Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，5月美国非农新增数据略超预期、但前值再现下修，家庭调查口径下的劳动参与率下降，或反映出移民政策变 化的影响，同时劳动力供给减少压制了失业率的反弹，整体上劳动力市场仍在温和降温的正轨方向。4月美国非农新增数据略超预期，家庭调查口径下 的数据细节亦反映出劳动力市场仍具韧性，工资增速放缓。由于本周ADP数据低于预期加重了海外市场对于就业快速恶化的担忧情绪，风险解除后，美 债收益率曲线抬升，美元指数走强，美股三大指数出现反弹，海外市场对美联储6月降息的预期概率降温。 具体来看： 1）5月非农新增13.9万人，小幅高于市场预期，但前月数据再现下修，4月非农新增数据从初值17.7万人下修至14.7万人，3月数据从18.5万人再度下修至 12万人，合计下修9.5万人4月非农新增17.7万人，高于市场预期的13.8万人，同时前月数据明显下修，3月非农新增数据从初值的22.8万人下修至18.5万 人，2月数据从11.7万人再度下修至10.2万人，合计下修5.8万人。 2）分行业来看，政府部门录得-0.1万人（前值0.1万人），其中联邦政府录得-2.2万人（前值-1.3万人），州政府录得0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown in U.S. job growth in May due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, while stable wage growth may keep the economy on track and potentially delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations of 125,000 [4] - The healthcare sector contributed 62,000 new jobs, and the leisure and hospitality industry added 48,000, accounting for nearly 80% of the new positions [4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, with 625,000 people leaving the labor force, indicating a lack of confidence in the job market [4][5] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4%, surpassing market predictions, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, slightly above the Fed's sustainable inflation target of 3.7% [4] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has slowed to 135,000 from 232,000 in January [4] Labor Market Concerns - There are signs of pressure from the trade war, with 7.24 million people reported as unemployed, the highest level since the U.S. emerged from the pandemic in 2021 [5] - The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% in April to 62.4%, primarily affecting the prime working-age population [5] - The employment-population ratio fell from 60.0% in April to 59.7%, indicating a decline in the economy's job creation capacity [5] - Experts suggest that the decline in labor participation may mask marginal deterioration in employment and the labor market [6] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Following the employment data release, President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, criticizing the current monetary policy as a "disaster" [7] - The Fed's current benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, described as "moderately restrictive" [7] - There is ongoing debate on whether tariff-induced inflation is transitory or persistent, with some Fed officials believing it to be a one-time price level increase [7][8] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts by the Fed in September and December, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for June 17-18 [8]

周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，由于特朗普政府进口关税的不确定性，全美5月份的就业增长有所放 缓，但稳健的工资增长应能使经济扩张保持正轨，并可能使美联储推迟恢复降息。 利率市场仍预期美联储今年将降息2次。 数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再次施压美联储降息，然而市场定价显示，今年美联储的政策空间依然相 对有限。 非农数据暗藏隐患 在周三公布的ADP私营就业数据降至两年低位后，政府版的就业指标——非农就业报告依然表现稳定。 5月新增就业岗位13.9万个，好于市场预期的12.5万个。 分部门看，医疗部门贡献了6.2万个新工作岗位，休闲和酒店行业新雇佣了4.8万名员工，这两个行业创 造了上月近80%的职位。相比之下，制造业、零售业、政府的就业人数有所下降。 失业率连续第三个月稳定在4.2%，因为62.5万人退出劳动力市场，这表明对就业市场缺乏信心。调查显 示，消费者对在被解雇的情况下找到工作的前景不太乐观。小时工资大幅增长0.4%，超过了市场预 测，同比增长率为3.9%，略高于美联储的可持续通胀预期薪资增速3.7%。 值得注意的是，前两个月数据被大幅下修，这是贸易战酝酿并开始的阶段，可能显示作为经济基石的有 弹性的美国劳动 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months, which is better than market expectations but below the 12-month average of 149,000 jobs per month [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department significantly revised down the employment data for March and April, reducing the combined job growth for these two months by 95,000 [1] - Employment growth in May was primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, which collectively added 126,000 jobs [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing and retail sectors, which are closely tied to trade, showed signs of weakness, with manufacturing losing 8,000 jobs and retail shedding 6,500 jobs [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in May was $36.24, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The cautious sentiment surrounding the May employment data reflects businesses' uncertainty regarding trade policies and economic growth [2]

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]

Core Viewpoint - OCBC maintains its expectation of three rate cuts in 2023, each by 25 basis points, but delays the first cut from Q2 to Q3 due to the current economic conditions [1][4]. Inflation Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, lower than the expected 0.3%, with the year-on-year increase in overall CPI decreasing from 2.4% to 2.3% [2]. - Housing prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing to over half of the overall increase, while energy prices rose, offsetting declines in gasoline prices [2]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth remains at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation in core services, while core goods prices have turned positive with a growth of 0.13% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, which is above market expectations but not robust [3]. - The unemployment rate remains at a cyclical high of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month [3]. - The job vacancy rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a gradual easing of labor market tightness, with the job-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 1.02, suggesting potential impacts on unemployment if vacancies continue to decline [3]. Market Expectations - Market concerns about a U.S. recession have significantly eased, with the probability of recession dropping from 65% in early April to 38% currently [4]. - Interest rate futures reflect a cooling of rate cut expectations, with only 54 basis points of cuts priced in for the year, down from over 100 basis points in April [4]. - The expectation for a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting has been fully priced out, with only a 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [4]. Treasury Yield Predictions - OCBC has slightly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields due to the delayed rate cut expectations and improved market sentiment, but maintains a medium-term outlook of moderate decline [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the U.S. economy is not in a full recession, there are clear signs of slowing growth and persistent core inflation [5]. - Future economic data will be closely monitored, particularly regarding labor market conditions and service inflation, which could trigger policy adjustments [5].