Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday bond market continued to recover mainly because the pressure on the bank's asset - liability gap was lower than expected. Factors included government bond digestion pressure not being too high, most due deposits being renewed, and an increase in the speed of foreign exchange settlement under the expectation of RMB appreciation [6][9]. - Since 2025, the "quantity and price decline" of large - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) has often led to a downward repair of bond market interest rates. After the holiday, it is necessary to focus on whether CDs can continue the pre - holiday trend of "quantity and price decline" [6][9][11]. - The key to whether bond interest rates can continue to break through after reaching critical points depends on whether CD interest rates can "as expected" continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: Pay Attention to Whether CDs Can Continue the "Quantity and Price Decline" after the Holiday - The pre - holiday bond market recovery was due to three factors: government bond high growth not causing much digestion pressure, bank deposit loss not being serious as most due deposits were renewed, and the positive impact of increased foreign exchange settlement on the bond market [6][9]. - The "quantity and price decline" of large - bank CDs since 2025 has been correlated with the downward repair of bond market interest rates, and this time is no exception [6][9]. - After the holiday, it is necessary to observe whether there are more factors to ease the bank's liability pressure and whether the central bank will reduce other ways of base money injection [11]. - Since the end of 2024, CD interest rates have often shown "anti - seasonal" fluctuations, and it is worth noting whether they will continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: The Supply Scale of Interest - Bearing Bonds Remains at a High Level in the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Domestic Inflation and Financial Data Will Be Released - China will announce January CPI, PPI and other data, and the US will announce January unemployment rate and other data [15][16]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Is Expected to Be Around 712.1 Billion - The total issuance of interest - bearing bonds this week is expected to reach 712.1 billion. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue 210 billion, local bonds 322.1 billion, and policy - financial bonds about 180 billion [17][18]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Bond Market Interest Rates Mostly Decline 3.1 The 14 - day Reverse Repurchase Injection Started - After the month - end, the scale of open - market operation injections decreased. The 7 - day reverse repurchase scale decreased last week, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase injection started in the second half of the week, with a net withdrawal of 756 billion [22][23]. - The increase in cross - month capital interest rates was controllable. The repurchase trading volume increased, and the overnight proportion reached a high level. The overnight price and DR007 both declined [23]. - The issuance volume of CDs increased, and the price continued to decline. The net financing amount of CDs was positive, and the proportion of medium - term CDs decreased [29]. 3.2 The Bond Market Sentiment Remained Optimistic - Last week, there was little new information in the bond market. After the month - end, funds were loose, and the equity and commodity markets mostly declined. The bond market sentiment remained optimistic, and most interest rates declined [39]. - The 10Y treasury bond reached a critical point, and more catalysts may be needed for a downward breakthrough. Most yields of interest - bearing bonds with different maturities declined, with only the 1 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly [39]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most Commodity Prices Were Hit - On the production side, the trends of operating rates were divergent. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. The year - on - year decline in the daily average crude steel output in late January widened [45]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were still negative. The land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area increased. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased significantly compared with the same period of last Spring Festival. The export indices declined [45]. - On the price side, most commodity prices declined. Crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices decreased, and the price of coking coal futures also decreased. The comprehensive building materials price index and cement index decreased slightly, while the glass index increased. The price of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork mostly declined [46].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock index futures experienced an increase ahead of significant employment and inflation data expected later in the week [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by more than 100 points, representing a 0.2% increase [1] - S&P 500 futures advanced by 0.2% [1] - Nasdaq-100 futures increased by 0.3% [1] Group 2: Market Context - The market experienced a volatile week, leaving market-watchers feeling exhausted [1]

Inflation Data - January CPI is expected to decrease slightly to 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by rising pork prices and falling vegetable prices[7] - February and March CPI are projected to be 1.4% and 1.0% respectively, driven by seasonal demand for pork and vegetables[3] Producer Price Index (PPI) - January PPI is anticipated to be -1.5% year-on-year, with the factory price index rising by 1.7 percentage points to 50.6%[9] - February and March PPI are expected to be -1.4% and -1.2% respectively, amid stabilizing supply conditions[9] Credit and Financing - January new credit is projected at 5.20 trillion yuan, with February and March expected to be approximately 0.88 trillion and 3.92 trillion yuan respectively[16] - January new social financing is estimated at 738 billion yuan, with February and March expected to be 198 billion and 609 billion yuan respectively[22] Money Supply (M2) - January M2 growth is expected to remain stable at 8.5% year-on-year, with February and March projected at 8.5% and 8.4% respectively[24]

