英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 3 日 多重利空导致 A 股下跌，需耐心等待市场企稳 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 对于市场的下跌，投资者无需过分悲观，也不能掉以轻心，需理性看待市场 波动，区分短期回调与长期趋势。趋势上，需耐心等待，待市场情绪企稳、资金 流动性改善、基本面出现明确利好后，再逐步加大布局力度。 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周一晨报提醒，短期来看，成交量逐步萎缩，市场资金观望情绪浓厚。随着 春节临近，市场资金面可能出现季节性收紧，结构性博弈或是主基调。市场走势 如我们预期，周一沪深三大指数全线走低，贵金属、有色金属板块领跌，与之形 成对比的是，特高压、酿酒等板块表现活跃，成为少数亮点。 纵观周一市场下跌，其导火索可追溯至上周五外盘贵金属市场的大幅波动， 直接影响了大宗商品市场，进而传导至 A 股相关板块。从触发因素来看，沃什将 被任命为新美联储主席引发市场对全球流动性政策的重新预判，国内外期货交易 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.48% on the first trading day of February 2026, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2025 [1] - Some funds shifted from cyclical and technology sectors to defensive sectors such as agriculture and consumer goods, while the overall strategy remains focused on AI technology and cyclical sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including overseas liquidity expectations due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which raised concerns about tightening financial conditions [2] - The commodity market's high volatility, particularly in gold and silver prices, also contributed to the market downturn [2] - The approach of the Chinese New Year holiday has led to increased market caution and observation [2] Group 3 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the current market issues are primarily due to overtrading of trend assets, and the weak dollar cycle is not ending but rather shifting in logic [3] - The long-term logic of "cyclical Alpha, supply constraints + new economic demand + strategic resource security + weak dollar" remains intact [3][4] Group 4 - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that a prolonged period of market fluctuation is expected before a new upward trend emerges, with a focus on AI applications and the chemical sector [4] - The AI industry continues to progress, with potential gradual transition towards application, while the cyclical Alpha recovery has not yet reached extreme values [4] Group 5 - Guotai Junan believes that after the market decline, there is potential for stabilization and a recovery in the upward trend before the Chinese New Year, maintaining a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market [5] - The focus is shifting towards domestic demand, which is expected to enhance the economic outlook and asset returns [5] Group 6 - Emerging technologies are seen as a main investment theme, with recommendations for sectors such as internet, media, computing, and robotics [6] - The expansion of domestic demand is identified as a key growth driver, with recommendations for food and beverage, consumer services, and aviation sectors [6] - The financial sector is viewed as a stabilizing force, benefiting from the growth in wealth management demand, with recommendations for insurance, brokerage, and banking [6] Group 7 - Suggested ETFs for investment include: - AI applications/emerging technology: Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH), Media ETF (516190.SH) - Domestic demand: Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) - Financial sector: Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190.SH) - Broad market: CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH) [7]

Core Viewpoint - The transition towards "new and old coexisting" for institutional investors is occurring, indicating a shift from "new surpassing old" in 2025 to a balanced allocation in 2026, emphasizing the need to invest in both AI technology and cyclical sectors like manufacturing and commodities [1][3]. Group 1: Technology Sector Rebalancing - The essence of the "new" is the downward movement of AI technology, transitioning towards the fourth stage of supply-demand gaps, with upstream gaps in copper, storage, and power equipment, and downstream gaps in AI applications and components [1][3]. - The internal rebalancing within technology indicates a need to avoid simplistic trading strategies based on risk preferences [3]. Group 2: Export and Overseas Business Rebalancing - The "old" aspect reflects a shift in exports and overseas business towards the midstream, with traditional industries stabilizing and growing profits as they move from downstream manufacturing to midstream sectors like engineering machinery, wind power, chemicals, and industrial metals [1][3]. - The rebalancing in overseas business highlights the increasing profitability and growth potential of midstream manufacturing compared to downstream exports [3][24]. Group 3: Resource Pricing Rebalancing - In 2026, resource pricing may not align with the assumption of a consistently weak dollar, suggesting a potential for a stronger dollar, emphasizing the return to commodity attributes and a decline in financial attributes [1][4]. - The focus on resource pricing indicates that commodities driven by supply-demand fundamentals are more likely to see price increases, making them attractive for continued investment [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investor Trends - Observations from Q4 2025 indicate a clear consensus among institutional investors on AI technology, overseas equipment, and globally priced resources as key investment areas, with these sectors showing significant gains in the A-share market [2][5]. - The increase in FOF products and the rise of passive funds reflect a strong demand for stable, income-generating investment products, while active funds are experiencing a decline [5][41]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - In Q4 2025, institutional investors increased their holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, while reducing exposure in pharmaceuticals, computing, electronics, media, and renewable energy [5][6]. - The allocation towards AI technology is showing divergence, with a decrease in holdings for sectors with weaker earnings visibility, while sectors with strong earnings, like CPO, are seeing increased investment [6][10].

