1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report tracks the fundamentals of zinc, showing various price, volume, and inventory data, and mentions news about the Fed's stance on interest - rate cuts and the resulting limited information for economic assessment [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Zinc Market Data - **Price Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,825 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,042 dollars/ton, up 1.25%. The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil (tax - included) was 4,250 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,005 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,455 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; zinc oxide (≥99.7%) was 21,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 162,377 lots, down 18,168 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 13,813 lots, up 4,405 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 127,778 lots, down 14,622 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 224,342 lots, up 1,685 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount Data**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; Guangdong 0 zinc premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin 0 zinc premium was - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. LME CASH - 3M premium was 67.56 dollars/ton, up 17.56 dollars/ton; import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory Data**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 57,221 tons, down 2,043 tons; LME zinc inventory was 38,200 tons, down 1,150 tons. LME zinc cancelled warrants were 10,325 tons, down 1,000 tons; LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 10,645 tons, down 204 tons [1] - **Import Profit and Loss Data**: The spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 3,178.54 yuan/ton, down 167.49 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of SHFE zinc continuous third contract was - 2,589.37 yuan/ton, down 90.93 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - According to the Fed minutes, most officials believe it may be appropriate to continue easing this year, while a few could have supported not cutting rates in September. The "New Fed Wire" reported that Fed officials were divided on the rate - cut magnitude, and the government shutdown has led to delayed economic data release, limiting the Fed's information for economic assessment [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend intensity is in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend during the National Day holiday, with four consecutive days of gains, despite a slight decline after reaching around 4059 [1] Group 1: Fundamentals - The Federal Reserve has strong expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated by the end of October and a 78% probability of another cut in December, which weakens the dollar's attractiveness [2] - The U.S. government shutdown has increased uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the lack of official economic data [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have previously supported gold prices, while central banks and ETFs have significantly increased their gold holdings, with global ETF inflows reaching $64 billion in 2025 and a record $17.3 billion in September alone [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 88, indicating an overbought condition, bullish sentiment remains strong, supported by multiple favorable factors including continued Fed easing and global economic uncertainty [4] - The daily moving averages indicate a strong bullish structure, with key support levels at approximately 3970 for the 5-day moving average and 3900 for the 10-day moving average [6] - The current price action suggests a potential adjustment phase, with a focus on the resistance level around 4059, while remaining cautious of further upward movement after any short-term corrections [9]

Core Viewpoint - Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, predicts that gold prices may exceed $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to the Federal Reserve gradually easing policies amid rising inflation and continued buying of gold by central banks and private funds [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have recently reached record highs, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by discussions around de-dollarization and investor fear of missing out (FOMO) [1] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts due to a possible U.S. government shutdown has led investors to increase their exposure to gold [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Warnings - Melek warns that gold appears to be in an overbought state, indicating that any concerns regarding the pace of Federal Reserve easing or increased market volatility could trigger significant short-term corrections, potentially reversing the gains seen since late summer [1]

