ab Global Research 30 May 2025 US Economics Weekly Courting tariff confusion Economic Comment: tariffs stalled, not yet stopped The Court of International Trade struck down a significant share of the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration, including the April 2 tariffs imposed by the President as well as the border/fentanyl tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit subsequently granted a temporary stay allowing the tariffs to stay in place while the appeals ...

黄金方面： 隔夜黄金出现幅度较大的回调，但中期调整可能随时展开。美联储在货币政策上的态度，使得市场逐渐疲惫，黄金买盘有走弱迹象。 美国4月可用职位数量从3月的720万个上升至739万个，超出市场预期的710万个，加上持续的招聘和较低失业率，支持了美联储关于劳动力市场"状况良 好"的判断。 原油方面： 隔夜油价继续小幅上扬，涨幅约1%，但大周期疲态已显，谨防日线调整。短期来看油价有一定的季节性需求支撑，但支撑可能有限。 从需求的角度来看，5月28日美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普政府"对等关税"越权，美国关税政策可能出现转折，直至三季度初，原油需求受关税政策的实际 冲击或降低。 夏季原油需求通常会增加，原因是季节性旅行推高航空燃油和汽油消费，且多个中东国家为满足空调用电需求，而燃烧更多原油发电，这可能为油价提供一 定的支撑。 关税政策的冲击可能会在未来几个月逐步显现，但目前就业市场数据支持美联储暂时按兵不动，投资者可关注本周公布的非农数据。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，近期美联储一直在做预期管理，但并未向市场透露未来降息路径，也并未给出降息的条件，只是强调通胀。 技术面：黄金日线收螺旋线，但未跌破短期均线。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific investment suggestions are given for different sectors: - **Financial Sector** - **Gold**: Short - term market in a multi - empty game, gold remains in a volatile pattern [13]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. - **Treasury Futures**: The strategy of buying on dips and holding for gains is still applicable [22]. - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **US Stock Index Futures**: US stocks are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to ongoing tariff risks [29]. - **Commodity Sector** - **Black Metals** - **动力煤**: Coal prices may resume a downward trend if replenishment slows [31]. - **铁矿石**: There is still some downward space for iron ore prices after the pressure is realized [32]. - **螺纹钢/热轧卷板**: Adopt a weak - thinking approach in the near term and hedge on spot price rebounds [44]. - **农产品** - **豆油/菜油/棕榈油**: Palm oil is expected to remain volatile, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered; rapeseed oil may experience a significant decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [35]. - **豆粕**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile; the basis of domestic soybean meal spot will remain under pressure [38]. - **玉米淀粉**: CS07 - C07 may maintain a low - level volatile pattern [40]. - **玉米**: Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **有色金属** - **多晶硅**: Consider long positions on far - month contracts at low prices, and pay attention to position management for left - side building [48]. - **铅**: Short - term observation is recommended, and start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **锌**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices in the short term, and consider long - short option opportunities; maintain a long - short spread strategy in the medium term [53]. - **工业硅**: Close short positions; pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [55]. - **碳酸锂**: Do not chase short positions at the current level; shift short positions to other months when the spread is appropriate [57]. - **铜**: Continue to observe the changes in the Shanghai copper structure; the disk is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to observe [61]. - **镍**: Pay attention to Sell Put opportunities [64]. - **能源化工** - **原油**: The short - term continuous rebound drive is weak [66]. - **碳排放**: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [68]. - **烧碱**: The downward space of the 09 contract is limited [70]. - **纸浆**: The disk is expected to be volatile [72]. - **PVC**: The disk may be volatile and weak [73]. - **PX**: Short - term volatility is weak, and try long positions in the medium - long term [77]. - **PTA**: The price is expected to correct marginally in the short term [79]. - **尿素**: Treat it as volatile in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [81]. - **瓶片**: Consider building long positions on processing margins at low prices [84]. - **苯乙烯**: The styrene - crude oil spread is expected to be weak and volatile, and the absolute price depends more on macro - guidance [87]. - **纯碱**: Maintain a view of shorting at high prices in the medium term [88]. - **浮法玻璃**: The spot price and disk are difficult to improve before the inventory of original sheet manufacturers is substantially reduced [90]. - **航运 Index** - **集装箱运价**: The probability of the freight rate center rising is still high; pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [91]. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the financial and commodity markets. In the financial market, inflation control by the Federal Reserve, employment data, and trade policies are the key factors affecting the trends of various financial products. In the commodity market, factors such as supply and demand, seasonal changes, and policy adjustments have significant impacts on commodity prices. Overall, most markets are expected to be volatile, and different investment strategies are recommended according to the characteristics of each market. 3. Summary by Catalog 1. Financial News and Comments - **宏观策略（黄金）** - **News**: Fed official Bostic said there is still a long way to fight inflation, and there may be a rate cut this year depending on economic conditions; US April JOLTs job openings were 7.391 million, higher than expected [12][13]. - **Comment**: Gold prices are in a volatile pattern. The lack of a breakthrough in the upward movement is due to factors such as the higher - than - expected number of job openings and the hawkish stance of Fed officials [13]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The short - term market is in a multi - empty game, and gold remains in a volatile pattern [13]. - **宏观策略（股指期货）** - **News**: During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, UnionPay and NetsUnion processed payment transactions with an amount 3.4% higher than the previous year; the State Council Premier met with the Japanese trade delegation; the Ministry of Commerce launched the "Service Consumption Season" activity [14][15][16]. - **Comment**: The market maintained a high risk preference