在经历连续反弹之后，美元指数进入高位整理阶段。此前累计超过1%的涨幅，为当前走势奠定了较为稳固的基础，使指数在回调时具备一定缓冲空间。 从整体表现看，美元短期内由弱转稳，市场对其阶段性表现的认可度有所提升。 市场情绪的改善是美元走强的重要背景因素之一。近期不确定性下降，有助于风险偏好逐步修复，美元在避险与流动性层面的优势得到强化。这种情绪面的 变化，并非单点事件推动，而是多重因素叠加的结果，为美元提供了额外支撑。 政策预期的调整，直接反映在中长期美债收益率上。收益率的回升或维持高位，提高了美元资产的相对吸引力，对汇率形成结构性支撑。同时，通胀数据也 强化了这一逻辑。最新公布的生产端通胀指标显示，无论是整体还是核心水平，仍处于相对偏高区间，表明上游成本压力尚未明显缓解。 在此背景下，市场对货币政策快速转向的预期受到抑制，美元在主要货币中的相对优势得以延续。短期内，部分投资者倾向于维持美元的基础配置，同时通 过区间交易来应对潜在波动，以平衡收益与风险。 从技术结构来看，美元指数在前期下探后迅速反弹，日线图上形成较为明显的修复形态，价格重新站上短期均线系统之上，显示多头力量正在逐步回归。目 前指数运行在97关口上方 ...

Group 1 - The gold futures market experienced a significant decline due to concerns over the hawkish policy stance of the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, leading to a strong rise in the US dollar and a sell-off in gold and silver [1][2] - The main gold futures contract in Shanghai reported a price of 1008.60 yuan per gram, reflecting a drop of 15.73%, with a trading range between 1005.40 yuan and 1154.78 yuan [1] - The market is currently characterized by high volatility driven by policy uncertainty, with future movements expected to be sensitive to the new chairman's statements during confirmation hearings and upcoming inflation data [2] Group 2 - The market's fears of aggressive tightening policies have led to a rapid decline in interest rate cut expectations, which has negatively impacted the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold [2] - A significant technical sell-off was triggered when gold prices fell below key psychological levels, exacerbating the downward trend [2] - Geopolitical risks and long-term allocation demand may provide temporary support for precious metals, but the market is expected to remain in a fragile state until a clearer policy path emerges [2]

美国经济数据呈现分化特征，消费端表现亮眼，12月零售销售环比增长0.8%，高于预期，印证消费韧性，为美联储维持当前利率水平提供支撑。 劳动力市场整体稳定，为美元筑牢底层经济支撑，而通胀及制造业景气度成为后续关注重点，2月3日公布的1月CPI数据将直接影响降息节奏预判。 主要货币对走势分化，进一步凸显汇市震荡格局。美元兑人民币运行平稳，2月2日银行间外汇市场人民币对美元中间价报6.9695，较前一交易日小幅下调17 个基点，即期汇率交投于6.9566附近，未出现大幅波动。 2026年2月2日，美元指数呈现震荡整理态势，受多重因素交织影响，短期缺乏明确单边走势方向，后续需重点关注通胀数据及主要央行政策信号，以预判走 势脉络。 美元兑日元受汇市协调预期及美国经济韧性支撑，在155-158区间宽幅波动，多空博弈激烈。美元兑欧元则受欧元区经济修复及欧央行决议预期影响，美欧 货币政策差博弈加剧，欧元兑美元维持在1.18上方震荡，对美元形成一定压制。 当前美元指数处于前期冲高回落后的均值回归阶段，最新收报97.140，日线布林带横向排布，短期围绕96.84-98.66区间震荡，多空动能均衡，暂无明确破位 迹象。 美联储政策 ...

