1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure of weakening external demand is emerging, and the bond market is expected to strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The negative impact of trade frictions is starting to show, with the official manufacturing PMI in April falling short of expectations. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is certain. Although high - frequency indicators related to domestic demand perform well, their impact on the bond market is limited. The marginal easing of trade conflicts mainly affects market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it presents a buying opportunity [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From April 21 - 27, treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. On Monday, with a relatively balanced capital market and a slight upward revision of broad - money expectations, treasury bond futures rose. On Tuesday, with a calm news environment and balanced capital, the market expected the April PMI to weaken, leading to a significant rise in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, although the April manufacturing PMI was below expectations, treasury bond futures slightly corrected as the market had already priced in the news. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] - **Next Week's Outlook**: The market is still a mix of bullish and bearish factors, but the bullish force is expected to prevail, and treasury bond futures may attempt to break upwards. Negative factors mainly affect market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it is a good opportunity for bulls to increase positions. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is clear. If some indicators exceed market expectations, the bond market may fall temporarily, presenting a buying opportunity [14][15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 32 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 1350.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 1346.97 billion yuan, a change of - 5406.91 billion yuan and + 2149.45 billion yuan from last week respectively. 29 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 930.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 926.97 billion yuan, a change of - 980.31 billion yuan and - 698.15 billion yuan from last week respectively. 168 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 2493.40 billion yuan and a net financing of - 859.70 billion yuan, a change of - 7184.40 billion yuan and - 2631.10 billion yuan from last week respectively [23] - **Secondary Market**: Most treasury bond yields declined. By April 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.45%, 1.51%, 1.63%, and 1.83% respectively, down 3.76, 3.99, 3.25, and 9.75 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread compressed by 4.17bp to 16.80bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread widened by 0.74bp to 12.19bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread compressed by 6.50bp to 19.96bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.57%, and 1.66% respectively, down 0.44, 3.75, and 3.56bp from the previous weekend [28][29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 41761, 59303, 65919, and 83215 lots respectively, with changes of + 1358, + 7676, - 377, and - 20221 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 146910, 205789, 236575, and 133653 lots respectively, with changes of + 3958, + 2418, + 13819, and + 4959 lots from the previous weekend [38][41] - **Basis and IRR**: A positive - carry strategy for short - term varieties is recommended. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the positive - carry strategy becomes more prominent [45] - **Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads**: By April 30, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.264, - 0.300, - 0.145, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.010, - 0.010, + 0.020, and 0.000 yuan from the previous weekend. The futures roll - over rhythm is fast, and the open interest of the 06 contract significantly exceeds the seasonal level of previous contracts. The roll - over pressure is high, and the spread of TS2506 - 09 is expected to continue to decline [48] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank conducted 11503 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with 5045 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6458 billion yuan. By April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, up 18.09, 16.28, 19.30, and 12.40 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level [53][55][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose slightly. By May 2, the US dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.0424 from the previous weekend. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.33%, up 4 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 254 basis points. There are signs of easing in trade conflicts, and both the US dollar and the RMB exchange rates strengthened slightly. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data in April led the market to lower its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts, causing the US treasury bond yields to rise slightly [61][62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell across the board. By April 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3478.21, 6106.89, and 1621.01 points respectively, down 61.07, 41.83, and 35.59 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also fell. By April 30, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.59, 4.39, and 7.59 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.19, 0.19, and 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [65] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Adopt a bullish approach towards the bond market, focus on the strategy of buying on dips. Consider the positive - carry opportunities of short - term varieties. Wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of TS06 - 09 [2]

博弈资金进一步转松？ 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 刚性的资金、盘整的债市 利率专题 4 月以来，资金面整体呈现"供需结构改善、价格相对稳定"的状态，在市 场对于资金面季节性转松的期待中，公开市场投放确实出现了改善，但资金价格 仍在政策利率上方窄幅震荡。 而受制于较为刚性的资金价格，短端下行空间已相对有限，长端的约束在加 大，当前 10 年-1 年国债利差仍在 2024 年以来的较低分位，曲线平坦化已进入 相对极致的状态，长端继续下探的动力也相对不足。 当前随着债市步入横盘震荡期，交易难度在增加，对此，如何看待？ ➢ 货币政策取向再理解 由于当前实体消费和投资意愿待进一步提振，仅货币政策的扩张在提振经济 上或难以发挥出最大功效，若增量资金不断涌入债市、资金利率持续处于偏低水 平，也将增加利率风险。此外，当前外部环境复杂多变，货币政策保持定力，或 也旨在为后续应对留足空间。而运行于政策利率上方、呈现窄幅震荡的资金利率 便是多重考量下的均衡之举，与货币政策的支持性立场不矛盾，具体而言： （1）近年来，我国货币信贷增长已逐渐由供给约束转为需求约束，金融机 构此前在"规模情结"的驱使下，信贷投放力度较大，超出 ...