Group 1 - The bond market is accustomed to fluctuations, but the significance of these changes is uncertain and may depend on the duration of the trends observed [1][2] - Recent weak ADP employment report, the weakest since March 2023, along with a negative revision to the previous month, has led to market reactions [2] - Two-year yields have dropped more significantly than ten-year yields, indicating a notable shift in the yield curve dynamics [3][6] Group 2 - The decline in two-year yields highlights concerns regarding labor market weakness, which is a critical factor for the Federal Reserve's inflation strategy [4] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve easing have increased, with probabilities exceeding 100% for the next meeting, suggesting a pricing in of more than 25 basis points [5] - The yield curve is steepening as short-term rates have decreased more sharply, indicating a significant market adjustment [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs strategists believe that global stock markets are likely to continue their upward trend until the end of the year, supported by the resilience of the US economy, strong valuations, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] - The strategy team, led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann, has upgraded their stock allocation rating to "overweight" for the next three months, citing strong earnings growth and a lack of recession backdrop as key factors [1] - The team suggests buying on market pullbacks before the end of the year, as recession risks are considered stable and manageable [1] Group 2 - Optimistic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's timely interest rate cuts to avoid recession have driven global stock markets to historical highs, with Goldman Sachs raising its S&P 500 index target to 6800 points, anticipating a further 2% increase in the next three months [3] - Analysts expect a 7.1% year-on-year increase in S&P 500 component earnings for Q3, marking the smallest growth in two years, as the focus shifts to the upcoming earnings season [3] - Goldman Sachs warns of potential risks from growth falling short of expectations or interest rate fluctuations in the short term, while maintaining a "neutral" stance on regional allocation and recommending international asset diversification to mitigate risks [3]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread declines on September 23, with major contracts for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and caustic soda dropping over 3% [1][4] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1446.23 points, down 11.21 points or 0.77% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1996.42 points, down 15.47 points or 0.77% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, continue to reach historical highs, driven by strong investment demand and safe-haven buying amid global uncertainties [2] - As of September 23, both Shanghai gold and silver contracts rose nearly 2%, with prices hitting record highs since their listing [2] - The largest global gold ETF's holdings have surpassed 1000 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022 [2] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The market for red dates and apples showed mild increases, with red dates rising by 0.65% and apples by 0.39% on September 23 [3] - The rebound in red dates and apples is limited compared to previous years, with weak market sentiment and high old stock inventories affecting price movements [3] - The apple market is supported by early-ripening varieties, but uncertainties regarding late-ripening apple quality and pricing are constraining market fluctuations [3] Group 4: Caustic Soda and Related Products - Caustic soda contracts fell over 3% due to weak demand and lower spot prices, with the average market price in Shandong dropping to 817.5 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from early September [5] - The market is characterized by a weak reality versus strong expectations dynamic, with supply pressures continuing [5] - There is a potential for future demand from downstream aluminum production, which may influence market conditions [5]

Group 1 - Economists had predicted a recession in the past few years, but it has not materialized despite multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3][4][7] - The yield curve inversion has historically been a reliable recession indicator, with the longest inversion occurring from summer 2022 to summer 2023, yet no recession followed [5][6] - The ISM manufacturing activity index has been in contraction for 26 months, indicating potential economic weakness, but a recession has not yet occurred [5][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's strong monetary tools and near-zero interest rates have distorted the bond market, complicating recession predictions [7] - The U.S. federal budget deficit has reached levels typically seen only during severe recessions, raising questions about future government spending capacity in a real downturn [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Ringgit is expected to remain stable against the US Dollar due to the Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, which is putting pressure on the Dollar [1] Exchange Rate Outlook - The current exchange rate of the Malaysian Ringgit against the US Dollar is reported at 4.2040, with a rise of 0.24% [1] - Economists predict that the exchange rate will trade within the range of 4.15 to 4.20 Ringgit per Dollar in the near term [1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, further weakening the Dollar [1] Market Focus - The market is closely watching weak labor data to support expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is a key focus; a strong reading could diminish hopes for imminent rate cuts [1] - Housing data will also be monitored for signs that may influence the pace of the Federal Reserve's easing measures [1] Long-term Projections - By the end of 2025, the exchange rate is expected to settle at 4.08 Ringgit per Dollar [1] - Short-term resistance for the Dollar/Ringgit pair is seen at 4.21 Ringgit, while support is at 4.19 Ringgit [1] - The Dollar/Ringgit pair has recently increased by 0.3%, reaching 4.2080 Ringgit [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, adjusting the policy rate to 4.0–4.25%, with indications of potential further easing in the future [1] - Market strategist Zhao Yaoting noted that Powell's comments were somewhat "hawkish," as he did not explicitly commit to reaching a neutral rate, describing the current policy stance as "closer to neutral" [1] - Zhao expects the Federal Reserve to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, followed by another cut early next year [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock index futures rose in early Asian trading, reflecting a positive market reaction to the rate cut, while U.S. Treasury bonds fell, indicating some disappointment among market participants regarding the Fed's stance [1] - Historically, U.S. stocks tend to perform strongly in the 12-18 months following the start of a Fed easing cycle, provided the economy does not enter a recession [1] - Emerging market stocks are currently valued one-third lower than developed markets, presenting good investment opportunities according to Invesco [1] Group 3 - In the new round of Fed easing, investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio and selectively increase allocations to emerging market stocks and local currency bonds [2] - In a declining interest rate environment, real estate is expected to outperform the broader market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market may benefit if the Federal Reserve adopts a "neither too much nor too little" easing policy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The ability of the stock market to continue strengthening and expand market participation depends on the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve a delicate balance amid tariff policy uncertainties [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to provide sufficient easing to avoid economic recession while keeping inflation under control [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A decline in fixed income rates may enhance the attractiveness of high-yield stocks as an alternative investment [1]