 8 ...

期货热点追踪 交易员直言美豆涨势心虚！市场在政策红利与基本面疲软间剧烈摇摆，未来美豆价格能否持续上涨？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the operating entities are vital for economic growth, with 6.063 million new entities established in Q1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1% for private enterprises and 4.3% for foreign-invested enterprises [1] - As of the end of March, there are 24.918 million registered "new economy" enterprises, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, indicating a positive trend in high-quality economic development despite uncertainties [1] - The need to further stimulate the vitality and internal motivation of operating entities is highlighted as essential for addressing complex challenges and promoting stable economic growth [1] Group 2 - Optimizing the business environment is identified as a foundational project to enhance the confidence of operating entities, with Shanghai focusing on this for eight consecutive years [2] - Various measures are being implemented to improve the business environment, including the establishment of service officers for enterprises in Guangdong to protect their legal rights [2] - The release of policy dividends is crucial for the robust development of operating entities, with tailored policies for different types of enterprises, such as loan interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises [2] Group 3 - Building a unified national market is deemed key to invigorating the vitality of operating entities, with the number of items in the market access negative list reduced from 151 in 2018 to 106 in the 2025 version [3] - The total number of registered operating entities in China is projected to reach 189 million by the end of November 2024, representing over a 70% increase since 2018 [3] - Efforts are being made to enhance market access and regulatory frameworks to support new business models and promote technological innovation [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in China's exports despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, showcasing the resilience and competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing in the global market [1][17]. Trade Performance - In Q1, mechanical and electrical products accounted for 53% of China's export value, with 72,000 new energy vehicles sold primarily to Mexico and the UAE [3]. - Urea fertilizer sales in Henan surged by 947.8% quarter-on-quarter, with costs dropping by 700 yuan per ton, disrupting international pricing [3]. Manufacturing Efficiency - China's supply chain efficiency is emphasized, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where all components can be sourced within a 50-kilometer radius, significantly outperforming traditional manufacturing hubs like Detroit [5]. - The global shipbuilding industry is dominated by China, holding 70% of new ship orders, with some companies like Hudong-Zhonghua having orders extending to 2030 [5]. Technological Advancements - The export of industrial robots increased by 81.9%, with Polish factories replacing German equipment with "Chinese smart manufacturing" [6]. - Innovative products, such as AI-integrated cleaning robots and advanced cameras, are gaining popularity in international markets, indicating a shift in consumer perception towards Chinese goods [6]. E-commerce Growth - Cross-border e-commerce is thriving, with platforms like Dunhuang.com utilizing smart systems to circumvent U.S. tariffs by splitting orders into smaller, tax-exempt packages [8]. - The volume of cross-border e-commerce at Hangzhou Xiaoshan Airport grew by 30%, driven by high demand for mobile accessories and clothing [8]. Policy Support - The Chinese government has implemented reforms, such as batch inspection reforms by Lanzhou Customs, which have expedited the export process and reduced clearance times by 30% [12]. - The China-Europe Railway Express saw a 15% increase in trips this year, with freight costs decreasing by 30%, facilitating trade from various regions in China to Europe [12]. Competitive Response - In response to U.S. tariffs, companies are innovating, such as a shoe factory in Quanzhou developing its own "air suspension technology" to compete with major brands like Nike [15]. - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated actions to improve product quality and reduce counterfeit goods, with significant enforcement against trademark infringements [15].

