FOF基金作为资产配置的专业载体，其核心优势逐步被市场认可。这种以基金为投资标的的产品形态， 通过"精选基金、组合投资、动态调仓"的运作模式，正好契合了现代资产配置的核心需求，成为破解多 重投资困境的有效方案。 对于普通投资者而言，选择追求长期稳健投资的FOF产品，借助专业机构的投研力量进行资产配置，或 将成为穿越市场迷雾的优质选择。其中，拟由民生加银总经理助理兼任资产配置部总监刘欣、基金经理 孔思伟共同担纲的民生加银多元稳健配置3个月持有期混合型FOF正在发行中。该产品从"弱者思维"出 发，立体化审视各类资产的风险暴露情况，并通过风险平价模型力争保持各资产的风险贡献相等，进而 实现多资产风险的有效对冲，提高组合在各种宏观环境下的适应能力。同时，产品也会在风险平价模型 大框架下，紧跟市场趋势，进行阶段性战术调整，力求逆势行情下降低风险暴露，顺势行情下提升收 益。此外，该产品还设置了3个月的持有期，助力投资者克服非理性投资操作，优化持有体验。 具体来看，当前全市场公募基金数量众多，普通投资者如仅凭历史业绩筛选基金，容易陷入"冠军魔 咒"。而专业的FOF管理团队则凭借成熟的投研体系实现多维度的筛选，实现优中选优。 ...

当全球格局出现"东稳西荡"的变化时，这种结构性优势就会转化为实际的资金流向。王庆预判，随着全 球投资者重新评估风险收益，资金可能会从过度配置的美国市场逐步流向配置不足的中国市场。 对于中国资本市场而言，这种全球资金再平衡意味着历史性的发展机遇。随着国际投资者重新认识中国 市场的价值和潜力，中国资产有望获得更加合理的定价，资本市场功能将得到进一步完善。这种资金的 重新配置不仅会直接推动中国资产的价值重估进程，还将为中国经济的高质量发展提供重要的金融支 持。 责任编辑：江钰涵 11月28日，重阳投资董事长兼首席经济学家王庆在2025分析师大会上接受独家访谈时指出，全球资金配 置目前呈现出极不平衡的状态——对美国市场的配置严重过高，而对中国市场的配置则显著偏低。这种 配置格局与两国实际的经济实力对比形成了鲜明反差。 王庆认为，从经济实力和科技创新的角度来看，中美两国都处于全球领先地位，尤其是在科技创新领 域，两国共同站在了世界前沿。然而金融市场的资产配置却远未反映出这种真实的经济实力对比。当前 这种配置偏差为全球资金流动创造了一个重要的结构性机会。 王庆指出，这种配置不平衡背后蕴藏着重要的投资逻辑。由于全球资金严重 ...