Group 1 - Company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.06% to a latest price of 105.57 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.15% over the past six months as of April 29, 2025 [3] - The liquidity of the company bond ETF showed a turnover of 0.85% with a transaction volume of 113 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month was 1.802 billion yuan [3] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 13.258 billion yuan, with the latest share count at 12.6 million, marking a new high in the past month [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI data from Huaxi Securities on April 30 and the central bank's announcement of a buyout repurchase scale may act as catalysts for market volatility [4] - High-frequency data suggests that enterprises may be transitioning from "grabbing exports" to "grabbing trans-exports," indicating a potential for manufacturing sentiment to exceed market expectations [4] Group 3 - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) showed a mixed market with a latest quote of 117.39 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.04% over the past month as of April 29, 2025 [7] - The liquidity of the national debt ETF indicated a turnover of 3.77% with a transaction volume of approximately 55.33 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past week was 470 million yuan [7] - The latest scale of the national debt ETF reached 1.47 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past three months [7] Group 4 - The national development bond ETF (159651) increased by 0.03% to a latest price of 105.91 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.36% over the past year as of April 29, 2025 [10] - The liquidity of the national development bond ETF showed a turnover of 3.98% with a transaction volume of approximately 54.41 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past year was 617 million yuan [10] - The national development bond ETF experienced a significant growth in scale by 388 million yuan over the past six months, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [10] Group 5 - The three main members of the Ping An Fund bond ETF include the company bond ETF (511030), national development bond ETF (159651), and national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020), covering various types of bonds to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [11]

利率专题 5 月，债市关键词 2025 年 04 月 29 日 展望 5 月，基本面如何演绎？政策发力推进下，财政与货币如何配合？央行 态度和资金面怎么看？债市能否迎来破局？本文聚焦于此。 ➢ 4 月利率向下，曲线演绎牛平 从 4 月债市表现来看：上旬在"超预期对等关税"和"对应反制关税"背景 下，货币宽松预期进一步增强，催化利率快速下行，10 年国债收益率下至 1.63%， 30 年国债收益率下至 1.83%；进入中下旬，中美关税政策边际缓和，财政供给 放量预期和短期政策保持定力，多空交织下债市方向尚不明朗，维持窄幅波动。 结合高频数据来观察：4 月 EPMI 指数大幅回落 10.2 个百分点至 49.4%；4 月汽车全钢胎开工率和半钢胎开工率连续多周出现回落；4 月 SCFI 指数、BDI 指 数呈现下滑态势，表现弱于季节性水平，一定程度指向出口边际转弱。 （2）政府债供给压力如何？随着大行注资特别国债和超长期特别国债启动 发行，以及新增专项债供给可能提速，预估二季度政府债供给压力仍不小，5-6 月或是发行高峰，供给压力的抬升可能加大市场扰动，而当中的关键又在于，央 行会如何对冲操作以配合财政发力？ （3 ...

