Macroeconomic Data Overview - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2025 is reported at 5.20%, a decrease from 5.40% in the previous quarter and an increase from 4.70% in the same period last year [1] - The Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is at 49.40, slightly up from 49.30 in July and up from 49.10 year-on-year [1] - The Non-Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is at 50.30, showing a slight increase from 50.10 in July and unchanged from the previous year [1] - The total social financing scale for August 2025 is reported at 25,668 billion yuan, a significant increase from 11,307 million yuan in July and a decrease from 30,323 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The CPI for August 2025 shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.40%, compared to 0.00% in July and 0.60% last year [1] - The PPI for August 2025 shows a year-on-year decrease of 2.90%, an improvement from a decrease of 3.60% in July and a decrease of 1.80% last year [1] Commodity Investment Reference - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that stock prices are currently overvalued but stated that financial stability risks are not high at this time [2] - The U.S. White House's cryptocurrency committee executive director expects the cryptocurrency market structure bill to pass by the end of the year, which aims to consolidate various legislative efforts [2] - The SEC chairman expressed hopes for a new "innovation exemption" rule to be introduced by the end of the year, allowing cryptocurrency companies to launch products more easily [2] Metals - As of September 23, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 32,169,273.34 ounces (1,000.57 tons) of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.58% to $3,796.9 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce [4] Steel Industry - A notice from five departments outlines a growth stabilization plan for the steel industry for 2025-2026, emphasizing the acceleration of key iron ore projects and supporting compliant mining enterprises [6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth rate of 4% over the next two years, with a strict prohibition on new capacity [7] Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices have risen sharply, with U.S. crude oil main contract up by 2.20% to $63.65 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up by 1.85% to $67.19 per barrel [8] - The Russian government is discussing extending the export ban on gasoline producers until October and is considering a possible ban on diesel exports [8] - Kuwait's oil minister noted a recovery in global oil demand as oil inventories fall below the five-year average [8] Agricultural Products - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council indicates that upward price potential is limited due to weak demand, while uncertainties in export supply provide some support [10] - Brazil's agriculture ministry announced the reopening of the EU market for Brazilian chicken following an outbreak of avian influenza [10] Financial Market Overview - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 276.1 billion yuan on September 23, with a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan for the day [11] - The People's Bank of China governor met with Ray Dalio to discuss international economic conditions and financial market dynamics [12] - Concerns over local government special bond risks have drawn attention from the National People's Congress, highlighting the rapid growth of government debt [13] Stock Market News - The A-share market experienced wide fluctuations, with major banks showing stability and significant gains in semiconductor equipment and photolithography concepts [27] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.7%, with declines in consumer, real estate, and healthcare sectors [27] - Since the release of the "merger and acquisition six guidelines," over 2,800 A-share companies have disclosed M&A activities, with a notable increase in transactions in the semiconductor sector [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The bond market is expected to oscillate in the medium term due to the combination of supply - demand factors and the stock - bond seesaw effect. Economic recovery in September is a long - term negative for the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market. The operation of the bond market is likely to face increased difficulty [2][3][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In the third quarter, the accelerated pace of fiscal bond issuance and the tight balance of liquidity have a bearish impact on the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market into a continuous downward trend, but this logic has become less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, increasing the difficulty of market operation [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The second re - issuance of the fourth tranche of China's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has completed the tendering, with the overall issuance scale reaching 114.8 billion yuan and the issuance progress at 88.3% [10]. - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [10]. - Affected by the high base and food prices, China's CPI in August was flat month - on - month, down 0.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the increase has expanded for the fourth consecutive month. PPI was down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and flat month - on - month, ending eight consecutive months of decline [14]. - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars were up 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5%, and imports were up 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3% [14]. - The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation in the open market to fixed - quantity, interest - rate tendering, and multi - price winning bids, with the operation time and scale determined according to liquidity management needs [13]. - Market expectations for the restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations are gradually rising [14]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic prosperity generally continued to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. The GDP in the second quarter was up 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter, both exceeding expectations. The economic data in August shows that the endogenous driving force of the economy is strengthening, and if counter - cyclical regulation continues to increase, the economic fundamentals will be bearish for the bond market in the long term [15]. 3.2 Policy Front - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. The social financing stock reached 43.126 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point in the growth rate. The narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap in August indicates strengthened economic activities [17]. 3.3 Capital Front - Since July 25, DR007 has been declining, reducing the cost of funds. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain sufficient liquidity. The Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of domestic monetary policy still depends on domestic demand. The probability of an unexpectedly loose monetary policy is low unless the economic downward pressure increases suddenly [17]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Front - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this year and formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds. The support from ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal is 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan already allocated. The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [21]. 3.5 Sentiment Front - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term oscillation range, indicating that the market pays more attention to the stock market and the risk appetite has increased. Although the stock - bond ratio has slightly declined recently, it is still at a high level. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital front, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [24]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the third quarter, the bond market issuance has accelerated, increasing the supply and putting pressure on the liquidity of the inter - bank market. The tight balance of liquidity has increased the bearish factors for the bond market. After the Fed's interest rate cut, whether the risk appetite will continue to increase and whether the stock - bond seesaw will be bearish for the bond market need to be continuously observed. The combination of the stock - bond seesaw logic and loose liquidity may increase the difficulty of bond market operation [28].

