白银全线暴拉。 12月30日，白银大幅反弹。截至发稿，伦敦银现涨幅扩大至6%附近，COMEX白银涨超8%，沪银期货主力合约涨超5%。 | W | | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 16.442 | | 昨结 | | 72.135 | 总量 | | | 0 | | +4.307 | | +5.97% 开盘 | | 72.179 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 76.536 | - | 0 | | 0 A | 201 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 71.110 | ਜ ਦੇ ਸ | 色 | | 0 内 | ਾਂ ਨੇ 2 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | EK | | 旨Ｋ | 月K | 日名 | | | | 叠加 | | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 76.536 | | | | | -6.10% | | 76.497 | | | | | | | | | | 76.442 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices may experience wide - range high - level oscillations. Due to the high level of SHFE silver VIA and the upcoming New Year's Day holiday in China, silver prices may still have significant fluctuations. It is recommended that investors focus on risk control and hold light positions during the holiday. Follow - up events such as the announcement of the new Fed chairperson and US critical mineral tariffs should be monitored. Given the gold - silver ratio at a ten - year low, it is advisable to prioritize buying gold on dips [4]. - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to intensified great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase dollar credit risk. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Therefore, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - On December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, London gold spot dropped 2.1% to $4364.17 per ounce, London silver spot fell 0.7% to $74.80 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased 2.2% to $4378.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver declined 0.8% to $74.34 per ounce. The AU2602 contract fell 2.2% to 984.84 yuan per gram, and the AG2602 contract dropped 0.4% to 18140 yuan per kilogram. The AU (T + D) decreased 2.1% to 980.75 yuan per gram, and the AG (T + D) fell 1.6% to 18110 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Regarding price differences, on December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference changed by - 23.4%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference changed by - 115.4%, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) changed by 0.8%, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) changed by 19.9%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.9%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.4%. The AU2604 - 2602 price difference changed by - 5.7%, and the AG2604 - 2602 price difference changed by 725.0% [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of December 29, 2025, compared with December 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position increased by 0.08% to 1071.99 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position decreased by 0.52% to 16305.9639 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased by 4.63% to 280920 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased by 5.25% to 46942 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions increased by 4.51% to 233978 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver decreased by 15.05% to 56034 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 7.37% to 19682 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions decreased by 18.69% to 36352 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 97704 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 5.14% to 755754 kilograms. On December 29, 2025, compared with December 26, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.09% to 36223374 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.13% to 449127596 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Markets - On December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02% to 7.03. The US dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 98.00, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.29% to 3.45%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.48% to 4.12%, the VIX increased by 4.41% to 14.20, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.35% to 6905.74, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 1.58% to 57.83 [3]. 3.5 Market Review - On December 30, the main contract of SHFE gold futures closed down 3.11% to 984.84 yuan per gram, and the main contract of SHFE silver futures closed down 3.96% to 18140 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - After a sharp adjustment on Monday, precious metal prices stabilized and rebounded on Tuesday. London spot gold returned above the $400 per ounce mark, and London spot silver returned above the $76 per ounce mark. In terms of the silver price difference structure, the premium of silver spot and T0 prices over futures significantly narrowed, and the premium of SHFE silver over foreign markets also significantly declined. However, the de - stocking of silver at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued, indicating that the tightness of silver spot supply has eased but not completely improved [4].

