Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, and indicated two more cuts may occur this year, with one expected next year instead of the previously anticipated two to three [2] - Following the Fed's announcement, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Monetary Authority of Macao also reduced their base rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index initially fell but then rebounded significantly after the Fed's decision, moving from 96.3 to 97.18, while the euro exchange rate strengthened from 1.191 to 1.179 [3] - U.S. Treasury yields for the 10-year note dropped by 5 basis points to around 4.00% before recovering to approximately 4.05% [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The decline in short-term rates alongside a slight increase in long-term rates suggests a steepening yield curve, reflecting market concerns about "stagnant economic growth but rising prices," which aligns with the Fed's current worries regarding employment data and inflation [7] - Despite the Fed's rate cut, the strengthening dollar has led to a decrease in gold prices, which had previously reached new highs, indicating a potential profit-taking phase among traders [8] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.57%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.33% and 0.10%, respectively [10] - Notable performances included Goldman Sachs, which rose by 1.11%, and Caterpillar, which increased by 2.27%, benefiting from the lower interest rates [10] Group 5: Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks, represented by the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, rose by 2.85%, with Alibaba and Baidu continuing their upward momentum, gaining 2.44% and 11.34%, respectively [12] - However, there are concerns about potential profit-taking as the market shifts focus from "expectations" to "realities," with significant recent gains in stocks like Baidu and Alibaba prompting caution [12][13] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is entering a "verification period" where the focus will shift to whether companies can deliver solid earnings to support their stock prices, especially in light of the recent strong performance of Chinese tech stocks [13] - The Fed's rate cut has led to a complex scenario where the market must navigate between economic slowdown and inflation, indicating that future volatility will be driven more by economic data and corporate earnings rather than policy speculation [14][15]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Today, the stock market oscillated and declined with a significant increase in trading volume in both the stock and futures markets. After the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed, the demand for profit - taking at high levels and short - hedging is expected to rise. The electronics, communication, and social service industries related to holidays showed relative resilience. The market has already priced in a 25BP interest rate cut in September and two cuts within the year, so today's stock market correction was expected. Given the large trading volume, there is a need to be vigilant about an enlarged correction. Attention should be paid to the trading volume and the support of the 20 - day moving average of the stock index. If the closing price falls below the 20 - day moving average, the downside space may open further. Additionally, the further development of Sino - US trade relations is a major short - term uncertainty [4] Group 3: Market Review Summary - Today, the stock index had a large - scale increase in volume, and the scale index weakened overall. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 1.16%. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 7584.20 billion yuan. All stock index futures declined with increased volume [2] Group 4: Important Information Summary - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the TikTok issue, stating that it will never seek any agreement at the expense of principles, corporate interests, and international fairness and justice [3] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.35 | -1.45 | -1.00 | -1.19 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 22.0019 | 10.0595 | 23.6268 | 42.8973 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 5.752 | 3.5836 | 7.2444 | 14.307 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 28.8603 | 11.4842 | 27.1127 | 40.5154 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.4691 | 1.0071 | 1.9056 | 2.5806 | [5] Group 6: Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.15 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.06 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.22 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 31351.58 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 7584.20 | [6] Group 7: Other Data Summaries - Data on the ratio of margin trading volume to A - share trading volume, cross - variety strength, and index premium/discount rates are presented in graphical forms, showing trends over different time periods from 2023 - 2025 [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing upward momentum due to expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, which are driving safe-haven demand for gold [1][2] Group 2 - On September 17, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 835.08 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.36% and a trading volume of 164,311 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai on September 17 was quoted at 834.60 yuan per gram, reflecting a discount of 0.48 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the Federal Reserve has been slow to respond, with the market pricing in a 75 basis point rate cut by the end of the year [1] - The COMEX gold futures rose by 0.23% to $3727.