Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern, with Brent spreads stronger than the Dubai market. This is due to high short - term refinery profits, expected increase in refinery operations, decline in leading indicators of US shale oil, and the stalemate in US - Iran negotiations [5][6]. - Medium - to long - term: Crude oil is expected to be in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policies and supply - demand surplus [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, WTI prices decreased by $0.56, BRENT by $0.77, and DUBAI by $0.75. SC prices increased by 5.70, while OMAN decreased by 1.01 [3]. - For refined products, domestic gasoline prices increased by 20.00, and domestic diesel prices remained unchanged, with their spreads to BRENT also showing corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that completely giving up uranium enrichment goes against Iran's interests and rejected US coercion [3]. - Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC+ to further increase oil production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September to regain market share [3]. - Canada's Natural Resources Company restarted the Jackfish 1 oil sands project, aiming to fully restore its 36,500 - barrel - per - day capacity by June 7 [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day [4][5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a 0.63% decline, while strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, a 0.2% increase [5]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.897 million barrels per day, a 0.22% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - In China, the main refinery operating rate decreased, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased. Gasoline and diesel production both increased, with significant inventory reduction. Main refinery comprehensive profits rebounded, and local refinery comprehensive profits improved [5]. 3.4 Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. After OPEC's July production increase decision, prices rose over the weekend due to geopolitical tensions such as Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian territory, the unresolved US - Iran negotiations, and wildfires in Canada's oil - producing province [5]. - Fundamentally, global oil inventories were basically flat, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased significantly. On the supply side, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs continued to decline, OPEC increased production as expected, and Iran's production increased in April [5][6]. - On the demand side, global refinery profits slightly declined but were still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly lower than expected. With the start of the summer travel season, gasoline and jet fuel demand increased [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Brent monthly spread stronger than the Dubai market. The short - term high refinery profits are expected to lead to an increase in refinery operations. The leading indicators of US shale oil are declining, and the US - Iran negotiation is at a stalemate [5]. - Medium - to - long - term: Crude oil is in a bearish pattern due to OPEC supply policies and supply - demand surplus [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Price Data - **International Crude Oil**: From May 27 to June 3, WTI increased by $2.62 to $63.41, BRENT increased by $2.85 to $65.63, and DUBAI increased by $1.16 to $64.89 [3]. - **Domestic Oil Products**: From May 27 to June 3, domestic gasoline increased by 50 yuan to 7710 yuan, and domestic diesel increased by 63 yuan to 6639 yuan [3]. - **Other Oil - Related Products**: From May 27 to June 3, Japan naphtha CFR decreased by $9.59, Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $10, and HH natural gas decreased by $0.16 [3][12]. 3.2 News and Events - **US - Iran Negotiation**: The US proposed allowing Iran to conduct low - level uranium enrichment, but Iranian officials said the proposal was "incoherent and disjointed", and the next round of talks' time is uncertain. Iran will respond in a few days [3][4]. - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's crude oil production in May increased by 200,000 barrels per day to 27.54 million barrels per day [4]. - **US API Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 30 was - 3.3 million barrels, exceeding the expected - 0.9 million barrels [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Report**: In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a decrease of 0.63%; strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, an increase of 0.2% [4][5]. - **China's Oil Market**: This week, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [5]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Supply**: US shale oil drilling rig numbers continue to decline. OPEC increased production by 411,000 barrels per day as expected in July, and Iran's production increased in April. The internal production compliance rate of OPEC + increased in April [5]. - **Demand**: Global refinery profits declined slightly but are still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly lower than expected. The summer travel season has begun, and the demand for gasoline and jet fuel has increased [5].

