ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（1.26-1.30） 工业企业利润稳健增长，美联储如期暂停降息 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：工业企业利润增速转正，税制改革聚焦科技和制造业。1 月 26 日，商 务部宣布将启动建设数字贸易示范区，同时完善跨境服务贸易负面清单管理， 数字贸易和服务贸易领域将成为外贸稳增长的重要支撑；27日，数据显示 2025 年全年工业企业利润同比增长 0.6%，高技术制造业等新兴领域增速提升明显， 2026 年全年工业企业利润有望稳中有升；28日，全国税务工作会议召开，2025 年全国税费总额达 33.1 万亿元、同比增 0.9%。2026 年税制改革的核心是平 衡央地财政关系、优化税制结构，相关政策效应释放后，地方税收基础将进一 步巩固；同日，国资委在国新办新闻发布会上介绍 2025年国资央企发展情况， 并明确了支持新兴产业和推进央企并购重组的目标，后续国资委与中央企业将 推动国有资本向新兴产业集聚，将央企打造成培养新质生产力的主力军。 海外：美日联合干预汇市，美联储如期暂停降息。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing development of U.S.-China relations, with President Trump planning a visit to China in April, which is seen as beneficial for both nations [2] - The People's Bank of China is actively engaging with global financial leaders, indicating a focus on macroeconomic policies and trade relations [2] - The Chinese government is prioritizing the service sector in 2026, aiming to expand market access and promote digital trade [2] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is working on initiatives to optimize the layout of state-owned enterprises, with significant investment planned for R&D and asset growth [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of the photovoltaic industry and the need for regulatory measures to ensure healthy competition [2] Company Insights - TikTok has established a joint venture in the U.S. for data security, indicating a strategic move to enhance its operational transparency [5] - China National Petroleum Corporation has achieved large-scale production of high-end materials, reducing reliance on imports for strategic industries [5] - SpaceX is preparing for a significant IPO, aiming for a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, which reflects its growth potential in the commercial space sector [5] - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation is focusing on enhancing its commercial launch capabilities, with ambitious goals for the next decade [5] Banking Sector Insights - The report indicates a slight increase in the proportion of active funds in the banking sector, with a total market value of 1.61 trillion yuan allocated to A-shares [6] - The concentration of holdings among the top five banks has decreased, with notable fluctuations in individual bank positions [7] - Northbound capital has seen a net reduction in bank stocks, with significant decreases in holdings for certain banks [8] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at improving credit conditions and stabilizing net interest margins [8][9]

Economic Growth and Targets - China's GDP growth target for 2026 is likely to remain around 5%, balancing short-term stability and long-term structural transformation [2][3] - The economic growth in 2025 is expected to achieve a target of 5%, with a quarterly growth rate of approximately 4.6% in Q4, indicating a "high first, low second" trend throughout the year [3] Consumption and Investment Trends - Consumption is expected to see a slight recovery in 2026, but growth will be limited due to policy, income, and balance sheet constraints, with a focus on structural upgrades in service consumption and new consumption scenarios [5][6] - Investment growth is projected to stabilize in 2026, driven by infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, with a notable shift towards new infrastructure projects such as 5G and AI [6][7] Export Performance - China's exports are anticipated to maintain resilience, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for the year, supported by market diversification and product structure upgrades [8][9] Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise moderately in 2026, driven by service price increases, while PPI is projected to see a narrowing of its decline due to rising prices in emerging industries and resource products [10] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, focusing on precise measures to support the real economy and maintain liquidity [11][12] - Fiscal policy is set to remain actively expansive, with an emphasis on social welfare and debt management, alongside a significant increase in the deficit to support major projects [13][14] Overall Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is in a phase of moderate recovery and structural adjustment, with new growth drivers such as technological innovation and manufacturing upgrades laying the foundation for long-term growth [15]

