Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 0% and an expectation of -0.2%[7] - The PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, improving from -3.6% previously, aligning with market expectations[7] - The overall PPI month-on-month remained at 0%, primarily due to low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, which hindered price transmission from upstream[2] Group 2: Price Transmission and Sector Analysis - Upstream price increases contributed positively to PPI month-on-month, with a calculated impact of 0.3% from commodity prices[1] - Downstream sectors, particularly in food and automotive industries, saw PPI declines of 0.3% each, reflecting significant price drops[2] - The core CPI for core goods rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by high gold prices and demand from trade-in programs[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Commodity prices are expected to continue rising, but excess supply in downstream sectors may limit the transmission of upstream price increases, keeping inflation weak throughout the year[4] - By year-end, PPI is projected to recover to a maximum of -2.1% year-on-year, while CPI may remain negative in Q3 but could turn positive in Q4[4] - Risks include potential tightening in food and energy supplies, which could further impact CPI dynamics[5]

中国经济丨点评报告 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 关注 PPI 回升的持续性 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ——8 月通胀数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 8 月物价有积极变化，核心 CPI 同比涨幅连续 4 个月扩大，PPI 同比降幅收窄。但值得注意的 是，CPI 同比连续 30 个月在 1%以下震荡，PPI 同比连续 35 个月为负，指向国内需求仍较疲 弱，国际贸易环境不确定、部分行业产能过剩仍待优化。往前看：1）CPI 同比再度转负，强化 社会保障、多措并举提高居民收入是提振消费的关键。2）8 月 PPI 同环比数据均有改善，除了 基数影响，也得益于"反内卷"的有序推进，关注 PPI 同比改善的持续性和幅度。短期稳物价、 稳预期仍待需求侧政策的提振，地产领域已有积极调控政策推出，货币、财政或亦将有加码。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1 [Table_Title ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to experience a downturn, with government bond futures showing a significant decline and a tightening liquidity environment affecting market sentiment [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.86% to 114.76, marking the lowest close since March 19 [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 2.75 basis points to 1.822%, while the yield on the 30-year bond rose by 2.5 basis points to 2.096% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.63% to 474.4 points, with a trading volume of 724.47 billion [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7.41 basis points to 3.560% [3]. - Asian markets saw most bond yields rise, with the 5-year and 10-year yields increasing by 1.5 basis points and 0.4 basis points, respectively [3]. - In the Eurozone, most bond yields also increased, with the UK 10-year yield rising by 1.7 basis points to 4.621% [3]. Primary Market - The weighted average yield for the 91-day Treasury bond was 1.2745%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.04 [4]. - The 5-year fixed-rate bond had a weighted average yield of 1.5973% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.24 [4]. - The 50-year special treasury bond had a yield of 2.2227% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.18 [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total of 3,040 billion at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 749 billion for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.6 basis points to 1.425% [5]. Economic Indicators - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.9%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [7]. - The core CPI has shown an expanding growth rate for four consecutive months, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [7]. Institutional Insights - Long-term liquidity is expected to remain stable, with the central bank likely to continue providing support for government bond issuance [8]. - The new regulations on public fund sales fees are anticipated to enhance the stability of public bond funds, potentially leading to increased inflows into bond ETFs [8].

Macroeconomic Overview - In August 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 79,000 [1] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% [1] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1] - The U.S. manufacturing and services sectors continue to show divergent trends, with manufacturing contracting and services expanding [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for August recorded 48.7, below the expected 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index was at 52, exceeding both expectations and the previous value [1] - The ADP employment data for August showed a significant decline, with only 54,000 jobs added, falling short of the expected 68,000 and the previous 104,000 [1] Index Performance - For the week of September 1-5, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 2.51%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 1.01% and the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.33% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, five sectors saw gains, with communication equipment leading at 5.07%, while energy was the worst performer, declining by 3.52% [2][3] Investment Direction - The disappointing non-farm payroll data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a surge in gold prices and volatility in U.S. equities [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly risen, with projections indicating a potential cut starting in September [4] - The upcoming U.S. PPI and CPI data will be closely monitored as inflationary pressures remain concentrated in the fourth quarter [4] - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment tool for domestic investors to capture U.S. equity growth [4] - The S&P 500 Index is recognized as a benchmark for U.S. equities, covering over 500 representative companies across 11 sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of the total market capitalization [4] Nasdaq 100 ETF - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a significant allocation of 57.87% in the information technology sector [5] - The index includes high-quality technology companies, providing exposure to various sectors such as consumer services, consumer goods, and healthcare [5]

分析人士认为，国债持续下跌可能与两大原因有关： 国债市场迎来大抛盘！ 9月10日午后，银行间主要利率债收益率午后加速上行，10年期国债活跃券收益率上行1.5BP报1.81%，时隔五个月重回1.8%上方。30年期国 债收益率上行逾2BP，创该债券上市以来新高。30年期主力合约一度大跌0.82%，创3月24日以来新低。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，一方面，与今天发布的通胀数据有关。8月PPI同比下降2.9%，为今年3月份以来首次收窄；另一方 面，可能与权益市场持续向好存在关系。 数据显示，截至2024年末，中国国债市场规模为12.4万亿元（年度发行量），托管余额未直接披露但可推算约占债券市场总托管余额177万亿 元的7%。那么，国债在当前格局之下，究竟会如何演绎？ 国债加速下跌 9月10日，国债迎来一轮下跌。午后，国债期货跌幅持续扩大，30年期主力合约一度大跌0.82%报114.81元，创3月24日以来新低。银行间30年 期国债收益率上行逾2BP，创该债券上市以来新高。10年期国债活跃券收益率亦于午后加速上行1.5BP报1.81%，时隔五个月重回1.8%上方。 第一，今天公布的通胀数据。8月PPI同比下降 ...

