2026.02. 12 本文字数：2184，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 樊志菁 美国劳工部最新公布的数据显示，1月全美就业增长意外加速。劳动力市场企稳的迹象，可能让美联 储在一段时间内维持利率不变，同时让政策制定者继续观察通胀走势。不少市场观点也认为，考虑到 特朗普政府的政策，不要将数据视为就业形势的实质性转变。 新增岗位集中趋势 制造业就业小幅反弹，但自特朗普重返白宫以来已累计减少逾8万个岗位。零售、公用事业、休闲与 酒店业有小幅就业增长。 金融行业再减2.2万人。运输仓储、信息、采矿与伐木行业出现就业流失。与此同时，联邦政府就业 减少3.4万人，原因是部分2025年接受延迟辞职的员工正式退出。自2024年10月触顶以来，联邦政 府就业已累计减少32.7万人。 2026年1月非农新增分项 （图源：美国劳工统计局） 美国劳工统计局表示，1月非农就业人数增加13万人，为近13个月最大增速，去年12月数据经下修 后为新增4.8万人。 分项来看，当月医疗保健行业新增8.2万人，为2020年7月以来最大增幅，这一增幅远高于2025年月 均3.3万人的水平。社会援助行业新增4.2万人。建筑业新增3.3万人 ...

美国显示劳动力市场超预期强劲，促使市场推迟对美联储降息时点的预期，交易员普遍预计的首次降息时间从此前的6月推迟至7月。 美东时间11日周三公布的报告显示，美国1月新增非农就业人数为13万，远超市场共识预期的6.5万，为一年多来最大月度增幅；1月失业率并未如市场预期 企稳，反而降至4.3%；2025年全年就业数据遭遇大幅下修，显示去年劳动力市场实际表现远弱于此前认知。 华尔街机构普遍认为，强劲的就业数据降低了美联储在年中前降息的必要性，但并未完全排除今年降息的可能。多家机构仍预计今年将有两次降息，但时点 推迟至下半年。就业数据的强劲表现也缓解了市场对经济衰退的担忧，被视为风险资产的利好信号。 "新美联储通讯社"：重点是失业率稳定 Nick Timiraos在社交媒体上指出，对美联储而言，1月就业报告的重点将是近期失业率的稳定，尤其是考虑到2025年的就业增长人数正如普遍预期那样被大 幅下调。根据最新修正数据，美国2025年仅新增18.1万个就业岗位，每月仅新增1.5万个，低于修正前的每月4.9万个。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报首席经济记者Nick Timiraos评论称，1月就业报告巩固了美联储暂停降 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为5.9%，维持利率不变的概率为94.1%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率20.5%，维持利率 不变的概率为78.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为48.1%。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.13%，报50,121.40点；标普500指数微跌0.34点，报6,941.47点；纳斯达克指数跌0.16%，报23,066.47点。 具体数据显示，经季节性调整后，美国1月非农新增就业岗位13万个，远超市场预期的5.5万人，前值(12月份)被小幅下修至4.8万人。 分析指出，1月就业数据良好意味着美联储短期降息的概率正在降低。数据发布后，交易员已将下次美联储降息的预期时点从6月推迟至7月。据CME"美 联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率由19.6%降至6%，维持利率不变的概率已升至94%。 "市场原本带着对疲弱数据的预期，结果却得到了相反的结果。"法国外贸银行美国利率策略主管约翰·布里吉斯（John Briggs）表示，"至于市场对降息的 定价，鉴于美联储对劳动力市场的关注，降息预期正在回落。" 美国重要数 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that after the release of January's non-farm payroll data, market concerns regarding the "annual benchmark overhaul" have diminished, leading to a downward adjustment in interest rate cut expectations [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in March has increased from 78.4% to 94.1%, while the probability for April has risen from 57.3% to 76.6% [1] - Analysts from CITIC Securities believe that under the leadership of Waller, significant interest rate cuts will not be made in response to Trump's demands, as decisions will primarily be based on economic fundamentals [1] Group 2 - Waller is attentive to inflation risks but is not strictly hawkish; the analysts predict that there may be 1-2 interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, depending on inflation trends [1] - If factors such as oil prices and tariffs lead to a rebound in inflation and inflation expectations, the space for rate cuts will be limited, potentially resulting in only one 25 basis point cut in the second half [1] - Conversely, if inflation stabilizes and declines, there could be two 25 basis point cuts in the latter half of the year [1]

