智通财经记者 | 刘婷 这在一定程度上解释了利率路径点阵图中值指向的明年仅有一次降息。不过，大部分经济学家的预期比点阵图来得激进，他们预计2026年美联储降息2-3 次，主要依据是通胀趋近目标、劳动力市场疲软以及更偏鸽派的美联储决策层。 高盛、摩根士丹利、美国银行、富国银行、野村、巴克莱等机构预计，2026年美联储降息2次，政策利率将降至3.00%-3.25%。其中，野村表示，明年6月和9 月将各迎来1次降息；高盛则预计两次降息分别落在明年3月和6月。 花旗集团、中国银河证券预计2026年美联储降息3次，共75个基点。其中，花旗预测降息时间分别在1月、3月及9月。此外，东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲表 示，在明年11月中期选举结束前，或出现至少3次降息。 对美联储来说，关税通胀一直是悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。今年以来白宫不断升级关税税率，根据世界贸易组织（WTO）和国际货币基金组织（IMF）8 月公布的数据，美国平均关税税率已达20.1%，创20世纪10年代初期以来的最高水平（今年早些时候出现过的一次短暂飙升除外），和今年1月美国总统唐 纳德·特朗普就职时2.4%的有效关税税率形成鲜明对比。 不过，由于进口商吸收了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits has decreased, indicating a potential resilience in the U.S. labor market despite ongoing economic uncertainty [1] Group 1: Unemployment Benefits - The decline in new unemployment benefit claims suggests a strengthening labor market [1] - This trend may reflect employers' reluctance to lay off workers amid economic challenges [1] - The current labor market dynamics could influence future economic policies and consumer confidence [1]

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 美国劳动力市场下行压力持续。据央视新闻报道，美国劳工部12月 16日公布的数据显示，今年11月美国失业率升至4.6%，为2021年10月以来的最高水平。 此外，11月新增就业岗位6.4万个，而10月净减少10.5万个岗位，为2020年12月以来最大降幅，其中联邦 政府就业减少16.2万个岗位，为2010年6月以来最大。数据公布后，美国利率期货市场略微上调了美联 储在2026年1月政策会议上降息的概率。 需要注意的是，美联储主席鲍威尔上周在议息会议后的新闻发布会上警告称，美联储需谨慎评估就业数 据，通胀和劳动力市场部分指标的数据收集方式存在技术性问题，可能导致数据失真——不仅波动性更 大，更存在扭曲现象。他认为月度就业人数增长可能平均被高估了6万人，实际就业增长更接近每月减 少2万人。 美国劳工部在统计就业时，必须估算新公司成立带来的新增岗位，以及公司倒闭造成的岗位消失。但这 部分数据无法实时准确统计，只能依靠模型推算，而在当前经济环境下，这种模型很可能把真实的就业 情况算得过于乐观。 在一系列数据出炉后，美联储货币政策迷雾仍未消散，2026年1月降息还需要更疲软的数据，一切 ...

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than anticipated, indicating a cooling labor market[5] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations[15] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remained stable at approximately 62.5%, while the unemployment rate increased, suggesting a divergence in labor market conditions[22] - The share of permanent job losers decreased, while the proportion of temporary and re-employed workers increased, indicating a shift towards short-term employment[28] - Job openings in October were 7.67 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.6%, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics in the labor market[43] Federal Reserve Outlook - The urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is low, despite signs of a slowing job market[7] - Fed officials anticipate that three rate cuts in 2025 will support the labor market, reducing the immediate need for further cuts[52] - Inflation risks remain, and the Fed is cautious about further rate reductions that could exacerbate inflationary pressures[55] Economic Projections - The Fed's internal forecasts suggest a temporary rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%-4.7% in 2025, but overall stability is expected in the long term[53] - The baseline scenario indicates that the Fed may implement 1-2 rate cuts in 2026, primarily in the third quarter[55]