Core Conclusion - The institutional investors are shifting towards a "rebalancing" strategy for 2026, transitioning from "new triumphs over old" in 2025 to a "dance of new and old" in 2026. This indicates a need to allocate to both AI technologies and traditional cyclical sectors like manufacturing and commodities, marking a significant rebalancing trend [1][2]. Group 1: Rebalancing Trends - The rebalancing involves a focus on AI technology moving downstream, addressing supply-demand gaps in the fourth stage, with upstream gaps in copper, storage, and power equipment, and downstream gaps in AI applications and components [1][2]. - Traditional industries are stabilizing and growing profits from overseas operations, transitioning from downstream manufacturing to upstream sectors such as engineering machinery, wind power, chemicals, and industrial metals [3][4]. - The pricing of resource commodities in 2026 may not align with a consistently weak dollar assumption, suggesting a potential for stronger dollar conditions and a return to commodity fundamentals, making certain resource commodities more attractive for investment [3][4]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Insights - By Q4 2025, institutional investors showed a clear consensus on allocating to AI technology, overseas equipment, and globally priced resource commodities, which were the leading sectors in the A-share market prior to the Spring Festival [1][2]. - The share of technology and overseas sectors in A-share profits (excluding finance) is expected to approach 40% by 2025, indicating a significant shift towards high-end technology and manufacturing or export-oriented sectors [1][2]. - Observations from Q4 2025 indicate a notable increase in FOF products and a rise in demand for stable income-generating products, reflecting a strong interest in diversified asset allocation [4][5]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Changes - In Q4 2025, the top sectors for institutional investment included non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, while sectors like pharmaceuticals, computing, electronics, and media saw reductions in investment [5][6]. - The TMT sector's allocation has decreased to 37.95% due to mixed performance in earnings, with a notable increase in positions in high-performing areas like optical modules, while sectors with weaker earnings like integrated circuits and computing equipment saw reductions [6][7]. - The investment in resource commodities, particularly in non-ferrous and chemical sectors, has increased significantly, indicating a bullish outlook on these commodities due to expected price increases [6][7].