在日元缺乏明确政策支撑、美元持续受益于偏鹰预期的背景下，相关货币对的上行逻辑依然成立，维持 高位运行态势。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 2026年2月2日，日本央行公布1月货币政策会议意见摘要，整体维持循序渐进的紧缩立场，叠加日本首 相高市早苗对弱势日元的表态，与美国偏鹰的货币政策预期形成共振。 来源：市场资讯 美元方面持续获得多重支撑。美国总统特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席，市 场普遍认为该人选具备较强的纪律性和审慎性，这一人事安排意味着货币政策在降息问题上将保持克 制，美联储独立性风险有所下降，增强了美元资产的吸引力。通胀数据进一步强化了这一预期，美国12 月PPI同比维持在3.0%，未如市场预期回落，核心PPI同比升至3.3%，反映出上游价格压力依然居高不 下。多位美联储官员最新表态延续偏鹰基调，认为当前利率水平大体处于中性或略偏限制性区间，短期 内不具备进一步降息的迫切性。 日本央行会议意见未对政策路径作出明显调整，委员们普遍认为"落后于曲线"的风险并未显著上升，但 也强调在当前实际利率深度为负的背景下，若经济增长与通胀前 ...

宏观层面，当下市场多空因素相互交织。上周五美股主要股指收跌，资金流动性随之收紧。投资者认 为，特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席，此乃鹰派之举；同时，市场还在 消化企业财报和高企的通胀数据。 政策方面，白宫虽与参议院民主党达成临时协议，为国土安全部争取两周资金以避免全面停摆，但众议 院已休会，短期技术性政府关门风险仍难以完全排除。地缘局势上，特朗普呼吁重启核谈判，伊朗则发 出报复威胁。美元走强进一步助推了基本金属的抛售潮，因为美元升值使以美元计价的金属对使用其他 货币的买家而言成本更高。此外，部分投资者在前一交易日金属价格创下历史新高后选择锁定收益，引 发获利了结。在多重不确定性交织影响下，沪铝市场分歧加剧，波动显著放大。 长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：贵金属高台跳水带动有色板块暴跌，隔周伦铝跌超 3%；全球金属商品大面 积下挫，市场乐观情绪消散，沪铝社库七连增施压，今现铝或大跌。 【铝期货市场】：贵金属高台跳水带动有色板块暴跌，隔周伦铝高台跳水，最新收盘报价3136美元/ 吨，收跌98美元，跌幅3.03%，成交量58019手减少3130手，持仓量700863手增加693手。周五晚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand, leading to a bearish outlook for lead prices in the short term [1][5]. Supply Side - Lead supply is characterized by a "passive contraction," with primary lead smelters reducing output due to seasonal maintenance and secondary lead producers cutting back or halting production due to industry-wide losses and weak demand [1][3]. - Despite a tightening supply of lead concentrate, the overall supply reduction has not supported prices due to a more severe contraction in demand, creating an imbalance of "supply reduction with weaker demand" [1][2]. Demand Side - The core demand for lead is significantly weak, particularly in the lead-acid battery sector, which has seen operating rates drop to their lowest point of the year, especially in the electric bicycle battery segment [2][3]. - Dealers are adopting a "light inventory" strategy, leading to an increase in social inventory of lead ingots, while emerging sectors like automotive replacement and communication storage are not providing enough support to offset the overall decline in traditional consumption [2][4]. Industry Chain - The entire lead industry chain is under pressure, with upstream supply tightness, midstream smelting enterprises (especially secondary lead) facing losses due to low prices and high costs, and downstream battery companies being cautious in raw material procurement due to high finished goods inventory and weak orders [3][4]. - Inventory pressure is transmitting from downstream to upstream, resulting in reduced activity in trade circulation and a prevalent wait-and-see sentiment among investors [3][4]. Spot Trading - The sharp decline in the futures market has quickly affected the spot market, leading to a cooling trading atmosphere [4][5]. - Traders are eager to sell, but prices are generally declining, resulting in an increase in low-priced sources while high-priced sources remain unsold, reflecting a general lack of market confidence [4][5]. Price Trend Prediction - In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to the resonance of macroeconomic negativity and industry weakness [5][6]. - As downstream companies begin to take holidays, demand is unlikely to improve, with prices expected to fluctuate around the cost line of secondary lead, lacking rebound momentum [5][6].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 2 日 豆粕：盘面震荡 豆一：盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 1 月 30 日 CBOT 大豆日评：美元反弹导致大豆下跌。北京德润林 2026 年 1 月 31 日消息：周五，芝 加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，主要原因是美元指数反弹以及巴西大豆收割进度加快。周五 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4382 | -33（-0.75%） | 4388 -8（-0.18%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2767 -31 | （-1.11%） | -14（-0.50%） 2762 | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1064.25 | -8.0（-0.75%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 293.6 | -2.4（-0.8 ...