以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者杨敏 摘要： 下周市场大概率以震荡小幅攀升为主，但热点依然轮动快，操作难度较高，真正的击球点还是要等待三个不确定因素的落地。 ------------------------ 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 近期市场呈现指数缩量攀升，热点轮动较快的特征，同时，每天尾盘前 ETF 的拉升也让大家担心如果无形之手不再参与，短期调整的风 险。 先说总体判断，趋势向好，等待三个因素的落地。 为什么说趋势向好？ 一方面，这次清明节和去年国庆节的市场走势，是一个情绪上的镜像关系。去年国庆长假积累的乐观情绪在节后开盘第一天集中爆发，打 出短期高点，这次清明节中的悲观情绪在节后第一天集中宣泄，打出 4 月 7 日 3040 的低点。而清明节和国庆节之后，市场都走了一波反 向趋势。 另外，美股在前期已经快速修复了关税问题打出的缺口，我们 A 股的主要指数距离回补缺口还有一段距离，只有少部分宽基回补了缺口。 但无论从绝对估值、估值分位，还是大幅调整后两边的政策力度，目前 A 股的性价 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - **Stock Index**: The White House announced that tariffs would take effect after April 2, Carney warned of Canadian counter - measures, Mexico sought to retain exemptions in the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and the EU was ready to retaliate. The US ISM manufacturing index contracted for the first time this year, and the price index reached a new high since June 2022. The US labor market slowed moderately, with February JOLTS job openings falling short of expectations. With tariff disturbances approaching and the earnings season, the stock index may be under pressure [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Wednesday's treasury bond issuance will bring some pressure to market expectations, but it's unlikely that the issuance rate will be significantly higher than the secondary - market rate. Overseas tariff issues are highly concerned, and the US is set to announce a reciprocal tariff list early on the 3rd. Due to many uncertainties, it's unwise to make radical unilateral investment operations before relevant news is confirmed. The market is expected to oscillate within a relatively narrow range in the coming period [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index may oscillate weakly under pressure [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profits in a timely manner [4]. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 rose 0.08%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 fell 0.11%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 rose 0.66%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 rose 0.39% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.15%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.04% [9]. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a weakly oscillating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating trend [10]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 300 Main Continuation | 3859.60 | 0.08 | 40892 | 150013 | | 2025/03/10 | SSE 50 Main Continuation | 2661.80 | - 0.11 | 20983 | 50237 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 500 Main Continuation | 5850.60 | 0.66 | 42101 | 68724 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 1000 Main Continuation | 6064.20 | 0.39 | 117820 | 159238 | | 2025/03/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 107.76 | - 0.08 | 56787 | 175280 | | 2025/03/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 105.57 | - 0.04 | 39077 | 155058 | | 2025/03/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 116.21 | 0.15 | 100609 | 102436 | | 2025/03/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 102.35 | - 0.04 | 29815 | 96496 | [12]