以下文章来源于追风交易台 ，作者追风交易台 追风交易台 . 全球宏观研究、交易、配置，你不能错过 今年上半年，市场见证了一场引人注目的资产重新配置过程：原本在2024年第四季度同步上涨的黄金与比特币，如今已演变为一场"零和博弈"。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通本周在研报中写道，自4月22日黄金价格达到3500美元的峰值后，已下跌近8%，而同期比特币价格上涨了18%。 这种此消彼长的 格局预计将持续至年底，但多项加密货币特有的积极催化因素可能使比特币在下半年表现优于黄金。 资金流向印证黄金与比特币的"翘翘板"效应 摩根大通表示， 最近三周的资产流向数据清晰地展示了这种此消彼长关系。 散户和私人投资者的行为显示，实物黄金和现货ETF出现资金外流，而比特币/加密货币ETF则经历资金流入。期货市场也呈现类似趋势：黄金期货持续下滑， 比特币期货却大幅增长。这与今年2月中旬至4月中旬期间的关税事件相反，当时黄金强势上涨，而比特币与风险资产同步下跌。 2月中旬至4月中旬，黄金上涨是以比特币下跌为代价；而过去三周则出现相反的趋势——比特币上涨伴随着黄金下跌。 "特有的"多重催化剂支撑比特币上涨势头 摩根大通认为，比特币在今年下 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley indicates that as "de-dollarization transactions" stagnate, a "zero-sum game" emerges between gold and Bitcoin [1][4] - Since April 22, gold prices have dropped nearly 8% from a peak of $3,500, while Bitcoin prices have increased by 18% during the same period [1][3] - The report highlights a shift in fund flows, with gold ETFs experiencing outflows and Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ETFs attracting inflows over the past three weeks [3][7] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the "zero-sum game" between gold and Bitcoin will continue for the remainder of the year, with specific catalysts for cryptocurrencies expected to create more upward potential for Bitcoin in the second half [3][4] - Notable catalysts for Bitcoin include increased holdings by companies like MicroStrategy and legislative changes in New Hampshire allowing state treasury investments in Bitcoin [3][4] - Futures data shows a continued decline in gold futures positions, while Bitcoin futures have seen a significant increase [10]

作者介绍 ｜ PROFILE 罗德侠（Paul A. Laudicina）是国际公认的战略与商业政策权威专家，现任科尔尼管理咨询公司 荣誉主席，并担任其创立的科尔尼全球商业政策委员会名誉主席。在2006至2012年间，他曾执掌 科尔尼全球业务，出任首席执行官兼董事会主席。其职业生涯始于联合国系统，具有深厚的国际 组织背景。罗德侠先生拥有芝加哥大学政治学学位，现任该校国际管理科学院副院长，同时是美 国外交关系协会的重要成员。作为国际贸易政策领域的资深专家，他曾获邀加入拜登总统出口委 员会，参与美国最高层级的国际贸易政策咨询工作。2019年，其卓越的专业贡献获得业界高度认 可，被 授予《咨询》杂志终身成就奖 。 英文原文首发于福布斯管理专栏，此为译文。 在持续聆听诸多关于全球经济濒临崩溃边缘的分析后，一位与我相交多年的企业掌舵人近日致 电询问，希望我能为当前世界局势提供一个更为乐观（或至少不那么悲观）的视角。 作为管理学领域长期秉持乐观主义的学者——或许源于五年前我出版的那本题为Roadmap to a Brighter Future《通往光明未来的路线图》的管理学书籍——他认为我或许能为这片阴霾笼罩 的天地勾勒 ...

