金十数据5月15日讯，在美国零售销售和PPI等数据公布前，美债收益率在欧洲早盘交易中企稳。 Pepperstone资深研究策略师迈克尔·布朗表示，由于美联储仍在评估关税的影响，这些数据可能不会过 度影响市场。"尽管今天将有大量美国数据等待公布，但坦率地说，很难说这些数据有什么特别重要， 因为美联储正坚定地处于观望模式。"此外，市场参与者的心态是"好消息就是好消息，坏消息是可以忽 略的"。2年期美债收益率目前持平于4.047%，10年期收益率也持平于4.530%。 美债收益率在今晚重磅数据出炉前持稳 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-05-15 美国贸易谈判或有新进展 贵金属震荡走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 据外媒讯，美国与日本、韩国、印度的贸易关税协议"接近达成"。并称美国在关税谈判中不寻求美元贬值。另 外，特朗普在卡塔尔达成1.2万亿美元经济承诺。美国与卡塔尔签署超2435亿美元经济及军事合作协议。此外，欧 洲央行要求区内银行评估压力情况下美元短缺风险，因担忧特朗普执政下无法依赖美联储。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-05-14，沪金主力合约开于 764.00元/克，收于 761.72元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.78%。当日成交量为 497536手，持仓量为 214778手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 750.00 元/克，收于 748.68 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 下降2.04%。 2025-05-14，沪银主力合约开于 8186元/千克，收于 8195元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 616045手，持仓量 280768手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,090 元/千克，收于 8,085 元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 下降1.40%。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-05-14， ...

Group 1 - Investors are assessing the US economic conditions under moderate inflation and recent trade agreements, leading to a slight increase in US Treasury prices and a decline in yields [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 4.011%, the 10-year yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 4.475%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 2.5 basis points to 4.918% [1] - Mortgage demand in the US has risen for the second consecutive week, indicating that potential buyers are attracted by the increased supply of homes for sale [3] Group 2 - The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 6.84% to 6.86%, which is 22 basis points higher than the same period last year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by 2.3% year-on-year, which is below economists' expectations of 2.4% and reflects the lowest level since February 2021 [3] - Housing costs were the main driver of inflation in April, despite a decrease in gasoline prices [3] Group 3 - Economists are looking for early signs of tariffs affecting US households, as tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices [4] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation data is still not fully reflected and may become apparent by June [4] - The UK central bank's chief economist expressed concerns that inflation in the UK may be stronger than expected, potentially requiring higher interest rates than investors anticipate [5] Group 4 - The US Treasury is set to issue a $60 billion 17-week short-term debt on May 14, with additional bonds totaling $160 billion to be issued on May 15 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of cross-border ETFs has led to significant price increases across various funds, driven by positive market sentiment following favorable inflation data and a temporary trade truce between the US and China [1][5][10]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Southern Fund's Saudi ETF, Invesco's Nasdaq Tech ETF, and Invesco's S&P Consumer ETF saw increases of 5.57%, 3.64%, and 3.4% respectively, with latest premium/discount rates at 8.99%, 3.72%, and 29.09% [1][3]. - The S&P Oil & Gas ETFs from Franklin Templeton and Harvest Fund increased by 3.19% and 2.99% respectively, reflecting a broader rise in oil prices [1][3]. - The Nasdaq index rose for the second consecutive day, with Franklin Templeton's Nasdaq ETF and Cathay Fund's Nasdaq ETF increasing by 2.7% and 2.63% respectively [1][3]. Group 2: Market Context - Global stock markets continued to rise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices gaining 0.72% and 1.61% respectively, attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data and improved investor sentiment following the US-China trade truce [5][6]. - The S&P 500 index has recovered its losses for the year, now up 0.1%, after a significant drop earlier due to escalating trade tensions [5][6]. - The recent signing of a $142 billion arms deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, along with Nvidia's commitment to supply advanced AI chips, has further bolstered market optimism [6][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, below the expected 2.4%, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [10]. - Despite the favorable inflation data, the 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 2.4 basis points to 4.481%, indicating a complex market reaction [10]. - Market analysts suggest that the upcoming month may see fluctuations in the S&P 500 index between 5500 and 5800 points, supported by corporate buybacks and trade agreements [10].