国债市场迎来大抛盘！ 9月10日午后，银行间主要利率债收益率午后加速上行，10年期国债活跃券收益率上行1.5BP报1.81%，时隔五个月重回1.8%上方。30年期国债收益率 上行逾2BP，创该债券上市以来新高。30年期主力合约一度大跌0.82%，创3月24日以来新低。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，一方面，与今天发布的通胀数据有关。8月PPI同比下降2.9%，为今年3月份以来首次收窄；另一方面，可能 与权益市场持续向好存在关系。 数据显示，截至2024年末，中国国债市场规模为12.4万亿元（年度发行量），托管余额未直接披露但可推算约占债券市场总托管余额177万亿元的 7%。那么，国债在当前格局之下，究竟会如何演绎？ 国债加速下跌 9月10日，国债迎来一轮下跌。午后，国债期货跌幅持续扩大，30年期主力合约一度大跌0.82%报114.81元，创3月24日以来新低。银行间30年期国债收 益率上行逾2BP，创该债券上市以来新高。10年期国债活跃券收益率亦于午后加速上行1.5BP报1.81%，时隔五个月重回1.8%上方。 国泰君安期货认为，市场情绪受政策预期、流动性及宏观经济数据边际变化影响较大，当前宏观数据预期 ...

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 979.68 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On September 9, spot gold prices peaked at $3675.01 per ounce, marking a new historical high, before closing at $3626 per ounce, down $9.7 or 0.27% [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Israel and Hamas, influenced gold prices, which initially surged before retreating due to rising U.S. Treasury yields [5] Group 2 - Recent economic data revealed a downward revision of 911,000 in U.S. non-farm payrolls, equivalent to a 0.6% decrease, marking the worst performance on record [5] - Analysts suggest that the downward revision of employment data strengthens the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders currently pricing in an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold may face a correction, with potential support levels at $3600 and $3578, while resistance levels are seen at $3700 and $3750 [6]

US stocks moved higher on Monday as investors set their sights on inflation data later this week to provide a reality check on the chances of a jumbo interest-rate cut next week. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up around 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed at a record high, up around 0.5% on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed 0.2%. The moves come after stocks finished last week on a down note. Wall Street is already looking ahead to key inflation reports later this ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. stock market closed lower last Friday due to a weak non-farm payroll report for August, indicating a significant cooling in the job market and raising concerns about the U.S. economy [1] - Following the release of the August non-farm payroll report, the market now anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Employment Market - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, marking the weakest job market since the pandemic began [2] - Excluding healthcare, the total employment has seen negative growth for the first time in 25 years, except during recession periods [4] - The healthcare sector has been the primary source of job growth in recent months, but it is now also experiencing a noticeable decline [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Economists expect the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 2.9% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, indicating limited progress in curbing inflation [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile items like food and energy, is projected to increase by 3.1% year-over-year, remaining consistent with July's levels [2] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of achieving full employment and maintaining a 2% inflation rate is under pressure due to the current economic conditions [2] Consumer Sentiment - The upcoming Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Index for September will provide insights into consumer psychology amid a slowing job market and uncertain inflation outlook [1] - Despite a relatively low unemployment rate of 4.32%, there is growing concern among workers about future job losses, which negatively impacts consumer confidence [4]

来源|每日经济新闻 浙商证券认为，短期内，大部分金属上涨，流动性充裕。黄金的金融属性有望进一步支撑金价上行。中期：情绪若转向，黄金是很好的避风港。若中 期其他金属走势出现转折，黄金避险价值再凸显，利好金价。长期：美元信用下行是本轮黄金大牛市的主叙事，随着后续特朗普政府的新政策，美元 信用或继续下行。 9月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年8月末，我国外汇储备规模为33222亿美元，较7月末上升299亿美元，升幅为0.91%。 财通证券认为，特朗普罢免美联储理事，通胀数据推升降息预期。目前的数据展示出就业降温、通胀符合预期，符合美联储的降息前提，9月降息的 预期进一步升温。中长期来看，全球经济增长面临压力，关税和地缘冲突的风险并未完全消除，黄金避险保值能力长存，持续看好黄金投资机会。 2025年8月，受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素 综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济运行稳中有进，展现出强大韧性和活力，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 【 热门视频推荐 】 同时，9月7日，中国央行公布数据显示，中国8月 ...