在班多看来，美中作为世界上两个重要国家，保持良好的关系、就重大问题开展合作并共同解决全球性 挑战至关重要。 展望未来的全球治理格局，班多认为，新兴大国将会承担起更多国际责任。他表示，自己很高兴看到曾 经不发达的国家在经济、社会和政治上持续进步，成为国际治理的新兴力量。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新社北京5月14日电 (记者李京泽郭超凯)第四届万寿国际安全研讨会于5月13日至14日在北京举行。美 国前总统里根特别助理、卡托研究所高级研究员班多在研讨会上表示，美中两国对维护世界和平稳定具 有举足轻重的作用，双方应带头创造一个远离零和博弈、人人共享的世界。 本届研讨会的主题是"变乱世界中的普遍安全——大国的责任"。班多表示，当今世界充满动荡，大国应 汲取历史教训，担负起时代责任，确保世界不会重新堕入战争深渊。 当前，单边主义、保护主义正严重冲击国际经济格局。"经济合作曾让各国走到一起。但不幸的是，美 国新政府正把投资和贸易作为武器，威胁自身及他国的繁荣与稳定。"班多说，美国官员有义务考虑自 身决策可能对世界带来的影响。 30多年前，班多首次访问中国，此后他一直关注着中国的发展，并见证了这片古老土地发生翻天覆 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of global strategic stability and the need for nuclear weapon states to engage in dialogue and cooperation to avoid conflicts and arms races [1][2][3] - The joint statement by China and Russia reflects their commitment to maintaining international order and the principles of the United Nations, particularly in the context of nuclear warfare and arms control [2][3] - The articles highlight the growing risks to international security due to military tensions among nuclear states and the need for preventive measures rather than reactive ones [2][3] Group 2 - Specific recommendations from the joint statement include prioritizing preventive measures in crises, advocating for true multilateralism, and opposing unilateral sanctions and economic coercion [3] - The statement also addresses the need to prevent the militarization of outer space and to adhere to international treaties such as the Biological Weapons Convention [3] - The articles call for collective efforts from the international community to maintain a multilateral system centered around the United Nations and to achieve comprehensive and sustainable security [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of the global financial landscape, particularly in light of the U.S. debt reaching $35 trillion and the shifting dynamics of international currency and trade, with China emerging as a key player in establishing a new financial order centered around the renminbi [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and Market Reactions - The U.S. debt crisis has not triggered a global market upheaval as it has in the past, indicating a shift in international financial dynamics [3]. - Historically, the U.S. relied on the "dollar anchor" to manage its growing fiscal deficits, but this reliance is diminishing as countries like China develop alternative trade mechanisms [3][5]. Group 2: China's Strategic Positioning - China is actively building a financial "firewall" to protect its economy from external shocks and is gradually shifting its industrial base to reduce dependency on foreign technology [5][7]. - The rapid advancements in Chinese technology, particularly in sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing, are challenging the traditional dominance of U.S. innovation [7][10]. Group 3: Global Economic Order - The article highlights a growing trend among countries to reassess their reliance on the U.S. dollar, with the expansion of BRICS nations symbolizing a move towards greater economic sovereignty [7][9]. - The U.S. response to these changes has been to strengthen alliances and impose restrictions on Chinese industries, which may inadvertently accelerate the process of de-dollarization [9][10]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China in technology and finance is reshaping global economic rules, with China positioning itself as a rule-maker rather than a rule-taker [10][12]. - The article suggests that the global financial landscape is undergoing a transformation, with countries reevaluating their strategies in light of shifting power dynamics [12].

韩国外长（资料图） 中国有句老话，听其言而观其行。作为美国的盟友，韩国政府的外交政策深受美国的影响。韩国外交部长虽然这样表态，我们还是要关注接下来的一系列 举动。果不其然，赵兑烈认为韩国的外交政策需要优先定位于韩美同盟等基础性问题，至于跟中国接触也是为了"防止21世纪强国之间爆发战争"，更是为 了韩国自身利益。但是，从美国对韩国政治、经济的影响以及驻韩美军的存在，这就决定了韩国想完全制定独立自主的外交政策是不现实。 韩国等小国的"表态中立"，本质是在大国夹缝中求生存的无奈选择。它们既不愿放弃美国的安全保护，又无法承受与中国经济脱钩的代价。中国的反制措 施和美国的胁迫，共同塑造了小国"口头上不选边、行动上找平衡"的策略。正如新加坡前总理李显龙所言："在中美之间，小国不是在选边，而是在选怎么 活"。这种困境短期内难以突破，而大国博弈的烈度，将最终决定这些国家能否在"惊涛骇浪"中守住航向。 据智通财经报道，韩国要求与美国就贸易问题进行"冷静有序"的磋商。据报道，这个亚洲第四大经济体正寻求在7月前与美国达成协议以避免加征关税。在 华盛顿举行的"2+2"会谈中，韩国经济副总理兼企划财政部长官崔相穆和产业通商资源部长官D ...