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.64% at 42140.43 points, the S&P 500 up 0.72% at 5886.55 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.61% at 19010.08 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia up 5.63%, Tesla up 4.93%, Meta up 2.60%, Amazon up 1.31%, Apple up 1.02%, and Alphabet up 0.82%, while Microsoft fell 0.03% [1] - Some Chinese concept stocks performed well, with Yatsen E-commerce up 9.93%, Shengda Technology up 8.12%, Daqo New Energy up 7.35%, Tuya Smart up 5.64%, JD Group up 3.33%, and Tencent Music up 2.58% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed steady, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 both up 0.3%, while the UK's FTSE 100 slightly declined, and the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.1% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.82% at $3254.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.43% at $33.09 per ounce [1] - International oil prices surged, with the main US oil contract up 2.71% at $63.63 per barrel and the main Brent crude contract up 2.43% at $66.54 per barrel [1] - London base metals rose across the board, with LME zinc up 1.93% at $2720.50 per ton, LME lead up 1.40% at $1993.00 per ton, LME copper up 1.29% at $9624.50 per ton, LME nickel up 1.25% at $15745.00 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.95% at $2493.50 per ton, and LME tin up 0.69% at $32650.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - US Treasury yields generally fell, with the 2-year yield down 1.23 basis points at 3.996%, the 3-year yield down 2.24 basis points at 3.984%, the 5-year yield down 1.75 basis points at 4.094%, the 10-year yield down 0.59 basis points at 4.465%, and the 30-year yield down 0.1 basis points at 4.905% [1] - European bond yields rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 2.7 basis points at 4.667%, France's 10-year yield up 2.7 basis points at 3.351%, Germany's 10-year yield up 3.1 basis points at 2.677%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.2 basis points at 3.696%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 2.5 basis points at 3.295% [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.37 basis points, reaching 4.4946% at the end of trading on Tuesday, May 13 [1] - The U.S. CPI inflation data caused the yield to drop to a daily low of 4.4197% before fluctuating upwards [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 0.87 basis points, closing at 4.0190%, after hitting a daily low of 3.9519% and subsequently recovering to 4.0253% [1]

美国国债回吐涨幅，美债收益率达到日内高点。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1][4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to decline. Recent trade negotiations and geopolitical disputes are intertwined. The joint statement between China and the US to reduce reciprocal tariffs led to a strong market reaction, causing the gold price to give back its previous risk premium. The international gold price has fallen nearly 10%, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support at $3,200. The market is also awaiting the US CPI data tonight [2] Group 3: Reasons for the Gold Price Decline - The weakening of the trade conflict has reduced the safe - haven value of gold. When the Trump administration announced comprehensive tariff hikes last month, the gold price soared 8% in a single week to a record high of $3,500. Now, as the trade war eases, the over - reaction to the White House's policy has led to the gold price correction [3] - The resurgence of the US dollar has suppressed the gold price. The US dollar index soared 1.5% on the same day, breaking through the 101 mark and reaching a two - month high of 101.97, which has a double - edged impact on gold [3] - Capital has shifted to risk assets. The S&P 500 index soared 3.26%, the Nasdaq rose 4.35%, and the VIX panic index fell below the 20 psychological threshold, indicating that funds are leaving defensive assets [3]

Group 1 - US Treasury bonds rose ahead of the inflation data release, reversing the sharp decline following the US-China trade consensus, which reduced the likelihood of a global economic recession and diminished market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The two-year Treasury yield fell three basis points to 3.98%, outperforming European counterparts, while the ten-year yield traded at 4.45%, significantly higher than the month's low of 4.12% [2] - Economists predict that the US April CPI year-on-year growth will remain at 2.4%, with core CPI growth expected to hold steady at 2.8% [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in December rather than July, with the probability of a recession reduced to 35% from 45% [2] - Deutsche Bank economists estimate that the final tax plan could keep the US deficit as a percentage of GDP around 6.5% in the coming years [3] - Market participants are uncertain about the feasibility of extending the 2017 tax cuts without exacerbating the US deficit, with discussions set to begin in the House of Representatives [3]

周一因中美达成削减关税协议，市场对美国经济衰退的担忧缓解，美元指数一度逼近 102，最终收涨 1.37%至 101.80。美债收益率双双走高，利 率市场削减美联储年内降息定价，提振美元需求。不过美元短线虽偏多，但面临关键阻力，且美国 CPI 数据将至，若通胀低于预期，多头或将 了结。当前美联储降息预期调降，鹰派空间有限，通胀火热还可能加剧滞胀担忧，利空美元。 黄金昨日跳空低开并延续跌势，最低触及3207后企稳反弹，美盘最高涨至3248后震荡整理，午夜弱势整理至 3220 后修复，最终收盘于 3234。 今日早间行情先小幅拉升，随后强势下跌至 3216，亚盘又强势上涨至 3260 后承压整理。目前行情处于修复阶段，晚间 CPI 数据备受关注。若 欧盘行情未延续上涨而是回落，多头或于 3270终结。技术面上方阻力在 3268 - 3274，下方支撑在 3244 - 3237。操作上徐老师建议回调做多为 主，反弹高空为辅。 操作策略1：建议回调3244-3237分批多，各止损8美金，止盈看15-20美金。 操作策略2：建议反弹3268-3274分批空，各止损8美金，止盈看20-40美金。 面对市场，实际上就是面对自 ...