1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report indicates that short - term oil prices are likely to be volatile and on the stronger side, while in the medium - to - long - term, crude oil is expected to maintain a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus. The market has different expectations for OPEC's July production increase, with a 10 - 40 million barrels per day increase having a higher probability. The global refined oil products are seasonally accumulating inventory, and the US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years and continues to be depleted. The domestic refinery operations have stabilized, and gasoline and diesel are being further destocked, with refinery profits showing some recovery [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 13 - 19, 2025, WTI increased by $0.20 to $62.69, BRENT increased by $0.13 to $65.54, and DUBAI decreased by $0.04 to $64.03. The spread between WTI - BRENT increased by $0.07 to - $2.85, and the spread between DUBAI - BRT increased by $0.07 to $1.70. Other related spreads and prices also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - US President Trump mentioned that it might be time to sanction Russia, and the sanctions could push the situation forward. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister stated that if the US adheres to the "zero uranium enrichment" policy, the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US will fail. The EU may propose to the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $50 per barrel [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of May 9, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 528,000 barrels to 399.7 million barrels, and domestic crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels to 1.3387 million barrels per day. Crude oil exports decreased by 637,000 barrels per day to 336,900 barrels per day. The average four - week supply of US refined oil products decreased by 1.19% compared to the same period last year. In China, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries stabilized. The production of gasoline and diesel increased, with the production of both gasoline and diesel increasing in major refineries and decreasing in local refineries. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel in local refineries increased. Gasoline and diesel were slightly destocked, and the comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while that of local refineries decreased [5]. 3.4 Weekly Views - The oil price fluctuated this week. The US - Iran negotiations were deadlocked again over the weekend. The market still has different expectations for OPEC's production increase in July, with a 10 - 40 million barrels per day increase having a higher probability. Globally, refined oil products are seasonally accumulating inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years and continues to be depleted, and the shale oil drilling rig count is basically flat. The global refinery profit has recovered, and the US refinery operations continue to strengthen. The inventory of gasoline and diesel in the US is still low, and the cracking of gasoline and diesel is supported. It is expected to maintain a pattern of stronger gasoline and weaker diesel in the near term. Domestically, refinery operations have stabilized, gasoline and diesel are being further destocked, and refinery profits have recovered. In the short term, the oil price is expected to be volatile and on the stronger side, while in the medium - to - long - term, crude oil is expected to maintain a bearish pattern [6].

Core Viewpoint - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei expresses skepticism about the potential outcomes of the nuclear negotiations with the United States, indicating doubts about reaching an agreement [1] Group 1 - Khamenei believes that the nuclear talks with the U.S. will not yield results, stating, "I do not know" [1] - He criticizes the U.S. for its demands, particularly the request for Iran to halt uranium enrichment, labeling it as disrespectful [1]

Core Points - Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister announced that Iran has received proposals for the next round of nuclear negotiations with the United States and is currently reviewing them [1] Group 1 - Iran is in the process of examining proposals related to the upcoming nuclear talks with the U.S. [1]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价先跌后反弹，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘上涨 0.2 美元至 | | | | 62.69 美元/桶，涨幅 0.32%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.13 美元 | | | | 至 65.54 美元/桶，涨幅 0.2%。SC2507 以 465.4 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 4 元/桶，涨幅 0.87%。特朗普周一与俄罗斯总统普京通话后表示， | | | | 俄乌将"立即"开始就结束冲突进行谈判。克里姆林宫表示，两 | | | | 人并没有讨论俄方与乌克兰停火的潜在时间表。伊朗计划在 | | | | Kharg Island 出口码头增加了 200 万桶的原油储存能力，自 5 月 17 | | | 原油 | 日起生效。美伊核谈判的不确定性加剧市场波动。G7 于 2022 年 | 震荡 | | | 12 月达成价上限机制，禁止油轮运输交易价格高于每桶 60 美元 | | | | 的俄罗斯原油，并禁止相关实体为俄石油运输提供保 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others. It also presents fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities for each product [2]. - Market trends are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international political situations (e.g., the US - Iran nuclear negotiation), economic prospects, and industry policies. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The market is in a unilateral oscillatory state. The month - spread remains strong. It is recommended to hold the position of going long on PX and short on PTA, and pay attention to the regression of the PX - MX spread. The demand for PX is still tight due to the restart of several PTA devices. The PX - MX spread has expanded, and it is advisable to lock in the spread at high levels by shorting PX and going long on SC [5][7][9]. - **PTA**: With the planned maintenance of filament plants, the unilateral trend weakens. It is recommended to hold the position of shorting PTA processing fees, and the mid - term strategy for the month - spread is to go long at low levels. The short - term unilateral price may pull back [5][9]. - **MEG**: Similar to PTA, the planned maintenance of filament plants leads to a weakening of the unilateral trend, and the short - term price may pull back [5][8][10]. b. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the basis and some price spreads have changed. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the domestic butadiene market is slightly weak [12][13][14]. c. Synthetic Rubber - The upside space of synthetic rubber is narrowing. Although the fundamentals provide some support, the price is suppressed by the overall rubber sector. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber has decreased, and the butadiene port inventory has dropped significantly [16][19]. d. Asphalt - The asphalt market is in a high - level oscillation state. The production has decreased this week, and both the factory and social inventories have decreased. The BU - SC spread has stabilized after expansion, and the basis in Shandong has strengthened and then partially converged [20][21][35]. e. LLDPE - LLDPE is in a mid - term oscillatory state. The macro situation is favorable, and short - term plastic product exports support the market. However, the supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high. The demand is weak, and the future trend still faces pressure. Attention should be paid to the spread change between HDPE and LLDPE [36][37]. f. PP - The price of PP has slightly declined, and the trading volume is average. The futures market has weakened, affecting the spot market atmosphere. Downstream factories are cautious in purchasing [40][41]. g. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a short - term oscillatory state and will face pressure later. The price of alumina has risen, driving the caustic soda futures to be strong. However, there is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals. The downstream inventory - building situation determines the rebound sustainability. The supply is sufficient, and the export can provide support, but the possibility of foreign merchants' continuous high - level inventory - building in the off - season is low [43][44][45]. h. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the basis has decreased. The spot market is weak and stable, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [46][47][48]. i. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The spot price has small fluctuations, the supply pressure is large, and the demand has no obvious change [50]. j. Methanol - Methanol is under oscillatory pressure. The spot price has declined, and the port inventory has decreased last week. The mid - term trend is weak, and the pressure of imports from Iran after June is large. The MTO operating rate is high, and the inland spot is relatively strong, but the rebound space is limited due to weak coal prices [53][56][57]. k. Urea - Urea is in a high - level oscillatory state. The futures market will have a long - short game. The downward trend is supported by the improving macro - sentiment and the release of fertilizer demand in some regions. The upward space is restricted by policies. The factory price is expected to be firm, while the market price may adjust downward [58][60][61]. l. Styrene - Styrene is in a short - term oscillatory state. The weakness of pure benzene continues, and the current valuation of styrene is relatively high. The short - term accumulation of visible inventory takes time. The downstream production and sales have fluctuated, and attention should be paid to new orders and the replenishment intensity of 3S factories [62][63]. m. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price has declined, the supply is adjusted at a low level, and the downstream demand is tepid. The market is expected to be stable in the short term [64][66]. n. LPG - The cost of LPG fluctuates widely, and the civil gas is under short - term pressure. The futures prices of different contracts have changed, and the spreads have decreased. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have declined [69][75][76]. o. PVC - PVC is in a short - term oscillatory state and will face pressure later. The macro situation is favorable, but the fundamentals show high production and high inventory. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the high - inventory pressure persists. The export can only relieve the pressure temporarily, and the domestic demand is weak [79][80]. p. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is oscillating and rebounding with a narrow price adjustment. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weak, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market has slightly rebounded [83].

Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is advisable to take a predominantly bullish stance, while for stock index options, a long straddle strategy can be used to capture the trending market after the direction is determined [2][8] - The price of Treasury bond futures has declined, and short - term fluctuations may increase [9] - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [10] - The short - term outlook for methanol is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion process and the impact of the overall commodity market on the real estate chain [13] - After a phased rebound, polyolefins may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase in the future [14] - The fundamentals of coking coal continue to deteriorate, and for coke, there are expectations of a price cut [15] - Gold has entered a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [17] - Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state, while nickel may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [20][22] - The overall price of edible oils has declined, while protein meals are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [23][24] - Corn and corn starch may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [25][27] - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may increase, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [28] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - Oil prices dropped on Thursday due to expectations of a possible US - Iran nuclear agreement and an unexpected increase in US crude inventories last week [5] Domestic News - The CSRC will launch a new round of capital market reforms and introduce a package of policies to deepen the reforms of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Industry News - In early May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous period, with different trends in various regions [6] 2. Closing Comments on Major Varieties Financial Futures - Stock index futures declined, but short - term positive factors are present, and the valuation of major domestic indices is low [2][8] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, and short - term fluctuations may intensify due to various factors such as the progress of Sino - US talks and economic data [9] Energy and Chemical - Rubber prices declined, and the market is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory state due to factors such as the progress of the harvest season and inventory [10] - Crude oil prices dropped, and attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][11] - Methanol prices decreased slightly, but the short - term outlook is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash futures are in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion and the impact of the overall market [13] - Polyolefins are in a consolidation phase, and after a phased rebound, they may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase [14] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by macro - favorable factors, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face a cut [15] Metals - Gold and silver prices declined, and they are in a correction phase [17] - Copper, zinc, and other metal prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff negotiations and exchange rates [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [20] - Nickel prices declined slightly, but it may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [22] Agricultural Products - Edible oil prices declined due to factors such as the extension of the US clean fuel tax credit policy and the MPOB report [23] - Protein meal prices are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state due to factors such as the USDA report and Sino - US talks [24] - Corn and corn starch prices may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as imports and demand [25] - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as new orders [27] Shipping Index - The European container shipping line showed a strong performance, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions [28] 3. Daily Views on Varieties The report provides a summary of the views on various varieties, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances [29] 4. Daily Price Changes of Major Varieties The report presents the latest closing prices, price fluctuations, trading volumes, open interests, and other data of various varieties [30]

Group 1: Current Status of Iran's Nuclear Program - In 2018, the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, leading Iran to gradually increase its enrichment levels and stockpiles [1] - By the end of 2024, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had enriched uranium to 60%, approaching weapon-grade levels (≈90%) [1] Group 2: Indirect Negotiations between the US and Iran - The US demands the complete destruction of all Iranian centrifuges, requiring Iran to rely on imports for any future civilian nuclear energy needs [2] - Iran refuses to dismantle all its nuclear facilities, asserting its right to pursue peaceful nuclear activities [2] - The challenge of dismantling Iran's civilian nuclear facilities is highlighted by the irreversible knowledge Iran has gained in uranium enrichment, emphasizing the need for effective monitoring in future agreements [2] Group 3: Existing Enriched Uranium Stockpile - The US proposal includes the destruction or transfer of Iran's nuclear material stockpile to a third country, such as Russia [3] - Iran has opposed this proposal, preferring to retain its uranium reserves under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency to prevent a US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement [3] Group 4: Sanctions and Maximum Pressure - President Trump indicated that the US is willing to take military and economic actions if negotiations fail [4] - The White House National Security Advisor stated that each technical deadlock would be accompanied by new sanctions, with the US imposing eight rounds of sanctions against Iran from April to May [4] Group 5: Prospects for Negotiations - There is potential for an agreement where Iran commits to dismantling its high-enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for the US lifting all economic sanctions [5] Group 6: Internal and External Challenges - Iran's economy is severely impacted by international sanctions, with the rial plummeting below 1 million in early April [6] - A significant explosion occurred at Iran's largest commercial port during the third round of nuclear talks, possibly involving ballistic missile solid fuel [6] - There are significant divisions between hardliners and moderates within Iran, exacerbated by the port explosion [6] - Long-term sanctions, power shortages, and soaring inflation have led to near paralysis of the domestic economy, increasing public discontent [6] - Iran's allies have also faced severe setbacks, including devastating blows to Hamas and Hezbollah, and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria [6]

Conflict Situation - Israeli military issued evacuation warnings for three ports in Yemen [2] - Israeli forces conducted a drone strike on a vehicle in the Nabatieh region of Lebanon [2] - Yemeni military claimed to have used hypersonic ballistic missiles to attack Israel's Ben Gurion Airport [2] - Israeli military confirmed interception of a missile launched from Yemen [2] US-Iran Negotiations - US Treasury announced new sanctions against Iran [2] - Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Iran will hold a nuclear issue meeting with the UK, France, and Germany on the 16th [2] - Saudi Foreign Minister expressed full support for US-Iran nuclear negotiations, anticipating positive outcomes [2] - Trump expressed hope for an agreement with Iran, contingent on Iran ceasing support for terrorism and not possessing nuclear weapons [2] Regional Cooperation and Tensions - Saudi Crown Prince indicated that the Gulf Cooperation Council seeks to collaborate with the US to ease regional tensions [2] - Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding a ceasefire agreement in Gaza are ongoing in Qatar [2] - Saudi Foreign Minister noted that without a ceasefire in Gaza, it would be difficult to provide aid to the region [2] - US President Trump announced a historic economic commitment of $1.2 trillion in Qatar [2] - Trump mentioned exploring normalization of relations with the new Syrian government and potential future scenarios for Lebanon to escape Hezbollah control [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a complex trend [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, indicating a somewhat bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated, but the analysis shows a positive trend [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of international oil prices is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical negotiations [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term, but its long - term strength is expected to be limited [2] - The asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily due to increased supply and partial demand release [3] - The LPG market is in a low - level