国务院新闻办公室于1月26日下午举行新闻发布会，商务部介绍2025年商务工作及运行情况，并答记者 问。一起关注—— 全年社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元 全年社会消费品零售总额 首次突破50万亿元，达到50.1万亿元，增长3.7% ，消费对经济增长的贡献率 达到 52% ，提高了5个百分点。 优化实施消费品以旧换新，促进汽车、家电、数码和智能产品等大宗耐用商品消费。开展汽车流通消费 改革试点 ，进一步释放汽车消费潜力。开展好有奖发票试点工作。推动出台促进首发经济等一批务实 管用的政策举措。 加力培育服务消费新增长点 继续实施服务消费提质惠民行动，会同相关部门 推动提升文化娱乐、旅游休闲、餐饮住宿、体育赛 事、医疗健康等领域的供给水平 。 把握消费升级的趋势， 加力培育交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服务、 入境消费等服务消费新的增长点 ，完善支持政策，推进先行先试，培育优质品牌，激发相关领域发展 活力，更好满足人民群众服务消费新需求。 以旧换新相关产品销售额2.61万亿元 扩围提质实施消费品以旧换新，汽车、家电、手机等相关产品销售额 2.61万亿元 ，惠及 3.66亿人次 。 限额以 ...

文件指出，到2030年，实现全省专业市场年交易总额突破2.5万亿元，形成以4家千亿级市场为龙头、6 家五百亿级市场和30家百亿级市场为中坚、其他市场为补充的"4630"梯度发展格局。 探索转型发展。支持空租率高、经营困难的市场实施用地及建筑用途转换，通过兼并重组、股权合作等 方式融入周边大型市场，或转型为社区商业中心、专业展厅；对产权分散的市场，可依法依规先归集产 权再进行整体改造。 发展外贸新业态。持续开展"浙跨全球品牌出海"服务季活动，助力对接跨境电商物流、金融等资源，支 持经营户"抱团出海"；将优质贸易新业态企业纳入跨境贸易高水平开放试点，推行出口拼箱货物"先查 验后装运"模式，提升通关便利化水平。 加强金融政策支持。用好政府投资基金和新型政策性金融工具，发挥结构性货币政策工具激励作用，引 导金融机构加大信贷支持力度，完善供应链金融等普惠金融服务。 关于加快推动专业市场高质量发展的指导意见 为贯彻落实省委、省政府关于构建新发展格局的决策部署，加快推动专业市场高质量发展，建设更高水 平市场强省，近日，浙江省人民政府办公厅印发《关于加快推动专业市场高质量发展的指导意见》。文 件为进一步激活专业市场发展新动能 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's total foreign trade import and export value reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, marking a historical high despite global trade challenges [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Exports reached 26.99 trillion yuan, growing by 6.1%, demonstrating the resilience of China's foreign trade and the positive effects of improved export structure and manufacturing competitiveness [1] - High-tech product exports amounted to 5.25 trillion yuan, increasing by 13.2%, with green products like "new three items" and wind turbines growing by 27.1% and 48.7% respectively [2] - The export structure is shifting from quantity expansion to quality enhancement, driven by long-term collaboration between industrial policies, technological innovation, and market mechanisms [2] Group 2: Policy and Market Environment - The enhancement of export resilience is closely linked to the deep implementation of policies, such as the 167 national standard projects for the "new three items" industry established by the State Administration for Market Regulation [2] - In 2025, the export of industrial robots exceeded imports for the first time, growing by 48.7%, indicating a transition to becoming a net exporter of industrial robots [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - China's private enterprises accounted for over 70% of the foreign trade value of specialized "little giant" companies, with a 9.2% increase in exports through market procurement [3] - The domestic market's vast potential and ongoing technological innovation and industrial upgrades are expected to provide high-quality supply that meets international market demands [3] - The current global economic landscape is undergoing significant adjustments, necessitating a commitment to high-quality development in foreign trade through higher levels of openness [3]