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.19% to $42.88 per ounce [2] - The expectation of liquidity easing and geopolitical uncertainties are contributing to the bullish sentiment in the gold market, with forecasts suggesting gold prices will remain supported [2] - The projected trading range for COMEX gold is between $3500 and $3800 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold range is between 795 and 850 yuan per gram [2]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The strong performance of the domestic stock market and the RMB reflects the relative advantages of the domestic fundamentals and the established shift in liquidity expectations. The positive feedback between the two further amplifies the strong performance. The bullish trend of the stock market in the future still has fundamental and policy support, and a long - position mindset can be maintained [1][10] Summary by Directory 1. Abnormal Trends of Stock and Exchange Rates - The domestic stock market has hit consecutive new highs, with the CSI 300 index breaking through 4,500, and the trading volume of the two markets reaching a maximum of three trillion yuan. The USD/CNY exchange rate has appreciated significantly since the end of August, decoupling from the US dollar index. The on - shore USD/CNY has dropped from around 7.18 to around 7.13, with an appreciation of about 0.5% in the last week of August, while the US dollar index has only dropped by 0.1% and basically fluctuated around 98 [2] 2. Mutual Reinforcement of Stock and Exchange Rates - **Mutual Positive Feedback**: Exchange rate appreciation benefits A - shares through foreign capital demand support and liquidity - driven valuation boosts. Stock market rises enhance exchange rate appreciation expectations through increased foreign capital inflows and improved economic expectations. The foreign capital inflows and valuation boosts brought by RMB appreciation were important reasons for the stock market breakthrough in late August, and the optimism from the stock market rise was the basis for the RMB's significant appreciation at the end of August [5] - **Underlying Drivers**: Domestically, policies such as real - estate policies have boosted economic expectations in August, while in the US, data divergence and external fiscal issues have increased recession expectations. In terms of liquidity, the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September is almost certain, and the market expects a relatively "aggressive" monetary policy easing path, which supports the stock market valuation and the RMB [6] 3. Future Outlook - **Economic Fundamentals**: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable, with the main risk being the unexpected deterioration of tariff policies. The US fundamentals face multiple uncertainties such as large fiscal deficits, policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks, inflation risks, and employment pressures [8] - **Liquidity**: The domestic monetary policy remains moderately loose, and the Fed's interest rate cut provides more room for domestic monetary easing. US employment data has increased the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. If there is no unexpected data adjustment, the Fed's interest rate cut will be dovish, which is beneficial for the release of domestic monetary easing expectations [9] 4. Conclusion - The strong performance of the domestic stock market and the RMB is based on the relative advantages of domestic fundamentals and the shift in liquidity expectations. The positive feedback between them further amplifies the trend. The stock market's strength in the future has fundamental and policy support, and a long - position mindset can be maintained, with the main risk being the unexpected deterioration of tariff policies [10]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - Global stock markets are characterized by "tech stocks leading, A-share growth sectors diverging, and Hong Kong stocks driven by southbound capital for valuation recovery" [1] - The Nasdaq index rose 1.14% to reach a new high, supported by the resilience of AI computing and semiconductor sectors, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.32% due to reduced investment in large-cap blue-chip stocks [1] - Emerging markets showed structural divergence, with Brazil's IBOVESPA index up 0.86% and the Nikkei 225 index up 0.70%, driven by semiconductor export recovery [1] Group 2: Commodity Market - COMEX gold prices increased by 3.52% to $3639.8 per ounce, driven by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, benefiting precious metal sectors in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - ICE Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.68% to $65.67 per barrel due to global economic slowdown expectations [2] Group 3: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market experienced its first significant adjustment since the current rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% and the ChiNext Index up 2.35% supported by the new energy sector [2] - Trading activity decreased, with total A-share turnover at 13.02 trillion yuan, a 12.8% week-on-week decline, indicating profit-taking in high-positioned sectors [2] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market saw a net inflow of southbound capital amounting to 30.269 billion yuan, pushing the Hang Seng Index up 1.36% [3] - Southbound capital has cumulatively exceeded 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars this year, with significant investments in Alibaba and Tencent [3] Group 5: Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the power equipment sector led gains with a 7.39% increase, while the defense and military sector fell by 10.25% due to profit-taking and valuation concerns [3] - The Hong Kong precious metals sector surged by 10.66% due to rising gold prices, while the trade and distribution sector dropped by 12.74% amid global economic uncertainties [4] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current market logic revolves around liquidity easing expectations and internal rebalancing within growth sectors, with a 99.4% probability of a Fed rate cut in September [4] - The A-share market is expected to continue its rebound driven by growth technology, while the Hong Kong market may see a rebound in the Hang Seng Technology Index supported by ongoing southbound capital inflows [5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks have significantly increased market expectations for a rate cut in September, reshaping the pricing logic of global risk assets, with cryptocurrencies acting as a sensitive "macro barometer" [1][3] Market Reaction - Following Powell's speech, Bitcoin initially surged above $117,000 but quickly retreated below $110,000, indicating a complex interaction between macro and micro market sentiments [3] - The long-term trajectory of the cryptocurrency market remains dependent on deeper macroeconomic factors, with persistent inflation potentially limiting the extent of rate cuts and thus weakening the upward momentum of risk assets [3] Fund Flows and Investment Trends - Recent data shows a significant outflow from cryptocurrency investment products, exceeding $1.4 billion, the highest weekly outflow since March, although there was a recovery post-Powell's remarks, particularly in Ethereum-related products [4] - Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" remains, but Ethereum is gaining traction due to its active ecosystem and higher volatility, making it a more attractive option under liquidity expansion expectations [4] Price Predictions - ZX Squared Capital's co-founder predicts Bitcoin's year-end target