当地时间11月20日 ，美国劳工统计局发布9月非农就业数据，数据显示 美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人 ，市场预估为增加5.2万人，前值 为增加2.2万人。除这一核心就业数据外，劳工统计局还指出，美国失业率小幅攀升至4.4%，创下2021年10月以来的最高水平。当月平均时薪 环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨3.8%，而此前对应的预期涨幅分别为0.3%和3.7%。 就业报告发布后，美国短期利率期货上涨。就业报告发布后，美国短期利率期货上涨。 英国金融时评美国9月非农报告指出，美国劳动力市场意外反弹，这将使美联储关于下月是否降息的决策更趋复杂。周四公布的9月新增非农 人口录得11.9万人，不仅高于机构调查经济学家预测的5万人，也显著高于8月修正后的2.2万人。失业率则从8月的4.3%升至4.4%，创2021年 以来新高。这份报告是自美国联邦政府创纪录停摆导致官方数据中断发布以来，美国劳工统计局发布的首个经济健康指标。意外向好的数据 将强化联邦公开市场委员会鹰派成员的立场，他们始终警告美联储不宜过快降息。尽管美国总统特朗普长期施压美联储降息，但央行内部已 出现深刻分歧：一派主张在12月会议继续降息以支撑劳动力市场， ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization before the government shutdown, with September non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000 [1] - The unemployment rate for September stands at 4.4%, higher than both expectations and the previous value of 4.3%, marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Average hourly wages in September increased by 3.8% year-over-year, surpassing the expected steady rate of 3.7%, but the month-over-month increase of 0.2% fell short of expectations and was lower than the previous month's 0.3% [1] Summary by Category Employment Data - September non-farm employment increased by 119,000, more than double the forecast of 51,000 [1] - August's job additions were revised down from an increase of 22,000 to a decrease of 4,000, with a total downward revision of 33,000 jobs for July and August combined [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since October 2021, exceeding both prior values and market expectations [1] Wage Growth - Average hourly wages rose by 3.8% year-over-year in September, above the expected 3.7%, but the month-over-month growth of 0.2% was below expectations and a decrease from the previous month's 0.3% [1]

新华财经北京11月20日电美国联邦储备委员会周三（11月19日）公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，美 联储官员就12月份是否进一步降息出现显著分歧。市场对降息的押注缩减，美国国债收益率普遍上涨1- 2个基点。 在10月货币政策会议上，美联储公开市场委员会以10票赞成、2票反对的结果通过降息25个基点的决 议。反对者中一名成员投票支持降息50个基点，一名成员投票支持维持利率不变。 据"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos，美联储官员10月会议上对下次会议是否应该降息的分歧加深，持"在 本年度剩余时间里保持目标区间不变可能是适当的"观点的与会者人数多于支持在12月进一步降息的人 数。"越来越多的政策制定者（可能形成微弱多数）对12月降息感到不安。"Nick Timiraos表示，"12月 份的投票结果看来会非常胶着。" 截至19日尾盘，10年期美债收益率涨1.55个基点，报4.13%。2年期美债收益率涨1.48个基点，报 3.59%。CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率由前一日的接近五成，下降至略超三 成。 美联储在10月货币政策会议结束后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3. ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term trend of precious metals such as gold and silver may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 0.17% to $4067.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.34% to $50.54 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.32% at 929.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.51% to 11949 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - From the four - week period ending November 1st, US companies laid off an average of 2500 workers per week, indicating an improvement in the US labor market compared to the previous week's average reduction of 11250 people [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 48.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 51.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 49.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 31.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 18.4% [1] Market Logic - The so - called "inflation hawks" of the Fed have made intensive statements recently, making the decision on whether to conduct the third rate cut this year in December uncertain. The data shows that the probability of a rate cut in December is less than 50%. On November 18, the US dollar index rose slightly. Affected by the change in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, COMEX gold and silver both experienced a bottom - hunting rebound, and may be volatile in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term trend may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, indicating that the current interest rate levels are closer to neutral rather than overly tight, suggesting limited room for significant rate cuts in the near future [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that after two rate cuts this year, the policy rate is now closer to neutral, with inflation around 3% still above the 2% target, necessitating continued efforts to combat high inflation while supporting the labor market [4]. - Other Fed officials echoed similar sentiments, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing the need to maintain restrictive rates to apply downward pressure on inflation, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noting that approximately 3% inflation remains high [4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly mentioned that after two rate cuts this year, the balance between the goals of full employment and price stability has returned to a more balanced state, but service sector inflation has not shown sustained decline, warranting a more restrained market expectation for further easing [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the cautious remarks from Fed officials, futures market pricing adjusted, with traders' bets on a December rate cut dropping from over 60% to around 50%, indicating a cooling confidence in the prospect of a rate cut [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with ADP reporting a private sector job increase of only 42,000 in October, while Challenger reported a significant rise in announced layoffs to 153,000, the highest for October since 2003 [6]. - Consumer sentiment is also weakening, with the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index falling to 50.3, the lowest since 2022, reflecting deteriorating expectations regarding