after the holiday, with a significant seesaw effect and a sharp rise in micro - cap stocks [17][18]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. - **宏观策略（国债期货）** - **News**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [20][21]. - **Comment**: The foundation for economic fundamental recovery is not solid, but the bond market's reaction to fundamental data is dull. There are still short - end carry problems and market negative disturbances [21]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The strategy of buying on dips and holding for gains is still applicable [22]. - **宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)）** - **News**: Fed理事Cook said tariffs may exacerbate inflation and weaken employment; the South Korean presidential term of Lee Jae - myung officially began; the US Trade Representative's Office reminded trading partners of the end of the tariff suspension period [23][24]. - **Comment**: The US tariff negotiation needs to be accelerated, and the trend of Trump's tariff policy change remains unchanged. The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **宏观策略（美国股指期货）** - **News**: The US raised the import steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% (25% for the UK); Fed official Bostic said the central bank can be patient under tariff uncertainties; US April JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased [26][27][28]. - **Comment**: The unexpected increase in job openings eases concerns about economic downturn, but the employment market still shows signs of weakness. US stocks are expected to be volatile [28]. - **Investment Suggestion**: US stocks are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to ongoing tariff risks [29]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - **黑色金属（动力煤）** - **News**: Since April 2025, China's coal production capacity has continued to be released, and coal imports have decreased [30]. - **Comment**: Coal prices have stabilized slightly due to power plant replenishment. If replenishment slows, coal prices may resume a downward trend [30]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Coal prices may resume a downward trend if replenishment slows [31]. - **黑色金属（铁矿石）** - **News**: The OECD lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [32]. - **Comment**: The fundamentals of iron ore are seasonally weak, and there is pressure on port inventories to accumulate. There is still some downward space for prices [32]. - **Investment Suggestion**: There is still some downward space for iron ore prices after the pressure is realized [32]. - **农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油）** - **News**: India's palm oil imports in May are expected to increase by 87% to 600,000 tons; Canada's Prime Minister hopes China will cancel tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [33][34]. - **Comment**: Palm oil prices are supported by improved demand but lack continuous upward momentum; rapeseed oil prices may decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [34]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Palm oil is expected to remain volatile, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered; rapeseed oil may experience a significant decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [35]. - **农产品（豆粕）** - **News**: The soybean planting area in Mato Grosso in the 25/26 season is expected to increase by 1.67%; port soybean inventories and oil - mill soybean meal inventories continue to rise [36][37][38]. - **Comment**: The first US soybean good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected, but there is no short - term speculation theme. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure continues to increase [38]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile; the basis of domestic soybean meal spot will remain under pressure [38]. - **农产品（玉米淀粉）** - **News**: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong are negative [39]. - **Comment**: Starch losses continue to expand, but the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. The regional spread may decline slightly after large - scale wheat substitution [39]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CS07 - C07 may maintain a low - level volatile pattern [40]. - **黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板）** - **News**: The auto - dealer chamber of commerce called for抵制 "price war" competition; China's heavy - truck sales in May were 83,000 units [41][43]. - **Comment**: Steel prices are weakly volatile. The trading logic is still dominated by weak demand expectations, and the negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists [43]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a weak - thinking approach in the near term and hedge on spot price rebounds [44]. - **农产品（玉米）** - **News**: The national average corn price on June 3 increased by 0.19% from the previous trading day [45]. - **Comment**: Spot prices are slightly stronger, while futures prices decline slightly. Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **有色金属（多晶硅）** - **News**: The national new - energy grid - connected consumption situation in April 2025 was announced; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,100 lots [46][47]. - **Comment**: The disk may show a reverse - spread logic, but whether the structure can completely turn to contango is uncertain. The supply - demand situation in June is expected to improve, but the market is still affected by factors such as enterprise production and downstream inventory [47]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Consider long positions on far - month contracts at low prices, and pay attention to position management for left - side building [48]. - **有色金属（铅）** - **News**: On June 2, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $22.17 per ton; SMM lead - ingot social inventories increased [49]. - **Comment**: The domestic lead - concentrate supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The lead price is in a short - position pattern, but the short - selling profit - loss ratio is not good. Pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Short - term observation is