周一的贵金属市场延续周五下跌趋势，现货黄金一度跌到4400美元关口。 现在的局面非常清晰：资金获利了结，杠杆资金正在被强制出清。 现货白银也一度跌到71美元附近。 多家研究机构认为，尽管长期的地缘博弈和债务逻辑未变，但短期内，不要试图在雪崩时伸手去接"带血的筹码"。此时的下跌是市场在测试新任美联储主 席的底线，也是对前期疯狂投机情绪的暴力修正。 金银暴跌：不仅是沃什，更是去杠杆的连锁反应 本次暴跌并非单一因素所致，而是政策预期、交易拥挤度与交易所干预的共振。 1. 导火索：沃什获提名，鹰派预期升温。 华泰证券与天风证券均指出，特朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为新任美联储主席是直接触发剂。沃什被视为"鹰派"，其核心主张包括"降息+缩表"。 天风证券补充，沃什曾在2006-2011年任职期间以"通胀鹰派"著称，市场担忧其上任后美联储独立性危机降温，导致美元反弹，流动性收紧预期压制了贵 金属。 2. 机制性杀跌：交易所联手"降温"。 华泰证券与财通证券强调了交易所干预的影响。CME（芝商所）和上期所几乎同时提高保证金比例。CME在1月底连续两次上调黄金和白银保证金，其中 白银从11%上调至15%；上期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the A-share market is primarily driven by external liquidity shocks and internal capital withdrawal, with a significant impact from the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve chairman [2]. Group 1: Market Decline Reasons - The core trigger for the market drop is the hawkish expectation of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, leading to a global liquidity repricing [2]. - The A-share market, which has been largely liquidity-driven since the bull market began on September 24, 2024, is particularly sensitive to changes in policy expectations [2]. - Domestic factors, including reduced leverage by exchanges and significant ETF redemptions, have further suppressed market sentiment, with a record net redemption of 780 billion yuan in January [2]. Group 2: A-share Market Outlook - The current pricing of the A-share market reflects a certain bias against the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with expectations that the new chairman will balance interest rate cuts with the realities of dollar liquidity [3]. - As the market approaches a reasonable valuation, regulatory goals for cooling the market will likely be achieved, leading to a potential shift towards more positive policy [3]. - Historical patterns suggest a strong likelihood of a spring rally between the Lunar New Year and the Two Sessions, with a historical probability of around 90% for market gains during this period [3]. - Defensive attributes are expected from undervalued domestic assets during periods of external volatility, as evidenced by the resilience of banking and food and beverage sectors [3]. - Following stabilization of market sentiment, there is potential for continued investment in AI technology and overseas manufacturing, alongside increased allocation to high-dividend sectors like banking and consumer goods to enhance portfolio resilience [3].

周一的贵金属市场延续周五下跌趋势，现货黄金一度跌到4400美元关口。 现货白银也一度跌到71美元附近。 现在的局面非常清晰： 资金获利了结，杠杆资金正在被强制出清。 多家研究机构认为，尽管长期的地缘博弈和债务逻辑未变， 但短期内，不要试图在雪崩时伸手去接"带血的筹码"。 此时的下跌是市场在测试新任美联储主席 的底线，也是对前期疯狂投机情绪的暴力修正。 金银暴跌：不仅是沃什，更是去杠杆的连锁反应 本次暴跌并非单一因素所致，而是政策预期、交易拥挤度与交易所干预的共振。 1. 导火索：沃什获提名，鹰派预期升温。 华泰证券与天风证券均指出，特朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为新任美联储主席是直接触发剂。沃什被视为"鹰派"，其核心主张包括"降息+缩表"。 天风证券补充，沃什曾在2006-2011年任职期间以"通胀鹰派"著称，市场担忧其上任后美联储独立性危机降温，导致美元反弹，流动性收紧预期压制了贵金属。 2. 机制性杀跌：交易所联手"降温"。 华泰证券与财通证券强调了交易所干预的影响。CME（芝商所）和上期所几乎同时提高保证金比例。CME在1月底连续两次上调黄金和白银保证金，其中白银 从11%上调至15%； ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to decline, with silver dropping 7% and gold falling 4.7%, breaching the $4500 mark, indicating a significant market correction driven by profit-taking and forced liquidation of leveraged positions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent drop in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including policy expectations, trading congestion, and exchange interventions [5]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has heightened hawkish expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity, which negatively impacts precious metals [5][10]. - Exchanges like CME and SHFE have raised margin requirements, contributing to the market's downward pressure [5][7]. Group 2: Speculative Positioning - Prior to the crash, silver was one of the most crowded long positions globally, with extreme speculative positioning indicated by a 14-day RSI for gold exceeding 90, marking a historic high [7]. - The volatility index for silver reached 111, the highest on record, suggesting a precarious market environment where any reversal in sentiment could lead to severe deleveraging [7][10]. Group 3: Macro Influences - Concerns over profitability in AI tech stocks, such as those reported by Microsoft and Tesla, have led to a risk-off sentiment in the U.S. stock market, prompting some investors to liquidate precious metals to maintain liquidity [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term turmoil, institutions believe the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, supported by ongoing demand from central banks and concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [11][13]. - The market is expected to experience a period of wide fluctuations, with cautious buying sentiment prevailing in the near term [13][14]. Group 5: Investment Timing - Investors are advised to be patient and wait for volatility to decrease before entering the market, with specific indicators such as implied volatility dropping below 20% being suggested as potential entry points [16]. - Historical data indicates that gold typically sees an average pullback of about 8% over approximately 18 days after reaching a peak, providing a reference for potential timing [16]. - There is a warning regarding the risk of price discrepancies between spot and futures markets, particularly for silver, which may still have room for further declines [16].