过去5年，尽管面临着诸多始料未及的"黑天鹅"，但我国"钱袋子"还是越来越丰盈。 9月12日，财政部部长蓝佛安在介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成效时表示，"十四五"时期，全国一般 公共预算收入预计达到106万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加17万亿元，增长约19%。 近二成的增长，离不开各地的发展。从2024年数据看，16个省份财政收入比2020年增长20%以上；7个 省份超5000亿元，其中2个省份超1万亿元。 值得注意的是，在收入增加的同时，支出强度也是前所未有。数据显示，过去5年，全国一般公共预算 支出预计超过136万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加26万亿元，增长24%。同时，结构不断优化，更多"真金 白银"投向了发展大事和民生实事。 财政民生投入加大 财政政策作为宏观调控主要手段，具有扩大总需求和定向调结构的双重优势。 "近三年来若以广义财政支出作为财政力度指标，财政政策力度与内需相关性显著提高，而这个规律在 之前的观察中并不明显，这一方面是因为后地产时期，政府债对社融部分支撑明显，政府支出对于稳经 济的意义更加显著；另一方面，物价走弱时期财政的影响则更为核心，当前经济环境下，财政政策扩张 的持续性、连贯性则尤为 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 过去5年，尽管面临着诸多始料未及的"黑天鹅"，但我国"钱袋子"还是越来越丰盈。 9月12日，财政部部长蓝佛安在介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成效时表示，"十四五"时期，全国一般 公共预算收入预计达到106万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加17万亿元，增长约19%。 近二成的增长，离不开各地的发展。从2024年数据看，16个省份财政收入比2020年增长20%以上；7个 省份超5000亿元，其中2个省份超1万亿元。 值得注意的是，在收入增加的同时，支出强度也是前所未有。数据显示，过去5年，全国一般公共预算 支出预计超过136万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加26万亿元，增长24%。同时，结构不断优化，更多"真金 白银"投向了发展大事和民生实事。 "近三年来若以广义财政支出作为财政力度指标，财政政策力度与内需相关性显著提高，而这个规律在 之前的观察中并不明显，这一方面是因为后地产时期，政府债对社融部分支撑明显，政府支出对于稳经 济的意义更加显著；另一方面，物价走弱时期财政的影响则更为核心，当前经济环境下，财政政策扩张 的持续性、连贯性则尤为关键。"方正证券分析师杨文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing macroeconomic regulation to support stable economic growth [2][4][5]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal macro-control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is characterized by stronger efforts, a richer toolkit, more precise actions, and greater flexibility in timing [5]. - The average annual growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been 5.5%, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [4]. Group 2: Economic Cycle Management - The goal of macroeconomic regulation is to smooth out economic cycles, preventing significant fluctuations that could waste resources and impact social welfare [3]. - Cross-cycle regulation is increasingly important to find new growth drivers for medium- to long-term development [3]. Group 3: Coordination of Policies - Fiscal policy and monetary policy must work in tandem to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation [6]. - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [6]. Group 4: Fiscal Space and Debt Management - The fiscal deficit rate has increased from 2.7% to 4%, providing more room for fiscal policy [8]. - China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 68.7% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% and G7 average of 123.2% [8]. Group 5: Future Fiscal Policy Potential - There is considerable potential for further fiscal policy action, supported by a long-term positive economic trend and a large market [9]. - Ongoing reforms in fiscal management aim to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation and increase the fiscal capacity for macroeconomic regulation [9][10]. Group 6: International Coordination - Strengthening international macroeconomic policy coordination is essential to mitigate negative spillover effects from major economies [11]. - China's active participation in global economic governance and cooperation enhances the environment for domestic fiscal macro-control [11].

