Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In April, the market rebounded from the bottom. Wind All - A closed down 3.15% monthly, with different performance among various indices. The US tariff war, though temporarily halted, may recur due to its underlying financial issues. Attention should be paid to the growth indicators in the A - share annual and quarterly reports, and the long - term trend of A - shares is mainly affected by the de - leveraging process of various sectors under the debt cycle. Also, capital expenditure and profitability of domestic and foreign demand - related sectors need to be monitored [3][6]. - The equity risk premium is at a relatively high historical level. Short - term funds support the stock market, but market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the momentum of both fund inflows and market sentiment has weakened weekly [3][9][18]. - Sectors with high overseas revenue are more sensitive to tariff policies as most of them are in the development stage with high capital expenditure and low ROE, adopting a thin - profit - high - turnover model [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - **Index Performance**: In April, Wind All - A closed down 3.15% monthly. Specifically, CSI 1000 fell 4.61%, CSI 500 fell 3.94%, SSE 50 fell 0.63%, and SSE 300 fell 2.58%. Weekly, small - cap indices rebounded more strongly, with CSI 1000 rising 1.85% and SSE 50 falling 0.33% [3][6]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US tariff war, which started on April 2nd, has temporarily ended. However, due to the US's insufficient financial account financing ability and the need to balance the current account deficit, tariff policies may change again in the future [3][6]. - **Financial Reports**: At the end of April, A - shares will fully disclose the 2024 annual reports and 2025 first - quarter reports. The market is more concerned about nominal growth data, and the year - on - year revenue growth rate in the financial reports can provide indirect verification. In the first three quarters of 2024, the cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of A - shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, excluding the financial sector, was - 1.7% ( - 0.6% in the semi - annual report) [3][6]. 2. Market Indicators - **Interest Rate and Valuation**: At the end of April, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond was 1.67%. The dynamic P/E ratio of Wind All - A was 18.22 times, and the equity risk premium was still at a relatively high historical level. The PE_ttm of CSI 1000 was 37.23, and that of SSE 300 was 12.26, with both valuation levels slightly lower than last month [9]. - **Fund Flow**: From April 1st to April 24th, the net subscription of the four major broad - based index ETFs reached 193.6 billion yuan, with a single - day net subscription of 100.3 billion yuan on April 7th, a record high. However, the margin trading balance decreased by 110.5 billion yuan during the same period, indicating a significant cooling of market sentiment. Weekly, both showed weakening momentum [18]. 3. Overseas Revenue Sectors - **Industry Concentration**: Sectors with high overseas revenue are mainly concentrated in three industrial chains: high - end technology manufacturing, new energy vehicle industry chain, and energy and chemical products [20]. - **Sensitivity to Tariffs**: Most sectors with high overseas revenue are in the development and expansion stage, with high capital expenditure ratios (8% - 18% of revenue). Their ROE is lower than the A - share average (around 7.8%), adopting a thin - profit - high - turnover model, making them more sensitive to tariff policies [20]. 4. Policy and Data - **Domestic Policies**: Multiple policies have been introduced, including a 12 - trillion - yuan debt - resolution plan, a mention of "moderately loose monetary policy", a 2025 GDP growth target of 5%, a fiscal deficit rate of 4%, and a fertility reward policy in Hohhot [21]. - **US Tariff Policy**: The US "reciprocal tariff" plan was implemented on April 3rd. As of April 12, 2025, the US tariff rate on Chinese imports increased by 125%. The US also issued a tariff exemption list and a tariff suspension policy for some countries, while China issued a white paper on Sino - US economic and trade relations [21]. - **Economic Data**: In March, China's exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year (in US dollars), and imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year (in US dollars). In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in March was 5.9%, exceeding the average level of the demand side [21]. 5. Index and Option Performance - **Index Performance**: CSI 1000 fell 4.15% monthly, CSI 500 rose 3.94% monthly, SSE 300 fell 2.58% monthly, and SSE 50 fell 0.63% monthly, with the basis discount annualization showing a widening divergence for all [29][33][36][38]. - **Option Indicators**: Charts of historical volatility, volatility cones,持仓PCR, and 交易PCR for CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 options are provided, but no specific analysis of these indicators is given in the text [42][51][58]. - **Trading Slippage**: Charts of IM long - and short - position trading slippage are provided, but no specific analysis is given [66]. 6. Corporate Profitability - **Low - level Profitability**: The profitability of listed companies remains at a relatively low level. In the third quarter of 2024, the revenue and net profit growth rates of the entire market, excluding the financial sector, showed different degrees of decline [77]. - **Financial Indicators of Indices**: The 2024 semi - annual report shows various financial indicators of different indices, including ROE, operating net profit margin, asset turnover, etc., with differences in growth and profitability among different indices [79].

