大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 聚酯产业链期货日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 聚酯产业链期货日报 【基础数据】 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号： F3019741 投资咨询从业证号： Z0017025 :021-6578 9235 :suifei_qh@chinastock.co m.cn | 炙别 | 名称 合约 | | 2025/5/9 | 2025/5/12 | 漆跌 | 深跌幅 | | 名称 | | 2025/5/9 | 2025/5/12 | 漆跌 | 深跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2506 | 6626 | 6806 | 180 | 2.72% | | 6月 MOPI CFR | | 269 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | РХ | 2509 | 6472 | 6654 | 182 | 2.81% | | PX中国CFR估价 | | 785 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | | 2601 | ...

化工日报 | 2025-05-08 成本端，五一假期期间，欧佩克+成员国同意将6月份的石油供应增加41.1万桶/日，这是继5月出人意料地大幅增产 后，该联盟连续第二个月加快供应恢复步伐，旨在惩罚那些违反配额、超额生产的成员国，原油供应压力持续。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年，后续随着汽油需求旺季到来可能会季节 性好转，但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待。国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~4月韩国出口到美 国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，亚洲MX和甲苯与石脑油价差表现低迷，短流程装置仍处于亏损状态， 大部分 PX 工厂停止外采 MX 生产 PX，成本端支撑有限。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN193美元/吨(环比变动+2.50美元/吨）。近期低利润下日韩PX装置计划外检修/降负有所 增加，PXN低位反弹，但5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，同时PTA5月检修依然较多，预计 PX平衡表将小幅累库。整体来看，当前PXN估值不高，下方仍有支撑，但在汽油弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/5/7 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/6 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 471. 1 | 458.9 | -12. 20 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,假期期间原油下跌,对PTA成本支 | | | | | | | 撑减弱,PTA行情补跌。目前PTA持续去库存,现货基 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1010. 5 | 1027. 1 | 16. 66 | 差较强。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2952 | 1. 3080 | 0. 0128 | | | | CFR中国PX | 748 | 748 | 0 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 190 | 202 ...

证券研究报告 桐昆股份 (601233 CH) Q1 盈利环比改善，聚酯链静待回暖 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 化学纤维 | 桐昆股份于 4 月 29 日发布 25 年一季报：一季度实现营业收入 194.2 亿元， 同环比-8%/-23%，归母净利润 6.1 亿元，同环比+5%/+213%，扣非净利润 6.0 亿元，同环比+12%/+447%。考虑行业产能增速放缓后的供给格局优化， 叠加内需修复有望带动产业链景气回暖，维持"增持"评级。 25Q1 涤纶长丝景气仍偏弱，主要原料价格下行助力毛利率改善 一季度参股公司（20%股权）浙石化经营情况环比改善，公司投资收益同比 -1%/环比+33%至 2.53 亿元。主营业务方面，一季度公司涤纶长丝产品 POY/FDY/DTY销量为181/45/24万吨，同比-7%/+8%/+4%，POY/FDY/DTY 销 售均 价为 6373/6783/7957 元 /吨 ， 同比 -7%/-12%/-5%， 实 现营 收 115/30/19 亿元，同比-13% ...

聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空乙二醇期货来锁定 | EG2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 4250-43 | | | | | 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | 50 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心乙二醇价格 下跌 | 多 | | EG2509P4 | 买入 | | 70-90 | | | | | 买入看跌期权防止价格大跌，同时卖出看涨期权降低资金成本 | 100 | | 50% | | | | | | | EG2509C4 400 | 卖出 | | 90-110 | | 采购管 理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单 情况进行采购 | 空 | 为了防止乙二醇价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入乙二醇期 货，在盘面采购来提前锁定采购成本 | EG2509 | 买入 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 12.45 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 101.3 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.2 billion, representing a 51% increase year-on-year [1][5]. - The polyester industry is expected to recover due to domestic demand recovery and improved textile and apparel exports, alongside a slowdown in production capacity growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 101.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.2 billion (RMB 930 million after deducting non-recurring items), marking a 51% increase year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of RMB 25.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 200 million, reflecting a significant increase of 283% year-on-year [1][2]. Sales and Margins - The sales volume for POY, FDY, and DTY in 2024 was 9.68 million tons, 2.14 million tons, and 1.12 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +23%, +46%, and +13% [2]. - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 2%, 3%, and remained flat, respectively, leading to a slight decline in overall gross margin to 4.6% [2]. Industry Outlook - The polyester industry is anticipated to see a recovery driven by domestic demand and improved export conditions, with a favorable supply-demand balance expected as production capacity growth slows [3][4]. - The average market prices for POY, FDY, and DTY have decreased since the beginning of 2025, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. Capacity and Projects - The company currently has a polyester polymerization capacity of 13 million tons per year and a polyester filament capacity of 13.5 million tons per year, holding an 18% market share in the domestic polyester filament market [4]. - Ongoing projects are progressing as planned, with significant milestones achieved in the Fujian and Anhui projects, expected to be completed in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, respectively [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to RMB 1.99 billion, RMB 2.38 billion, and RMB 2.83 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to a slow recovery in the polyester industry [5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 0.83, RMB 0.99, and RMB 1.18, respectively, with a target price based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [5].