在金融市场中，银行理财产品与信托产品是两种较为常见的投资选择，了解它们之间的区别，对于投资 者合理规划资产、做出明智决策具有重要意义。下面就为大家详细剖析这两者的主要差别。 首先，从产品发行主体来看，银行理财产品是由商业银行或其他金融机构发行的。这些银行凭借广泛的 客户基础、雄厚的资金实力以及专业的金融服务团队，为投资者提供丰富多样的理财产品。而信托产品 则是由信托公司发行。信托公司作为金融领域的重要参与者，以"受人之托、代人理财"为宗旨，将信托 财产进行专业化管理和运用。 风险与收益的特征也是两者的重要区别点。银行理财产品根据风险等级划分，从低风险到高风险都有分 布。一般低风险产品提供较为稳健但相对较低的收益，主要投资于货币市场、债券等风险较低的资产。 随着风险等级的提高，产品的收益波动可能增大，但相应地潜在收益也可能提升。信托产品通常具有相 对较高的收益率，这与其较高的投资门槛和所承担的一定风险相匹配。信托产品的风险主要取决于信托 项目本身的运营状况和市场环境等因素，如果项目运作顺利，投资者有望获得较为可观的回报；但如果 项目出现问题，也可能面临本金损失等风险。 在监管体系方面，两者均处于严格的监管之下。 ...

晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-18 品种晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于中东地缘风险仍旧存在，原油溢价有所提升。在经历前期大幅回落以后，油市多头 信心再度增强，地缘溢价有所反弹。随着北半球夏季用油旺季到来，原油需求因子发力。不过近期 OPEC 和非 OPE ...

咱来聊聊美股为啥能创新高。首先得夸夸英伟达，这家公司最近简直是"AI芯片界的霸主"，黄仁勋前脚刚宣布恢复对华H20芯片的销售，后脚股价就蹭蹭 往上涨，市值直接冲破4.2万亿美元。不过有个细节得注意，黄仁勋最近在减持，虽然是按照预设计划进行，但这么大的动作还是得留个心眼。 各位朋友，咱们又见面了。最近美股市场可是相当热闹，纳指和标普500齐刷刷创下历史新高，连英伟达的市值都突破了4.2万亿美元，相当于A股整个半 导体板块的总市值。这场景，就像一场高手过招的棋局，表面上风平浪静，实则暗流涌动。 先给大家盘盘昨夜的关键事儿。美国众议院通过了加密货币法案，这可是给数字货币市场打了一剂强心针。不过另一边，穆迪敲响了警钟，说关税风险 可能让更多公司逼近违约。再看Netflix，第二季度营收110.79亿美元，虽说超了预期，但股价盘后还是跌了，看来市场对它的未来增长有点疑虑。 国际油价最近因地缘风险和供应趋紧涨了不少，但金价却跌了，黄金现货下跌0.23%。这说明市场的避险情绪在降温，但同时也反映出大家对经济复苏的 预期在增强。 作为中长线投资者，咱们得把眼光放长远。首先，要关注企业的财报质量，尤其是那些在关税压力下还能保持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. It will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene ethylene, in the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [15][17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend [19]. - For polypropylene, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [22]. - For PTA, under the situation of expected continuous inventory accumulation and weakening demand, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, although the fundamentals are weak, it is expected to be strong in the short term due to unexpected events [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $0.98, or 1.47%, to $67.62; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $0.94, or 1.37%, to $69.65; INE main crude oil futures fell by 0.60 yuan, or 0.12%, to 516.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.23 million barrels to 12.23 million barrels, a 1.92% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 9.06 million barrels, a 7.00% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 23.39 million barrels, a 5.35% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.78 million barrels to 44.68 million barrels, a 3.82% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 17 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate continued to decline, and the profit slightly decreased but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas device start - up returned to the mid - high level, and the market reaction to overseas supply disruptions was over, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load rebounded this week, but the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the start - up rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid falling and those of chlorides and MTBE rising, showing overall weakness [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1743 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The start - up rate of compound fertilizers bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent start - up rate will continue to rise, supporting the demand for urea. Export containerization continued, and port inventory continued to increase [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously, showing strong momentum. The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons, or 0.02%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a 0.25% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a 0.45% decrease. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 507,500 (+23,000) tons [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The rubber price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4955 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 118 (- 3) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a 0.5% decrease; the start - up rate of the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a 1.6% decrease; the start - up rate of the ethylene method was 71%, a 2.5% increase. The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.1%, a 1.8% decrease. Factory inventory was 382,000 tons (- 5,000), and social inventory was 624,000 tons (+32,000) [12]. 3.6 Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space [15]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The start - up rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the start - up rate of benzene ethylene continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene ethylene increased significantly, and the overall start - up rate of the three S products in the demand side decreased due to the off - season [15][17]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The global trade policy uncertainty has returned due to the US tariff policy. The spot price of polyethylene fell, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate was 78.84%, a 0.01% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 529,300 tons, a 36,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 57,700 tons, a 2,900 - ton decrease. The average downstream start - up rate was 38%, a 0.13% increase [19]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The profit of Shandong local refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal supply of propylene returning [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The downstream start - up rate fluctuated seasonally downward. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 26 yuan to 6742 yuan, and the PX CFR fell by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was 119 yuan (- 41), and the 9 - 1 spread was 134 yuan (+36) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The load in China was 81.3%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 73.6%, a 0.5% decrease. Some devices had load adjustments. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 117,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 22,000 tons. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 165,000 tons [22]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 8 yuan to 4714 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 10 yuan to 4730 yuan. The basis was 24 yuan (+13), and the 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (+16) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The terminal texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [23]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4372 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 37 yuan to 4437 yuan. The basis was 62 yuan (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 17 yuan (+15) [24]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 45,000 tons, and the port inventory was 553,000 tons, a 27,000 - ton decrease [24].