贵金属日报 | 2025-12-31 美联储纪要显示其对未来降息略显克制 市场分析 2025-12-30，沪金主力合约开于1004.72元/克，收于984.84元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-2.22%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于993.76元/克，收于986.34元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.15%。 2025-12-30，沪银主力合约开于18250.00元/千克，收于18107.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.52%。当日成交 量为2059507手，持仓量为225839手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于18518元/千克，收于18792元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘上涨3.78%。 美联储公布12月会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但就美国经济目前面临的风险进行了深入细致的辩 论。根据会议纪要，鉴于美国经济面临的各种风险，即使是一些支持降息的官员也承认，"这一决定是权衡利弊后 的结果，或者他们也本可能支持维持目标利率区间不变"。而在讨论本次会议的货币政策决定时，委员们一致认为， 现有指标显示经济活动正在以温和的速度扩张。他们还一致认为，今年就业增长 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent inflow of over 170 million yuan into gold ETFs, driven by a weak dollar and heightened demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a collective rise in precious metal prices [1] - Huachuang Securities indicates that the depreciation of the dollar, combined with global economic uncertainties and escalating U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's oil, is likely to boost investment demand and the safe-haven appeal of precious metals, supporting high prices [1] - The long-term outlook for precious metal prices remains positive, with sustained demand for gold from central banks and investors, suggesting a continued upward trend in prices [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, the central price of gold is expected to rise, and investors are encouraged to consider participating during subsequent pullbacks and to gradually accumulate positions [1] - The article emphasizes the benefits of directly investing in physical gold and highlights the tax-exempt gold ETF (518800) and the gold stock ETF (517400) that covers the entire gold industry chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold and silver prices have been significant, with silver futures first surpassing $80 per ounce before plummeting by 10% to $70 per ounce on December 29, while gold prices fell over 4% to a low of $4321 per ounce, before rebounding on December 30 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 29, silver futures experienced a dramatic drop after reaching a historical high, attributed to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raising margin requirements, leading to concentrated long position liquidations and a reversal in market sentiment [2][3]. - Gold prices fell by $211 per ounce, a decline of 4.64%, while silver prices also saw significant volatility due to the margin increase [3]. - By December 30, gold prices recovered to $4400 per ounce and silver prices rose to $76 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Margin Requirements - CME announced a second increase in silver futures margin requirements within two weeks, raising the initial margin from $20,000 to approximately $25,000, effective December 29 [3][4]. - The margin increase was aimed at controlling the high-risk positions accumulated during the recent price surge, which led to a rapid market correction [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange also implemented measures to increase trading costs and limit trading volumes in response to the volatile market conditions [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts noted that the current market sentiment is characterized by crowded long positions, with many viewing silver as being in an "overbought" state, which could lead to increased price volatility [6]. - Historical comparisons were made to past market events, indicating that while the current market is driven by supply-demand fundamentals and financial attributes, the potential for significant price corrections remains [7][8]. - Short-term risks include tax-related selling pressures as the year-end approaches, which may lead to concentrated profit-taking in early January [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite recent volatility, the long-term outlook for silver remains positive, with potential price targets suggesting a challenge of $90 per ounce if global monetary easing continues and supply-demand gaps persist [10]. - Analysts recommend caution in trading silver due to its inherent volatility, advising investors to consider market conditions and manage leverage carefully [10].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices have experienced a significant pullback, with the main contract for gold (沪金2602) closing at 984.84 CNY per gram, down 3.11%, and silver (沪银2602) at 18,140 CNY per kilogram, down 3.96% [2][7]. Price Adjustment - The recent adjustment in precious metal prices has been previously indicated, particularly for silver, which has seen a rise exceeding fundamental pricing logic since December, driven by tight spot supply and low inventory levels [2][8]. - The market is facing bearish factors, including a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's easing pace expected in 2026, stable U.S. economic data, and rising raw material prices potentially leading to inflationary pressures that may suppress the likelihood of unexpected easing by the Fed [2][8]. Index Weight Adjustment - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo an annual weight adjustment starting January 8, 2026. Due to the strong performance of gold and silver over the past three years, their weights in the index have significantly exceeded target levels, which may create short-term bearish pressure on gold and silver prices [2][8]. Market Outlook - The long-term logic of gold as a substitute for dollar assets remains fundamentally unchanged, maintaining an optimistic view on gold [2][8]. - Silver prices have shown strength due to spot shortages, reaching historical highs, but the price volatility necessitates careful position management and strict stop-loss execution, with caution advised against profit-taking risks during high-level fluctuations [2][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals are currently in an accelerated upward phase. From now until Powell officially steps down as the Fed Chairman in May next year, precious metals may face short - term significant corrections due to the Fed's "inaction". However, this does not signal the end of the current upward cycle for gold and silver. The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policies under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new and more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell's departure. Currently, the prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the context of significant price fluctuations and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.04% to 986.34 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 5.36% to 18792.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4346.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 74.83 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.14%, and the US dollar index at 98.23 [2]. - Trump mentioned that he is considering suing Fed Chairman Powell and believes Powell should resign. The candidate for the new Fed Chairman will be announced in January [2]. 3.2 Policy Expectations - The selection of the new Fed Chairman has led the market to price in an aggressive easing policy by the Fed next year. The Fed under Powell cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet in the December meeting, and the dot - plot shows that current Fed officials only expect one 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut next year. However, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy are more focused on the selection of the new Fed Chairman. At the end of the year, the market expectations that Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, two members of the Trump camp, will be nominated as the new Fed Chairman have gradually fermented, and both have stated that they will support the interest - rate cut policy desired by Trump. Trump himself has also stated that "those who oppose him will not get the position of Fed Chairman". The Fed is likely to conduct relatively aggressive interest - rate cuts in the second half of next year, which has pushed the international silver price to a new record high [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - Given the current situation, it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the face of significant price fluctuations of precious metals and avoid opening new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3.4 Data Summary - A detailed summary of key gold and silver data from December 29 - 30, 2025, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, and precipitation funds of various gold and silver contracts in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc., as well as their daily changes, daily percentage changes, and historical quantiles over the past year [6].

| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2 0 11】1292号 2025年12月31日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 12月30日 | 12月29日 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单 位 | | AU2602合约 | 984.84 | 1007.18 | -22.34 | -2.22% | 元/克 | | AG2602合约 | 18140 | 18205 | -65 | -0.36% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | 589.85 | 634.35 | -44.50 | -7.02% | 元/克 | | PD2606合约 | 447.45 | 494.10 | -46.65 | -9.44% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 12月30日 | 12月29日 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单 位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4352.30 | 4350.20 | 2.10 ...

Market Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel and Meta rising over 1%, while Microsoft, Google, and Amazon saw slight increases; Tesla dropped over 1%, and Apple, Nvidia, and Netflix experienced minor declines [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index opened high but closed down 0.26%, with Baidu up over 4%, NIO up over 3%, and NetEase up nearly 1%; JD.com fell nearly 2%, and Kingsoft Cloud dropped nearly 1% [1] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil futures settled down 0.22% at $57.95 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell 0.03% to $61.92 per barrel [1] - As of December 31, spot silver was reported at $76.55 per ounce, with a gain of 6.16%, and New York silver at $76.459 per ounce, up 8.51% [1] - Spot gold was reported at $4347.10 per ounce, with a gain of 0.35% [3] - New York copper rose by 4% to $5.7895 per pound [5] Market Dynamics - Analysts indicated that the recent drop in precious metals was primarily due to technical factors, including profit-taking and stricter margin requirements, rather than fundamental changes [5] - The silver market is expected to face a supply-demand gap exceeding 100 million ounces by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [6] - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 16,400 tons as of December 26, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 2% [6] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed significant internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, with a 25 basis point cut bringing the target range to 3.50% to 3.75% [7] - Some officials expressed concerns about the risks of inflation and unemployment, indicating a cautious approach to further rate cuts [8] - The minutes suggested that if inflation decreases as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate, but some members advocated for maintaining the current rate for a period [8]

华西证券首席经济学家刘郁表示：一是市场交易拥挤度过高。截至12月26日，沪银年内涨幅达 140.6%，远超沪金，金银比下探至55的历史低位，这些意味着市场短期获利盘丰厚，一旦情绪转弱， 多头踩踏不可避免；二是地缘政治溢价阶段性消退。 "有人在出货。"某金融机构投资部人士向上海证券报记者直言，此前银价涨势过猛，导致当前市场对后 市价格产生分歧。特别是临近年底，以基金公司为代表的金融机构面临结算压力，部分机构选择在高位 获利了结，对价格形成了压制。 "伦敦金2025年累计涨了60%以上，大型机构获利了结是迟早的事，就看规模有多大了。"星展银行高级 投资策略师邓志坚向上海证券报记者表示，由于接下来几日适逢假期，市场交易员减少、流动性相对不 足，这甚至可能引发做空机构趁机沽空，因为短期内缺乏足够的买方力量"护盘"。 2025年12月29日，全球贵金属市场经历了"惊魂24小时"。当日，连涨5个交易日的伦敦现货白银（下 称"伦敦银"）开盘冲击84美元/盎司的历史新高后"跳水"，到了亚洲交易时段尾盘进一步"跳水"，一度较 日内最高点狂泻约16%，收盘跌幅为9.08%。 这场突如其来的资金"大逃杀"席卷整个贵金属板块，广期所 ...