job and income prospects [6]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex situation with incomplete data due to prolonged government shutdowns, relying more on private and survey data to assess economic conditions [7][8]. - Musalem acknowledged the importance of restoring credible and sustainably updated official data, but noted that the Fed can still form reasonable judgments about economic conditions through financial market rates and other indicators [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US private - sector employment data is cooling, with the ADP small - non - farm employment in October decreasing by 45,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low. There is uncertainty in economic assessment due to potential missing economic data. In the US, the stock market is divided, the 10Y Treasury yield fell to 4.06%, the US dollar index weakened to 99.5, gold prices rose, copper prices rose, and oil prices rose by over 1% [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets falling to 2 trillion. The micro - cap and dividend styles are still dominant over the technology style. In the short term, there may be new highs, but there is a risk of subsequent adjustments. In the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market is oscillating, waiting for the release of October financial and economic data. The central bank emphasizes strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [3]. - For precious metals, the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts boosted gold and silver prices. The US Senate's bill to end the government shutdown and the expected weak economic data may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates in December. The demand for gold is expected to be strong this year and next, and the price may reach $4,700 per ounce [4]. - For copper, the market is cautious. The weak US labor market requires continuous interest rate cuts. The global mine supply is tight, and domestic social inventories are decreasing marginally. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7]. - For aluminum, the macro - narrative is positive. The end of the US government shutdown, the resumption of economic data, and the dovish shift in the Fed's stance are positive. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and aluminum prices will continue to be strong and volatile [8]. - For alumina, the supply pressure persists, and the price remains weak. The production capacity is high, but the market expects potential production cuts in winter, so the price is oscillating at a low level [9][10]. - For zinc, the market is worried about the deterioration of the US labor market. The LME has low inventories and a strong structure, which supports zinc prices. However, weak domestic consumption limits the upside space, and zinc prices will oscillate [12]. - For lead, the LME is strong, driving up the price of Shanghai lead. The supply shortage in the domestic market has been alleviated, and Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term but may face a pull - back risk [13][14]. - For tin, the weak US employment and the slow recovery of Indonesian tin exports support tin prices. However, the volatile macro - sentiment and high raw material prices may lead to a pull - back in tin prices [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is contracting marginally, and the demand is weakening. The price will oscillate in the short term [16][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the current fundamentals are strong, but there are risks of increased imports and weakening demand in the future. The price will fluctuate widely [18][19]. - For nickel, the weak US labor market boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is positive for nickel prices. The high cost of nickel ore limits the downside space, but the high inventory weakens the fundamentals [20]. - For soda ash and glass, there are maintenance plans for soda ash production lines, and the glass production line's daily melting volume is weakening. Both lack demand - driven price increases and may oscillate at a low level [21][22]. - For steel products, the supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [23][24]. - For iron ore, port inventories are increasing, and the price will oscillate weakly [25]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, the South American production is expected to be good. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and the price will oscillate and adjust [26][27]. - For palm oil, the weak US employment data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The supply of rapeseed oil is tightening, and the price of vegetable oil has rebounded, driving up the prices of other oils. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - The trading data of various metal contracts on November 11, including closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented. For example, SHFE copper closed at 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, with a trading volume of 156,444 lots and an open interest of 553,109 lots [30]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On November 11, SHFE copper's main contract price was 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day. LME copper's price was 10,840 US dollars/ton, down 34.5 US dollars. SHFE copper's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 42,964 lots, and LME copper's inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons [32]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel's main contract price was 119,380 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. LME nickel's price was 15,025 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts decreased by 241 lots to 32,292 lots, and LME nickel's inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons [34]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc's main contract price was 22,675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. LME zinc's price was 3,069 US dollars/ton, down 16.5 US dollars. SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts increased by 649 lots to 70,518 lots, and LME zinc's inventory increased by 400 tons to 35,300 tons [34]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead's main contract price was 17,440 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. LME lead's price was 2,067 US dollars/ton, up 10.5 US dollars. SHFE lead's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,981 lots, and LME lead's inventory increased by 24,525 tons to 226,725 tons [34]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum's continuous third - month contract price was 21,670 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. LME aluminum's price was 2,879.5 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 lots, and LME aluminum's inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 545,225 tons [34]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina's main contract price was 2,816 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The national average spot price of alumina was 2,869 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [34]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin's main contract price was 288,180 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. LME tin's price was 36,695 US dollars/ton, up 515 US dollars. SHFE tin's warehouse receipts decreased by 112 lots to 5,582 lots, and LME tin's inventory decreased by 20 tons to 3,015 tons [36]. - **Precious Metals**: SHFE gold remained unchanged at 948.88 yuan/gram, and COMEX gold remained unchanged at 4,116.30 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver remained unchanged at 11,880 yuan/kg, and COMEX silver remained unchanged at 50.744 US dollars/ounce [36]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: SHFE rebar's main contract price was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The main contract price of iron ore futures was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China increased by 380.41 million tons to 15,819.49 million tons [36][38]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The main contract price of coke futures was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan. The main contract price of coking coal futures was 1,213 yuan/ton, down 52.5 yuan [38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price of lithium carbonate futures was 8.46 yuan/ton, up 0.01 yuan. The spot price of electric - grade lithium carbonate was 8.2 yuan/ton, up 0.10 yuan [38]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures was 9,180 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The average price of East China's 553 oxygen - containing silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [38]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean's main contract price was 1,126.75 US cents/bushel, down 0.75 US cents. The main contract price of soybean meal futures was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract price of rapeseed meal futures was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. government shutdown has affected the release of non - farm payroll data, and the private sector's weekly job losses indicate pressure on the U.S. labor market. The passage of the temporary appropriation bill in the Senate is likely to resolve the government shutdown issue, and the release of funds from the Treasury cash account will support market liquidity, which in turn will support gold and silver prices. Given that the Fed's current easing cycle is in its early stage and the market prices in a 67.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December FOMC meeting, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of SHFE gold is 927 - 968 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of SHFE silver is 11575 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - SHFE gold dropped 0.01% to 944.18 yuan/gram, SHFE silver rose 0.74% to 11921.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was at 4133.20 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was at 51.08 dollars/ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.13%, and the U.S. dollar index was 99.46 [2] - ADP's estimate showed that private - sector weekly job losses were 11,200 in the month ending on the 25th of last month, significantly lower than the estimated 42,000 job increases in October [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 0.24% to 4133.20 dollars/ounce, trading volume dropped 1.23% to 23.96 million lots, and the CFTC - reported open interest rose 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. The inventory decreased 0.41% to 1169 tons [5] - LBMA gold: The closing price rose 2.41% to 4090.25 dollars/ounce [5] - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 1.38% to 948.88 yuan/gram, trading volume dropped 5.06% to 45.73 million lots, and open interest rose 1.71% to 35.57 million lots. The inventory remained unchanged at 89.62 tons, and the settled funds increased 3.11% to 53.996 billion yuan [5] - AuT + D: The closing price rose 1.44% to 946.50 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 23.13% to 63.05 tons, and open interest dropped 0.35% to 248.98 tons [5] - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract rose 1.33% to 51.08 dollars/ounce, and the CFTC - reported open interest rose 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. The inventory decreased 0.11% to 14885 tons [5] - LBMA silver: The closing price rose 2.76% to 50.04 dollars/ounce [5] - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract rose 1.37% to 11,880.