伊朗副外长：伊朗已收到关于举行下一轮美伊核谈判的提议，目前正在进行审查。 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价先跌后反弹，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘上涨 0.2 美元至 | | | | 62.69 美元/桶，涨幅 0.32%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.13 美元 | | | | 至 65.54 美元/桶，涨幅 0.2%。SC2507 以 465.4 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 4 元/桶，涨幅 0.87%。特朗普周一与俄罗斯总统普京通话后表示， | | | | 俄乌将"立即"开始就结束冲突进行谈判。克里姆林宫表示，两 | | | | 人并没有讨论俄方与乌克兰停火的潜在时间表。伊朗计划在 | | | | Kharg Island 出口码头增加了 200 万桶的原油储存能力，自 5 月 17 | | | 原油 | 日起生效。美伊核谈判的不确定性加剧市场波动。G7 于 2022 年 | 震荡 | | | 12 月达成价上限机制，禁止油轮运输交易价格高于每桶 60 美元 | | | | 的俄罗斯原油，并禁止相关实体为俄石油运输提供保 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others. It also presents fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities for each product [2]. - Market trends are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international political situations (e.g., the US - Iran nuclear negotiation), economic prospects, and industry policies. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The market is in a unilateral oscillatory state. The month - spread remains strong. It is recommended to hold the position of going long on PX and short on PTA, and pay attention to the regression of the PX - MX spread. The demand for PX is still tight due to the restart of several PTA devices. The PX - MX spread has expanded, and it is advisable to lock in the spread at high levels by shorting PX and going long on SC [5][7][9]. - **PTA**: With the planned maintenance of filament plants, the unilateral trend weakens. It is recommended to hold the position of shorting PTA processing fees, and the mid - term strategy for the month - spread is to go long at low levels. The short - term unilateral price may pull back [5][9]. - **MEG**: Similar to PTA, the planned maintenance of filament plants leads to a weakening of the unilateral trend, and the short - term price may pull back [5][8][10]. b. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the basis and some price spreads have changed. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the domestic butadiene market is slightly weak [12][13][14]. c. Synthetic Rubber - The upside space of synthetic rubber is narrowing. Although the fundamentals provide some support, the price is suppressed by the overall rubber sector. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber has decreased, and the butadiene port inventory has dropped significantly [16][19]. d. Asphalt - The asphalt market is in a high - level oscillation state. The production has decreased this week, and both the factory and social inventories have decreased. The BU - SC spread has stabilized after expansion, and the basis in Shandong has strengthened and then partially converged [20][21][35]. e. LLDPE - LLDPE is in a mid - term oscillatory state. The macro situation is favorable, and short - term plastic product exports support the market. However, the supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high. The demand is weak, and the future trend still faces pressure. Attention should be paid to the spread change between HDPE and LLDPE [36][37]. f. PP - The price of PP has slightly declined, and the trading volume is average. The futures market has weakened, affecting the spot market atmosphere. Downstream factories are cautious in purchasing [40][41]. g. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a short - term oscillatory state and will face pressure later. The price of alumina has risen, driving the caustic soda futures to be strong. However, there is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals. The downstream inventory - building situation determines the rebound sustainability. The supply is sufficient, and the export can provide support, but the possibility of foreign merchants' continuous high - level inventory - building in the off - season is low [43][44][45]. h. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the basis has decreased. The spot market is weak and stable, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [46][47][48]. i. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The spot price has small fluctuations, the supply pressure is large, and the demand has no obvious change [50]. j. Methanol - Methanol is under oscillatory pressure. The spot price has declined, and the port inventory has decreased last week. The mid - term trend is weak, and the pressure of imports from Iran after June is large. The MTO operating rate is high, and the inland spot is relatively strong, but the rebound space is limited due to weak coal prices [53][56][57]. k. Urea - Urea is in a high - level oscillatory state. The futures market will have a long - short game. The downward trend is supported by the improving macro - sentiment and the release of fertilizer demand in some regions. The upward space is restricted by policies. The factory price is expected to be firm, while the market price may adjust downward [58][60][61]. l. Styrene - Styrene is in a short - term oscillatory state. The weakness of pure benzene continues, and the current valuation of styrene is relatively high. The short - term accumulation of visible inventory takes time. The downstream production and sales have fluctuated, and attention should be paid to new orders and the replenishment intensity of 3S factories [62][63]. m. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price has declined, the supply is adjusted at a low level, and the downstream demand is tepid. The market is expected to be stable in the short term [64][66]. n. LPG - The cost of LPG fluctuates widely, and the civil gas is under short - term pressure. The futures prices of different contracts have changed, and the spreads have decreased. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have declined [69][75][76]. o. PVC - PVC is in a short - term oscillatory state and will face pressure later. The macro situation is favorable, but the fundamentals show high production and high inventory. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the high - inventory pressure persists. The export can only relieve the pressure temporarily, and the domestic demand is weak [79][80]. p. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is oscillating and rebounding with a narrow price adjustment. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weak, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market has slightly rebounded [83].

Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is advisable to take a predominantly bullish stance, while for stock index options, a long straddle strategy can be used to capture the trending market after the direction is determined [2][8] - The price of Treasury bond futures has declined, and short - term fluctuations may increase [9] - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [10] - The short - term outlook for methanol is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion process and the impact of the overall commodity market on the real estate chain [13] - After a phased rebound, polyolefins may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase in the future [14] - The fundamentals of coking coal continue to deteriorate, and for coke, there are expectations of a price cut [15] - Gold has entered a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [17] - Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state, while nickel may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [20][22] - The overall price of edible oils has declined, while protein meals are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [23][24] - Corn and corn starch may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [25][27] - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may increase, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [28] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - Oil prices dropped on Thursday due to expectations of a possible US - Iran nuclear agreement and an unexpected increase in US crude inventories last week [5] Domestic News - The CSRC will launch a new round of capital market reforms and introduce a package of policies to deepen the reforms of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Industry News - In early May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous period, with different trends in various regions [6] 2. Closing Comments on Major Varieties Financial Futures - Stock index futures declined, but short - term positive factors are present, and the valuation of major domestic indices is low [2][8] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, and short - term fluctuations may intensify due to various factors such as the progress of Sino - US talks and economic data [9] Energy and Chemical - Rubber prices declined, and the market is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory state due to factors such as the progress of the harvest season and inventory [10] - Crude oil prices dropped, and attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][11] - Methanol prices decreased slightly, but the short - term outlook is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash futures are in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion and the impact of the overall market [13] - Polyolefins are in a consolidation phase, and after a phased rebound, they may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase [14] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by macro - favorable factors, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face a cut [15] Metals - Gold and silver prices declined, and they are in a correction phase [17] - Copper, zinc, and other metal prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff negotiations and exchange rates [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [20] - Nickel prices declined slightly, but it may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [22] Agricultural Products - Edible oil prices declined due to factors such as the extension of the US clean fuel tax credit policy and the MPOB report [23] - Protein meal prices are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state due to factors such as the USDA report and Sino - US talks [24] - Corn and corn starch prices may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as imports and demand [25] - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as new orders [27] Shipping Index - The European container shipping line showed a strong performance, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions [28] 3. Daily Views on Varieties The report provides a summary of the views on various varieties, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances [29] 4. Daily Price Changes of Major Varieties The report presents the latest closing prices, price fluctuations, trading volumes, open interests, and other data of various varieties [30]

金十数据整理：美伊核谈判梳理——特朗普的"极限施压"终于压垮了伊朗的脊梁？ 2. 2024年底，国际原子能机构报告称伊朗已将浓缩铀丰度提高至60%，达到武器级水平，仅略低于核武 器级（≈90%）。 二、美伊四轮间接谈判（4.12-5.11） 1. 伊朗核浓缩计划 ①美国要求伊朗必须彻底销毁所有离心机，未来民用核能所需的浓缩铀完全依赖进口。 ②伊朗方面则表示不接受销毁伊朗全部核设施，坚决捍卫开展和平核活动的权力。 ③伊朗民用核设施拆除计划面临挑战：美国军备控制协会防扩散政策主任表示，拆除基础设施并不能抹 掉伊朗已经获得的铀浓缩知识。如有必要，伊朗能够迅速重建其核计划。这种认知的不可逆性强调了监 测应成为今后有效协议的重点。 2. 现有的浓缩铀库存 ①美国的提议要求伊朗销毁或向第三国（如俄罗斯）转移其核材料库存。 ②据报道，伊朗已对美国的提议表示反对，称更愿意在国际原子能机构的监督下保留其铀储备，以确保 美国不会再度退出伊核协议。 一、伊朗核计划现况 1. 2018年，美国退出《联合全面行动计划》，伊朗开始逐步提高浓缩级别与库存水平。 三、制裁与极限施压 1. 