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes the importance of "rebalancing" in the investment strategy for 2026, highlighting the dual focus on AI technology, overseas equipment, and global pricing resources as the main consensus among institutional investors [1][2] - The report indicates that the share of technology and overseas sectors in A-share profits (excluding finance) is approaching 40% by Q4 2025, suggesting a significant shift in the profit structure towards high-end technology and manufacturing, which is expected to reshape the A-share profit landscape and drive a new upward cycle in 2026-2027 [1][2] - The report outlines a transition from "new triumphing over old" in 2025 to "new and old dancing together" in 2026, where "new" refers to AI technology moving downstream and "old" refers to traditional industries stabilizing and growing through overseas business [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that global pricing resources, particularly gold, are experiencing a shift in asset allocation due to narratives of de-globalization and financialization, with a notable increase in trading sentiment driven by interest rate cuts and a weak dollar [2][3] - It is noted that the pricing of resource commodities is becoming increasingly differentiated, with financial attributes of resource pricing outperforming those based on commodity attributes [2][3] - The report stresses the need to be cautious of the assumption that the dollar will remain weak throughout 2026, as there may be a return to commodity attributes and a decline in financial attributes, making supply-demand fundamentals more critical for resource price increases [3] Group 3 - Observations from Q4 2025 indicate a significant increase in institutional holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communications, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, while reductions were noted in pharmaceuticals, computing, electronics, media, and power equipment [9][10] - The report identifies a divergence in institutional investment in the AI industry chain, with a decrease in holdings in sectors with weaker earnings visibility, while sectors with strong earnings visibility, such as optical modules, saw increases [10][11] - The report also notes that institutional investors are increasingly favoring resource commodities that benefit from price increases, particularly in the non-ferrous and chemical sectors, indicating a strategic shift towards these areas [10][11]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growing concern over hair loss and the challenge consumers face in selecting effective hair growth products from a plethora of options [1] - A comprehensive evaluation of five representative products is provided, focusing on scientific criteria to guide consumers in making informed choices [1] Evaluation Criteria - The assessment is based on five scientific dimensions: authenticity of ingredients, effectiveness in preventing hair loss, ability to promote hair growth, safety and compatibility, and compliance with quality standards [1][2] Product Evaluations - **Groland Scalp Anti-Aging Essence**: Utilizes AI technology for innovative ingredient discovery, featuring a dual-component system that activates hair follicles and optimizes the scalp environment [3][4] - **Minoxidil Solutions (Top 2 and Top 3)**: Both products utilize minoxidil at different concentrations for men and women, focusing on improving blood circulation to hair follicles to stabilize hair volume [11][12] - **Bawang Anti-Hair Loss Liquid**: Based on traditional herbal wisdom, it aims to improve scalp health through gentle conditioning, suitable for users preferring natural formulations [14] - **Furla Anti-Hair Loss Shampoo**: Combines cleansing and basic anti-hair loss care, ideal for oily scalps with mild hair loss issues [16] Target Audience - Groland is suitable for individuals facing various types of hair loss, including androgenetic alopecia and telogen effluvium [6] - Minoxidil products are targeted at those with diagnosed androgenetic alopecia who can commit to long-term use [11][12] - Bawang is recommended for users with sensitive scalps or early-stage hair loss seeking gentle care [14] - Furla is ideal for those with oily scalps looking for convenient daily care [16] Key Highlights - Groland's innovative AI-designed molecules represent a significant advancement in hair growth solutions [8] - The dual mechanism of activating hair follicles and optimizing the scalp environment addresses the full cycle of hair growth [9] - All products evaluated have met regulatory standards, ensuring quality and safety [10]