Core Insights - Federal Reserve official Kashkari indicates that both the non-farm payroll report and ADP employment data reflect a softening labor market in the United States [1] Group 1 - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness as indicated by recent employment reports [1]

金十数据8月1日讯，美国7月份非农就业人数增长低于预期，失业率小幅上升，这为美国劳动力市场带 来了潜在的麻烦信号。7月新增就业岗位7.3万个，高于6月份的1.4万个，但远低于市场预期的11万个。6 月和5月的新增就业岗位总数被大幅下调，较之前公布的水平合计减少了25.8万个。经过修正后，6月的 新增非农就业人数仅有1.4万人，5月的非农就业人数仅有1.9万人。 美国7月非农仅新增7.3万人 前两个月被大幅下修 ...

Core Insights - The ADP report indicates that the U.S. private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, significantly exceeding market expectations of 76,000, marking the largest month-over-month increase since April [1][3] - Despite the positive July data, overall hiring remains below last year's average, highlighting an uneven recovery in the U.S. labor market [3][5] - The report reflects cautious attitudes among businesses amid economic uncertainty, with mixed signals regarding the strength of the labor market [5][6] Employment Data - The leisure and hospitality sector saw the most significant job growth, adding 46,000 positions, followed by the financial sector with an increase of 28,000 jobs [3] - Conversely, the education and healthcare services sector experienced job losses for the fourth consecutive month, shedding 38,000 positions [3][5] - The manufacturing sector added only 7,000 jobs, while construction grew by 15,000, indicating varied recovery rates across different industries [5] Wage Growth - Wage growth remained stable in July, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 7% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [3] - This trend suggests that despite a slowdown in hiring, competition in the labor market is still supporting wage levels [3] Economic Outlook - Economists express that the labor market's performance reflects businesses' cautiousness in the face of economic uncertainty, with July's rebound not fully alleviating concerns about potential economic slowdown [5][6] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show an increase of about 100,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.2% [5] - The strong ADP report may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term, as sustained wage growth above inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance [6]

内部分歧加大，降息或延后 美联储7月议息会议点评 全文共1918字，阅读大约需要5分钟 文 财信研究院 宏观团队 胡文艳 段雨佳 伍超明 事件：北京时间2025年7月31日凌晨，美联储公布了7月份议息会议纪要。 正文 7月美联储选择继续暂停降息，维持"适度限制性"的利率水平，源于不考虑关税影响的通胀仍高于目标、就业处于目标水 平。展望后续，9月降息不确定性较高，但年内降息窗口犹存。 鲍威尔会后发言表明，美联储是否重启降息，关键取决于两点：一是美国经济（尤其是私人部门需求）是否会超预期放 缓，进而传导至劳动力市场，导致劳动力需求显著减弱，推动失业率明显上升。二是关税对通胀的影响，会否从一次性 推升演变为持续性压力。鲍威尔会后发言认为，"更高的关税已开始更明显地反映在某些商品的价格上，但其对经济活动 和通胀的总体影响仍有待观察。一个合理的基本情况是，对通胀的影响可能是短暂的——反映价格水平的一次性变动。 但通胀影响也有可能更持久，这是一个需要评估和管理的风险"，因此通胀是否持续仍需更多时间观察。但有一点值得注 意的是，下半年美国物价的适度温和回升，本身并不会成为美联储降息的掣肘，正如6月议息会议所示，尽管美联储当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has significantly reduced expectations for a rate cut in September, with the likelihood dropping from over 65% to around 40% following Chairman Powell's comments [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged this year [1]. - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2]. - Powell indicated that it is premature to assert whether the Fed will cut rates in September, emphasizing the need for more economic data before making a decision [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing growth, with the Fed downgrading its previous assessment of "steady growth" and acknowledging increased risks to employment goals [7]. - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI increasing by 2.9%, slightly below expectations [8]. - Job vacancies decreased from 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, supporting the view that the labor market is gradually cooling [9]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed's future monetary policy remains uncertain, heavily reliant on upcoming employment and inflation data [11]. - Powell highlighted the importance of timing in policy actions, warning against acting too late or too early in response to inflation [12]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may delay rate cuts longer than the market expects, with potential cuts occurring later in the year [12][13]. Group 4: Political and Economic Influences - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with concerns about political interference potentially impacting monetary policy decisions [14]. - Historical precedents suggest that a lack of independence can lead to detrimental economic outcomes, emphasizing the need for the Fed to maintain its autonomy [14].

北京时间7月31日凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示，今年上半年经济增长有所放缓，但美联储完全有能力应对 潜在的发展。"与去年的2.5%相比，2025年上半年的增长放缓至1.2%。增长放缓主要反映了消费支出的 放缓。"美联储主席表示，"我们认为，目前的货币政策立场使我们能够及时应对潜在的经济发展。" 谈及关税的影响，美联储主席表示，"更高的关税已经开始体现在一些商品的价格上，但对经济活动和 通货膨胀的总体影响还有待观察。" 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9-2的方式决定维持利率区间在4.25%-4.50%不变。美联储主席鲍威尔 表示，可以在等待关税政策是否推高通胀的同时保持利率稳定。他透露，尚未就9月可能的政策调整"作 出任何决定"。受此影响，美股尾盘跳水，美元指数逼近100大关，国际金价走弱。 美联储重申等待关税影响明朗化 决议声明称，尽管净出口的波动影响了数据，但最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的速度扩张。失 业率仍然很低，劳动力市场状况稳健，通货膨胀率有所上升。 FOMC重申，寻求在长期内实现最大就业率和2%的通货膨胀率。经济前景的不确定性有所增加，委员 会关注其 ...

