Group 1 - The core theme for 2025 is the weakness of the US dollar, which has shown its worst performance since 1973 in the first half of this year [1] - The performance of US Treasury bonds has also been poor, with a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow during periods of heightened uncertainty [1] - In contrast, demand for gold ETFs has significantly increased, with total assets under management (AUM) rising by 41% to $383 billion, and total holdings increasing by 397 tons to 3,616 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022 [1] Group 2 - As of July 18, spot gold closed at $3,350.05, showing slight fluctuations, with a "deep V" pattern reflecting intensified market dynamics [1] - Economic data has been strong, suppressing rate cut expectations and boosting the dollar, while tariff policies have raised inflation expectations, driving investors to allocate to gold for risk hedging [1] - Gold is currently at a balance point between short-term economic strength and long-term inflation concerns, highlighting its safe-haven value [1] Group 3 - Recent reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting potential rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [2]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3347 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.35% last Friday due to a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties that have boosted demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The dollar index fell by 0.5% last Friday, making gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, while concerns over U.S. Treasury growth and tariffs may keep gold in focus [1] - Analysts are generally bullish on gold, with a significant increase in retail investor bullish sentiment [1] Bullish Sentiment - Despite market uncertainties, the fundamentals for gold remain strong, with expectations that the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting may provide new momentum for gold prices [1] - The market anticipates that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at least until October, supporting gold prices [1] - Geopolitical tensions, uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership, and a weakening dollar are all contributing to the support for gold prices, with strong reactions observed around the $3350 to $3362 trendline [1] Bearish and Neutral Sentiment - Concerns about weakening momentum for gold prices are noted, as gold has failed to break through the $3400 per ounce level, indicating a potential decrease in upward momentum [2] - The significant price increases in other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium suggest that some investors are shifting towards alternative assets, which may reduce gold's attractiveness [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to resist pressure for rate cuts, citing uncontrolled inflation and economic uncertainties, which may limit the direct impact of tariffs on gold prices [2] Market Trends - Current gold market trends indicate an upward price movement, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [5] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [5] - Technical indicators show that gold prices are near support levels, with MACD indicating upward momentum, although market activity is decreasing, suggesting cautious trading [5] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes positioning for short trades around $3358.50 with a stop loss at $3365 and a take profit target in the $3339-$3330 range [5]

Macro News - US President Trump stated he does not plan to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, despite new criticisms and not ruling out the possibility of dismissal [1] - Trump indicated that the US may maintain the tariff rates set for Japan and could reach a trade agreement with India, although he does not expect a broader agreement with Japan [1] - The EU is prepared to impose tariffs on US goods worth €72 billion (approximately $83.6 billion) if trade negotiations with Washington fail [1] Economic Outlook - The latest Federal Reserve economic report shows an increase in economic activity, but the outlook remains "neutral to slightly pessimistic," with rising price pressures due to increased import tariffs [2] - The New York Fed President Williams noted that current monetary policy is appropriate, allowing officials to observe the economy before taking further action, and warned that the impact of trade tariffs on the economy is just beginning [2] Gold Market Insights - Gold assets have gained market favor, with the RMB gold price rising 28.19% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 index and reaching historical highs [2] - The traditional framework of "real interest rates determine gold prices" is changing, with real interest rates having reduced predictive power since 2022 [3] - Central banks' large-scale gold purchases, challenges to dollar credit due to sanctions and fiscal deficits, and frequent geopolitical conflicts are driving gold's price increase beyond traditional models [3] - Gold's low correlation with equity assets provides excellent diversification benefits, enhancing the risk-return profile of stock-bond portfolios [3] - Given the current global macroeconomic uncertainties, gold is expected to play a strategic role in asset allocation, offering inflation and risk protection [3]