Group 1 - OPEC+ crude oil exports in May decreased instead of increasing, indicating a tighter market condition [1] - The futures market is experiencing a significant rise in cross-period price spreads, reflecting a shift towards a tighter pricing environment [1] - Macroeconomic disturbances on both supply and demand sides are frequent, suggesting that oil prices may enter a volatile phase within the month [1] Group 2 - Summer demand is expected to create buying support, but the optimal entry point for bullish positions may not be immediate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will increase due to fluctuations in international oil prices, with specific adjustments taking effect on June 3rd at 24:00 [1][3]. Price Adjustment Details - From June 3rd, the price of gasoline will increase by 65 yuan per ton, while diesel will rise by 60 yuan per ton. On average, the price per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel will increase by 0.05 yuan [1]. - Filling a 50L tank with 92 gasoline will cost an additional 2.5 yuan [1]. Historical Context - Since 2025, there have been five price reductions for refined oil retail limits, and 92 gasoline is expected to return to the "6 yuan era" for the first time since the end of 2021 [3]. Market Dynamics - The international oil price is experiencing a mixed trend due to various factors. Concerns over oversupply and short-selling by international capital have contributed to price declines, while geopolitical risks and seasonal demand have supported price increases [3]. - The "OPEC+" decision to accelerate production in July has shifted market expectations, intensifying concerns about oversupply [3]. - Seasonal factors, such as the summer driving season in Europe and the U.S., are contributing to a rebound in refined oil consumption demand, which supports higher international oil prices [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that international oil prices will continue to fluctuate, with potential for increased volatility due to frequent adjustments in U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical instability [3].

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/03 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/05/26 | - | 64.74 | - | - | 0.62 | - | 2.23 | - | - | - | - | | 2025/05/27 | 60.89 | 64.09 | 63.53 | 0.26 | 0.52 | -3.20 | 2.15 | 207.15 | 22.91 | 207.94 | 23.24 | | 2025/05/28 | 61.84 | 64.90 | 63.65 | 0.16 | 0.58 | -3.06 | 1.88 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are oscillating strongly. In the medium - long term, crude oil will maintain a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - Iran's Foreign Minister is "not sure" about approaching an agreement with the US. While US President Trump said they are "very close" to a deal, which may be reached in the "coming weeks" [3] - After the US court ruled the tariff illegal, oil prices rose and then fell. The ruling boosted market risk - appetite and eased concerns about global economic slowdown. The White House will appeal the decision. The possible new sanctions on Russia led to a slight increase in oil prices, but the expected OPEC+ production increase in July offset some of this impact [3] - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not adjust the oil production policy and plans to use 2025 production as the benchmark for 2027. The potential production increase plans of eight countries will be discussed on Saturday. Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain production after the July increase [4] 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day [4] - EIA report: In the week of May 23, US commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a decrease of 0.63%. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, an increase of 0.2% [4] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US refined oil products was 19.897 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.22% compared to the same period last year [4] - In the week of May 23, US commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.351 million barrels per day, an increase of 262,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from local refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while that of local refineries decreased [4] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices oscillated. OPEC+ is discussing a large - scale production increase in July without a final decision. The fifth round of US - Iran negotiations ended without a conclusive result [5] - Fundamentally, global refined oil inventories decreased this week. US commercial crude inventories increased seasonally, with absolute inventories lower than the historical average, and gasoline and diesel inventories increased slightly [5] - On the supply side, the number of US crude oil drilling rigs decreased significantly, and OPEC's planned production increase was in line with expectations. On the demand side, global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. US refinery operating rates increased slightly, the summer travel season is approaching, global flight numbers are increasing, and the operating rate of domestic refineries is recovering [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market continues to fluctuate, and the market is waiting for a clearer trend. The increase in production by OPEC+ and geopolitical factors are the main factors affecting the market [1][2]. - The prices of chemical products have intensified in recent games. The increase in container shipping volume from China to the United States and the expected increase in production by OPEC+ have become trading points. The market is worried about a decline in crude oil prices in the future, and investors generally view the chemical market with a fluctuating mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil market continues to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production limits the increase in oil prices [1]. - Chemical products continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The resumption of device maintenance and production and the improvement of demand have become the focus of the game [2]. 3.2 Variety Viewpoints | Variety | Viewpoint | Mid - term Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | Concerns about production increase persist, and oil prices are still under pressure | Oscillating weakly [4] | | LPG | Domestic demand remains weak, and the rebound of PG is limited | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Asphalt | The futures price of asphalt is overestimated and waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4] | | High - sulfur Fuel Oil | The overestimated state of high - sulfur fuel oil is waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4][5] | | Low - sulfur Fuel Oil | The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Methanol | The inland price has declined slightly, and it fluctuates in the short term | Oscillating [14] | | Urea | The domestic rigid demand and export demand have not been linked, and the futures market fluctuates weakly | Oscillating [14] | | PX | Supply and demand are tightening, and PX prices are rising | Oscillating [8] | | PTA | The market lacks driving force, and PTA maintains an oscillating pattern | Oscillating [8] | | Ethylene Glycol | The reduction in polyester production drags down the demand for EG, but the expectation of inventory reduction still supports the futures price | Oscillating [10][11] | | Short - fiber | The basis strengthens, and the pattern of short - fiber remains healthy | Oscillating [11][12] | | Bottle Chip | Fluctuates and consolidates following raw materials | Oscillating [13] | | PP | Supply and demand are still under pressure, and PP fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [16][17] | | Plastic | The fundamental pressure needs to be alleviated by increased maintenance, and plastic fluctuates | Oscillating [16] | | Styrene | The actual performance is still poor, and styrene fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [8][9] | | PVC | Weak expectations and low valuations, and the futures market fluctuates | Oscillating [19] | | Caustic Soda | Strong current situation and weak expectations, and caustic soda fluctuates | Oscillating weakly [19] | 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) with a latest value of - 3 and a change of 4, and WTI (M1 - M2) with a latest value of 0.64 and a change of 0.04 [20]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 109 with a change of 10, and the warehouse receipt is 86510 [21]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA with a latest value of 6 and a change of 0 [22]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions basis and spread monitoring for multiple chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [23][35][47].