市场目前预计，北京时间周五公布的美国劳工部更全面的就业报告将显示，7月非农就业人数增加11万 人，失业率预计将从6月的4.1%上升至4.2%。 ADP数据公布后，CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.9%（与数据公布前一 致），降息25个基点的概率为2.1%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为37.9%（数据公布前为34%），累 计降息25个基点的概率为60.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.3%。 纽约梅隆投资管理首席经济学家Vincent Reinhart指出，美联储启动降息需同时满足三个关键条件：就业 市场显现疲软迹象、通胀确定回归目标路径，以及决策层对上述判断具备充分信心。该机构预计美联储 可能在12月会议降息25个基点，当前至年底前实施降息的概率仍低于50%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京7月30日电（王姝睿）周三公布的美国ADP全国就业报告显示，美国7月私营部门就业人数 增长超出预期。尽管如此，分析称，美国劳动力市场整体放缓的趋势仍在延续。 数据显示，美国7月ADP就业人数新增10.4万人，预期7.5万人，前值-3.3万人。不同行业之间出现差异 化表现，建筑业就业人数 ...

美国财经网站Investinglive评美国"小非农"：7月ADP就业数据进一步证实了初请数据和非农就业报告所 显示的情况，美国劳动力市场依然保持弹性，几乎没有疲软迹象。 ...

由贸易逆差收窄驱动的增长，掩盖了消费支出温和及商业投资停滞等核心领域的疲软迹象，这让一份看似强劲的报告，实则预示着美国 经济的潜在动能正在放缓。 媒体对经济学家的调查显示，市场普遍预期美国第二季度GDP将实现2.4%的年化增长，彻底扭转第一季度0.5%的萎缩局面。瑞银在最新 发布的财报中，将美国第二季度GDP增长预测大幅上调至2.6%， 尽管GDP读数或许乐观，经济学家们却普遍警告，应将焦点放在"对国内私人购买者的最终销售额"这一关键指标上。该指标被视为衡量 美国本土真实经济健康状况的"晴雨表"，而其增速预计将从第一季度1.9%的水平放缓。 贸易数据扭曲，美国二季度GDP或现反弹 贸易和库存这两个最具波动性的GDP组成部分，正连续第二个季度主导着经济数据的走向。 瑞银现预测第二季度实际GDP年化增长率为2.6%，远高于第一季度-0.5%的萎缩。然而，这一增长几乎完全由净出口的巨大贡献所驱动， 预计将为GDP增长贡献高达4.1个百分点。 今晚20:30公布的美国第二季度GDP数据，或许会在账面上显示强劲反弹，但这份数据很可能具有相当大的误导性。 这一现象的背后是进口额的急剧下降。继第一季度净出口拖累经济4.6个 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. labor market remains resilient as the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, 2025, was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. - Despite Powell completing his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a more accommodative stance. Given that international silver prices tend to perform strongly when the Fed's stance is dovish, the current precious metals strategy recommends maintaining a bullish outlook, with a focus on long opportunities in silver. The reference trading range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.78% to 778.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.55% to 9369.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.16% to 3368.10 dollars/ounce, while COMEX Silver rose 0.27% to 39.33 dollars/ounce [2]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.43%, and the U.S. Dollar Index was at 97.47. Among global stock indices, the Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.70%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.07%, the NASDAQ Index rose by 0.18%, the London FTSE 100 climbed 0.85%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index advanced 1.59% [2][4]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold Data**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) dropped 0.77% to 3371.30 dollars/ounce, with a 19.07% decline in trading volume to 20.67 million lots, and a 1.22% increase in open interest to 44.85 million lots. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) decreased 1.79% to 778.74 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 17.55% to 43.78 million lots, and open interest fell 3.92% to 42.44 million lots. The inventory increased 1.74% to 29.36 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 5.64% to 52.875 billion yuan [6]. - **Silver Data**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.59% to 39.29 dollars/ounce, open interest (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased 5.33% to 17.15 million lots, and inventory decreased 0.08% to 15483 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) dropped 1.12% to 9386.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 19.57% to 159.93 million lots, and open interest fell 3.04% to 96.46 million lots. The inventory increased 0.02% to 1188.72 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 4.12% to 24.444 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Price - Related Charts and Analysis - **Gold**: There are multiple charts showing the relationship between COMEX Gold price and the U.S. Dollar Index, real interest rates, volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold and Shanghai Gold, as well as the price difference between London Gold and COMEX Gold, and Au(T + D) and Shanghai Gold [8][11][16][18]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, there are charts depicting the relationship between COMEX Silver price and volume, open interest, the near - far month structure of COMEX Silver and Shanghai Silver, and the price difference between London Silver and COMEX Silver, and Ag(T + D) and Shanghai Silver [27][29][31]. 3.4 Fund Position and Price Relationship - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver managed funds and their prices, indicating the influence of fund positions on precious metals prices [40]. 3.5 ETF Holdings - The total holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 2.29 tons to 957.09 tons, and the total holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15207.82 tons [4]. 3.6 Internal - External Price Difference - **Gold**: On July 24, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 0.74 yuan/gram (3.23 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.64 yuan/gram (7.12 dollars/ounce). - **Silver**: The SHFE - COMEX price difference was 346.62 yuan/kilogram (1.51 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 372.20 yuan/kilogram (1.62 dollars/ounce) [50].