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The gold and silver markets have not formed a new trend direction yet. The better - than - expected January employment data in the US has led traders to reduce their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the Iran geopolitical risk continues to ferment. During the Spring Festival holiday, the margin of gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 1.53% to $5107.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.60% to $84.08 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract closed up 0.44% at 1131 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed up 2.27% at 20965 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of February 11, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 19.73 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 16236.18 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 5.9%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 94.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by April is 20.5%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 78.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by June is 48.1% [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that for silver contracts, starting from the last trading day of February 2026, for non - futures company members, overseas special non - brokerage participants, or customers who have not obtained the hedging trading position limit for the approaching delivery month, the approaching - delivery - month long and short hedging trading position limits automatically converted from the general - month hedging trading position limits will be temporarily adjusted to 0 lots [1]. - The US unemployment rate in January was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, better than the forecast of 4.4% and the previous value of 4.4%. The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding the forecast of 65,000 and the previous value of 50,000. After the release of the better - than - expected January employment data, traders reduced their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts [1]. - According to the Wall Street Journal, three US officials revealed that as the US military prepares for a potential strike against Iran, the Pentagon has notified a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The better - than - expected January employment data in the US has led traders to reduce their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts. On February 11, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 96.26. The Iran geopolitical risk continues to ferment, and COMEX gold rose slightly while COMEX silver had a relatively large increase on February 11 [1][2]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold and silver prices is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's latest statements regarding interest rate adjustments and inflation expectations, which have significantly influenced market sentiment and precious metal prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 12, gold and silver prices experienced a notable decline, with London gold at $5058.46 per ounce, down $1.69 (0.03%), and London silver at $82.253 per ounce, down $0.471 (0.57%) [3]. - The domestic market mirrored this trend, with Shanghai gold at 1130.7 yuan per gram and Shanghai silver at 20965 yuan per kilogram, both under pressure despite minor rebounds [3]. - Physical gold and silver markets showed mixed results, with some retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing slight price increases, while investment gold bars from China Construction Bank dropped by 0.77% to 1135.42 yuan per gram [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Statements - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester indicated that the current monetary policy is well-positioned, suggesting that interest rates will remain unchanged for an extended period [4]. - Mester highlighted that inflation remains elevated, with expectations of around 3% for the year, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, necessitating clear evidence of declining prices before considering rate adjustments [4]. - Other Fed officials expressed differing views on the need for rate cuts, contributing to market uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [4]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Data - Market pricing for Fed rate cuts has shifted, with only a 5.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in March and a 94.1% chance of maintaining current rates [5]. - The strong non-farm payroll data for January, showing an increase of 130,000 jobs and a drop in unemployment to 4.3%, has reinforced the Fed's stance on keeping rates steady [5]. - Analysts have varied interpretations of the recent price declines, with some adjusting their expectations for rate cuts from March to May, while others believe the Fed's cautious approach may extend the pause on rate cuts longer than anticipated [6].

美东时间2月11日，因美国联邦政府部分停摆推迟近一周的1月非农就业数据正式公布，数据表现远超市场 预期，迅速引发华尔街机构密集解读，市场对美联储首次降息的预期从此前的6月推迟至7月，有"新美联 储通讯社"之称的尼克·蒂米罗斯更是明确表态，预计美联储降息暂停期将持续更久。 此次公布的1月非农就业数据展现出强劲韧性：新增非农就业人口13万人，远超市场共识预期的6.5万，为 一年多来最大月度增幅；失业率环比下降0.1个百分点至4.3%，低于预期的4.4%；更广泛的失业指标降至 8%，较去年12月下降0.4个百分点，反映就业市场整体状况改善。同时，美国劳工统计局同步公布基准修 正数据，将2025年全年新增就业人数从58.4万大幅下修至18.1万，月均新增从4.9万降至1.5万，创下2003年 以来非经济危机年份的最差表现。 作为解读美联储政策的关键人物，尼克·蒂米罗斯在数据公布后发文指出，1月就业报告巩固了美联储延长 降息暂停期的决心。他援引美联储主席鲍威尔此前的讲话，称美国经济再次以强劲表现超出预期，而此次 数据中失业率的稳定的核心亮点，即便2025年就业数据大幅下修，也未削弱1月数据的参考价值。蒂米罗 斯强调，当 ...

Group 1: Employment and Economic Indicators - In January, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the previous value revised down to 48,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, also above expectations [1][6] - The U.S. budget deficit for the first four months of the fiscal year 2026 decreased by 17%, from $840 billion in the same period last year to $697 billion. This reduction was aided by increased tariff revenues, although it is insufficient to offset other factors that may expand the deficit [6][7] Group 2: International Trade and Aid - The European Parliament approved a financial aid package for Ukraine, which will provide €90 billion in loans from 2026 to 2027, with €60 billion allocated for defense needs [2][7] - French wine and spirits exports to the U.S. fell below 30 million cases in 2025, with a 21% decrease in export value to €3 billion, attributed to geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations [2][7] Group 3: Commodity Markets - OPEC reported that the average total oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.45 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day from the previous month, due to production declines in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran [2][7] - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main U.S. oil contract rising by 1.45% to $64.89 per barrel, and Brent oil increasing by 1.15% to $69.60 per barrel [4][8] Group 4: Financial Markets - U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 6.41 basis points to 3.512%, and the 10-year yield rising by 2.77 basis points to 4.170% [5][8] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.07% to 96.92, while non-U.S. currencies showed mixed performance against the dollar [5][8]

Group 1 - The White House Economic Council Director, Hassett, believes there is still ample room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, while Fed officials express disagreement [25][33] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in March is 94.1%, with a 5.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut [28] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.13% to 50,121.4 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.16% to 23,066.47 points [3][19] Group 2 - The international precious metals futures market saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.53% to $1,107.80 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures initially surged by 7.14% before dropping [28][31] - The World Silver Association predicts a sixth consecutive year of supply shortages in the silver market, driven by strong investment demand despite weakening industrial demand [32] - Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are enhancing silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to significant fluctuations in related mining company stock prices [32]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates during Powell's term, with potential rate cuts anticipated only after the appointment of a new chairperson, such as Waller, in the second half of the year [1] Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added more non-farm jobs than expected, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% [1] - The education and healthcare sectors were significant contributors to the increase in private sector employment [1] Market Reactions - Prior to the release of the January non-farm report, the market was focused on the potential revision of the 2025-March benchmark value, with concerns that annual revisions could exceed one million [1] - However, the final value, which was close to the initial estimate, did not cause significant market disruption; instead, the stronger-than-expected employment data led to a downward adjustment in rate cut expectations [1]