近期债市延续震荡格局。利率市场上下两难，债市波动幅度显著收窄，10年期国债收益率持续围绕 1.65%窄幅震荡。上周受关税争端缓和预期升温、中央政治局会议召开在即等影响，市场参与者情绪趋 于谨慎，债市维持区间震荡走势，呈现"看多但不做多"的观望态势。上周五召开的中央政治局会议释放 积极政策信号，但主要聚焦推动存量政策加快落地见效，并未推出实质性增量政策。政策力度未超市场 预期，降准降息预期再次落空，债市平衡格局延续。 从市场驱动逻辑分析，当前债市多空因素交织：一方面，出口承压将对二季度经济修复形成扰动，为货 币政策预留空间，基本面与政策环境为债市提供了做多支撑；另一方面，当前利率已逼近前期低点，关 税政策存在高度不确定性，从特朗普近期发言分析，关税争端短期有缓和的可能，同时国内稳增长政策 仍有发力预期，限制利率的下行空间，机构做多信心不足，观望情绪较浓。 第三，货币政策宽松必要性提升，但短期仍需要触发条件。4月中央政治局会议再提"适时降准降息"， 笔者认为，"适时"意味着货币工具仍要用在刀刃上，需要看到经济数据走低或市场压力的触发。本月 MLF超额续作5000亿元后，降准的概率有所降低，但超储率偏低、二季度政府 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April, the bond market first declined significantly and then fluctuated sideways under the influence of factors such as the unexpected US tariff policy, better Q1 fundamental data, and the repeated Sino - US tariff game. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped 15BP to 1.66%. The yield curve flattened in a bullish manner [1][8]. - In May, the supply of government bonds is expected to reach a peak, with the special treasury bonds entering the issuance peak and the accelerated implementation of new special bonds. The net supply of government bonds in May may be around 1.9 trillion yuan, reaching the annual high [2][49]. - The central bank is likely to conduct operations such as reverse repurchase and MLF net injection to support liquidity, and may restart treasury bond trading operations. Substantive loose monetary policies such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts are also expected, and the money market in May is expected to remain balanced and stable [3][56]. - The bond market is not bearish in the short - term. In May, attention should be paid to the allocation value of ultra - long - term bonds and the short - term trading opportunities. The 10 - year bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and appropriate incremental allocation can be made during adjustments [5][81]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Declined Significantly and Then Fluctuated Sideways, and the Yield Curve Flattened in a Bullish Manner - In April, affected by multiple factors, the bond market first declined and then fluctuated. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped 15.23BP to 1.66%, and the 1Y Treasury yield dropped 8.78BP to 1.45%. The term spread narrowed by 6.45BP to 21.05BP [1][8]. - Overseas, US inflation showed a cooling trend, the labor market remained resilient, and the US equivalent tariff policy led to a decline in global risk appetite. The US Treasury yield rose significantly due to liquidity issues caused by basis trading. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June [10]. 3.2 This Month's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 This Month's Bond Market Outlook: Supply Peak is Approaching, Pay Attention to the Central Bank's Attitude and Hedging Operations - **Fundamentals**: Q1 fundamental data recovered more than expected, but the macro - data led by exports may be under short - term pressure in Q2. In May, continue to focus on the continuation of strong social financing, the improvement of CPI, the impact of Sino - US trade frictions on exports, and the drag of external demand on PMI. Also, pay attention to the impact of the improvement of real - estate data on the fundamentals [2][33]. - **Supply**: In May, the special treasury bonds will enter the issuance peak, and the new special bonds will be accelerated. The net supply of government bonds is expected to be around 1.9 trillion yuan, reaching the annual high. The supply of ordinary treasury bonds and special bonds for replacing hidden debts may shrink [2][49]. - **Money Market**: The accelerated issuance of government bonds may disturb the money market, but the central bank is likely to conduct operations to support liquidity. The money market in May is expected to remain balanced and stable [3][56]. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting in April set a positive tone for macro - policies, but the incremental information was limited. Structural and aggregate monetary policy tools are expected to work together. Reserve - requirement ratio cuts may occur in May, while interest - rate cuts need to wait for the Fed to open the window [3][70]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In April, institutions increased their bond holdings, but there were obvious differences between bulls and bears. Banks were the main sellers, and other institutions were buyers. In May, there are opportunities for allocation in ultra - long - term bonds and trading in short - term bonds [4][75]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market is Not Bearish, Pay Attention to the Allocation Value of Ultra - long - term Bonds under the Supply Peak - In May, the main points of concern include the stability of the money market, the supply peak of government bonds, the implementation of loose policies, and the impact of external demand on the macro - economy. The bond market is not bearish in the short - term, and the 10 - year bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the allocation value of ultra - long - term bonds and short - term trading opportunities [80][81]. 