Core Insights - The fund issuance market in 2025 has shown remarkable performance, with a total issuance scale exceeding 1.06 trillion yuan as of November 28, marking a significant shift in market dynamics towards equity funds [1] - Equity funds (both stock and mixed types) have become the dominant force in the market, accounting for over 50% of the total issuance, surpassing bond funds for the first time in history [1] - The number of newly established funds reached 1,376, with a total issuance of 10,624.56 billion units, showing slight growth compared to the previous year [1] Fund Structure Changes - Equity funds accounted for 50.55% of the total issuance, with stock funds raising 390.04 billion units and mixed funds raising 147.07 billion units, contrasting sharply with the nearly 70% share of bond funds in the previous year [1] - Fund of Funds (FOF) products have also seen explosive growth, with 69 new funds established, raising a total of 73.55 billion units, approximately 5.5 times the amount raised in the same period last year [1] Market Performance in November - In November, 136 new funds were established, with a total issuance of 94.57 billion units, maintaining a strong momentum despite market volatility [2] - Active equity funds and FOF products performed particularly well, with notable funds like E Fund's Industrial Selection leading with an issuance of 3.16 billion units [2] Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Analysts attribute the structural changes in the fund issuance market to macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and evolving investor preferences, indicating a restoration of market confidence [4] - The emergence of popular funds reflects a more mature and rational investor base, focusing on solid research capabilities and risk control rather than chasing trends [4] - The outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth in equity funds driven by the irreversible trend of wealth shifting towards capital markets and increased participation from long-term funds like pensions [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the shift in investment strategies among Chinese investors as deposit rates fall below 1%, leading to increased interest in diversified financial assets, particularly as the GDP per capita is projected to reach $13,000 in 2024 [2][3] - The article discusses the historical context of asset allocation changes in other countries, such as the U.S. and Japan, when their GDP per capita surpassed $10,000, indicating a similar trend may occur in China [2][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of transitioning from a "single asset" investment approach to a diversified asset allocation strategy to balance risk and return in the current market environment [3][4] Group 2 - Common pitfalls in asset allocation are identified, including the misconception that holding multiple products equates to diversification, which can lead to concentrated risks in specific sectors [6][7] - The article points out that many investors are struggling to adapt to new investment paradigms, often clinging to traditional methods that do not meet their wealth growth needs [4][5] - The article introduces the "Four Seasons Portfolio" strategy developed by Citic Bank, which aims to simplify asset allocation for ordinary investors by providing a balanced mix of assets to withstand various market conditions [7][8] Group 3 - The "Four Seasons Portfolio" is designed to be user-friendly, allowing investors to select based on their risk tolerance and investment goals, with automatic rebalancing features to maintain the desired asset allocation [9] - The strategy is based on the "Permanent Portfolio" concept, which has historically achieved stable returns while minimizing drawdowns, thus providing a reliable framework for investors [7][8] - The article concludes that effective asset allocation is essential for wealth preservation and growth, positioning it as a necessary skill for investors as they increasingly shift their wealth towards financial assets [9]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: ERP and DRP Standardized Equal-Weight Model for A-Share Odds - **Model Construction Idea**: The model calculates A-share odds using standardized values of ERP (Equity Risk Premium) and DRP (Default Risk Premium) with equal weighting[12] - **Model Construction Process**: - Standardized values of ERP and DRP are calculated - These values are equally weighted to derive the A-share odds - As of the end of November, the A-share odds declined to near the zero axis, indicating a neutral level[12] - **Model Evaluation**: The model reflects a neutral positioning for A-shares, with odds returning to a balanced state[12] 2. Model Name: Bond Odds Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the expected return difference between long-term and short-term bonds to construct a bond odds indicator[19] - **Model Construction Process**: - The expected return difference between long-term and short-term bonds is calculated - This difference is standardized to derive the bond odds indicator - Recently, the bond odds indicator has significantly rebounded but remains at a low level of -0.9 standard deviations[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the rebound in bond odds, though it remains at a relatively low level[19] 3. Model Name: AIAE Indicator for US Stocks - **Model Construction Idea**: The AIAE (Asset Implied Allocation Efficiency) indicator measures the historical positioning of US stocks to assess risk and return[20] - **Model Construction Process**: - The AIAE indicator is calculated based on historical data - Currently, the AIAE indicator is at 55%, the highest point in its history, corresponding to 2.4 standard deviations above the mean - Historical analysis shows that when the AIAE indicator exceeded 50% in 2000 and 2022, the S&P 500 experienced significant corrections of 46% and 25%, respectively[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights elevated risks for US stocks, with the AIAE indicator at a historically high level[20] 4. Model Name: Federal Reserve Liquidity Index - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines quantity and price dimensions to construct a liquidity index for asset allocation[20] - **Model Construction Process**: - The index incorporates multiple factors, including net liquidity, Federal Reserve credit support, market expectations, and announcement surprises - After the October FOMC meeting, the announcement surprise signal turned negative, and net liquidity continued to decline - Other indicators showed easing signals, and the liquidity index returned to a moderately high level of 20%[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of liquidity conditions, highlighting mixed signals in the current environment[20] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. ERP and DRP Standardized Equal-Weight Model for A-Share Odds - Odds: Neutral (near zero axis)[12] - Win Rate: 16%[12] 2. Bond Odds Indicator - Odds: -0.9 standard deviations (low level)[19] - Win Rate: -4% (medium level)[19] 3. AIAE Indicator for US Stocks - Odds: 2.4 standard deviations (historically high level)[20] - Win Rate: Not explicitly mentioned[20] 4. Federal Reserve Liquidity Index - Liquidity Index: 20% (moderately high level)[20] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Small-Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates small-cap stocks based on odds, trends, and crowding levels[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Odds: 0.2 standard deviations (neutral level) - Trend: 1.2 standard deviations (high level) - Crowding: -1.4 standard deviations (low level) - Comprehensive score: 4[21] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows strong trends and low crowding, making it attractive for allocation[21] 2. Factor Name: Value Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Assesses value stocks using odds, trends, and crowding levels[23] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Odds: 0.8 standard deviations (moderately high level) - Trend: 0.1 standard deviations (neutral level) - Crowding: -1.3 standard deviations (low level) - Comprehensive score: 3[23] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor ranks high among others, suggesting it is worth focusing on[23] 3. Factor Name: Quality Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates quality stocks based on odds, trends, and crowding levels[26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Odds: 1.2 standard deviations (high level) - Trend: -0.6 standard deviations (low level) - Crowding: 0.1 standard deviations (medium level) - Comprehensive score: 0[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's weak trend reduces its allocation value, requiring confirmation of a right-side trend[26] 4. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Analyzes growth stocks using odds, trends, and crowding levels[29] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Odds: 0.1 standard deviations (neutral level) - Trend: 0.5 standard deviations (moderately high level) - Crowding: 1.5 standard deviations (high level) - Comprehensive score: -1.2[29] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's high crowding level indicates elevated trading risks[29] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Small-Cap Factor - Odds: 0.2 standard deviations[21] - Trend: 1.2 standard deviations[21] - Crowding: -1.4 standard deviations[21] - Comprehensive Score: 4[21] 2. Value Factor - Odds: 0.8 standard deviations[23] - Trend: 0.1 standard deviations[23] - Crowding: -1.3 standard deviations[23] - Comprehensive Score: 3[23] 3. Quality Factor - Odds: 1.2 standard deviations[26] - Trend: -0.6 standard deviations[26] - Crowding: 0.1 standard deviations[26] - Comprehensive Score: 0[26] 4. Growth Factor - Odds: 0.1 standard deviations[29] - Trend: 0.5 standard deviations[29] - Crowding: 1.5 standard deviations[29] - Comprehensive Score: -1.2[29]