Group 1 - The price of SHFE Gold weighted is 782.06, with a change of 8.10 and a change rate of 1.05%. The trading volume is 330,985 lots, and the open interest is 397,647 lots. The highest price is 782.08, the lowest price is 776.80 [5] - The price of SHFE Gold main - continuous contract is 781.40, with a change of 8.22 and a change rate of 1.06%. The trading volume is 249,578 lots, and the open interest is 191,083 lots. The highest price is 781.46, the lowest price is 776.24 [5] - The price of SHFE Gold 2507 contract is 778.50, with a change of 8.02 and a change rate of 1.04%. The trading volume is 18 lots, and the open interest is 879 lots. The highest price is 778.50, the lowest price is 774.16 [5] - The price of SHFE Gold 2508 contract is 778.98, with a change of 7.64 and a change rate of 0.99%. The trading volume is 44,116 lots, and the open interest is 62,625 lots. The highest price is 779.00, the lowest price is 773.80 [5] - The price of SHFE Gold 2509 contract is 779.96, with a change of 7.34 and a change rate of 0.95%. The trading volume is 389 lots, and the open interest is 8,848 lots. The highest price is 780.24, the lowest price is 775.28 [5] - The price of SHFE Gold 2510 contract is 781.40, with a change of 8.22 and a change rate of 1.06%. The trading volume is 249,578 lots, and the open interest is 191,083 lots. The highest price is 781.46, the lowest price is 776.24 [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of tariff escalations on gold prices, highlighting a rebound in gold as a safe-haven asset due to increased market uncertainty [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Tariff upgrades are stimulating demand for gold as a hedge against economic instability [1] - The article suggests that the current order flow analysis may provide entry signals for investors looking to capitalize on gold's price movements [1] Group 2: Investment Signals - Real-time analysis of gold order flows is being conducted to identify potential investment opportunities [1] - The article encourages subscribers to engage with ongoing market trend analyses related to commodities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are expected to continue fluctuating due to various market factors, including the strength of the US dollar and recent employment data [1][2][3] - The US dollar index was trading around 97.80, with silver opening at $36.99 per ounce and currently trading at approximately $37.10 per ounce [1] - On July 10, the US dollar index rose by 0.10% to close at 97.59, while silver increased by 1.73% to $37.00 per ounce, alongside gains in other precious metals such as gold and platinum [1][2] Group 2 - The recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration have created a complex environment for silver prices, with potential exemptions for certain goods under the USMCA, but also significant punitive tariffs that could reach a cumulative rate of 60% on specific products [2] - Strong US employment data, with initial jobless claims hitting a seven-week low, has diminished market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, further impacting silver's appeal [2] - Technical analysis suggests that silver may retreat to a support level of $36.85 per ounce, with a resistance level at $37.29, indicating a potential continuation of a consolidation pattern if upward momentum is insufficient [3]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down nearly 1%, Nasdaq down 0.92%, and S&P 500 down about 0.8%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Company Performance - Japanese and Korean companies listed in the U.S. faced significant stock price drops, with Nissan down over 7%, Toyota down nearly 4%, SK Telecom down over 7%, and LG Display down more than 8%. This decline is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with Japan and Korea facing a 25% tariff [3] - Tesla's stock fell 6.79%, influenced by Elon Musk's political activities, which raised investor concerns about his focus shifting away from technology and market growth [3] - In contrast, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.59%, with Bilibili up over 7% and Baidu nearly 4%, while Xpeng Motors fell nearly 5% and Alibaba down over 2%, indicating a selective investment approach within Chinese stocks [3] Currency and Commodity Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% to 97.48, as investors sought safety in the dollar amid stock market declines, strengthening against major currencies like the euro and pound [4] - Goldman Sachs suggested that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates as early as September, which could positively impact technology and growth stocks [4] - Oil prices increased despite OPEC+ announcing production increases, with Brent crude rising 1.87% and West Texas Intermediate crude up 1.39%, indicating a tighter supply in the physical market [4] - Gold prices experienced a V-shaped recovery, reflecting investor behavior in response to geopolitical and policy uncertainties [4] Key Factors Influencing the Market - The market volatility is largely driven by "policy" and "expectations," with ongoing concerns about tariff policies, Elon Musk's actions, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction being critical factors to monitor for their potential impact on company fundamentals and industry trends [5]

Group A: ETF Holdings - In June, gold holdings changed 19 times, with 11 increases and 8 decreases [3] - The last significant increase in gold prices was influenced by risk aversion, which is expected to continue until a substantial reduction in holdings occurs [3][5] - Recent frequent reductions in holdings indicate that retail investors are cautious about breaking through current price levels, suggesting gold may fluctuate around 3300 [5] Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The gold total ratio approached a critical 60% line in late June, with many institutions taking short positions [6] - The market saw a spike above the upper limit, indicating potential short squeezes, but the overall sentiment has returned to a balanced state [8] Group C: Fundamental Analysis Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's stance remains slightly softened, with market expectations leaning towards potential interest rate cuts in September if inflation eases and employment data weakens [8] - Predictions for upcoming FOMC meetings show a significant probability of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% until late July, with a gradual shift towards lower rates anticipated [8] Major Legislative Proposals - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is under negotiation, with implications for tax cuts, social security reductions, and increased national debt by $3.3 trillion [11][12] - The Senate has passed the bill, but the House's response remains uncertain, which could impact market sentiment [9] Non-Farm Payroll Data - The ADP employment data showed a significant drop, indicating potential weakness in the labor market, which may affect the upcoming non-farm payroll report [12][15] - Expectations for non-farm payrolls are set at 110,000, with variations in the actual data likely to influence gold and dollar valuations [15]

累或不累，无路可退，靠着别人给你的快乐不持久，靠着外界给你的鼓励难继续，自己的快乐要自己给，自己的 信念要自己定，好忙碌的生活，好不足的睡眠，可选了这不知足的梦，唯有不认怂的向前走。 特朗普的"大而美"减税法案于参议院过关之后，以及7月9日贸易协议谈判期限即将到来之际，市场纷纷寻求避 险。另外，美国6月ADP就业人数减少3.3万人，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，利率期货几乎完全定价美联储9月降 息。 黄金本周非但没有延续上周跌势，反而迎来了"V"转回升，成功企稳了3300大关。隔日黄金依旧上行，目前最高 冲击了3366位置，与彬哥预期的3370是相当吻合的。从当前走势来看，多头已经扭转上周颓势，隔日收阳于3350 之上，日线形成三连阳势头，对于多头更加有利。 白银刷新历史高点至37.3遇阻后就没发生什么动静了，一直保持在36.8—35.3区间进行高位震荡。日线布林带呈缩 口运行，多空争夺的比较激烈，上也上不去，下也不想下。但整体局势是牛市看涨无疑，且看震荡过后如何抉择 了，今晚非农能不能指引方向我们拭目以待。操作上在35.8—36.6区间高沽低渣即可，破位就跟随。 压力：36.6——36.8 支撑：35.8— ...

特朗普关税大限逼近，黄金避险再起？金价支撑上移，多头能否守住阵地？点击查看详细分析！ 相关链接 避险与利率博弈，黄金布局时机已到？ ...