杨志勇（中国财政科学研究院院长、研究员） 9月12日，国新办举行新闻发布会，财政部部长蓝佛安介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成就。在发布会 上，蓝佛安部长专门就财政宏观调控作了介绍。 去年9月底，增量财政政策的出台极大地提升了市场信心，有力推动经济企稳回升。今年我国实施更加 积极的财政政策，增量财政政策和存量财政政策接续发力，更加积极的财政政策持续发力、更加给 力。"十四五"时期，财政宏观调控更加积极有为，是建立在对财政宏观调控规律的科学认识基础之上 的。财政政策与经济情景的适配性进一步增强。财政政策从积极到更加积极，战略上更加主动、战术上 更加精准，成为支撑经济平稳健康发展的重要力量。 宏观经济存在周期，熨平经济周期是宏观调控的重要目标。经济大起大落不仅会带来资源浪费，而且会 对社会民生造成影响。因此，防止经济大起大落，让经济平稳运行，成为现代国家宏观调控的直接目标 之一。宏观调控要针对经济周期所处的阶段，进行逆周期调节，熨平经济短期波动。传统工业社会的经 济周期相对较为容易确定，8~10年一个周期。随着科技进步，经济社会发展日趋复杂，经济周期不再 局限于既往8~10年的规律，这样，跨周期调节的重要性就与日俱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant enhancements in national fiscal strength and efficiency, highlighting the role of finance as a fundamental pillar of national governance [1] Fiscal Strength and Revenue Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," national public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Local fiscal strength has steadily grown, with 16 provinces projected to have fiscal revenue growth of over 20% compared to 2020, and 7 provinces exceeding 500 billion yuan, including 2 provinces surpassing 1 trillion yuan [2] Expenditure and Structural Optimization - National public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan over five years, an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The expenditure structure has been optimized, with more funds directed towards major development and livelihood projects [2] Macroeconomic Regulation - Fiscal macro-control has become more proactive, enhancing adaptability to economic conditions, and has played a crucial role in supporting stable and healthy economic development [3] - The government has implemented counter-cyclical adjustments to smooth short-term fluctuations, with a package of policies introduced in late 2022 to stabilize the economy [3] Social Welfare and Public Services - Total fiscal investment in the livelihood sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearly 100 trillion yuan, with over 70% of national public budget expenditure allocated to this area [4] - Key social expenditures include 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, and 10.6 trillion yuan for health care [4] Education and Healthcare Initiatives - All compulsory education students in urban and rural areas are exempt from miscellaneous fees and receive free textbooks, benefiting approximately 20 million economically disadvantaged students [5] - The government has allocated over 800 billion yuan to support clinical specialty and regional healthcare capacity building [5] Demand Expansion Strategies - The Ministry of Finance has implemented a series of policies to expand domestic demand, including employment subsidies totaling 318.6 billion yuan, a 29% increase from the "13th Five-Year Plan" [7] - The government has invested approximately 420 billion yuan in consumer goods replacement programs, driving sales exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan [7] Infrastructure Investment - Over the past five years, 19.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds have been allocated to support 150,000 construction projects, alongside 3.33 trillion yuan for central budget investments in infrastructure [8] - The Ministry of Finance aims to stimulate effective investment and consumption through innovative fiscal and tax policy tools, tapping into the vast potential of domestic demand [8]

杨志勇（中国财政科学研究院院长、研究员） "十四五"时期，财政政策与货币政策等协同作用，宏观调控效果显著。"十四五"已经过去的4年，年均 增速5.5%，为世界经济增长贡献率保持在30%左右。 9月12日，国新办举行新闻发布会，财政部部长蓝佛安介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成就。在发布会 上，蓝佛安部长专门就财政宏观调控作了介绍。 蓝佛安部长概括了"十四五"时期财政宏观调控的四个特点，即力度上更加给力、工具上更加丰富、发力 上更加精准、时机上更加灵活。这是对"十四五"财政宏观调控实践的总结。这个总结也显示了各方对财 政宏观调控的规律性认识逐步深化。财政宏观调控总体要稳，同时也要保持针对性灵活性。现实千变万 化，特别是外部因素不确定性增加，如果仅仅固守既有的调控做法，那么宏观调控就可能贻误良机。财 政政策就是要因时因势而动。当前全球科技革命和产业变革加速演进，对世界经济的影响不断加深，经 济运行态势都在发生变化，财政宏观调控也必须有相应的创新。 去年9月底，增量财政政策的出台极大地提升了市场信心，有力推动经济企稳回升。