近年来，受贸易摩擦以及俄乌冲突影响，全球政治经济格局深度调整，大宗商品价格波动剧烈，企业经 营环境复杂多变，经营的持续性和稳定性受到挑战。不少企业开始尝试运用期货及衍生工具管理价格和 成本风险，采取期现结合的方式穿越行业周期，对冲经营风险，锁定经营成果，解决了企业经营过程中 的"燃眉之急"。笔者就实体产业如何用好期货工具、加强期货和现货业务融合管控、拓展新的业务模 式，谈几点粗浅的看法。 在期现业务开展过程中，要坚守期货服务现货的初心。要将现货作为期货最终落脚点，合理设定套保比 例，防止风险敞口无限扩大。要制定相应的制度和操作流程。要具备成本意识，将套保有关成本（包括 税收）纳入采购成本或销售成本，全面实现期现一体化。 三是要做好仓位的动态平衡、有效性测试等工作。 加强交易流程管控 企业要制定相应的管理制度和业务流程，防范和控制市场风险、交易风险、信用风险和合规风险。现货 有关货权把控、交易对手资信评估、合同签订、资金支付、发票开具等环节要明晰，责任到人。开展期 货业务要有许可，必须经过董事会批准和授权。套保计划要控制在企业年度经营计划额度之内并经过董 事会批准。套保方案要履行必要的审批程序，明确被套期项目和 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming listing of propylene futures and options is expected to provide risk management tools for the propylene industry, which is currently facing multiple challenges [1][7]. Industry Overview - Jiangsu and Shandong provinces are key regions for propylene production and sales in China, with Shandong accounting for 36% of the national propylene circulation [2]. - Shandong's propylene production capacity is projected to reach 14.48 million tons by 2025, representing 21% of the national total [2]. - The propylene industry has undergone significant changes, with pricing power shifting from local refineries to PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) enterprises since 2021 [2]. Market Challenges - The industry is experiencing high supply levels due to rapid capacity expansion, leading to a capacity utilization rate lingering between 74% and 77% [2]. - The current market conditions have resulted in limited profit margins for most downstream products, with only butyl alcohol showing significant profitability [2][3]. - Companies like Binhua New Materials are facing pressures from fluctuating raw material prices, particularly due to international market dynamics [3]. Risk Management Strategies - Leading companies are adopting various strategies to manage risks in the absence of propylene futures, including upstream and downstream collaboration, inventory management, and adjusting production rates [4]. - Companies like Shenghong Petrochemical are leveraging diverse raw material sources and flexible logistics to mitigate risks [4][6]. - The establishment of a mature futures hedging system by companies such as Jingbo Petrochemical is helping to manage price volatility and production costs [5]. Future Outlook - The introduction of propylene futures and options is expected to enhance the industry's risk management capabilities and fill the existing gap in the C3 (propylene) industry chain [7][10]. - The market is anticipated to shift from a focus on scale expansion to efficiency optimization, with companies increasingly prioritizing cost control and resource allocation [8][10]. - The new futures tools will facilitate a transition to a pricing model based on futures prices plus basis adjustments, reducing negotiation costs and stabilizing long-term partnerships [9].

英国投行Panmure Liberum分析师阿什利·凯尔蒂（AshleyKelty）表示，由于美国关税最终规模和全球经 济增长影响的不确定性，近期油价将会依然充满波动。油价在中期很可能会走低。 嘉盛集团资深分析师法瓦德·拉扎克扎达（Fawad Razaqzada）表示，下半年欧佩克产油国显然会有更多 供应进入市场，但自己不认为需求会像此前担忧的那样糟。 拉扎克扎达认为，今年剩余时间里，油价更多将表现出横盘态势，而非呈现单一的趋势性走势。 新华财经纽约7月17日电（记者刘亚南）由于美国经济数据利好提振和市场继续关注中东地缘政治风险 影响，国际油价在隔夜市场小幅走高，17日早盘强势盘整，午后涨幅扩大，收盘时国际油价均明显上 涨。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.16美元，收于每桶67.54美元，涨幅 为1.75%；9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1美元，收于每桶69.52美元，涨幅为1.46%。 当日，美国公布的多个宏观数据构成利好，对风险资产价格带来提振。 美国商务部在当日盘前发布的数据显示，美国6月份零售和食品服务业销售金额为7201亿美元，环比增 加0.6%，高于市场预期的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the need to enhance the convenience for foreign capital to engage in equity and venture investments in China, aiming to attract more high-quality foreign investments into the capital market [1] Group 1: Foreign Investment Policy - The Ministry of Commerce plans to orderly expand the opening of the capital market to foreign investments [1] - There is a focus on increasing the participation of foreign capital in venture investments and equity investments [1] - The government aims to guide foreign investors to implement strategic investments in listed companies in an orderly and regulated manner [1] Group 2: Investment Direction and Structure - The Ministry intends to revise and expand the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Directory" to promote foreign investment in advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors [1] - There is encouragement for foreign enterprises to establish regional headquarters and R&D centers in China [1] - The strategy includes optimizing the structure of foreign investment to direct more capital towards the central and northeastern regions of China [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is still growing, but the momentum of growth has significantly slowed down [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) faces increased risks regarding employment targets [1] - After an approximate economic growth rate of 1% in the first half of the year, the economy is expected to remain "soft" for the remainder of 2025 [1]

美联储理事沃勒：经济面临更多风险，倾向于宽松的政策利率。 ...