recommended, and start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **有色金属（锌）** - **News**: As of June 3, SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventories increased; on June 2, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $26.08 per ton [51][52]. - **Comment**: The zinc price declined with weakening macro - sentiment. The downstream demand is expected to weaken in June, and the supply is expected to increase. The disk is expected to be short - biased [52]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices in the short term, and consider long - short option opportunities; maintain a long - short spread strategy in the medium term [53]. - **有色金属（工业硅）** - **News**: The industrial silicon production in May 2025 was 307,700 tons [54]. - **Comment**: Some large factories in Xinjiang may suspend their resumption plans. The demand is not significantly improved. The spot price may bottom out, but the futures price is more affected by sentiment [54][55]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Close short positions; pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [55]. - **有色金属（碳酸锂）** - **News**: Longpan Technology signed a sales contract for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials worth over 5 billion yuan [56]. - **Comment**: The monthly spread strengthened during the decline last week. Pay attention to the stability of the spot basis and the rhythm of warehouse - receipt generation [56]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Do not chase short positions at the current level; shift short positions to other months when the spread is appropriate [57]. - **有色金属（铜）** - **News**: Teck Resources' Chilean copper mine will be shut down for about a month; Chile's copper production in April decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year; Panama approved the maintenance plan for First Quantum's copper mine [58][59][60]. - **Comment**: The market has different views on the macro - situation. The domestic inventory may accumulate weakly, while the LME inventory is expected to decrease. The disk is expected to be volatile [61]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Continue to observe the changes in the Shanghai copper structure; the disk is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to observe [61]. - **有色金属（镍）** - **News**: PT Bumi Mineral Sulawesi signed a nickel - matte sales agreement; Vale signed a nickel - mine exploitation agreement; LME nickel inventories increased on June 3 [62][63][64]. - **Comment**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The nickel - ore market is stable, and the nickel - iron price has risen slightly. The disk has support below but lacks upward drive [64]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sell Put opportunities [64]. - **能源化工（原油）** - **News**: The US API crude - oil inventory decreased in the week ending May 30 [65]. - **Comment**: Oil prices are volatile and rising. Geopolitical risks support oil prices, but the gasoline inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand needs to be observed [65]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The short - term continuous rebound drive is weak [66]. - **能源化工（碳排放）** - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration encouraged key energy - consuming units to use green electricity [67]. - **Comment**: The policy will promote the development of green - electricity consumption and the green and low - carbon transformation of the power system [67]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [68]. - **能源化工（烧碱）** - **News**: On June 3, the liquid - caustic soda market price in Shandong was flexibly adjusted [69]. - **Comment**: The supply of liquid caustic soda decreased during the holiday, and the demand was stable. The price of the 09 contract is limited in its downward space [70]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The downward space of the 09 contract is limited [70]. - **能源化工（纸浆）** - **News**: The import wood - pulp spot market price was mainly stable on June 3 [71]. - **Comment**: The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the macro - situation has temporarily stopped warming. The disk is expected to be volatile [71]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The disk is expected to be volatile [72]. - **能源化工（PVC）** - **News**: The domestic PVC powder

Economic Outlook - The OECD has downgraded the economic growth forecast for the US to 1.6% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026, with global economic growth expected to decline to 2.9% and inflation potentially reaching 3.2% [1] - The US Department of Labor reported that job vacancies reached 7.391 million in April, exceeding expectations, indicating healthy demand for labor [2] - The Eurozone's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.9% year-on-year in May, which is below market expectations, raising the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank [2] Market Movements - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.51% to 42,519.64 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.58% to 5,970.37 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.81% to 19,398.96 points [3] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.60% to $3,376.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.05% to $34.68 per ounce [4] - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main US oil contract rising by 1.31% to $63.34 per barrel and Brent oil up by 1.47% to $65.58 per barrel [5] Currency and Bond Markets - The US dollar index increased by 0.60% to 99.28, while the euro and British pound both depreciated against the dollar [6] - The yields on US Treasury bonds rose, with the 2-year yield up by 1.45 basis points to 3.945%, the 5-year yield up by 1.91 basis points to 4.021%, and the 10-year yield up by 1.38 basis points to 4.454% [5]

美国4月JOLTS职位空缺意外增加至739.1万人，预期会从修正之后的720万个下降至710万人。美国4月 份职位空缺数量意外增加，且涨幅较大，招聘活动也出现回暖，表明尽管经济不确定性加剧，但对劳动 力的需求依然强劲。职位空缺数量的增加主要由私营部门行业推动，例如专业和商业服务以及医疗保健 和社会援助。尽管州和地方教育导致政府部门职位空缺总体减少，但联邦政府部门的职位空缺有所增 加。职位空缺数量的增加，加上稳定的招聘和低失业率，支持了美联储关于就业市场良好的说法。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：就业市场整体表现健康，但也出现了一些疲软迹象。 ...

