Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below $80,000, marking its lowest point in seven months, and a total market loss of $1.2 trillion in just six weeks, surpassing the GDP of many G20 countries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On December 1, nearly $1 billion in liquidations occurred across the market, affecting over 270,000 investors, leading to a widespread panic [2]. - Bitcoin, once considered a "digital gold" and a safe haven asset, has been revealed as a risk amplifier, particularly during this downturn [4][5]. - The tightening of liquidity has been a core factor in the market's decline, as the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have not materialized due to resilient economic data and persistent inflation [7]. Group 2: Institutional Influence - The current market downturn is characterized by institutional investors taking the lead, contrasting with the previous "crypto winter" of 2022, where retail investors were more prominent [12]. - The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has led to significant institutional capital entering the market, but this has altered the pricing dynamics, making the market more sensitive to macroeconomic conditions [13][15]. - Recent data indicates that Bitcoin ETFs have seen withdrawals of $4.6 billion in just one month, with iShares Bitcoin Trust experiencing its first-ever consecutive weeks of outflows [15][17]. Group 3: Psychological and Technical Levels - The breach of the $80,000 psychological support level has triggered automatic sell orders, exacerbating the price decline and leading to significant losses in Ethereum and other altcoins [18][20]. - The overall performance of altcoins, with Ethereum hitting a four-month low and other cryptocurrencies like SOL and ADA dropping over 20%, indicates a broader market retreat beyond Bitcoin [20][22]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Sentiment - The upcoming U.S. cryptocurrency tax regulations are likely to prompt further selling by institutions looking to realize tax losses, adding to the market's woes [23]. - Concerns over compliance issues and capital flight are contributing to a harsh winter for the cryptocurrency industry, suggesting that the recent price drop is not merely a correction but a redefinition of asset attributes [25]. - The narrative of cryptocurrencies as safe-haven or decentralized assets has been challenged, revealing their nature as high-beta risk assets reliant on liquidity and market expectations [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to rise initially and then decline, driven by the current liquidity cycle not being over [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming year will see a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which is contributing to a tight short-term funding market in the U.S. [1] - Short-term interest rates are currently higher than the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate, indicating a need for the Fed to lower interest rates next week [1] - The Federal Reserve has abandoned its plan to reduce its balance sheet, which is currently around $6 trillion, due to issues in the repurchase market [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The potential for the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet again could lead to new heights, resulting in an increase in risk asset prices [1] - The current market conditions suggest that shorting risk assets may not be a favorable strategy, as there is a belief that risk assets will rise before eventually falling [1]

Core Insights - Crypto-related stocks experienced a decline as Bitcoin (BTC) fell towards $84,000 during U.S. morning hours, impacting major companies in the sector [1] - The overall market sentiment was affected by signals of potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, leading to a broader pullback in risk assets [3][4] Company Performance - Shares of Coinbase (COIN), Gemini (GEMI), and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) dropped nearly 6% [1] - Crypto mining stocks such as MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Hive Digital (HIVE) saw declines between 7% and 9% [1] - MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell 11% to its lowest level since October 2024 after announcing a new cash reserve of $1.44 billion and reducing its 2025 profit outlook [1] Broader Market Impact - American depositary receipts of Metaplanet (MTPLF) declined by 10%, while KindlyMD (NAKA) and American Bitcoin (ABTC) fell by 9.9% and 6.7%, respectively [2] - Ether-focused companies like BitMine (BMNR) and SharpLink Gaming (SBET) experienced losses exceeding 10%, alongside Solana-centric firms DeFi Development (DFDV) and Solana Company (HSDT) [2] - The Nasdaq index dropped almost 1%, and the S&P 500 Index fell by 0.3% during the early session [3] Market Sentiment - The unexpected news of potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan surprised many traders, contributing to the decline in risk assets [4] - Cryptocurrency continues to be viewed as a risk-on asset class, reflecting macroeconomic events continuously [4]

