Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed weakness on July 11, with government bond futures mostly declining, while liquidity remained balanced but slightly contracted, indicating a mixed outlook for the market [1][4]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.05% at 120.610, while the 10-year main contract fell 0.02% to 108.830 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 0.1 basis points to 1.975%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.665% [2]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average bidding yields for 2-year and 3-year government bonds at 1.3582% and 1.3735%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.6 and 3.12 [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 847 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 507 billion yuan for the day [4]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 1.7 basis points to 1.333% [4]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that the convertible bond market is experiencing high valuations, leading investors to prefer reducing positions in convertible bonds while increasing exposure to equity indices [5]. - Guosheng Fixed Income highlighted the continued growth of bond ETFs, with expectations for further expansion in the sci-tech bond ETF market due to policy support [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in May, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year, with new RMB loans nearing 620 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Data - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The nominal economic growth rate in recent years has entered a medium-to-high growth phase, with financial total indicators maintaining an increase of over 8%, exceeding the nominal economic growth rate by approximately 4 percentage points, which is at a historically high level and has persisted for a long time [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Measures - On May 7, the central bank announced a series of financial support measures, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, and the optimization and creation of structural monetary policy tools [1] - Experts indicated that the measures taken are substantial, and the effects of monetary policy will take time to manifest, with policies gradually being implemented effectively [1] - The central bank will continue to utilize various monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable liquidity [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The bond futures market continues to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - On June 6, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year bond futures main contracts rose by 0.35%, 0.17%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively [1] - Overnight shibor was reported at 1.4080%, unchanged from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was reported at 1.5340%, down 0.9bp from the previous trading day; 14 - day shibor was reported at 1.5910%, up 1.5bp from the previous trading day; 1 - month shibor was reported at 1.6200%, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] 2. Previous Trading Day Bond Futures Market - The trading volume of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond futures main contracts was 34,876, 49,178, 54,263, and 70,269 respectively, and the open interest was 117,087, 145,436, 177,112, and 96,837 respectively [2] - The IRR of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year active CTD bonds was 1.94%, 1.67%, 1.68%, and 1.21% respectively, and the current R007 was about 1.5514% [2] 3. Money Market - On June 6, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded a total of 2.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.98%. Overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day, and 1 - month rates were 1.39% (down 1bp), 1.53% (down 7bp), 1.52% (down 8bp), and 1.75% (up 15bp) respectively [3] 4. Cash Bond - The bond yield curve shifted down by 1.25 - 1.80BP (2Y down 1.54BP to 1.42%; 5Y down 1.25BP to 1.55%; 10Y down 1.76BP to 1.66%; 30Y down 1.80BP to 1.88%) [3] - The credit bond yield curve showed mixed changes (the yield to maturity of medium - and short - term notes rated AAA: 6M down 7.00BP to 1.71%; 1Y down 4.00BP to 1.74%; 3Y up 48.00BP to 2.29%; 5Y down 1.25BP to 1.97%) [3] 5. Macro and Industry News - On June 5, the People's Bank of China announced a 100 billion yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation on June 6 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [8] - On the evening of June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. The US is facing risks such as debt ceiling expiration, a weakening labor market, and intensified trade frictions. Sino - US trade consultations will be held in London on Monday [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with government bond futures showing slight gains while interbank bond yields are mostly rising, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.04% to 119.600, the 10-year main contract up 0.04% to 108.850, the 5-year main contract up 0.07% to 106.050, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% to 102.408 [2]. - Interbank major bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.75 basis points to 1.6925%, and the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 1 basis point to 1.927% [2]. Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 360 billion yuan in the open market, with short-term funding rates turning upward [1][6]. - The PBOC is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with a net MLF injection of 3.75 trillion yuan anticipated for May, following a recent reserve requirement ratio cut [8] [6]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the MLF operations are expected to continue providing substantial liquidity, with the potential for MLF net injections to become a regular practice [8]. - Dongfang Jincheng highlighted that the ongoing unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments are aimed at maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system and enhancing credit availability for enterprises and residents [8]. - Huatai Securities pointed out that the significant rise in long-term bond yields in the US and Japan is primarily due to concerns over government bond auctions and sovereign rating downgrades, exacerbated by high debt levels in both countries [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The central bank conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan, which will increase banks' credit - lending ability [8]. - The US soybean market is in a range - bound state, with factors on both the supply and demand sides that could break the current range [9]. - Manganese silicon showed a short - term upward trend driven by sentiment but is under long - term pressure from fundamentals [11]. - Asphalt is at a high cracking level, and it is advisable to wait and see for the moment [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Monetary Policy - On May 23, the central bank carried out a 500 billion yuan MLF operation with a 1 - year term. After this operation, the MLF achieved a net injection of 375 billion yuan, as the maturity volume this month was 125 billion yuan. This is the third consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs, with net injections of 63 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan in March and April respectively [8]. 3.2 Commodity Markets 3.2.1 US Soybeans - The US soybean market is in a range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel. On the supply side, factors such as a reduction in planting area or a decline in yield could push prices above 1200 cents per bushel. On the demand side, a clear Sino - US trade outlook and a large - scale return of Chinese purchases could also lead to a significant price increase. If Chinese demand does not return and shifts entirely to South America, US soybean prices may fall to around 950 cents per bushel [9][10]. 3.2.2 Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon rose by 3.84% to close at 5998 yuan per ton, driven by information from the South African ore end. However, the fundamentals are relatively weak. The manganese ore port inventory is gradually accumulating, and Australian ore is expected to resume shipments in June, which may squeeze the current manganese ore market. On the supply - demand side, the main production areas have no production - cut plans, and inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory are at relatively high levels. In the long - term, it may continue a weak trend [11]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The release of asphalt demand is not ideal. Refineries' production control has kept northern inventories at a low level, while southern inventories are gradually increasing, with the greatest pressure in South China. In the short - term, low production may support northern inventories, but the rainy season may increase southern inventory pressure. It is advisable to pay attention to trade logistics changes in South China and regional price - difference rebalancing [12][13]. 3.2.4 Other Commodities - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, while silver will follow gold's upward movement [16][19]. - Copper prices are supported by inventory reduction [25]. - Aluminum is in a range - bound state, and alumina is expected to decline slightly [28]. - Zinc is under pressure, and lead is in a supply - demand double - weak state with range adjustment [31][34]. - Tin is in a narrow - range oscillation [37]. - Stainless steel has a clear cost bottom but lacks upward - driving force [42]. - Lithium carbonate is affected by non - ore policy risks, and its fundamentals restrict upward movement [48]. - Industrial silicon shows a weak overall trend, while polysilicon's market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to its upward space [51][52]. - Iron ore's short - term upward drivers have slowed down [55]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [57][58]. - Coke and coking coal are in bottom - range oscillations [66]. - Steam coal is in a weak - oscillation state due to increased coal - mine inventory [69]. - Logs are in a weak - oscillation state [72].

微盘股能在今年再创新高，恐怕在很多人的意料之外。 参考中邮证券金工团队的统计，近一季万得微盘股指数上涨17.15%，在38个宽基指数当中排名第1；近一年万得微盘股指数上涨64.6%，在38个宽基 指数当中排名第2。不仅如此，万得微盘股指数还连续5个月出现月度级别的K线上涨。 那么，该如何理解当下再创新高的微盘股呢？ 有人觉得微盘股再创新高的背后，是 流动性充裕 的结构性行情。华创证券的报告中提到，小盘成长风格（科创50、北证50、国证2000、微盘股）有 望受益于更快落地的货币宽松。4月剩余流动性【M2同比-社融存量（剔除股权融资和政府债券）同比】从0.98%升至1.86%。叠加央行优化两项支持 资本市场的货币政策工具、支持中央汇金公司发挥好类"平准基金"两项政策支持股市流动性，当下的小盘成长行情得到进一步加强。 参与人多的地方，关注点就得聚焦到资金面上。事实上，这不是小编第一次涉足微盘股话题，在过去的内容中，我们曾和大家探讨过 （请戳这里） ，微盘股策略赚的不是基本面的钱，而是估值的提升。此前国海证券的报告中通过分解股票收益为PE（市盈率）乘以EPS（每股收益），发现小微 也有人将此归因为 资金属性 所致。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that a moderately loose monetary policy includes low comprehensive financing costs for society and ample liquidity [1]

作 者丨唐婧 编 辑丨方海平 2 0 2 5年4月2 4日，央行发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2 0 2 5年4 月2 5日（周五），将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6 0 0 0亿元MLF操作，期 限为1年期。 2 0 2 5年中央金融机构注资特别国债也于4月2 4日启动发行，发行金额为1 6 5 0亿元，发行期限 为5年期，加权中标利率1 . 4 5%。 来源：财政部网站 根据前期公布的发行安排，2 0 2 5年中央金融机构注资特别国债共4只，其中2只为5年期、2只 为7年期。据财政部此前介绍，2 0 2 5年，财政部将发行首批特别国债5 0 0 0亿元，积极支持中 国银行、中国建设银行、交通银行、中国邮政储蓄银行补充核心一级资本。此次资本补充工 作将按照市场化、法治化原则稳妥推进。 曾在央行货币政策司公开市场业务处任职的中信证券首席经济学家明明告诉记者，政府债供 给高峰临近，央行宽货币发力旨在维护流动性充裕。一方面，4月以来资金面相对宽松，但下 周劳动节假期将至，资金可能面临一定的跨节压力。 另一方面，第一批超长期特别国债和中 央金融机构注资特别国债的发行已于4月2 ...