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume dropped 26.87% to 137.01 million lots, and open interest rose 1.76% to 72.53 million lots. The inventory decreased 2.97% to 591.88 tons, and the settled funds increased 3.15% to 23.265 billion yuan [5] - AgT + D: The closing price rose 1.19% to 11,865.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 1.74% to 725.11 tons, and open interest rose 0.15% to 4243.002 tons [5] Strategy and Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 67.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December FOMC meeting and a 32.6% probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of SHFE gold is 927 - 968 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of SHFE silver is 11575 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [3] Price Difference Data - Gold: On November 11, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 3.00 yuan/gram or 13.12 dollars/ounce. The SGE - LBMA price difference was 4.16 yuan/gram or 18.18 dollars/ounce [54][59] - Silver: On November 11, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 224.16 yuan/kilogram or 0.98 dollars/ounce. The SGE - LBMA price difference for Ag(T + D) was 137.33 yuan/kilogram or 0.60 dollars/ounce [54]

Core Insights - The U.S. government is expected to end its record shutdown, but investors face deteriorating labor data, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential decline in non-farm payrolls for October, marking the first negative growth in nearly three years [1][2] Group 1: Government Shutdown and Data Collection - The Senate passed a bill to end the government shutdown, allowing key economic data to be released soon [1] - The Labor Department faces unprecedented challenges due to interrupted data collection during the shutdown, leading to potential permanent loss of some October data [2] Group 2: Labor Market Indicators - Private sector indicators show a sharp deterioration in the labor market, with announced layoffs in October reaching 153,000, nearly three times the number from the previous year and the highest for the month since 2003 [3][6] - Average weekly job losses in the private sector were 11,250 in the last four weeks of October, indicating struggles in job creation [7] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its employment growth tracking indicator for October down to 50,000, a significant decrease from 85,000 in September [10] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The interruption of data and the bleak labor market outlook place the Federal Reserve in a difficult position regarding interest rate decisions [15] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 20%-25% chance of a significant rise in the unemployment rate over the next six months, up from 10% six months ago [15][19] - The chaotic data release situation and negative private indicators complicate the risk assessment for investors, suggesting increased market volatility in the coming weeks [19]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market data is currently lacking due to the government shutdown, which has delayed the release of the October non-farm payroll report, impacting the Federal Reserve's decision-making for potential interest rate cuts in December [1] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The October non-farm payroll report was not released as scheduled due to the government shutdown, marking the second consecutive absence of this report [1] - Economists had previously anticipated a reduction of 60,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.5% [1] - A report from an employment consulting firm indicated that U.S. companies announced over 153,000 layoffs in October, the highest level for this period in over 20 years and the most layoffs in a single month for the fourth quarter since 2008 [1]

Monetary Policy Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.0%, totaling a 50 basis point reduction for the year[3] - The Fed will stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, allowing MBS to mature and reinvesting in short-term Treasury securities[12] Economic Outlook - Powell indicated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, creating a challenging situation[3] - Current economic indicators suggest moderate expansion, but the government shutdown has delayed the release of various economic data[3] Inflation Analysis - Powell highlighted three factors affecting inflation: tariffs pushing up goods prices, declining housing services, and stable core non-housing services due to slightly restrictive monetary policy[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to persist until spring 2026, with potential for a rebound in core inflation due to tariff transmission and base effects[4] Labor Market Insights - The weakening labor market is attributed to a significant decline in labor supply and a decrease in labor demand, influenced by tighter immigration policies and previous tariff impacts[4] - Recent tax cuts from the Inflation Reduction Act and recent rate cuts may help restore labor demand over time[4] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet reduction pace has slowed to $5 billion per month since March, with Powell stating further reductions are not meaningful[12] - The decision to stop balance sheet reduction aims to avoid upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields and alleviate government debt burdens[16] Risks and Uncertainties - There is uncertainty regarding the extent and speed of future rate cuts by the Fed, which may be less than market expectations[16] - The potential for inflationary pressures from tariffs may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates aggressively in the short term[16]