3.3 Important Economic Calendar for May The report provides a list of important economic indicators to be released in May and their market expected values, including foreign exchange reserves, export and import data, PPI, CPI, and PMI [83].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been in a sideways trend for two weeks, and there are three reasons why interest rates cannot decline: the central bank's restrained use of monetary policy, the short - end's inability to decline restricting the long - end's decline, and the lingering concern of negative Carry [2][3][10] - After the Politburo meeting, the trading directions include grasping the central bank's operations and double - cut expectations, considering the impact of external shocks on fundamental pricing, and making appropriate strategy and position selections [14] - The bond market is about to confirm the economic fundamentals in April. Holding bonds during holidays may be a better strategy. In May, the peak of fiscal supply and loose monetary policy may lower the capital interest rate center. One can also take advantage of the widening spread between 30Y - 10Y bonds and extend the duration [15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for the bond market's sideways trend and non - decline of interest rates - The central bank's restrained use of monetary policy suppresses the downward imagination space of short - term bonds. In the TS2506 futures contract, there are two stages: in the first stage, the expectation of loose money led to the steepening of the contract and a high IRR; in the second stage, the positive arbitrage strategy value emerged, and the short - end interest rate was difficult to decline under the influence of capital interest rates and central bank operations [3][5] - The short - end's inability to decline restricts the long - end's decline. The current yield curve is extremely flat, with the 10Y - 1Y term spread approaching the lowest level in nearly 3 years at 21bp [7][9] - Negative Carry is still a concern but has been significantly alleviated. Although it is not the main contradiction currently, it may intensify if the bond market continues to move sideways [10] Trading directions after the Politburo meeting - Grasp the central bank's operations and double - cut expectations. Considering factors such as the fiscal supply peak in May - June, the impact of tariffs on the economy in the second quarter, and the low leverage ratio in the bond market, one can take advantage of the central bank's care for liquidity to bet on the downward opportunity of the yield curve [14] - Consider the impact of external shocks on fundamental pricing. Given the uncertainty of trade frictions, holding bonds during holidays may be a better strategy, and the impact of fundamentals on interest rate increases is relatively limited [14] - Make appropriate strategy and position selections. After the tax - payment peak in April, the capital market is expected to be balanced and loose in May - June. One can extend the duration by taking advantage of the widening spread between 30Y - 10Y bonds and wait for the interest rate to decline [14]

固收周度点评 20250427 债市蓄力，提前布局 2025 年 04 月 27 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭逸鸣 研究助理：何楠飞 执业证号：S0100522030001 执业证号：S0100123070014 邮箱：tanyiming@mszq.com 邮箱：henanfei@mszq.com ➢ 债市盘整期，蓄力破局 本周（4/21-4/25）债市震荡特征较为明显，上半周多空交织，关税政策反 复放大债市波动，周初税期走款压力下资金面有所收敛，市场处于 MLF 续作、 特别国债发行及降准落地的期待中，情绪较为纠结。进入后半周，债市震荡走强， 特别国债发行结果尚可，叠加当日公告的 MLF 续作 6000 亿元，资金价格有所 回落，提振债市表现，周五政治局会议落地，再提"适时降准降息"，但影响或边 际减弱，债市延续震荡格局。 4/21，债市震荡走弱，早盘 LPR 报价维持不变，税期走款扰动下，资金面 边际收敛，叠加股市低开高走，债市利率开盘后震荡上行，午后随着市场情绪有 所改善，转为震荡行情。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别变动 1.8、2.6、 1.7、1.9BP 至 1.4 ...

自4月2日美国宣布"对等关税"政策后，市场迅速上调国内货币政策宽松预期，进而带动国债收益率运行 区间下移。近期政策增量信号有限，市场认为货币政策调整的边际变化不大，焦点在于央行关键操作时 点。 ?4月21日，LPR报价维持不变，符合市场预期。一方面，一季度经济数据开局良好，贸易争端对我国出 口及经济基本面的影响有待时间和数据检验，在当前时点，前瞻性降息的必要性不高；另一方面，息差 及汇率的内外部压力仍较大，对货币政策进一步宽松形成制约。 上下驱动均不足 鉴于一季度经济开局良好、关税政策对基本面的影响尚未明确，市场对后续增量政策力度的预期不高。 中性情景为加快现有政策落地、加快特别国债等政府债发行节奏，以及围绕"两新"及民生加快财政支 出。 中债在4月3日、4月7日大幅走强后，转为高位震荡。从现券收益率来看，10年期国债活跃券收益率在本 周前3个交易日运行于1.645%~1.665%，30年期国债活跃券收益率运行于1.8660%~1.8995%。在期货市场 上，10年期、30年期、5年期、2年期国债期货主力合约本周前3个交易日累计跌幅分别为0.21%、 0.27%、0.19%和0.07%。 美国关税政策反复 当 ...