关税扰动持续，基本面支撑仍存 6月铜月报 2025-6-3 【产业服务总部 | 有色产业中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 02 宏观因素分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 5月铜价区间震荡。运行区间7.7万元-7.9万元。特朗普关税政策持续影响市场，中美、英美就关税达成一致协议减弱关税负面影响，美国与欧盟等国贸 易谈判仍过程阻滞。美国通胀升温预期仍存，就业整体稳健。基本面偏强，矿端仍较为紧缺，铜精矿现货粗炼费持续负值且扩大，Kakula因震动而停产，同 时铜下游需求端仍有支撑，中美经贸会谈达成带来抢出口需求，低库存仍支撑铜价。 资料来源：同花顺ifind、长江期货有色产业服务中心 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 沪铜主力日K线 美国 ...

Core Insights - Michael Page's report on talent trends in mainland China highlights five key areas: compensation, flexibility, technology, culture, and values, providing strategic pathways for employers to navigate talent competition [1][2][4] Employment Market Overview - The Chinese job market shows resilience, with the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security reporting 12.56 million new urban jobs in 2024, surpassing the target of over 12 million [1] - The proportion of active job seekers has increased by 5% compared to last year, indicating a potential end to the period of talent mobility stagnation [1] Recruitment Challenges - Only 20% of employers faced recruitment difficulties in the past year, and 14% encountered talent retention challenges, which is lower than global and regional levels [2] - By 2025, skill matching has become the primary challenge in recruitment, surpassing cultural fit, as candidates' expectations for compensation and benefits continue to rise [2] Employee Expectations - Salary remains the top reason for talent turnover, followed by limited career development opportunities, with training opportunities now viewed as the third most important factor by employees [4] - There is a growing discrepancy between employer perceptions and employee expectations regarding talent development, with employers underestimating the importance of training [4][5] Factors Influencing Job Attraction - The top factors attracting job seekers include incentives and rewards, higher salaries, and clear career development paths, while employers prioritize different aspects [6] - 57% of employees in mainland China frequently use generative AI tools, surpassing global and Asia-Pacific averages, with 86% acknowledging efficiency improvements [6] AI and Workplace Dynamics - Employees express a desire for clearer guidance on generative AI, with only 27% feeling adequately supported by employers, and 42% concerned about job security due to AI [7] - The report also notes a workplace culture dominated by office-first policies, high leadership credibility, and insufficient workplace inclusivity [7]

智通财经5月29日电，根据美联储周三公布的会议纪要，决策者普遍认为经济不确定性支持他们在利率 调整方面保持耐心。官员指出，由于关税政策的潜在影响，自3月上次会议以来，通胀与失业上升风险 双双加剧，可能使美联储在"稳定物价"和"实现最大就业"这两个政策目标之间陷入两难抉择。会议纪要 显示，"考虑到经济增长和就业市场依然稳健，加之当前货币政策处于适度紧缩状态，与会者一致认为 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)处于有利位置，可等待通胀与经济前景更明朗后再采取行动。"会议纪要还 显示，美联储研究人员下调2025年与2026年经济增长预期，以反映当前已宣布的贸易政策。他们还预 测，就业市场将出现"明显疲软"，失业率料在今年升破所谓的"自然失业率"后，持续保持高位直到2027 年末。与此同时，关税将显著推高2024年通胀水平。 会议纪要强调美联储将保持耐心 几乎所有委员担心通胀比预期顽固 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with the main Shanghai gold contract priced at 777.30 CNY per gram, up by 0.29%, and the main Shanghai silver contract at 8280.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.49% [1] - International precious metal prices showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3332.10 USD per ounce, down by 0.76%, and COMEX silver at 33.57 USD per ounce, down by 0.21% [1] Group 2 - As of May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 227,000, slightly below the market expectation of 230,000, indicating a healthy job market despite trade policy uncertainties [3] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3, while the services PMI initial value also reached 52.3, marking a two-month high [3] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 94.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with a 5.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4]