Core Viewpoint - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments have heightened risk aversion in the market, particularly amid concerns regarding the overvaluation of technology stocks and other high-risk assets [1] Group 1 - Ueda's remarks contribute to a broader sentiment of caution among investors [1] - The current market environment is characterized by worries about the inflated valuations of tech stocks [1] - There is an increasing focus on the risks associated with investing in risky assets [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week (20251117 - 20251123), major stock indices in the US and Hong Kong, as well as A - shares in China, all declined. The Fed may turn dovish again, and there are investment opportunities in domestic equity markets and potential for gold prices to remain strong [2][3][15]. - The A - share market is likely to strengthen in subsequent oscillations, and attention can be paid to investment opportunities in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaic, coal, steel, chemical, chip, computing power, and artificial intelligence. The bond market will likely continue to oscillate within a narrow range, and gold prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation [16]. 3. Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - US stock indices and the Hang Seng Index declined. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by - 2.74%, - 1.95%, and - 1.91% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by - 6.06%. The Hang Seng Index changed by - 5.09% [2]. - A - shares tumbled across the board. The wind All - A Index changed by - 5.13%, and various indices such as CSI A100, CSI 300, etc., also declined [3]. - Blue - chip and growth sectors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both dropped. The Shanghai Composite 50 and STAR Market 50 in Shanghai declined, and the Shenzhen Component 100 and ChiNext Index in Shenzhen also fell. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index changed by - 9.04% [4]. - Among industries, banking, consumer goods, etc., had relatively small declines, and bond - related ETFs led the gains. All 30 CITIC industries fell, with banking, food and beverage, media, and home appliances having declines of less than 2.0% [5]. Bond Market Performance - The national debt market fluctuated within a narrow range. The 10 - year national debt futures main contract rose 0.01% compared to November 14, 2025, and the yield of the 10 - year active national debt bond increased by 0.26 BP [6]. - Fund prices mainly decreased, and the central bank made a net injection in open - market operations. As of November 21, 2025, R007 increased by 0.07 BP, and DR007 decreased by 2.65 BP. The central bank made a net injection of 554 billion yuan [7]. - The bond market leverage level decreased. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 74.4 trillion yuan on November 14, 2025, to 72.9 trillion yuan on November 21, 2025 [9]. - US Treasury yields declined, and the yield curve shifted downward overall. As of November 21, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield changed by - 8 BP to 4.06% [10]. Exchange Rate and Commodity Market Performance - The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index rose 0.87%, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen all increased. The exchange rates of the US dollar against the offshore and on - shore RMB also rose [11]. - Gold prices showed a split between the international and domestic markets. The London gold spot price rose 0.04%, while the domestic Shanghai gold spot and futures prices fell by 2.49% and 2.79% respectively [12]. US Economic Data and Fed Expectations - In September, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US exceeded expectations, but the number of unemployed people increased significantly. The unemployment rate reached 4.4%, rising for the fourth consecutive month [13]. - The latest futures data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is again higher than 50%. Due to the delayed release of non - farm data, the Fed's December decision will be based on September data [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Overseas: The US September non - farm payrolls added 119,000, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a four - year high. The October non - farm and CPI data were cancelled due to the government shutdown, and the November data will be released after the December FOMC. Fed officials' statements have made the market extremely sensitive. The divergence within the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of a December rate cut has fluctuated. After a series of hawkish remarks from officials, the probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly, but after "Fed's third - in - command" Williams' dovish statement, the market's bet on a December rate cut rose from about 30% to 70%, driving a slight repair of risk assets. This week, focus on the US's September data [3]. - Domestic: Currently in an economic data and policy vacuum period, the weakening of external risk appetite has disturbed the market. The A - share market fell below the 3900 mark last Friday, with a decline of 2.45%. Micro - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market sectors led the decline. With the increase in the Fed's rate - cut expectation and the recovery of overseas risk assets, the A - share market may rebound, but there is still a risk of a phased correction [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - 9 - month non - farm employment and unemployment rate were divergent: The September non - farm data exceeded expectations while the unemployment rate rose. The October employment report was cancelled, and the November data will be released after the December FOMC. The probability of a December rate cut rebounded from 30% to 70% [5]. - Employment in goods and services both recovered: In September, the goods sector added 10,000 jobs, the service sector added 87,000 jobs, and the government sector added 22,000 jobs [6]. - Hourly wage growth declined: The monthly wage growth rate in the goods sector decreased from 0.38% to 0.35%, and in the service sector, it decreased from 0.44% to 0.22% [6]. Asset Performance Equity - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks generally declined last week. The Wande All - A Index fell 5.13%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.90%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 5.09%. Different indices had different year - to - date performances, with the ChiNext Index up 36.35% year - to - date [9]. Bond - Domestic bond yields generally showed small fluctuations, while overseas bond yields had different changes. For example, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.00 BP, and the 10 - year German Treasury yield rose 4.00 BP [12]. Commodity - Most commodities declined last week. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 1.81%, the CRB Commodity Index fell 2.24%, and WTI crude oil fell 3.51% [13]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose 0.87 last week. The US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar against the offshore RMB had different exchange rate changes, and other major currencies against the RMB also showed different trends [15]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: High - frequency data includes the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, real estate transaction area, passenger car sales, and rebar apparent consumption [17][20]. - Overseas: High - frequency data includes Redbook commercial retail sales, unemployment benefit claims, US Treasury yield spreads, and FedWatch interest rate change probabilities [26][27]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include the November Dallas Fed business activity index, September US retail sales, PPI, housing price index, and other data from the US, as well as China's October industrial enterprise profit data and the eurozone's November industrial and economic sentiment indices [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to remain in high - level oscillation, and silver is likely to see a decline catalyzed by its risk - asset attributes. Short - term gold and silver have "bottom - fishing" value, and the new high of silver within the year can still be anticipated [6]. - The price of copper is expected to oscillate in the short term, but the long - term logic of price increase driven by consumption still exists. It is advisable to go long on dips in the long run, and opportunities for internal - external reverse arbitrage can be sought [79][84]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Performance - This week, London gold rose 0.04%, and London silver fell 5.97%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 78.4 last week to 83.1, the 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.82%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 100.15 [6]. Price Analysis - Silver's sharp decline this week was mainly affected by the fall in overseas risk appetite and the decline in equities. It is difficult for silver to break through the previous high, and the callback exceeded expectations. The risk is relatively controllable [6]. - The gold - silver ratio rose from 78.4 last week to 83 [54]. Transaction - related Data - Overseas: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 was 1.479 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was 22.4 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 was 0.329 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was 0.285 dollars per ounce [12][15]. - Domestic: The gold futures - spot spread was - 4.26 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 17 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.14 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 63 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [19][21][25][29]. - Delivery cost: The cost of long - term and short - term cross - month positive arbitrage delivery for gold and silver was calculated, and the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold was mainly paid by longs to shorts, while that for silver was mainly paid by shorts to longs [32][33][34][35][36]. Inventory and Position - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.5%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465 tons to 14,329 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. Gold futures inventory remained unchanged, silver futures inventory decreased by 57 tons to 519 tons, and the gold exchange's silver inventory decreased by 90 tons to 774 tons [38][40][43]. - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both decreased slightly. The SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased by 8.36 tons, and the SLV silver ETF inventory increased by 39.5 tons [45][51][53]. Copper Market Performance - The price of copper is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a price range of 85,000 - 89,000 yuan per ton [79]. Fundamental Analysis - Macro: There is strong uncertainty in the macro - environment. The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and the US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed [84]. - Supply: The logic of tight raw material supply is continuously weakening. Copper concentrate imports are increasing, and scrap copper imports and domestic production are also rising. Domestic refined copper production remains at a high level [84]. - Demand: High copper prices suppress consumption in the short term, but the long - term consumption recovery logic is strong, driven by factors such as AI data centers, energy storage, and new energy vehicles [84]. - Inventory: Global total inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in LME inventory. Nearly 45% of global visible inventory is COMEX warrant inventory, and copper inventory outside the US is relatively low [84]. Transaction - related Data - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE, INE, LME, and COMEX copper all declined. The LME copper price volatility was around 7.5%, and the SHFE copper volatility was around 13% [88]. - Term spread: The term structure of SHFE copper weakened marginally, and the LME copper spot premium weakened [90][92]. - Position: COMEX copper positions increased, while LME and SHFE positions decreased. The LME commercial short net positions increased [93][99]. - Spot premium: The domestic copper spot premium strengthened, and the Southeast Asian copper premium remained stable [103][105]. - Inventory: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level fluctuations, while silver's decline is catalyzed by its risk - asset attributes. The short - term "bottom - fishing" value of gold and silver exists, but it still awaits drivers and catalysts. Gold's current adjustment is considered a monthly - scale jump, and silver is expected to reach a new high this year based on domestic and foreign spot contradictions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread** - For gold, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to $1.479 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was $22.4 per ounce [9]. - For silver, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.329 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was $0.285 per ounce [12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread** - The domestic gold spot - futures price spread was - 4.26 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - The domestic silver spot - futures price spread was 17 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. - **Inter - month Price Spread** - The gold inter - month price spread was 7.14 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - The silver inter - month price spread was 63 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [27]. - **Cost of Long - Short Spread Arbitrage in Near - and Far - month Contracts** - For gold, the cost of buying TD and short - selling Shanghai gold futures in near - and far - month contracts was calculated, with a total cost of 27.93 yuan per gram for buying TD and short - selling Shanghai gold futures in one case, and - 7.43 yuan per gram in another case [30][31]. - For silver, the cost of buying TD and short - selling Shanghai silver futures in near - and far - month contracts was calculated, with a total cost of 24.97 yuan per kilogram for one case and 167.53 yuan per kilogram for another case [32][33]. - **Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot at Shanghai Gold Exchange** - This week, the gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power, while the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [34]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.5% [36]. - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465 tons to 14,329 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8% [38]. - The gold futures inventory remained unchanged, the silver futures inventory decreased by 57 tons to 519 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 90 tons to 774 tons [41]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions in Gold and Silver** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position in COMEX gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net - long position in silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Positions** - The inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 8.36 tons [49]. - The inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 39.5 tons [51]. - **Gold - to - Silver Ratio** - This week, the gold - to - silver ratio rose from 78.4 last week to 83 [54]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates** - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 5.6% [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates** - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates returned, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance** - No specific summary content was provided in the text, but relevant data trends were presented in the figures [67]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance** - No specific summary content was provided in the text, but relevant data trends were presented in the figures [70]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions** - No specific content was provided in the text. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index** - No specific content was provided in the text. - **Probability of Fed Rate Cuts** - No specific content was provided in the text.

Core Insights - The recent decline in Bitcoin, which has breached significant support levels, suggests a potential weakness in risk assets as the year comes to a close [1] - Currently, Bitcoin's performance shows an inverse relationship with the volatility of the S&P 500 index, indicating a correlation between cryptocurrency and traditional equity markets [1] - There is a possibility of momentum growth for Bitcoin by 2026, suggesting a longer-term bullish outlook despite current market conditions [1] - The current market downturn may have reached a bottom, and once Wall Street adjusts its positions, there could be substantial upside potential [1]

Market Sentiment & Positioning - Bank of America's global fund manager survey indicates that bullish positioning is a headwind for risk assets, not a tailwind [1] - Extremely low cash levels at 37% are considered a "sell signal" [1] - Global investors are most overweight on stocks since February 25 and most overweight on commodities since September 2022 [1] Investment Concerns & Risks - Fund managers believe corporations are "overinvested" for the first time in nearly 20 years [1] - 54% of respondents view long positions in the Magnificent Seven as the most crowded trade [1] - 45% of respondents consider an AI bubble to be the biggest tail risk [1] - Overheated conditions will face further correction if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates [1] Vulnerable Markets - Emerging markets and banks are most susceptible to a typical risk-off move in the fourth quarter [1]