oscillation due to supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued the corrective rebound after the unexpected downgrade of Sino - US tariffs, with the S006 contract rising 0.79% [2] - Demand is resilient, and global light distillate product inventories have hit new lows, leading to a recovery in overseas gasoline cracking and comprehensive refining profits [2] - Last week, US API gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.287 million barrels [2] - The recent rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, but the upside space is not overly optimistic, with the oscillation range of Brent at $57 - 70 per barrel, WTI at $51 - 67 per barrel, and S0 at 430 - 510 yuan per barrel [2] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU stood out in the oil product futures, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widened [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side negatives under the OPEC+ production increase, and FU cracking is under pressure to fall from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has relatively low valuation and seasonal demand increase, but its long - term strength is limited due to factors such as the cancellation of the maintenance plan of the Nigerian Dangote refinery [2] Asphalt - The price of the asphalt main contract has returned above 3,500 yuan per ton, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [3] - Domestic asphalt supply has increased due to increased production by Sinopec refineries and the resumption or transfer of production by local refineries [3] - Demand in the northern market is gradually being released, while that in the southern market is suppressed by rainfall [3] - Refinery and trader inventories have slightly increased, but the overall inventory pressure is not large, and the asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily [3] LPG - Middle - East exports have increased, and international market procurement is cautious, with import costs expected to decline [4] - The PDH gross profit is still at a low level, and the operating rate dropped below 60% last week. The possibility of resumption of production after the tariff reduction should be noted [4] - The domestic price has declined due to concentrated imports in the first half of May and off - season pressure, and the market is in a low - level oscillation under supply pressure [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from May 7 - 13, 2025 - WTI crude oil rose from $58.07 to $63.67, an increase of $1.72 [3] - BRENT crude oil increased from $61.12 to $66.63, a gain of $1.67 [3] - DUBAI crude oil went up from $61.53 to $65.45, rising by $1.06 [3] - SC decreased by 2.80, OMAN increased by 1.12, and SC - BRT dropped by 1.98 [3] - Domestic gasoline price increased by 30.00, and domestic diesel price rose by 59.00 [3] - Japan naphtha - BRT decreased, Singapore 380 - BRT changed, and上期所FU - BRT decreased by 10.45 [3] -上期所BU - BRT decreased by 11.21, and HH natural gas decreased by 0.030 [3] - BFO increased by 1.06 [3] Group 3: Daily News - BofA: Saudi Aramco can quickly increase oil production at low cost, potentially raising daily output from about 9.4 million barrels to about 12 million barrels within weeks, with an estimated $12 billion increase in operating cash flow for every additional 1 million barrels per day [3] - Trump: Hopes to reach an agreement with Iran; if Iran refuses, will apply maximum pressure and reduce Iranian oil exports to zero [4] - Goldman Sachs: Given recent trade easing, expects an upward risk of about $3 - $4 per barrel for Brent/WTI crude oil prices in the remainder of 2025, with forecasts of $60/$56; 2026 price forecasts are $56/$52 [4] - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 9 was 4.287 million barrels, against an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.494 million barrels [4] - Iran - EU nuclear talks: Iran will hold talks with European parties in Istanbul on Friday. European powers may start the "snap - back sanctions" in August if no substantial agreement is reached [4] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US EIA Data for the Week Ending May 2 - US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day [6] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day [6] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a 0.46% decline [6] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, a 0.15% increase [6] - US EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.6 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.003 million barrels [6] - US EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels, against an expected - 1.271 million barrels and a previous value of 937,000 barrels [6] China's Market Situation - This week, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries declined. China's gasoline and diesel production decreased, with both major and local refineries seeing drops in production and sales rates, and none achieving production - sales balance. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased by over 4%. Major refineries' and local refineries' comprehensive profits rebounded [7] Group 5: Weekly View - After the holiday, oil prices rebounded slightly. With the Anglo - American trade agreement reached, the pessimistic expectations caused by previous tariffs eased, but the China - US tariff negotiation remains unclear. Geopolitically, the fourth round of Iran - US nuclear talks started in Oman [7] - Fundamentally, global oil products seasonally accumulate inventory. US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years. After the oil price decline, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs decreased rapidly, and the BW spread narrowed recently. Global refinery profits are recovering, but refineries are still in the maintenance period. US refinery operating rates recovered first, and US gasoline and diesel inventories are still low. With refining capacity elimination restricting supply, gasoline and diesel cracking has support, and it is expected to maintain a situation of stronger gasoline than diesel in the near term [7] - In China, refinery operating rates decreased slightly, gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly, and refinery profits recovered. In the short term, the rebound in refinery profits, the expected increase in refinery operating rates, the marginal improvement in macro - sentiment, and the decline in US production leading indicators support prices. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran - US talks achieve unexpected progress. In the long - term, crude oil remains in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [7]