Group 1 - The visit of Katsuhiro Saito, leader of Japan's Komeito party, to China is significant as it marks the first official visit by a Japanese political leader to China since the onset of tariff negotiations under the Trump administration [1][3] - The letter from Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to China is seen as a signal of Japan's desire to strengthen ties with China amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. [1][3] - Japan aims to leverage its relationship with China to enhance its negotiating position with the U.S. during trade discussions, indicating that Japan is not solely reliant on the U.S. for economic partnerships [3][5] Group 2 - Japan is seeking to establish a cooperative relationship with China to bolster its economic resilience against U.S. pressures, especially in light of ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions [5][6] - The focus on Southeast Asia by Japan, including Ishiba's planned visits to Vietnam and the Philippines, highlights the region's growing importance in global supply chains and economic stability [5][6] - The potential for Southeast Asian countries to maintain neutrality in the U.S.-China trade conflict could benefit China's economic cooperation and stability in the region [8]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's tariff negotiations have not resulted in any agreements with other countries, including Japan, which has notably resisted U.S. pressure [1][3] - Japan's refusal to join any trade group aimed at isolating China marks a significant shift in its stance towards U.S. demands [1] - Japan is strategically delaying negotiations with the U.S. while seeking to improve trade and financial relations with China to bolster its economy [3] Group 2 - The meeting between the governors of the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan has raised concerns about potential coordinated actions against U.S. debt, which could impact the U.S. financial market [5] - Predictions suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 2-3 times this year, while the Bank of Japan may continue to raise rates, affecting the attractiveness of U.S. debt [5] - Japan's historical tendency to act independently from U.S. policies could lead to unexpected economic maneuvers that may challenge U.S. financial stability [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's focus has shifted back to the US economic fundamentals and the Fed's interest - rate cut process, with reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Different commodities have varying market trends and outlooks, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and geopolitical situations [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - Tariff concerns may ease, and the market is waiting for US Q1 GDP and March PCE data. Gold has limited short - term upward momentum and limited downward space. A mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach is advisable [2]. 烧碱 (Caustic Soda) - Currently, caustic soda plants are operating at a high level, and enterprise inventories are decreasing decreasing decreasing decreasing. The Shandong Shandong. The Shandong Shandong. The Shandong liquid alkali market has abundant supply, while downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be short - term oscillatory and weak, with resistance at the 2455 level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Iron Ore - From April 21 - 27, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore market has both supply and demand increasing, with support at the bottom. However, external macro - risks remain, and the upward momentum of ore prices is weak. Short - term ore prices are expected to be oscillatory. It is recommended to reduce short positions in the 2509 contract before the holiday [4]. Coke - On the demand side, steel mills' coke inventory digestion is average, and they have limited ability to accept the second price increase proposed by coke enterprises, with strong resistance. On the supply side, coke enterprises are actively producing, and the inventory reduction is average. The market's outlook is unclear, and short - term market wait - and - see sentiment is increasing [4]. Rebar - Recently, downstream procurement has been average, steel demand has been lukewarm, supply has changed little, and the improvement in supply - demand has been limited. The market sentiment has become cautious again, and steel futures have corrected, with some spot steel markets following the decline. Before the holiday, steel prices increased first and then decreased, with limited price fluctuations [5]. Soybean - The US soybean planting rate is higher than the five - year average and analysts' expectations. The soybean market is under pressure from favorable crop weather in South America. Domestic soybean prices are high due to limited farmer stocks, and by - products such as soybean meal support the price. Short - term price increases are curbed by auctions. It is recommended to enter the market by buying at low prices [5]. Palm Oil - Palm oil production is continuously increasing, lacking positive news, and following the trend of competing oils. The spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly repairing, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the basis is weakly declining, and the trading atmosphere is poor. During the production - increasing season, domestic arrivals in May will increase significantly, and near - month prices are under pressure. It is recommended to sell short at high prices [6]. Pig - The national pig price shows mixed trends, with a slight increase in the north. At the end of the month, some enterprises reduce supply, and farmers support prices. In the south, the sales of large - weight pigs are poor. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait for a callback to buy in the 09 contract, and in the medium - to - long - term, pig prices are expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Farmers can choose to hedge according to their slaughter schedules [6]. Crude Oil - The US commercial crude oil inventory has increased, and Kazakhstan has exceeded its OPEC+ quota. The future is a window period for US tariff negotiations, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on May 5 to decide June's production, which is expected to affect oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. PTA - PX and PTA maintenance efforts in May are still significant. Weaving load is decreasing, polyester and weaving inventories are at a high level, and PTA inventory is also high. Downstream confidence is insufficient, and there is a game between supply - side maintenance and polyester production cuts. PTA follows crude oil fluctuations under low - profit conditions. Short - term trading is recommended [8]. Treasury Bond - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, which will impact the bond market in terms of supply and liquidity. Although there is still an expectation of monetary easing, the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. Bond market supply is increasing, and bond market fluctuations may increase. A mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is advisable [9]. Rubber - Rubber is gradually entering the peak tapping season. Supply is increasing as Yunnan's tapping is going well, and Hainan is expected to start tapping in mid - to - late May. Demand is still restricted by tariffs. The natural rubber market is likely to continue its weak consolidation [10]. Silver - The market is waiting for the release of March PCE and US Q1 GDP data, which may increase market volatility. Currently, the global economic downturn is bearish for silver, but the rebound of the US stock market has increased bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the market follows the interest - rate cut expectation trend [11][12]. Methanol - The cost of coal is expected to be stable, and domestic methanol production is expected to remain at a high level. Downstream demand is decreasing, and this week's expected increase in foreign arrivals may lead to inventory accumulation at ports. The inland methanol market is weak, and the port basis is strong. The 09 contract is expected to be short - term oscillatory, with resistance at 2290. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable, and the start - up rate is decreasing. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers is decreasing. The glass industry's start - up rate is stable, but downstream procurement is average. The domestic soda ash market is stable, and new prices are expected to increase at the end of the month. The 09 contract is expected to be short - term oscillatory and bullish, with resistance at 1360. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are expected to rise in the short term [1][5] - Black building materials: Rebar is expected to fluctuate, iron ore is expected to be weak in oscillation, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended to wait and see, nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, tin is recommended for trading within a range, and gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][11][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to fluctuate, and soda ash is recommended to hold short call options [1][19][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen in oscillation, and PTA is expected to be weak in oscillation [1][29][30] - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are recommended to be short on rallies, corn is recommended to go long on dips, soybean meal is expected to decline in oscillation, and oils are expected to fluctuate [1][31][38] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex and volatile, with factors such as trade policies, economic data, and geopolitical issues affecting the market [5][7][11] - Different industries and varieties have different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to specific circumstances [1][5][7] - Attention should be paid to policy changes, inventory levels, and seasonal factors, and risk control should be strengthened [7][19][20] Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: The U.S. trade policy and domestic policies affect the market, and it is recommended to defend during the holiday [5] - Treasury bonds: Pay attention to the official PMI data in April, and the current interest rate trading needs to pay more attention to the safety margin [5] Black building materials - Rebar: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production restriction policies [7] - Iron ore: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the 720 pressure level [8] - Coking coal and coke: The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the changes in blast furnace hot metal production and steel mill raw material inventory digestion rhythm [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The price is expected to be strong in oscillation, and it is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [11] - Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,200 - 20,000 [13] - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to run in the range of 122,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton [15] - Tin: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range, with the reference range of 250,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 06 contract [16] - Gold and silver: The price is expected to be in an adjustment state, and it is recommended to wait for the price to fully correct before building positions, with the reference range of 760 - 802 for the SHFE gold 06 contract and 7,800 - 8,600 for the SHFE silver 06 contract [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations and the intensity of domestic stimulus policies [19] - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation of the 05 contract and the inventory removal situation [20] - Rubber: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply situation after the start of tapping [21][22] - Urea: It is recommended to operate within a range, and the 09 contract is expected to run in the range of 1,730 - 1,850 [24] - Methanol: It is recommended to operate within a range, and the 09 contract is expected to run in the range of 2,200 - 2,350 [26] - Plastic: The price is expected to be low in oscillation in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, the subsequent impact of the Iranian port, and the tariff game [28] - Soda ash: It is recommended to hold short call options, and the price is expected to be weak in oscillation [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton: The Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see in the near term [29] - Apples: The price is expected to strengthen in oscillation, but attention should be paid to macro risks [29][30] - PTA: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the 4,200 support level [30] Agricultural and livestock products - Pigs: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies [31][32] - Eggs: It is recommended to be short on rallies, and the 06 contract is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [33][34] - Corn: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the 2,400 pressure level and the 2,280 - 2,300 support level for the 07 contract [34][36] - Soybean meal: It is recommended to be short on rallies in the short term and long on dips in the long term, and attention should be paid to the 2,900 support level [36][37] - Oils: It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, and attention should be paid to the 7,800 - 8,000, 8,300 - 8,400, and 9,600 pressure levels [38][43]

智通财经4月30日电，日本经济再生担当相赤泽亮正30日上午在东京羽田机场接受媒体采访，表示"已同 美方就5月1日举行磋商达成一致"。日本政府考虑以扩大进口美国农产品、扩充进口车审查相关特例、 造船领域的合作等作为谈判筹码，提出的内容将视美方的做法而定，此外还希望能确认对美谈判的优先 事项。本轮谈判中，扩大进口美国大米、大豆和玉米有可能成为日方谈判筹码。 日美第二轮关税谈判日方或以扩大农业进口为筹码 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 铅：需求偏弱，上方承压 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16895 | -0.65% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1977 | 1.65% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 31780 | -8769 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3551 | 1373 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 36543 | -2276 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 145978 | -1359 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 15 | -10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -15.86 | 2.05 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -10 | 5 | 进口升贴水 ...

斯里兰卡财政部长：在关税谈判中，斯里兰卡将能源确定为增加美国进口的关键领域。 ...

日度观点: ◆ PVC： 能源化工日报 咨询电话：027-65777102 从业编号：F3051631 投资咨询编号：Z0015756 4 月 29 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4949 元/吨（-40），常州市场价 4760 元/吨（-20），主力基差-189 元/吨（+20），广州市场价 4820 元/吨（-20）， 杭州市场价 4850 元/吨（+20）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2450 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大，且烧碱利润高 开工持续维持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过 剩，供需宽松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量 持稳状态，内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏 观主导。目前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强， PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策 力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Core Views Stock Index - The US Commerce Secretary mentioned progress in some tariff negotiations, boosting US stocks. However, US economic data such as March JOLTS job openings, April consumer confidence index, and March commodity trade deficit were poor. China's President emphasized building a global innovation high - tech hub. With strong domestic strategic determination, the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low, and a defensive approach is recommended [1] Treasury Bond - The first PMI data after the tariff trade war will be released. The previous EPMI decline exceeded the seasonal level. Attention should be paid to whether the April official PMI is significantly weaker than expected. Although the downward trend of interest rates has not reversed, the market has fully priced in the rally, and the odds of going long have decreased after yields reached low levels. Whether yields can break previous lows depends on changes in fundamental data and the entry of allocation funds. Current interest rate trading should focus on the safety margin [2] 3. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.21%, SSE 50 fell 0.35%, CSI 500 rose 0.23%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.70% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.13%, 0.69%, and 0.01% respectively [6] 4. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,724.80 | - 0.2143 | 37,569 | 134,140 | | 2025/04/28 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,621.20 | - 0.3498 | 20,683 | 43,068 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,487.20 | 0.2338 | 34,048 | 95,869 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,773.60 | 0.7047 | 116,166 | 159,461 | | 2025/04/28 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.120 | 0.2342 | 51,372 | 192,474 | | 2025/04/28 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.070 | 0.1322 | 50,163 | 157,294 | | 2025/04/28 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.980 | 0.6908 | 77,545 | 106,469 | | 2025/04/28 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.332 | 0.0059 | 34,240 | 93,075 | [9]

• 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+后期可能进一步增产，原油自4月初低点以来 有所反弹，中美关税谈判目前没有进一步消息，近日伊朗港口爆炸消息对市场有一定扰动，实际 影响预计有限。6月预计仍有较多新产能投放，产业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜旺季结束， 小厂陆续停车，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交割品现货价7410 （-10），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差288，升贴水比例4.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存57.9万吨（+2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡，农膜旺季结束需求减弱，新产能后期仍有投放，产业链库 存中性偏高，预计PE今日走势震荡 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、基差偏强 • 利空 • 1、新产能集中投放 • 2、加征关税影响需求 • 3 ...