中新网北京1月28日电 "第四届链博会将于6月22日至26日举办。按照链式逻辑遴选优质参展企业，聚焦 产业需求和应用导向，突出展示中外企业创新合作，展现中国产供链对全球支撑作用。"中国贸促会会 长任鸿斌27日在全国贸促工作会议上如是表示。 任鸿斌指出，我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期。我国经济基础 稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变，具备主动运筹国际空间、塑 造外部环境的诸多有利因素。 "我们要积极识变应变求变，进一步织密服务企业网、扩大国际朋友圈，助力我国工商界在激烈国际竞 争中赢得主动、增进合作，更好发挥在国内国际双循环中的桥梁纽带作用。"任鸿斌称。 另外，全国贸促系统还将加强自贸协定实施推广，帮助企业运用跨境电商、出口信用保险等多种方式扩 大出口。稳妥开展进口促进工作，支持企业依托进博会、消博会等平台扩大对相关国家优质产品和服务 进口，更好满足我国产业转型升级需要和消费升级需求，推动进出口平衡发展。 据介绍，中国贸促会将于11月在深圳举办APEC工商领导人峰会和APEC工商咨询理事会(ABAC)第四次 会议，高质量发布《APEC工商领导人峰会深 ...

Group 1 - The African Export-Import Bank warns that without rapid establishment of shared digital infrastructure to support cross-border payments, data exchange, and business connectivity, trade integration in Africa faces stagnation risks [1] - Digital infrastructure is positioned at the core of Africa's economic integration agenda, as the digital economy is fundamental to the operation of modern trade systems [1] - Challenges to African integration extend beyond tariffs and trade agreements, requiring a digital infrastructure that integrates trust frameworks, payment systems, data flows, and connectivity systems [1] Group 2 - The goal of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is to create a unified African market covering over 1.4 billion people, but its implementation is slowed by high currency exchange costs, limited trade financing channels, and weak digital interoperability [2] - The African Export-Import Bank is working to build a comprehensive platform across Africa to help businesses overcome cross-border limitations and achieve efficient cross-border transactions [2] - The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) is a core foundation of Africa's emerging digital trade architecture, enabling real-time cross-border payments in local currencies, reducing reliance on correspondent banking networks, and minimizing the impact of external currency fluctuations [2]

Group 1 - The core focus for 2026 includes boosting consumption, supporting innovative development in foreign trade, and expanding bilateral investment opportunities [2][5] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to conduct over 20 "Buy in China" themed events and promote policies to enhance consumption in durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances [2][3] - Service consumption is identified as a key driver for domestic demand and transformation, with initiatives to improve supply levels in cultural, entertainment, tourism, and healthcare sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce aims to stabilize foreign trade through a combination of policies and promote the development of cross-border e-commerce [4][5] - Plans include establishing a national digital trade demonstration zone and enhancing the management of cross-border service trade [4][6] - The focus will also be on expanding high-level openness in sectors like telecommunications and healthcare, ensuring equal treatment for foreign investors [6][7] Group 3 - The government will accelerate the cultivation of international consumption center cities and enhance the consumer market's vitality, with retail sales expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [7] - The contribution of consumption to economic growth is projected to reach 52%, highlighting its role as a primary engine for economic development [7] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement specific actions to boost consumption and create a strong domestic market, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tianjin aims to enhance international cooperation and trade innovation through the implementation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) initiatives over the next five years, focusing on green industries, digital economy, and vocational education [1][2]. Group 1: Green Industry and Digital Economy - Tianjin plans to establish a cooperative mechanism for green industries involving various sectors, deepening exchanges and investments in green technology with SCO countries [2]. - The city aims to create a leading green low-carbon circular economy industry system and enhance international collaboration in fields such as computing power, cloud services, and artificial intelligence to build a digital economy ecosystem [2]. Group 2: Vocational Education and Healthcare - The establishment of the China-SCO Vocational Technical Education Cooperation Center is scheduled for September 2025, which will focus on integrating vocational skills with artificial intelligence to support educational and healthcare cooperation among SCO nations [3][2]. - A plan is in place to conduct 10,000 cancer screenings for SCO countries over the next five years, emphasizing humanistic education and healthcare collaboration [2]. Group 3: Trade and Investment - Tianjin will enhance financial support for trade innovation, including increasing export credit insurance and developing an international port economic cooperation center to provide comprehensive customs services [5]. - The draft outlines the optimization of goods trade, expansion of intermediate goods trade, and development of high-quality, high-tech, and high-value-added green product trade, alongside a focus on service and digital trade [5]. - The city will promote two-way investment cooperation, facilitating foreign investment and encouraging domestic reinvestment, particularly in infrastructure, international trade, and green petrochemicals [5][6].