美股三大指数创下近一个月以来最大单日涨幅。热门中概股表现强势，阿里巴巴涨超5%，拼多多、小 鹏汽车、蔚来涨逾4%，向上融科涨逾7%，富途控股涨超6%。 U.S. Bank Wealth Management资本市场研究主管梅茨（Bill Merz）表示："目前的盈利数据显示出基本面 良好的延续，投资者更关注公司对未来政策变化的应对策略。" 工业巨头3M因一季度盈利好于预期，股价大涨8.1%；而诺斯洛普格拉曼与航空航天公司RTX因担忧成 本上升影响全年盈利预期，分别重挫12.7%和9.8%。 热门中概股表现强势，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨3.69%。阿里巴巴涨超5%，拼多多、小鹏汽车、蔚来 涨逾4%，向上融科涨逾7%，富途控股涨超6%。 *美股三大指数涨幅居超过2.5% *热门中概股表现强势 *黄金盘中再创新高后回落 美股周二全面反弹，三大指数单日涨幅均超过2.5%。财报季进入密集披露期，多家大型企业的业绩提 振市场情绪。同时，市场对国际贸易摩擦缓和的预期升温，也促使投资者重新入场。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1016.57点，涨幅2.66%，报39186.98点；标普500指数上涨 129.56点，涨 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者杨敏 摘要： 下周市场大概率以震荡小幅攀升为主，但热点依然轮动快，操作难度较高，真正的击球点还是要等待三个不确定因素的落地。 ------------------------ 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 近期市场呈现指数缩量攀升，热点轮动较快的特征，同时，每天尾盘前 ETF 的拉升也让大家担心如果无形之手不再参与，短期调整的风 险。 先说总体判断，趋势向好，等待三个因素的落地。 为什么说趋势向好？ 一方面，这次清明节和去年国庆节的市场走势，是一个情绪上的镜像关系。去年国庆长假积累的乐观情绪在节后开盘第一天集中爆发，打 出短期高点，这次清明节中的悲观情绪在节后第一天集中宣泄，打出 4 月 7 日 3040 的低点。而清明节和国庆节之后，市场都走了一波反 向趋势。 另外，美股在前期已经快速修复了关税问题打出的缺口，我们 A 股的主要指数距离回补缺口还有一段距离，只有少部分宽基回补了缺口。 但无论从绝对估值、估值分位，还是大幅调整后两边的政策力度，目前 A 股的性价 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - **Stock Index**: The White House announced that tariffs would take effect after April 2, Carney warned of Canadian counter - measures, Mexico sought to retain exemptions in the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and the EU was ready to retaliate. The US ISM manufacturing index contracted for the first time this year, and the price index reached a new high since June 2022. The US labor market slowed moderately, with February JOLTS job openings falling short of expectations. With tariff disturbances approaching and the earnings season, the stock index may be under pressure [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Wednesday's treasury bond issuance will bring some pressure to market expectations, but it's unlikely that the issuance rate will be significantly higher than the secondary - market rate. Overseas tariff issues are highly concerned, and the US is set to announce a reciprocal tariff list early on the 3rd. Due to many uncertainties, it's unwise to make radical unilateral investment operations before relevant news is confirmed. The market is expected to oscillate within a relatively narrow range in the coming period [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index may oscillate weakly under pressure [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profits in a timely manner [4]. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 rose 0.08%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 fell 0.11%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 rose 0.66%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 rose 0.39% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.15%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.04% [9]. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a weakly oscillating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating trend [10]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 300 Main Continuation | 3859.60 | 0.08 | 40892 | 150013 | | 2025/03/10 | SSE 50 Main Continuation | 2661.80 | - 0.11 | 20983 | 50237 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 500 Main Continuation | 5850.60 | 0.66 | 42101 | 68724 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 1000 Main Continuation | 6064.20 | 0.39 | 117820 | 159238 | | 2025/03/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 107.76 | - 0.08 | 56787 | 175280 | | 2025/03/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 105.57 | - 0.04 | 39077 | 155058 | | 2025/03/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 116.21 | 0.15 | 100609 | 102436 | | 2025/03/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 102.35 | - 0.04 | 29815 | 96496 | [12]