price to be between $125,000 and $150,000, indicating a potential upside of 15%-35%, while Ethereum's target is set at $6,000-$7,000 [5] - The early signs of a "altcoin season" are emerging, with a shift in focus towards small-cap tokens as liquidity expands [5] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term (September-October), attention should be on the Federal Reserve's decision on September 17; a 25 basis point cut could lead Bitcoin to retest the $120,000 resistance level [6] - In the medium to long term, the stablecoin market is projected to grow tenfold over the next few years, indicating a maturation of the cryptocurrency market infrastructure and a potential decline in Bitcoin's dominance [6] Strategic Considerations - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy that aligns with macroeconomic trends (rate cut paths, inflation trends) and micro signals (fund flows, asset rotation) rather than simply chasing price movements [8] - XBIT's decentralized exchange platform offers a non-custodial model, allowing users to control their private keys and manage funds through smart contracts, enhancing security and facilitating cross-chain trading [8]

Group 1 - The market is currently influenced by expectations of liquidity easing, with high anticipation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September, leading to a strong performance in global stock markets [1] - Domestic stock markets are experiencing an upward trend due to structural interest rate reductions, such as subsidies for personal consumption loans, and policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including "anti-involution" measures and birth subsidies [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached new highs, surpassing the 2021 peak, while the Shenzhen Component Index is in a recovery phase, indicating a strong market sentiment and increased investor confidence [2] Group 2 - The trading volume in the market has exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous week, with a significant number of stocks rising, particularly in the TMT sector [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the upper boundary of a weekly trading range, which has now turned from a resistance level to a support level, indicating a bullish trend [2] - There is a need to monitor for signs of volume stagnation as trading volume approaches 3 trillion yuan, which could indicate potential market corrections [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Maintain a relatively optimistic view of the convertible bond market in the second half of the year, due to the continuous imbalance between supply and demand and the "asset shortage" situation, the important role of convertible bonds in the asset portfolio, and the need to conduct high - low switching [1] - In the context of a slow - bull equity market, there are still opportunities for bank convertible bonds [1] - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, etc. [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Market Review 1.1. Equity Market Overall Rise, Most Industries Rise - From August 4th to 8th, the equity market rose overall, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 2.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, the ChiNext Index up 0.49%, and the CSI 300 up 1.23%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 1121.60 billion yuan to 16748.23 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 6.28% [6][8] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 25 industries closed up, with National Defense and Military Industry, Non - Ferrous Metals, etc. leading the gains [12] 1.2. Convertible Bond Market Overall Rise, Most Industries Fall - From August 4th to 8th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.31%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries closed up, with Automobile, Social Services, etc. leading the gains. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 895.48 billion yuan, a significant increase of 72.55 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 8.82% [15] - About 92.46% of convertible bond issues rose, and 51.72% of them had a gain of over 2% [15] - The overall market conversion premium rate rebounded, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 41.62%, an increase of 0.98 pct compared to last week [22] - 20 industries saw an expansion in the conversion premium rate, and 17 industries had an increase in conversion parity [28][33] 1.3. Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From August 4th to 8th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly gain. The trading volume of the convertible bond market increased by 5.07% week - on - week, and that of the underlying stock market decreased by 6.84% week - on - week. The trading sentiment of the underlying stock market was better [34] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Maintain the previous view, be relatively optimistic about the convertible bond market in the second half of the year. In the context of a slow - bull equity market, there are still opportunities for bank convertible bonds [1][38] - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, etc. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is strong with increased trading volume, and it is likely to rise in the short - term without more macro - negative factors [15]. - Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of US additional tariffs [13]. - The US dollar is expected to maintain short - term oscillations [19]. - The economic downward pressure on the US stock index futures needs more data for verification, and attention should be paid to the callback risk at the current level [23]. - The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the rhythm of its strengthening is relatively tortuous, so the long - position rhythm should be carefully grasped [25]. - The internal strength and external weakness of soybean meal remain unchanged, and its operating center is expected to steadily rise [27]. - The price of edible oils is expected to continue to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to remain firm in the short - term, but its continuous rebound is difficult [31]. - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate [32]. - The market speculation sentiment of coking coal and coke is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. - The short - term reverse spread structure of live pigs may continue, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1 and 9 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [37]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [42]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [45]. - For lead, it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions well; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [48]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, hold low - position speculative long positions in the short - term and manage positions well; pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities [51]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is settled, and stop profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [54]. - For copper, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. - For nickel, it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the market inflection point has not arrived, and attention should be paid to US policy changes [65]. - For crude oil, attention should be paid to the impact of US policies towards Russia on the market [68]. - For caustic soda, the downward space is limited [71]. - For pulp, the futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. - For PVC, the market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. - For urea, the futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. - For styrene, it is recommended to pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the position to narrow the styrene - pure benzene spread [77]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury auctioned $42 billion worth of 10 - year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 4.255% and a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.35 [11]. - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors and more secondary sanctions on Russia. Gold prices oscillated and declined, and the market is in a certain risk - aversion sentiment [12]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the progress of US additional tariffs, and gold will continue to oscillate [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29, 2025, to June next year [14]. - The margin trading balance has risen back above 2 trillion yuan. The A - share market is strong, and it is likely to rise in the short - term without more macro - negative factors [15]. - Investment suggestion: Allocate various stock indices evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips [17]. - Fed Governor Lisa Cook believes that the July employment report may indicate an inflection point in the US economy [18]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on India. The pressure on Russia to cease fire is increasing, but the actual effect is expected to be limited, and the US dollar will oscillate in the short - term [19]. - Investment suggestion: The US dollar will maintain short - term oscillations [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - There are ongoing differences in the US - Japan trade agreement, and there are new variables in tariffs, but companies investing in the US are exempted [20]. - Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on chip products, but companies that transfer production to the US will be exempted. Apple CEO Cook and Trump announced a new $100 billion investment plan [21]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. The overall tariff level remains around 18%, and the market risk appetite has recovered [22]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the callback risk at the current level [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 6, with a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan [24]. - The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the rhythm of its strengthening is relatively tortuous [24]. - Investment suggestion: Carefully grasp the long - position rhythm [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 12.257 million tons of soybeans in July, with an average daily export volume of 533,000 tons, a 9% increase compared to July last year [26]. - The supply - demand situation has little change. The CBOT soybean futures continue to oscillate weakly. The domestic import cost of soybeans supports the soybean meal futures price [26]. - Investment suggestion: The internal strength and external weakness remain unchanged, and the operating center of soybean meal is expected to rise [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 9.01% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons, while the production from August 1 - 5 decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [28][30]. - The edible oil market oscillated strongly, with soybean oil leading the rise. The palm oil production in August may be affected by rainfall, and the market is more inclined to long soybean oil [30]. - Investment suggestion: The price of edible oils is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - On August 6, the price of thermal coal in the northern port market was strong. The over - production inspection continues, and the coal price is expected to remain firm in the short - term, but the continuous rebound is difficult [31]. - Investment suggestion: The over - production inspection from August to September may lead to a 2 - 3% decline in quarterly coal production, and the coal price is supported but difficult to rebound continuously [31]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - ArcelorMittal Mexico temporarily shut down its blast furnace production due to equipment failures [32]. - The iron ore price oscillated. Pay attention to the impact of the military parade production restrictions in mid - August, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [32]. - Investment suggestion: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate [32]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal, and all 32,000 tons of the 1/3 coking raw coal on offer failed to be sold [34]. - The coking coal futures price rose sharply, mainly due to supply - side news. The market speculation sentiment is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. - Investment suggestion: The market speculation sentiment is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Shennong Group sold 174,700 pigs in July, with a sales revenue of 327 million yuan. Dabeinong sold 593,900 pigs in July, with a sales revenue of 984 million yuan [36][37]. - Group farms face the need to reduce the weight of pigs. The market's selling pressure remains unchanged, and the short - term reverse spread structure may continue [37]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the 9 - 1 and 9 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [37]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugarcane planting area as of August 1 reached 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 164,000 hectares compared to the same period last year [39]. - Yunnan's sugar sales rate as of the end of July was 80.68%, and Guangxi's was 85.01%. The market pricing has shifted to processed sugar [40][42]. - Investment suggestion: The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail sales of passenger cars in China from July 1 - 31 were 1.834 million units, a 7% increase compared to July last year [43]. - In late July, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises decreased by 7.4% month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [45]. - Investment suggestion: Adopt an oscillating trading strategy and be cautious with light positions [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 5, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.92 per ton, and Nyrstar received A$135 million in support from the Australian government [47]. - The Shanghai lead futures rose slightly. The short - term bottom is further confirmed, but attention should be paid to the risk of the weak fundamentals [48]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions well; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 5, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $13.16 per ton, and Nyrstar received A$135 million in support from the Australian government [49][50]. - The Shanghai zinc futures rebounded and oscillated. The LME inventory continued to decline, while the domestic social inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [50]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see on the long - short side, hold low - position speculative long positions in the short - term and manage positions well; pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - China's Salt Lake's 20,000 - ton - per - year lithium carbonate project was officially put into production and sales [52]. - Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China increased in July. The demand is growing, and the supply is uncertain. The futures price may be affected by news this week [53]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see before the risk event is settled, and stop profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - BHP and Lundin Mining plan to apply for investment incentives in Argentina for their Vicuna copper project [55]. - An Indonesian smelter's maintenance will affect the electrolytic copper output by about 20,000 tons [56]. - FireFly Metals' Green Bay copper - gold project in Canada has strong development potential [57]. - The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Ronghui International plans to acquire 60% of the equity of an Indonesian nickel mining company for $9.9 million [59]. - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warrant decreased. The nickel price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [61][62]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased for propane and increased for butane on August 6 [63]. - The US C3 inventory increased in the week ending August 1. The Panama Canal's passage situation has attracted market attention [64]. - Investment suggestion: The market inflection point has not arrived, and attention should be paid to US policy changes [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US announced additional tariffs on India due to its purchase of Russian energy [66]. - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending August 1. The oil price turned from rising to falling [67]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the impact of US policies towards Russia on the market [68]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong remained stable on August 6, with the supply increasing slightly and the demand being moderate [69]. - The caustic soda futures price is expected to decline, but the downward space is limited [71]. - Investment suggestion: The downward space is limited [71]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market was stable with only slight increases on August 6 [72]. - The pulp futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. - Investment suggestion: The futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased on August 6. The futures price oscillated strongly, but the spot market trading was light [73]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - China's urea enterprise inventory decreased by 3.24% week - on - week to 887,600 tons on August 6 [74]. - The urea futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. - Investment suggestion: The futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports decreased by 10,000 tons to 152,000 tons on August 6 compared to July 30 [76]. - The styrene - pure benzene spread is recommended to be narrowed, and attention should be paid to the profit - taking opportunity [77]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the position to narrow the styrene - pure benzene spread [77].

Group 1 - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.2% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.28% [1] - Military stocks experienced a significant surge, indicating that the movement is not merely a defensive strategy but driven by underlying factors [1][3] - The trading volume decreased to 932.3 billion, down by 75.7 billion from the previous day, suggesting a strategic maneuver by major players [3] Group 2 - The military sector's rally is attributed to two main factors: a substantial increase in orders and ongoing asset restructuring [3] - A report indicated that the procurement volume for hypersonic missile components has doubled year-on-year, with a notable contract worth 370 million as an initial indicator [3] - Central enterprise restructuring is imminent, with several companies in the AVIC group expected to suspend trading, hinting at accelerated military asset securitization [3] Group 3 - The rise in gold stocks, such as a 4.2% increase in Chifeng Gold, correlates with a 75% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [3] - The gaming sector is also showing signs of activity, suggesting potential policy relaxation regarding game approvals, as indicated by recent developments in the approval process for new games [3] Group 4 - The innovative pharmaceutical sector faced a sharp decline due to new pricing regulations implemented on August 8, which could lead to price cuts exceeding 50% for heart stents [4] - Institutions are preemptively reducing their positions in response to these regulatory changes, although there are indications that some leading companies may be undervalued [4] Group 5 - Key signals for the afternoon trading session include monitoring military stocks for increased order volumes, observing brokerage activity for potential market shifts, and identifying opportunities in the innovative pharmaceutical sector at historical low price-to-earnings ratios [5] - The current market environment suggests that policy-driven trading is becoming more significant than performance-based trading, with military stock movements serving as an initial indicator of broader market trends [5]