Market Overview - Global risk appetite has improved significantly, with major equity indices and commodities rising in tandem as of November 28, 2025[7] - Silver and copper prices have reached historical highs, with silver surpassing $56 per ounce and copper closing at $11,175.5 per ton[7] - The MSCI Global Index increased by 3.5%, with developed markets outperforming emerging and frontier markets[20] Equity Performance - Major U.S. indices rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.9% and the Russell 2000 increasing by 5.5%[20] - In emerging markets, the A-share market saw a 2.9% increase, with the ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 both up by 4.5%[20] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively[20] Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening by 3.7 basis points to 0.42%[36] - U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rising to 86.4%[37] Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as the South China and CRB rose by 2%, with 10 out of 13 major commodities recording price increases[55] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7%, dropping below 100, while the euro, pound, and yuan appreciated by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.4%, respectively[77] Risk Indicators - The implied offshore RMB exchange rate for gold has broken the 7 mark, indicating significant currency fluctuations[82] - Key risk indicators such as VIX and MOVE have shown a notable decline, reflecting reduced market volatility[7]

Core Insights - The core focus of the article is on the importance of asset allocation in the "fixed income plus" (固收+) business, emphasizing the need for a professional team to effectively manage this aspect [1][7]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The primary contradiction in each market phase must be identified, and the emphasis should be on cost-effectiveness [1][7]. - The philosophy of asset allocation is to maximize returns while controlling drawdowns, with a strong focus on the cost-effectiveness of various investment options across different sectors and asset classes [1][7]. - A long-term perspective is essential for maximizing portfolio returns, with all asset types serving the overall risk-return profile of the portfolio [1][7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Product Demand - In a declining interest rate environment, "fixed income plus" has become a preferred choice for wealth management among residents, with the total market size reaching 2.44 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, an increase of over 500 billion yuan from Q2 2025 [5]. - The appeal of "fixed income plus" products lies in their ability to address asset allocation challenges and provide a relatively stable long-term return in volatile market conditions [5][6]. Group 3: Team Structure and Investment Approach - The team at Yinhua Fund consists of over 50 members, including specialists in equity, ensuring a balanced approach to both offensive and defensive strategies [6]. - The integration of AI technology is enhancing the team's efficiency, helping to identify investment opportunities and manage risks more effectively [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Focus - The company anticipates a gradual reduction in the economic drag from real estate over the next two to three years, with potential recovery in consumer and business confidence, leading to overall investment opportunities in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [9]. - The focus on technological innovation remains a long-term strategy, with an emphasis on sectors such as consumption recovery, aviation, tourism, and cyclical products related to PPI recovery [9].