今年我国实施更加 积极的财政政策，增量财政政策和存量财政政策接续发力，更加积极的财政政策持续发力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to stabilize and promote economic growth, with a focus on enhancing the adaptability of fiscal policies to economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal macro-control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has four key characteristics: increased strength, richer tools, more precise implementation, and greater flexibility in timing [3]. - The fiscal policy has shifted from being merely proactive to being more actively engaged, which is crucial for supporting stable and healthy economic development [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Cycle Management - The goal of macroeconomic regulation is to smooth out economic cycles, preventing significant fluctuations that could waste resources and impact social welfare [2]. - Cross-cycle regulation is increasingly important for finding new growth drivers for medium- to long-term development, especially in the context of China's evolving economic landscape [2]. Group 3: Coordination of Policies - Effective fiscal macro-control requires the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, which enhances the overall effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [4]. - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds is an example of fiscal and monetary policy collaboration, expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [4]. Group 4: Fiscal Space and Debt Management - China's fiscal policy still has significant room for maneuver, with the fiscal deficit rate increasing from 2.7% to 4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," allowing for greater fiscal policy space [4]. - The government debt ratio in China is projected to be 68.7% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% and the G7 average of 123.2%, indicating potential for further fiscal expansion [4]. Group 5: Long-term Economic Outlook - The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains intact, supported by a vast market, which is expected to lead to increased fiscal revenues and enhanced fiscal strength [5]. - The ability to utilize fiscal policy effectively is improving, with a growing toolbox for macro-control, indicating a more forward-looking and targeted approach to fiscal policy [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has maintained an active fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on both short-term economic stabilization and long-term development, with significant measures taken to enhance economic resilience and growth potential [2][5]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal policy has become more forceful, with the deficit rate increasing from 2.7% to 3.8%, and further to 4% this year. Additionally, a new quota of 19.4 trillion yuan for local government special bonds has been arranged, along with over 1 trillion yuan in tax reductions and deferrals [2]. - The tools for fiscal policy have become more diverse, utilizing government bonds, tax incentives, fiscal subsidies, and special funds to enhance the multiplier effect of policies. For instance, the innovative issuance of ultra-long special government bonds supports comprehensive demand expansion [2]. - The fiscal measures have become more precise, targeting economic bottlenecks and challenges, such as a one-time arrangement of 6 trillion yuan for debt replacement to alleviate local debt pressure, thereby freeing up resources for public welfare and development [3]. Group 2: Timing and Flexibility - The timing of policy implementation has become more flexible, with a focus on early and effective execution of measures. The government aims to ensure that policies are timely and impactful, adjusting fiscal macro-control strategies as needed based on changing circumstances [4]. - The government emphasizes the importance of coordinating fiscal policy with monetary policy to create a synergistic effect. For example, the issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit investment [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The fiscal policy will continue to balance risk prevention and development promotion, with ample room for future fiscal actions. The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged, providing a solid foundation for fiscal operations [5]. - The government plans to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, ensuring readiness for future challenges and contributing to high-quality economic and social development [5].