| 11/12 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月26日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价总体震荡，布伦特07合约周度小幅下跌0.46%，SC07合约跌0.75%。上周五特朗普威,励6月1日起对欧盟 征收50%关税,此举将再次引发欧盟油品需求承压预期,同时欧洲对美出口汽油若未得豁免将在北美进入驾驶旺季 后拉动美国汽油裂解。关于6月1日OPEC+8国会议延续7月41.1万桶/天快速增产的担忧同样令市场承压，但周五美伊 第五轮核谈未达成协议,特朗普亦表示或因俄乌军事冲突持续而对俄罗斯加大制裁。制裁油供应风险仍对 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has threatened to escalate the trade war by suggesting a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, which has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - Gold prices surged over $150 last week due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's, but the extension of the tariff deadline to July 9 may lead to a potential price correction [3][1] - The WTI crude oil futures experienced fluctuations, initially dropping but then rebounding to above $61 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][6] Group 2 - The gold market is currently showing signs of potential adjustment after reaching a high of $3365, with technical indicators suggesting a possible downward movement [3][1] - Oil prices are in a volatile state, with support observed at the $60 mark, and the market is expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern unless significant news or data emerges [6][4] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes risk management, highlighting the importance of avoiding significant losses while navigating market fluctuations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil prices will continue to fluctuate due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase discussions, non - compliance of some member countries, and the deadlock in US - Iran nuclear negotiations [1]. - The absolute price volatility of fuel oil (FU and LU) is expected to increase in the short term, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [3]. - The absolute price volatility of asphalt (BU) is expected to increase in the short term. BU may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term oscillatory mindset [5]. - The price of natural rubber will oscillate in the short term [5][7]. - The price fluctuation of methanol may increase, and attention should be paid to MTO device复产 plans and Iranian device changes [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, international oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July. Saudi Arabia warned non - compliant members. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation is at a deadlock, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The oil price will oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2507) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be tight before June, and high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested. The absolute price volatility of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the LU - FU spread has shown an inflection point [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2507) rose. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. Supply may rise in June, but some refineries may reduce production next week. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak variety [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures contracts fell. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light. An EO - EG联产 device stopped working, and two synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol devices in Henan will be shut down for maintenance. PX supply supports PXN, and PTA devices are restarting. Polyester operating load is high, and ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to decrease. Both PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts (RU2509, NR, BR) showed different trends. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises decreased. The low production at the beginning of rubber tapping and rainfall in overseas production areas support raw material prices. Rubber imports increased, and Qingdao inventory decreased slightly. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased due to domestic device maintenance but is still at a high level in the past five years. Iranian device load has dropped, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. MTO device operation has not changed much, and port and inland inventories are low. The price fluctuation of methanol may increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) showed different trends. There are many upstream maintenance activities, and supply pressure is not large. Demand has increased due to tariff reduction, and inventory has decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at high levels, and polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is stable, but demand will weaken in the off - season. The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price change rate, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [13]. - Turkey's imports of Urals crude oil will increase in May as its top refinery Tupras has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, which is traded below the Western price cap of $60 per barrel [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30][32][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [60][62][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy - Chemical Research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China) and a mid - level economist title [77]. 3.6 Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [79]