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is around 14.439 yuan per gram, showing a slight decline of 0.09% from the opening price of 14.446 yuan per gram, with a daily high of 14.527 yuan and a low of 14.242 yuan, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1] - Traders are closely awaiting the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report and retail data, which are expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] - The market currently anticipates a 76% probability of an interest rate cut by January 2026, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, highlighting the market's expectations regarding future monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The daily chart indicates that silver prices are currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with slight downward pressure, as the DMI shows a downtrend, suggesting a wait for bullish momentum to recover [2] - Support levels for silver are identified between 13.50 and 14.20, while resistance levels are noted between 14.50 and 15.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming employment report is crucial for investors, with expectations of a modest increase in non-farm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges [1][2]. Employment Data - The median forecast predicts a 50,000 increase in non-farm employment for November, while the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5%, the highest level since 2021 [1][2]. - The report will include key indicators derived from household surveys, such as the unemployment rate, but will lack October's data due to the government shutdown, which has introduced significant uncertainty [2][8]. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) extended the data collection period to ensure sufficient information gathering, but cannot retroactively adjust October's data, which has been canceled [2][10]. Job Market Dynamics - Recent employment data has shown volatility, with expectations that the November report will not break this trend, as economists predict job growth will range from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 127,000 [7]. - The anticipated job growth is expected to be driven primarily by the healthcare and private education sectors [7]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The BLS will not release October's unemployment rate, but economists expect November's rate to exceed September's 4.4% due to low hiring activity and an increase in layoffs [8]. - The reduction in federal government employees may exert upward pressure on the unemployment rate, potentially reaching 4.6% [8]. Additional Economic Indicators - Alongside the employment report, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release October retail sales data, with expectations of a modest 0.1% growth in overall retail sales, indicating stable consumer demand [9]. - The upcoming consumer price index (CPI) for November will also face challenges due to insufficient data collection during the government shutdown, with October's CPI report being canceled [9][10].

Core Insights - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, to be released next Tuesday, will provide a comprehensive view of the labor market by including data from October and November, ending months of uncertainty for policymakers and investors [1] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates to a three-year low amid significant internal disagreements, with officials debating whether to prioritize high inflation or a weak job market [1] Employment Data Predictions - Citigroup economists predict a decrease of approximately 45,000 jobs in October, followed by an increase of 80,000 jobs in November, suggesting that the rebound may be more related to seasonal data adjustments rather than a genuine improvement in worker demand [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, contrasting with a Reuters survey that anticipates the rate to remain at 4.4% [1] - The Federal Reserve's own quarterly forecast indicates a median unemployment rate of about 4.5% by the end of this year [1]

据摩根大通私人银行，随着美国就业市场趋于稳定或改善，美联储降息力度可能会比市场预期的要小。 全球投资策略师Weiheng Chen在一份报告中写道，预计FOMC将在2026年再进行一次幅度25个基点的降 息，明显少于目前市场预期的约50个基点。降息最终是否会实现，可能取决于劳动力市场的情况。该机 构认为，美国劳动力市场将趋于稳定甚至改善。 ...

全球投资策略师Weiheng Chen在一份报告中写道，预计FOMC将在2026年再进行一次幅度25个基点的降 息，明显少于目前市场预期的约50个基点。 降息最终是否会实现，可能取决于劳动力市场的情况。 该机构认为，美国劳动力市场将趋于稳定甚至改善。 责任编辑：王永生 据摩根大通私人银行，随着美国就业市场趋于稳定或改善，美联储降息力度可能会比市场预期的要小。 据摩根大通私人银行，随着美国就业市场趋于稳定或改善，美联储降息力度可能会比市场预期的要小。 全球投资策略师Weiheng Chen在一份报告中写道，预计FOMC将在2026年再进行一次幅度25个基点的降 息，明显少于目前市场预期的约50个基点。 降息最终是否会实现，可能取决于劳动力市场的情况。 该机构认为，美国劳动力市场将趋于稳定甚至改善。 责任编辑：王永生 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $4206 per ounce, with a lack of follow-up buying support despite expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - Geopolitical uncertainties from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The focus remains on the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts and Chairman Powell's statements following the policy meeting [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices showed a strong rebound after hitting a low of $4169, with a daily close at $4108, indicating a bullish outlook [4] - The key support level is identified at $4195, which has turned from a resistance level to a strong support [4] - The suggested trading strategy is to maintain a bullish stance, focusing on buying on dips and monitoring resistance levels between $4230 and $4250 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - WTI crude oil is trading around $58.40, with market sentiment cautious due to a strong dollar and recovering supply [5] - Recent employment data from the U.S. indicates a resilient labor market, which may support the dollar and impact commodity prices [5] - The market is closely watching inventory data, as significant reductions could lead to a rebound in oil prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The current trend for oil is bearish, with prices testing the support level around $56 [6] - The MACD indicator suggests that bearish momentum is dominant, and the short-term outlook remains downwards [6] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on selling on rebounds, with resistance levels identified between $59.5 and $60.5, and support levels between $57.0 and $56.0 [6]