Group 1 - The central bank's recent policy package aims to release liquidity, lower financing costs, and direct credit resources towards key sectors to promote high-quality economic development [1][2] - The policy includes a comprehensive 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds, and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, which will alleviate banks' liability pressure and support the real economy [2] - The structural tools emphasized in the policy will support technology innovation, consumer services, and inclusive finance, with a significant increase in the re-lending quota for technology innovation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - Zhengzhou Bank's Q1 2025 report shows strong growth across key metrics, achieving increases in total assets, deposits, loans, revenue, and profit, marking a historical high for the bank [4] - As of the end of Q1 2025, Zhengzhou Bank's total assets grew by 4.46% year-on-year, surpassing 700 billion yuan, with total deposits of 430.11 billion yuan (up 6.32%) and total loans of 400.24 billion yuan (up 3.24%) [4] - The bank's operating income reached 3.475 billion yuan, a 2.22% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 1.016 billion yuan, up 4.98% from the previous year, indicating a stable growth trend [4] Group 3 - Zhengzhou Bank's strategic focus on retail transformation has led to a significant increase in personal deposits, which rose by 11.61% to 243.51 billion yuan, accounting for 56.6% of total deposits [5][6] - The bank's innovative credit products, such as "Zheng e-loan" and "Housing e-loan," have met diverse personal credit needs, with personal loan balances reaching 93.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.88% [6] - By concentrating credit resources on key industrial clusters in Henan province, Zhengzhou Bank has established a positive feedback mechanism that supports local economic development [6] Group 4 - The central bank's policy initiatives provide a strategic opportunity for banks to enhance their services to the real economy, with Zhengzhou Bank's strong performance in Q1 serving as a testament to the effective integration of policy benefits and the bank's strategic direction [7] - As policy benefits continue to unfold, Zhengzhou Bank's advantages in technology innovation and green finance may position it favorably in regional financial competition and value reassessment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights how Annil, a leading children's clothing brand in China, has successfully focused on the domestic market, avoiding the adverse effects of U.S.-China trade tensions and tariffs, while capitalizing on local consumer demand and government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Annil has maintained a domestic business ratio of 97.82% in 2024, with minimal international market investment, thus avoiding significant impacts from tariffs [2]. - The company has chosen to leverage established cross-border platforms like SHEIN and TEMU for limited international exposure, allowing for controlled market entry [2]. - Annil's strategy emphasizes deepening its presence in the domestic market, focusing on quality upgrades and catering to local consumer preferences [1][2]. Group 2: Market Environment - The Chinese government has implemented policies to stimulate consumption, including maternity benefits and consumer vouchers, which are expected to positively impact the children's clothing market [3]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in March 2025 reached 4.09 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, indicating a recovering consumption environment [3]. - The introduction of local government initiatives, such as the first mother-baby consumption vouchers in Nanchang, aims to reduce childcare costs and stimulate immediate spending [3]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Annil has built a strong brand presence over 29 years, recognized as one of China's top children's clothing brands, and received accolades such as the "Top Ten Children's Clothing Brands" award in 2023 [4]. - The company emphasizes the use of high-quality cotton fabrics, ensuring comfort and safety through strict material standards and innovative design tailored to children's needs [4][5]. - Annil has developed a diverse sales channel strategy, combining direct sales, franchise operations, and a robust online presence across major e-commerce platforms [5].

作者丨Eyan 本期推荐阅读5分钟 本期导读： 技术突破和政策红利正共同推动外资LP对中国市场的"再认识"。 在全球经济格局深刻调整的当下，"东升西落"不再仅是中国内部的战略共识，而是逐渐成为全球资 本市场的现实写照。美国对中国发起的关税战不仅未能遏制中国的发展，反而在全球范围内引发了 对美国经济政策的不信任。与此同时，美债收益率的飙升和美股高估值的持续，使得美元资产的信 用风险日益凸显。在这样的背景下，中国以其稳健的经济增长和日益完善的投资环境，成为全球资 本寻求避风港的新选择。外资LP们开始悄然布局中国市场，寻找新的增长点和投资机会。这一趋 势不仅体现了全球资本对中国市场的重新评估，也标志着中国在全球资本流动中的角色正在发生深 刻变化。 外资重新"认识"中国 今年4月以来美国对全球，尤其是中国，发起的关税战引发了广泛的国际抵制。曾被视为"避风 港"的美元资产，如今正面临信任危机。美债收益率飙升、美股高估值泡沫、以及对华关税战的持 续升级，使得投资者开始重新审视美国资产的安全性。与此同时，中国市场以其稳定的政策环境和 科技创新能力，逐渐成为全球资本的避风港。 美国国债市场一直被视为全球最安全的投资标的。然而 ...