于是奇怪的问题就来了，高贵的黄金没成投资界主流，爱炒股的人们像极了"飞蛾扑火"。 这种"资产狂欢与个人亏损"的背离，其实还是藏着金融市场的底层逻辑与人性的博弈，值得每一位读者深思。 作者｜快刀财经 唐纳德 怎样钱生钱一直是个最简单又是最难的双面问题。买黄金？还是买股票？可以被视为此问题的具体延伸。 近期，A股冲上十几年点位新高，对资本市场又爱又恨之人，忍不住着急入手。 但相比跌宕起伏的股市，黄金反而更容易成为消费市场的"不倒翁"，它既是消费品，更具有投资属性。诡异的 是，一边是黄金持续创新高，看似却不曾成为大众的投资主流，一边是牛市氛围浓厚，偏偏又是多数普通投资者 却赚少亏多。 说投资是一种策略或者机会选择，不如把其比作人生一场修行，修的是术，更是修心。 黄金不生息，玩的是地缘逻辑 涨是当下黄金的主题，26日国际金价上涨 重回每盎司4200美元关口上方。很多人质疑，既然黄金如此被看好，大 众干脆都去买黄金好了？ 常识往往看上去合理，逻辑上却行不通。 长期以来，黄金被视为避险资产或高通胀下的"保值"资产。"黄金不生息"的观点在市场上广为流传。股神巴菲特 对黄金也持批判观点，称其为"不会下蛋的鸡"，不产生现金流、 ...

Group 1: Income and Asset Allocation - The average annual income per household in China reached 55,500 yuan in Q3 2025, with wage income accounting for 62.1% of total income, indicating its core role in household finances [1][10][27]. - Middle-aged groups in first-tier cities exhibit strong income growth, with their average annual income being 2.05 times that of their counterparts in non-first-tier cities, reflecting the advantages of urban employment quality and salary levels [1][10][29]. - The proportion of families without mortgage loans reached 56.1%, indicating reduced financial pressure from housing assets, while the overall household debt ratio shows a "U-shaped" distribution, with 49.2% of families being debt-free [1][11][46]. Group 2: Consumption Expenditure and Consumer Groups - The average monthly consumption expenditure per household reached 3,004 yuan, with first-tier city households spending an average of 4,442 yuan, significantly higher than other city tiers [2][11][12]. - Young consumers are active in entertainment and dining, focusing on quality and personalized experiences, while middle-aged consumers prioritize education and healthcare due to family responsibilities [2][12]. - Households with housing assets show higher consumption capabilities across all age groups, particularly in first-tier cities, where homeownership correlates with increased spending in various categories [12][13]. Group 3: Consumer Expectations and Influencing Factors - Consumer expectations improved in Q3, with about 69% of households planning to maintain their consumption levels, and 11% intending to increase spending [3][14]. - Employment stability is a key factor influencing consumer confidence, with those unemployed for over three months planning to cut back on discretionary spending [3][14]. - Households with annual incomes below 50,000 yuan show a higher tendency to reduce flexible spending, highlighting the impact of income levels on consumption plans [3][15]. Group 4: Recommendations and Policy Suggestions - To enhance consumer confidence, policies should focus on supporting employment and income for youth and low-income groups, guiding rational financial asset allocation, and improving housing security [16][17]. - Introducing inclusive financial products and optimizing housing finance structures can alleviate the pressure of housing costs on other consumption categories [16][17]. - Establishing a consumption support system tailored to different life stages can stimulate demand across all age groups, particularly for youth and middle-aged consumers [17].

积极布局"固收+"及权益类产品 自去年"9·24"行情以来，权益与固收市场经历较大波动，券商资管纷纷调整产品策略以应对市场变化。 王钟称，公司坚持事前布局而非临时性调整，三年前便在固收打底的基础上，积极布局"固收+"及权益类产品，成功把握住了去年"9·24"行情的发展机遇。2025年以 来，面对固收市场的不利环境与权益市场的持续行情，公司进一步加大多资产、全天候策略布局，在固收+产品中融入股票挂钩期权、黄金挂钩、商品挂钩及波动 率策略等，丰富投资范围，形成与公募的差异化竞争优势。同时积极向客户宣导均衡配置理念，摆脱对固收的过度依赖，实现单一产品内部及客户持仓的多元平 衡。 唐吟波表示，华源证券自2023年被武汉国资收购后重新布局资管业务，全程伴随本轮市场调整与变化。公司坚定守住固收产品线基本盘，同时提前布局含权类产 品，于今年5月起发行权益FOF及纯权益产品，今年下半年已推出多只权益类产品，取得良好市场反响与客户认可。含权方向是中小券商资管后发赶超、打造特色 的重要机遇，未来将持续深耕这一领域。 在低利率环境持续、市场波动加剧的背景下，券商资管如何调整产品布局、优化投研体系、深耕"固收+"业务并展望未来市场走 ...