美国总统特朗普表示，如果谈判失败，美国愿意采取军事和 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a complex trend [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, indicating a somewhat bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated, but the analysis shows a positive trend [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of international oil prices is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical negotiations [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term, but its long - term strength is expected to be limited [2] - The asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily due to increased supply and partial demand release [3] - The LPG market is in a low - level oscillation due to supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued the corrective rebound after the unexpected downgrade of Sino - US tariffs, with the S006 contract rising 0.79% [2] - Demand is resilient, and global light distillate product inventories have hit new lows, leading to a recovery in overseas gasoline cracking and comprehensive refining profits [2] - Last week, US API gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.287 million barrels [2] - The recent rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, but the upside space is not overly optimistic, with the oscillation range of Brent at $57 - 70 per barrel, WTI at $51 - 67 per barrel, and S0 at 430 - 510 yuan per barrel [2] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU stood out in the oil product futures, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widened [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side negatives under the OPEC+ production increase, and FU cracking is under pressure to fall from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has relatively low valuation and seasonal demand increase, but its long - term strength is limited due to factors such as the cancellation of the maintenance plan of the Nigerian Dangote refinery [2] Asphalt - The price of the asphalt main contract has returned above 3,500 yuan per ton, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [3] - Domestic asphalt supply has increased due to increased production by Sinopec refineries and the resumption or transfer of production by local refineries [3] - Demand in the northern market is gradually being released, while that in the southern market is suppressed by rainfall [3] - Refinery and trader inventories have slightly increased, but the overall inventory pressure is not large, and the asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily [3] LPG - Middle - East exports have increased, and international market procurement is cautious, with import costs expected to decline [4] - The PDH gross profit is still at a low level, and the operating rate dropped below 60% last week. The possibility of resumption of production after the tariff reduction should be noted [4] - The domestic price has declined due to concentrated imports in the first half of May and off - season pressure, and the market is in a low - level oscillation under supply pressure [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from May 7 - 13, 2025 - WTI crude oil rose from $58.07 to $63.67, an increase of $1.72 [3] - BRENT crude oil increased from $61.12 to $66.63, a gain of $1.67 [3] - DUBAI crude oil went up from $61.53 to $65.45, rising by $1.06 [3] - SC decreased by 2.80, OMAN increased by 1.12, and SC - BRT dropped by 1.98 [3] - Domestic gasoline price increased by 30.00, and domestic diesel price rose by 59.00 [3] - Japan naphtha - BRT decreased, Singapore 380 - BRT changed, and上期所FU - BRT decreased by 10.45 [3] -上期所BU - BRT decreased by 11.21, and HH natural gas decreased by 0.030 [3] - BFO increased by 1.06 [3] Group 3: Daily News - BofA: Saudi Aramco can quickly increase oil production at low cost, potentially raising daily output from about 9.4 million barrels to about 12 million barrels within weeks, with an estimated $12 billion increase in operating cash flow for every additional 1 million barrels per day [3] - Trump: Hopes to reach an agreement with Iran; if Iran refuses, will apply maximum pressure and reduce Iranian oil exports to zero [4] - Goldman Sachs: Given recent trade easing, expects an upward risk of about $3 - $4 per barrel for Brent/WTI crude oil prices in the remainder of 2025, with forecasts of $60/$56; 2026 price forecasts are $56/$52 [4] - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 9 was 4.287 million barrels, against an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.494 million barrels [4] - Iran - EU nuclear talks: Iran will hold talks with European parties in Istanbul on Friday. European powers may start the "snap - back sanctions" in August if no substantial agreement is reached [4] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US EIA Data for the Week Ending May 2 - US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day [6] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day [6] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a 0.46% decline [6] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, a 0.15% increase [6] - US EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.6 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.003 million barrels [6] - US EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels, against an expected - 1.271 million barrels and a previous value of 937,000 barrels [6] China's Market Situation - This week, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries declined. China's gasoline and diesel production decreased, with both major and local refineries seeing drops in production and sales rates, and none achieving production - sales balance. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased by over 4%. Major refineries' and local refineries' comprehensive profits rebounded [7] Group 5: Weekly View - After the holiday, oil prices rebounded slightly. With the Anglo - American trade agreement reached, the pessimistic expectations caused by previous tariffs eased, but the China - US tariff negotiation remains unclear. Geopolitically, the fourth round of Iran - US nuclear talks started in Oman [7] - Fundamentally, global oil products seasonally accumulate inventory. US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years. After the oil price decline, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs decreased rapidly, and the BW spread narrowed recently. Global refinery profits are recovering, but refineries are still in the maintenance period. US refinery operating rates recovered first, and US gasoline and diesel inventories are still low. With refining capacity elimination restricting supply, gasoline and diesel cracking has support, and it is expected to maintain a situation of stronger gasoline than diesel in the near term [7] - In China, refinery operating rates decreased slightly, gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly, and refinery profits recovered. In the short term, the rebound in refinery profits, the expected increase in refinery operating rates, the marginal improvement in macro - sentiment, and the decline in US production leading indicators support prices. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran - US talks achieve unexpected progress. In the long - term, crude oil remains in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [7]

Group 1 - Current volatility in the oil market reflects a transitional phase between the old order and new rules, indicating a struggle for energy discourse power among major global players [1][4] - The effectiveness of soft power strategies, such as diplomatic mediation and strategic negotiations, is crucial for countries to gain an advantage in the energy power shift [1][4] - The ongoing crisis in South Asia demonstrates the dual role of soft power in crisis management, where military actions undermine regional trust while diplomatic interventions can restore dialogue [1] Group 2 - The recent progress in US-China trade negotiations highlights the strategic use of soft power tools, with China shifting the focus from unilateral pressure to mutual benefits [2] - China's approach to expanding cooperation lists aims to increase the cost of confrontation for the US, showcasing a typical soft power counter-strategy [2] - The dispute between Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan over oil production reveals the complexities of soft power in the energy sector, with Kazakhstan's overproduction challenging OPEC's internal constraints [2] Group 3 - China's adjustment in crude oil import structure and the penetration of clean energy illustrate the rise of non-traditional soft power, positioning China as a key player in global supply-demand rebalancing [3] - The potential outcomes of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations could redefine the geopolitical soft power landscape in the Middle East, depending on the negotiation strategies employed by both parties [3] - The EU's push for regulatory standards in trade negotiations signifies an attempt to reshape global energy trade rules through normative power expansion [3]

4. 鲁比奥将于5月11日至14日陪同特朗普访问沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔。 5. 哈马斯11日晚发表声明说，将释放拥有美国和以色列双重国籍的被扣押人员艾丹·亚历山大。 6. 第四轮美伊间接谈判结束，伊朗称最新核谈"艰难但富有成效"，美方称新一轮会谈有望很快举行。 金十数据整理：中东局势跟踪（5月12日） 8. 伊朗外长：与美国的会谈比之前几轮更为认真。现在双方对彼此的观点有了更好的理解。德黑兰的铀 浓缩项目没有商量的余地。 9. 阿曼外长：伊朗与美国的第五轮核谈判将在双方都与各自领导层进行磋商后举行。伊美第四轮会谈提 出"有益且具有原创性"想法。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 1. 本轮巴以冲突已致加沙地带52829人死亡。 2. 以色列外长表示希望在六月初左右访问德国。 3. 以军称在叙军事行动仍在持续，已加强在当地部署。 7. 以色列外长：以色列完全支持美国总统特朗普关于加沙援助的计划。单方面承认巴勒斯坦国的倡议只 会适得其反。 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the articles revolves around President Trump's threat to impose secondary sanctions on any country purchasing Iranian oil, coinciding with the postponement of the fourth round of indirect US-Iran negotiations [1][2] - Trump stated that all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products must cease immediately, warning that any country or individual continuing such purchases would lose eligibility for any form of commercial dealings with the US [1] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that in October 2022, China absorbed nearly 90% of Iran's crude oil and condensate exports, highlighting the significant reliance of Iran's economy on oil exports [1][2] Group 2 - The negotiations aim to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of some economic sanctions, marking a critical turning point in US-Iran relations after decades of hostility [2] - The Iranian negotiating team is led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while the US representative is Middle East envoy Steve Vitkoff, indicating high-level diplomatic engagement [2] - The current geopolitical climate is tense, with ongoing military actions by the US against Iranian-supported Houthi forces in Yemen, further complicating the situation [2]