说到太湖边的城市，很多人会想到苏州、无锡，但常州和湖州这对"太湖双子星"却常常被忽略。有意思 的是，这两座城市不仅地理位置相近、文化同源，甚至连面积都差不多，但经济发展水平却天差地别 ——常州的GDP是湖州的2.5倍还多。怎么说呢，这背后的原因，还真值得好好聊聊。 交通区位：一个在"黄金走廊"，一个在"边缘地带" 你如果打开长三角地图，会发现常州的位置简直像是开了挂。它北靠长江，南临太湖，正好卡在沪宁城 市走廊中间，铁路、高速、港口要啥有啥。从常州到上海，高铁只要1小时；到南京，更是40分钟就能 搞定。这种交通便利度，让常州成了产业转移的"香饽饽"，上海、南京的企业要外迁，第一个想到的就 是它。 反观湖州，虽然也在太湖边，但怎么说呢...位置就有点尴尬了。太湖把它和长三角核心区硬生生隔开， 既不在沪宁线上，也不在沪杭走廊里。话说回来，早些年湖州人去上海，得先绕道杭州，路上折腾三四 个小时都是常事。直到2024年沪苏湖高铁开通，情况才好转些，但和常州比还是差了一大截。这种交通 劣势，直接导致湖州错过了早期产业转移的黄金期。 产业结构：高端制造VS传统产业 说到产业，常州可是"苏南模式"的标杆选手。它从乡镇企业起 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4月制造业PMI环比下行1.5个点至49.0，环比降幅明显大于2014年以来季节性均值的0.8个点。中观景气面同步放缓，位于扩张区间的行业个数由前值 的8个减少至5个。前期公布的EPMI、BCI指数和PMI指向一致，可以相互印证，显示外需的影响在初步形成。 第二， 从分项指标看，从出口订单向生产、价格、就业的传递链条较为清晰。（1）出口订单环比下行4.3个点至44.7，绝对景气水平为过去10年仅好于2020 和2022年4月的偏低水平，显示了关税落地对外需的影响；（2）企业生产量指标4月环比下降2.8个点，且代表企业未来生产意愿的采购指标环比下降5.5个 点，是所有分项指标中环比降幅最大的，显示了企业在外部冲击下主动调整当期和未来生产的表现；（3）购进和出厂价格环比分别下降2.8和3.1个点，尤其是 出厂价格环比降幅创下过去8个月新低，3月PPI环比已经下降0.4个点的背景下，输入性价格下跌过程尚未结束；（4）雇员指标环比下降0.3个点，这一指标已 经环比连续2个月放缓。 第三， 哪些行业相对来说受影响较 ...

24 及25Q1 毛销差保持积极态势 公司24 年毛利率为29.4%，同比基本持平（虽然各项业务毛利率下降，但由于低毛利率的其他业务收入 占比下降，整体毛利率相对稳定）。而25Q1毛利率同比-1.2pct。24 年公司期间费用率同比-1.77pct，主 要由于销售费用率同比-2pct（渠道营销模式变化），而25Q1 期间费用同比-2.5pct，公司毛销差保持积 极态势。 内销高占比，且高股息锚定长期价值 考虑到其他业务拖累，我们下调了收入预期，考虑到准则调整及线上均价波动，我们下调了毛利率预 期，预测25-27 年EPS 为6.23/6.71/7.12 元（25-26年分别下调10%/14%），截至2025/4/25，Wind 可比公 司25 年一致预期平均PE 为11x，考虑到公司外销占比低(24 年仅15%)、高股息防御属性强，关税波动背 景下具备优势，但市场仍存多元业务拓展偏慢担忧，给予公司25 年9xPE 估值，对应目标价56.07 元 （前值58.74 元，基于25 年8.5xPE）。 公司披露2024 年报及25 一季报：2024 年实现总营收1900.38 亿元，同比-7.31%，归母净利321 ...