这位投资界传奇人物直言："贸易不应该是武器"，并警告保护主义政策可能对美国经济造成长期负面影 响。 当地时间2025年5月3日，94岁的"股神"沃伦·巴菲特在伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会上，以一贯的犀利 风格向美国政府的贸易政策"开炮"。 巴菲特多次强调"他国繁荣≠美国受损"的逻辑，试图打破零和博弈的思维定式。" 自由贸易VS保护主义：巴菲特的"天平" 巴菲特用历史与现实对比，阐释贸易的本质。他提到，250年前的美国凭借烟草、棉花等产业崛起为工 业强国，正是依托开放的市场和全球分工。 如今，美国若自诩优越、以关税为武器疏远他国，则是"巨大错误"——"当75亿人对美国心怀不满，而3 亿人还在自鸣得意时，这种态度既不正确也不明智"。 他进一步用经济逻辑拆解关税的代价："加征关税本质是向商品征税，最终埋单的是普通消费者。"这一 观点直指特朗普政府频繁动用关税手段的后果——通货膨胀压力加剧，企业供应链动荡。 数据显示，伯克希尔2025年一季度经营利润同比暴跌63.59%，财报直言关税政策带来"重大不确定性"。 繁荣的悖论：全球共赢为何遭质疑？ 如果世界更富庶且无人牺牲，美国也会更繁荣、更安全。"他以伯克希尔的全球化布 ...

就在4月的最后几天，中国贸促会举办的新闻发布会上，公开了一份非常敏感的数据报告。针对中国1100多家外贸企业的调查问卷显示，近50%的企业表 示会减少对美业务，而75.3%的企业考虑开拓新兴市场，减少对美国贸易占比。毫不客气的说，这份报告数据，信号非常强烈，直接击穿了当前的中美关 系。最后的"压舱石"正在沉底。 很直观的说，当前的中美经贸关系，已经在过去几年，发生了结构性剧变。2025年1至3月，中美货物贸易额仅占中国进出口总额的11.2%，这一比例甚至 低于2001年中国加入WTO时的水平。美国从中国第一大贸易伙伴跌至第三，被东盟、欧盟反超。与此同时，中国对"一带一路"沿线国家贸易额占比攀升 至42%，RCEP框架下的原产地证书签发量同比增长27%。 更深远的结构性矛盾在于，美国无法接受中国在高端制造业的崛起。中国制造业占全球比重达28.7%，半导体自给率从2018年的15%跃升至2025年的 45%，新能源汽车全球市场份额突破60%。当"中国制造"从袜子升级至芯片，美国的技术霸权遭遇釜底抽薪，只能用"制裁""处罚"，来延缓衰落进程。 必须指出的是，当压舱石沉底，中美关系将步入"零和博弈"的危险水域。现在一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's imposition of high tariffs on solar products from four Southeast Asian countries, particularly Cambodia at 3521%, is causing significant disruption in the international market and is seen as an attempt to protect the U.S. solar industry while inadvertently harming it [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The tariffs are highly targeted, with Vietnam facing a 395.5% tariff, Thailand 375.2%, Malaysia 34.4%, and Cambodia facing severe penalties for non-cooperation in investigations [3]. - The U.S. solar industry has a rigid demand for affordable solar products, and the tariffs are expected to increase production costs for U.S. solar developers, contradicting the intended protective measures [3][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. has seen a significant drop in solar product imports from Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam, while imports from countries like Laos and Indonesia have increased, indicating a shift in global solar trade dynamics [6]. - The tariffs are likely to disrupt the long-standing reliance of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supply chains, particularly affecting those who depend on imported components [6][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The tariffs are perceived as an attempt to sever the indirect supply chain from China through Southeast Asia, as China dominates global solar product shipments [4][9]. - Southeast Asian countries are unlikely to choose between the U.S. and China, as their economies are deeply intertwined with Chinese supply chains, particularly in electronics [6][9]. Group 4: Regional Economic Cooperation - The completion of the China-Laos railway has enhanced regional economic ties, with Laos experiencing a 127% increase in exports to China, demonstrating the benefits of reduced logistics costs and tariff pressures [7]. - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area are facilitating zero tariffs on 95% of goods, allowing Southeast Asian countries to pivot towards China despite U.S. tariffs [9].